 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, but the comments are quite heated.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Weathercam wrote: |
| Could be an interesting end to the week and huge problems for those arriving / leaving resorts if indeed does go into Saturday. |
Been watching this over the weekend as we're to drive from Milan to Claviere on Saturday... could be an interesting trip!
Should be a great weeks skiing though 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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shoogly, when are the Italians on holiday, this week, next week ?
Just that not seen too many here where I live, 60% of the apartments (6) are owned by Italians
Drive should not be as bad compared to various spots in France? Though do they too all migrate out of the big cities to the mountains?
Going to Turin to pick OH up so might stop off in Claviere at my favorite restaurant Mi Chi
Have a great time in Claviere I love it there, took some Bling friends (Trois Vallees / Verbier etc) there last week and they loved the area.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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yep, first week of march is holidays.
mind you, of the families I know in Italy, the kids ski in race school through winter and school through the summer. Not been to Claviere for the past 3 seasons so am very much looking forward to it 
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Hells Bells, found that as well after I asked the question and did a quick Google 
3.03.2014 - 08.03.2014 Aosta valley, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Campania, Lombardy, Piedmont, Sardinia, South Tyrol, Trentino, Veneto Carnival holiday
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nozawaonsen. Off to Mayrhofen on Thursday, GFS looks pretty warm for the five days I am there (not the end of the world i know) with minimal chance of snow, anything in the other models that might suggest anything different?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, Any thoughts on forecast for Alpe D'Huez from Saturdat please??? Thank you so much for informative posts I watch this thread compulsively from Jan to Mar every year.
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snowmam, only Jan, I start watching it daily from September, you need to show some commitment 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I'd be quite interested in a quick view for the Aosta valley for next week. Seems the GFS ensembles look quite flat. Bergflex is more optimistic, Netweather less. Anyone going to look into the tealeaves?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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BH. 67cms of new snow in the lakes and Pennines by the 5th March! Well be digging at Raise into the summer 
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You know it makes sense.
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Noza-san , Any views on the very warm spell on GFS 46' 7' from c. March 7/8 - I realise its still a way out but when and how would you expect confirmation and is anything concurring in ECM?
Deep respectful bow.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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jbob, i just love the pictures on chamonix.com/meteo.
Expecially the little flags to denote France and italy
And the lightening strike that's gonna take out the town tomorrow.
Simple and concise.
That is my sort of weather forecast.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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What do the swigly lines mean? Should I book a last min trip to the Alps next week or not?
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first week of march should be producing some snow....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Back in January it was suggested here that Snowforecast regularly predicted lotsa snow 6-9 days in the future, and then would downgrade the amount from lots to a little or even none as time moved on.
Well, i've been noticing another odd rather regular downgrading: not of snowfall, but temperature and freezing level.
For the last week or so, the snowforecast for 9 days hence has consistently claimed a freezing level over 3000m, which then falls to 2000m when that day becomes 8 days away, falling again to 1000m at 7 days away.
Seems they've gone from over-optimistic to Dooms-laden.
(Certainly so for Tarentaise - not looked at other areas)
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| Quote: |
falling again to 1000m at 7 days away
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let's hope it keeps doing that, or the second week of March is going to be jolly warm and melty.
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Both GFS and ECM suggest colder weather next week will be followed by much milder weather by the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure develops over the Alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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pam w, I hope that temperature drops for the 2nd week of March. I might have to pack the speedos. eeuugh 
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hedley, looks like it will be rather pleasant spring skiing.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, it could till change but I actually like transformed spring corn. I'm going to need thighs of steel. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| hedley wrote: |
| nozawaonsen, it could till change but I actually like transformed spring corn. I'm going to need thighs of steel. |
Why do you think you need stronger thighs for lovely soft corn?
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It would not surprise me if GFS backed of some from the extent of the mild spell (milder weather looks likely, but perhaps not quite to the extent of some if the individual ensembles in the 12z run).
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You know it makes sense.
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kitenski, I love skiing corn snow, if you just catch it right it can be almost as much fun as powder. I tend to have to really attack it with big GS style turns. I'm pretty fit for my age,but you know that point late in the afternoon when everything just goes to jelly
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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How does "corn" form, from a meteorogical point of view?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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shoogly, not saying that there will be corn snow in a week's time, but the process you need is an extended melt-freeze cycle which transforms the snow crystals. This leads to very hard refrozen snow in the morning and very soft (generally too soft to make use of) snow in the afternoon.
Assuming the sun has been around to warm things up there will be a golden few hours from late morning when the sun has warned that hard frozen snow just enough to produce perfect corn snow. Later in the day it will have softened too far. So there's generally only a few hours when it's at it's best. Aspect also plays a key role in terms of when and how quickly the slops warms.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
shoogly, not saying that there will be corn snow in a week's time, but the process you need is an extended melt-freeze cycle which transforms the snow crystals. This leads to very hard refrozen snow in the morning and very soft (generally too soft to make use of) snow in the afternoon.
Assuming the sun has been around to warm things up there will be a golden few hours from late morning when the sun has warned that hard frozen snow just enough to produce perfect corn snow. Later in the day it will have softened too far. So there's generally only a few hours when it's at it's best. Aspect also plays a key role in terms of when and how quickly the slops warms. |
You also have to take into account altitude, time of year = angle of sun, and as you have mentioned, the most important factor "aspect".
When piste skiing / off piste it is often down to luck when people find spring snow.
All the above criteria are critical factors to take into account when ski touring, you could well end up using ski crampons to climb in the morning depending on slope gradient / route.
Basically we always try and get going by 08:30 and will be descending by around Noon when considering South facing slopes.
In a couple of hours I'm going exploring up the back of me as we have fresh snow all the way down and I want to find a route to get above the tree line.
Viz is not too good and forecast for more snow as you can see from the radar below what's heading my / your way etc
http://europa.buienradar.nl/gmapiframe.aspx?lat=45.0&lon=6.0&zoom=6
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Interesting. Snowforecast Freezing level for La Plagne was just over 3000m for Feb 7th and 8th at 8am this morning.
Now its 2150m and 2650m!
May the process continue 
(actually probably not interesting for most people - only sad obsessional geeks like me)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Jonpim, what you're seeing is the switch at +192 from GFS low res (which tends to exaggerate conditions) and high res.
ZAMG have done an initial round up of winter 2013/14 in Austria.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/zweitwaermster-winter-der-messgeschichte
- Second mildest on record (06/07 being the warmest).
- Stark difference in precipitation between dry north (50-60%) and very wet and snowy south (200-300% and over 400% in places). Worth looking at map at the end of the article.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
| In a couple of hours I'm going exploring up the back of me |
Do you think you might have some time for some skiing after?
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Thank you nozawaonsen, and i'm obviously learning stuff on this thread coz i think I even understand your explanation
That precipitation map on the ZAMG site is certainly dramatic.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Jonpim, what you're seeing is the switch at +192 from GFS low res (which tends to exaggerate conditions) and high res.
ZAMG have done an initial round up of winter 2013/14 in Austria.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/zweitwaermster-winter-der-messgeschichte
- Second mildest on record (06/07 being the warmest).
- Stark difference in precipitation between dry north (50-60%) and very wet and snowy south (200-300% and over 400% in places). Worth looking at map at the end of the article. |
Domo Arigato.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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