 Poster: A snowHead
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Noza, any chance of sticking the ECM run up on here please?
I am out on 9 March and watching this with interest. From what I read from the ECM run I have seen, it's predicting significantly colder and indeed chance of decent snow. This is contradicting both the GFS and control.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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mr_merc, not sure where your seeing the ECM run? I was looking at the charts on Meteociel. This morning's ECM op run is milder than average.
But not AS mild as the GFS op run.
By contrasr the GFS control run (which has some, but not much, support) is 5 to 10C below average in early March.
The trend is still for a milder start to March.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I was trying to interpret what I was seeing from the 240h from ECMWF.int.
I am just desperate, after such a good season, for anything that shows a little bit of snow before/during the week we are in PdS. For the last week it has made for depressingly warm reading.
The control run seems a bit of a freak on the GFS 00z from what I can see, but I'm clinging on!
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I'm pretty sure there is 'always' a warm spell, either in March or February, that get's people panicking about all the snow melting by Easter. Am I imagining this or do other folk concur??
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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kitenski, yup. Sometimes called Spring. 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Yes, haha and I'm aware that it's my own daft fault for booking ski breaks in March and then April (Chamonix) 
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GFS ensemble looks marginally better at 12z, on the basis that any of the variant runs are only under the control and some of the runs look to take it colder and snowier.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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mr_merc,
Hope your right, heading out that weekend too, really want some fresh stuff to play in!
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kitenski, of course if on average the temperature was above average for a period then the average temperature for that period would increase.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Any idea when this Scandanavian high pressure block is going to slip away and let the wet weather back in? It's been a miserable season so far in southwest Norway. Cold and dry might be good for ice skating, but makes the off-psite a tad sketchy!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Little sign of a Scandi high in ECM FI this morning.
Would also see colder weather pushing back into Europe keeping any milder spell pretty short if it played out that way.
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That's what we want to see! I see the GFS is starting to show a change along the same lines as the ECM, with GFS and control dropping well down and chance of snow:
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You know it makes sense.
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That last chart shows the OP and control runs above average from the 3rd March??
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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jimmybog, That chart has updated since mr_merc posted. He was commenting on the 00Z run - I think.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| cad99uk wrote: |
| jimmybog, That chart has updated since mr_merc posted. He was commenting on the 00Z run - I think. |
Aha. Just goes to show that you need to be very wary of charts at that range. They will very likely change with every run that the GFS produces.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@ Jimmy, I was indeed, yes. The GFS and Control have changed back since 00z. Bad times!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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More members are trending colder than the last few days output in FI. Long may this continue seeing as I am going to Meribel for the 4th - 7th! 
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mr_merc, GFS has both an operational run (thick green) and a control run (thick blue).
The last few runs have tended to suggest milder weather if it does come may be pushed back from the start of March.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Sorry Noza, when I said 'GFS', I wasn't referring to the ensemble itself, I meant the actual Op run. My bad!
I guess I'm just clinging on to some hope of fresh when we arrive in PdS on 9 March! Presumably won't know the score until end of next week.
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Pretty cold for the next week, before the start of March sees a return to average temperatures for the time of year and then a split with the operational and a few outliers going cold whilst the rest of the pack goes milder...
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The ECM op run looks to be heading colder from 04 March. The GFS op and the majority of ensembles look milder...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen,
who would you put your money on?
Mitch
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Mitchell, very narrowly ECM, but it's been pretty close recently and GFS has perhaps just been edging it...
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html
The big split comes round 04 March with ECM still backing cooler weather whilst the majority (not all) of the GFS ensemble runs have been looking milder.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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ECM looks to be siding with GFS now with a period of milder weather looking increasingly likely from around 04 March. Colder than average between now and the end of February with seasonal temperatures to start spring.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, milder than average, or mild?
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clarky999, milder than average for early March.
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You know it makes sense.
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It's looks mild but not massively above average for the time of year, still time for things to change in either direction!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| pmercer wrote: |
| It's looks mild but not massively above average for the time of year, still time for things to change in either direction! |
Let's hope so as from what I can see, PdS looks like warm temps and rain w/c 9 march
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, thanks
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This mornings GFS Op run was, once again, very much on the mild side of the ensemble suite after the 4th March...almost an outlier. There is also more scatter from the ensembles this morning with around a third of the members going cold around the 2nd March
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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TheArchitect, yea the GFS operational was at the leading edge of the pack, but I perhaps wouldn't really describe it as an outlier given the control's close support and the proximity of the mean. ECM also continues to support a milder spell this morning, though with colder weather sitting not much further north.
The scatter this weekend is interesting, worth keeping an eye on whether the operational starts to shift that way during the day. The 06z op is suggesting a cold start to Saturday.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Here are the latest ensembles for Ski Amade region. The OP run is now one of the warmest runs from the 7th march onwards. However from this point onwards there are quite a few cold and very cold runs starting to appear which is dropping to mean back down to around average. A warm up does look to be on the cards from the 6th March but as yet it's not looking to be too mild but will still be above average. Also as nozawonsen posted earlier it's looking quite dry across most of the Alps for the next ten days
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1347_ens.png
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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how's it looking in the Megéve area? (Mont Blanc)
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| shoogly wrote: |
It's 2 weeks away!!! Even if the temps are spot on, the rain won't come. How do I know this... because that's the week we're in the alps and the sun goes everywhere I go  |
Ha! Hope you are right as the 12z run seems to point to rain (from 5-13 March) and warmth at 1,500m (7-11 March).
Presumably this will turn to snow higher up, but how much higher one has to get given how high the temperature appears to get is another matter.
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