 Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
ECM suggesting some more serious options in a little over a week.
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"serious" as in substantial snow or "serious" as in the hair drier?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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RetroBod, the ecm chart has low pressure and colder conditions than that off gfs showing high pressure
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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pam w,
Good thinking just purchased pierelli scorpion tyres too
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Pirelli scorpions for a 295/35 21 ouch ouch ouch, you watch the weather change now bright sunshine from the 1st onwards
Mind you latest wiggles for near la Tania show dropping temps and still a chance of heavy snow , feel much better now, will practice with chains just in case
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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phillip33, you could always drive up the road to 1850 just to get your money's worth. 
I changed my car recently and bought the cheapest set of winter tyres I could find (asian brand called Sunny IIRC, at £68 a corner for an 18 inch wheel). Had to drive up the hill in perhaps the worst road conditions I've encountered in the Alps (police were insisting on chains from Bourg St Maurice at 850m for anyone without winter tyres). Despite the conditions they car had no problems whatsoever, so I concluded that even the cheapest of winter tyres knocks spots off a summer tyre and was more than adequate for even the severe conditions we had before Christmas. Don't think I'll go back to paying £200 a corner for Vredsteins in the future, even if I get less mileage out of the cheap set I've bought.
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ECM v GFS the re-match
No contest I'd always go with ECM, GFS throws out some bizarre stuff. ECM called this latest batch that is about to descend and the one before around the 5th of December. GFS just kept showing high pressure dominating (Lazy). 
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Interesting difference between ECM and GFS hopefully ECM will prove correct.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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rob@rar,
And back again ! Dobyou think I will need chains it's a 4x4 q7?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| And back again ! Dobyou think I will need chains it's a 4x4 q7? |
What version of the Scorpions do you have?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The altitude difference between Chamonix at 1000m and the top of the aig. Midi at 3800m seems to produce widely differing differences in temp on different days. Excluding any wind chill factors I have noticed from as little a 4 deg to as much 20 deg. I guess humidity must be a factor but any thoughts on what else and what would be a sound deg per 1000m gained figure to use.
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It depends if there's an inversion or not.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| jbob wrote: |
| The altitude difference between Chamonix at 1000m and the top of the aig. Midi at 3800m seems to produce widely differing differences in temp on different days. Excluding any wind chill factors I have noticed from as little a 4 deg to as much 20 deg. I guess humidity must be a factor but any thoughts on what else and what would be a sound deg per 1000m gained figure to use. |
As you say, it depends how wet/dry the air is.
An average is about 7C per 1000m but local weather conditions (inversion layers etc) will alter the result a lot from day to day.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lapse_rate
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Poster: A snowHead
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| jbob, rule of thumb I use is 1 degree per 100m. |
Beat me to it!
I was taught this rule of thumb when younger but i've never really found it to be true. I think 1C per 150m is usually more accurate.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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musehead, yes, 1 degree per 150m works better in air which isn't dry. But 1º per 100m easier to calculate than 1 degree per 150m
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hmm. I was taught 2°C per 1000' in my early Service days. So that'd be 2°C per 304.8 m, or .66°C/100m so that'd be (just a minute, I'll take off my socks, I've run out of fingers and thumbs) 1° per 150m. Um that's what you said, in the end. Just checking 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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After several clear days tomorrow should see some rather light snow arriving in the northern Alps, fading out in the afternoon. It looks stronger further east.
This though is really just to whet the appetite ahead of the main event arriving around 6/7am on 30 December. Whilst this doesn't look quite as heavy over a short period as the snow before Christmas, it still looks substantial and sustained. Likely heavy snow in the northern Alps on 30/31 December with temperatures rising on New Year's Eve, a pause on New Year's Day with milder temperatures, before cooling and heavy snow again on 02 January.
Beyond that and into FI (and obviously with low confidence), heavy snow from 05 January pretty much through the next week on and off.
That's based on GFS. ECM this morning looked colder and snowier, as it disrupted part of the Polar Vortex.
Here's SLF [28 December].
"Trend for Friday and New Year's Eve
On both days it will be heavily overcast. Accompanied by storm strength northwesterly winds, snowfall down to low altitudes is anticipated, which will be prolonged in western and in northern regions. On New Year's Eve, the snowfall level will ascend up to intermediate altitudes. In the furthermost southern regions it will be partly sunny on both days. The avalanche danger is expected to escalate significantly, particularly in western and northern regions."
And I'd go for roughly 2C per 300m or as other have said 1C per 150m as a rule of thumb.
Boredsurfing, yes.
Incidentally parts of northern Scotland taking a really battering at the moment.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
ECM this morning looked colder and snowier, as it disrupted part of the Polar Vortex.
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Is that over the coming days or further out?
Not too chuffed with the FL's being forecast by snowforecast.com for the next week when we're in Morzine. What's the chances of these coming down a bit...I seem to recall someone saying SF was based on the GFS?
Chamonix-Meteo certainly forecasting lower rain/snow limits. How does the FL and the rain/snow limit correllate to each other, since obviously not necessarily the same.
Ta
Brian
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brianr, ECM looks colder from early next week.
Snowforecast.com derives it's data from the operational run of the GFS model.
As a rule of thumb snow level is about 300m below freezing level (potentially more in heavy snow).
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I like ECM.
Then again, I also like GFS.
But which one is better?
There's only one way to find out !!!!!
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Thanks Noza, appreciated.
Brian
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This evening's ECM takes it cold next week, but doesn't push things as far as this morning's run (and ends up in FI by next weekend, 07 January, with high pressure returning), not a bad run though.
Out west looks like the cavalry may be riding in to town.
A Northern Storm Track
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
"Trend for Friday and New Year's Eve
On both days it will be heavily overcast. Accompanied by storm strength northwesterly winds, snowfall down to low altitudes is anticipated, which will be prolonged in western and in northern regions. |
Just in time for my drive home. Suppose I can't complain about more snow falling.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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rob@rar,
Let you know tomorrow !
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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phillip33, the Scorpion range is very broad, from an eco-friendly Scorpion Verde which I suspect would deflate at the first sight of snow, to the Scorpion Ice & Snow which would no doubt get you up the hill with no faff.
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You know it makes sense.
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Englishised via Bing - mods please delete if this is not allowed.
Good evening
Welcome to this small note weather this Wednesday 28 December day. edited the sources of MF (models) for Rhônes Alpes Auvergne
A change of time occurs very slowly but surely, the imagined scenario already last weekend is held so far, we are heading a zonal situation of West with sometimes higher not too low pressure 1015 hPa but temporarily with isolines tightened and parallel to synonymous with Ecuador to a rapid movement of disturbances.
High pressure to retire gradually or rather leave a temporary gap in to remoteness on the Azores and on continental Europe
We will find on the present case of 3 or 4 days a conducive situation was of good rainfall on the massive concern us (the other also, except the massive located south of Ubaye which will remain dry, yet they would need snow!)
Tomorrow, Thursday, a fine dying disturbance filed a few drops or a few flakes to 600 m, on the volcanoes and 400 to 600 on the Alps of Northern expected not more than 3 cm a La Clusaz to the village as Besse, end of the day, the sky emerges temporarily.
The door is open and the end of night a new disturbance active this time encroaches on volcanoes providing good effective rainfall on the western slopes with snow to 800 m on episode 40 cm of snow expected to 1200m. In middle of day reached rainy body landed on the Alps, by privileging some massive (Chablais, Bauges, Belledonne, Aravis, Beaufortain) with continuous rain to following middle of night. Snow falls to 600 to 800 m and expected 25 to 30 cm of snow around 1500 m on the cited massive, less on the Tarentaise and the Maurienne with 15 to 20à cm to 2000 m.
The temperatures of the season with a + 1 to le Grand Bornand as o la Tour D'AUVERGNE, gradual increase in night.
The first part of night is dry on the Auvergne while disruption of the day is evacuated to the East... not the time to blow, the sky take lights and rain begin on the Auvergne with snow to 1000 m.. d morning workplace is around the Alps to wipe a wet body active and relatively wide but less active than last week. Snow so abundant on the external massifs to 900 and 1200 m late morning. The oceanic sweetness arrives and snow late in the afternoon a all elevations on the Auvergne and 1700 m on the Alps. Expected 30-40 cm on the Aravis to 2000 m less in Tarentaise and much less on the Isère, the temperatures soar and exposed to the best of the day to 1000 m in Savoie 7 ° and 9 ° on the mountains of Cantal.
Sunday, sky loaded and wet snow around 1800 m becoming weakly active end of the day. There is always a gradient of the intensity of the rain in the North to the South and from West to East.
Should better be at Flaine over the Alps two to see the snow falling heavily.
Monday, lagging with lift system refresh and a bit of snow on the Auvergne 1500 m and 1400 m on the Alps
The suite is really very uncertain, the anticyclone is never far
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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red 27, it's probably allowed, but it's gibberish!
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Poster: A snowHead
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pam w, you don't speak Franglais?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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red 27, it's pretty ugly to be honest. Any chance you can remove it?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
a conducive situation was of good rainfall on the massive concern us
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red 27, that's not franglais, it's gibberish. 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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nozawaonsen, don't be jealous - let our gibbering French friend say his peice 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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red 27, I'm not at all. I read his thread from time to time. It's your gibberish translation that is rather on my nerves.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, it is healthy for all of us to be forced to tolerate things that annoy us from time to time.
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rob@rar
Ice and snow and for 1200 quid it's just short of being heli,d up there !
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phillip33, That's a lot of cash for 4 bits of rubber! Decent tyres though, so those plus a 4x4 and you should get through anything without needing to stick on chains.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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red 27
Re above, my chance of a big entry/rant and what do I come in with tyre talk!! I,m going to bed
Noza snow or rain La Tania around 4 frenchie time
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Sorry noza iPad playing up , missed out please and also 2nd jan
Robrar , there,s a saying " a fool .......
Ps if I can't get through without chains, are you free around 4 The 2nd jan , because ive got no chance
Happy new year
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