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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Thursday/Friday snow

Snow pushing into Western Alps tomorrow lunchtime on the French Italian border.

12z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=30#model

Pushing east by evening.

21z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=39#model

In the Arlberg overnight.

03z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=45#model

Across into Austria early morning.

06z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=48#model
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Sunday snow.

Morning arriving on the French side.

09z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=99#model

Evening crossing Tirol.

21z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=111#model
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Temperatures are looking quite high in the central tirol area over the weekend. Roughly what altitude do you think the snow line will be for the above?
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pmercer, taking Mayerhofen as an example snowline on Thursday into Friday looks like being 800-1000m, Rising quite a bit Friday into Saturday, dropping sharply Sunday into Monday down to 1000-600m.
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Thanks nozawaonsen that's reassuring given that most the slopes are above 1500m, thanks as ever for sharing your thoughts.
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Last half hour gone from a few flakes to all out "pukeathon"

Going to try and do a time lapse (again).

You can see the snow falling via the streamingcam from our jardin here http://www.stylealtitude.com/serrechevalierweathercam.html
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I think we now know who mostly populates this thread.....half termers. It's fascinating that there hasn't been a post in almost 48 hours. Where has everyone gone?
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boofit, ?
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Its SOOOOO mild in Tignes right now Sad all that lovely snow trashed in 1 day of wind and high temps.... really hope we get a cold spell and a new layer to cover this one up !
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Austria and Scotland look like doing well out of the snowfall tomorrow and mid week.



High winds in places today.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sat 15-02-14 12:38; edited 1 time in total
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nozawaonsen, Liking the look of that, cheers.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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friday night flight from city airport cancelled due thigh winds
Saturday emergency and expensive dash eurostar and TGV - torrential rain over most of France
Started snowing in Les Collons last night and snowmageddon since about 20cm so far and more than double snow-forecast
Snow levels definitely back to or above normal for this little corner of the 4 Vallees
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nozawaonsen, about bloody time we got our share! Looking good though, it has been raining here at 800m since sometime in the night. I'm just below the sleet level at the moment, but I can occasional see the tops and they are looking good.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Great day in the jura today, pistes that were windscoured and gloopy yesterday (not a great combo) were absolutely epic today, about 25cms of fresh at 1250 metres, a lot more further up. Folks starting their half term breaks today should buy lotto tickets. snowHead
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This is a good link to see precipitation across France

http://meteo05.sepcs.fr/bulletin/pluiese.htm

Down here in Serre have not done as well as elsewhere in France looking at various reports, and speaking to a mate just over the Col (20km) where they had 20-25 where we only had a couple cm.

That said temps now dropping and tis snowing really heavy now (even though been snowing all day) and looking at that rain radar might well be having some more heavier stuff later on, as per forecast actually Puzzled
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Been dumping in Tignes all night and all day.... 15cm last night, I reckon 30cm today. Who knows tonight Happy

But the best news is - NO WIND !!
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Looks a bit icy .....


http://youtube.com/v/vR6Y_9Bz0V8
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nozawaonsen, hiya! Could you possibly give me an idea of what the weather/snow conditions will be like in Saalbach-Hinterglemm from Saturday onwards? I'm hoping for some snow Fri into Sat, but thereafter I think it might be quite warm...!
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HoneyBunny, apologies for not getting back sooner am preoccupied with dancing on tables etc, but yes looks like a moderate fall if snow Friday and Saturday with fair weather and relatively mild temperatures to follow. Not unpleasant at all.
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nozawaonsen, fantastic, thank you. Hope you're having an awesome time (wherever you are), it sounds like it!!
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Is that a cold spell I spot out in FI as March starts on both GFS and ECM????
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Seen A couple of reports of snow due around la Tania area this Friday/ Saturday then a bigger amount due the middle of next week! any truth in these forecasts or they a bit ambitious. Just off the 3V on sunday
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kitenski, I do hope so.
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benpudney wrote:
Seen A couple of reports of snow due around la Tania area this Friday/ Saturday then a bigger amount due the middle of next week! any truth in these forecasts or they a bit ambitious. Just off the 3V on sunday

wetterzentrale http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_645_ens.png seems to think there will be snow tomorrow (Friday) and the 25th/26th. Bergfex seems to think there will be quite a useful fall: http://www.bergfex.com/la-tania/wetter/prognose/ Friday/Saturday nice on Sunday/Monday with snowfall starting around mid tuesday
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A week of winter left.

kitenski, does look like spring might kick off with some colder temperatures.

(Some more considered thoughts to follow in next day or so...)
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Anyone know what model Netweather.tv uses?

It mush have human element to it as its been 100% reliable for 14 days in Tignes so far. Even today. Snow to start, then stop then start again heavy.. spot on.
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Alex A, I think it uses the GFS outputs? Of all the sites I've watched it does seem to be the closest to what we have gotten on arrival.
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The start of March is looking rather encouraging (temps back to normal and some precip), a long way off , but shame as I'm planning on being in the UK by then, could be time to look at flights and earn another green card.

Schladming-ish GFS
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nozawaonsen wrote:
A week of winter left.

The winter is dead -- Long live the winter!!!
wetterzentrale shows decaying temperatures from 1st March onwards, its beginning to look a lot like unspring!

p.s. I assume you mean meteorological winter, astronomical winter (for the UK) has nearly 4 weeks to run.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Fri 21-02-14 20:32; edited 2 times in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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andyrew, when you say wetterzentrale I'm guessing you mean GFS? Wetter (German) is just a website like Meteociel (French) which displays data from the models. But yes there are indications on both ECM and GFS that there'll be a colder start to March. Not clear whether it's a more sustained pattern shift at this stage.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
andyrew, when you say wetterzentrale I'm guessing you mean GFS? Wetter (German) is just a website like Meteociel (French) which displays data from the models. But yes there are indications on both ECM and GFS that there'll be a colder start to March. Not clear whether it's a more sustained pattern shift at this stage.

Sorry, yes, I was just too excited, I didnt even say for where.

Let me clarify. Wetterzentrale http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html shows the GFS ensembles for savoie/haute savoie in France with decreasing temperatures from 1st March, and not particularly mild before that. and as you say meteociel.fr presents the ecmwf and gfs predictions with no particularly balmy period in view.

was that better?
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"p.s. I assume you mean meteorological winter, astronomical winter (for the UK) has nearly 4 weeks to run."

Yep it's a weather thread so the assumption it's meteorological winter I'm referring to is pretty sound.

March still looks line starting on the cooler side, but not convinced yet it is a substantial shift.
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nozawaonsen, Hi hope you had some good skiing!!

Can you tell how accurate the below link is? If right its showing the west as getting the lions share this coming week, is that correct?

http://www.myweather2.com/ski-chart/player.aspx?skichart=22
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neilkav, as far as I can tell, yes. It does seem to have been the South and West that have done batter this year.

Looks like the chance of a nice dump at the end of the week for the western alps.
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coddlesangers, thinking of skiing Jura this Saturday for a day. You any idea if Saturdays are very busy? A lot of queues, etc? I take it you can hire ski s in crozet?
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No real sign of a prolonged cold period, though GFS and ECM both now suggesting colder than average spell from around 03/04 March.



That's slipped back from a couple of days ago and is also still too far off to have great confidence in at this stage.

Snow wise it looks like mid week will bring an end to the current sunny period, but will also bring snow in particular to the French/Italian and Swiss/Italian border. The Aosta Valley looks like it could do well. Further snowfalls seems likely at the end of the week, Friday/Saturday again favouring the western Alps, before more possibly Sunday/Monday this time pushing further east.

Further out March looks relatively unsettled, but that's all FI for now.

In the meantime should be a lovely day tomorrow and a good chance to strut your stuff in the sunshine.

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10196986 wrote:
coddlesangers, thinking of skiing Jura this Saturday for a day. You any idea if Saturdays are very busy? A lot of queues, etc? I take it you can hire ski s in crozet?


You can hire skis under the gondola in crozet, couldn't be easier. It's never all that busy, and saturday less so than sunday, i'd say go for it.
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GFS and ECM continuing to edge away from a significantly colder start to March. Indeed in FI GFS produces a very mild outlier (but being an outlier and FI it isn't worth much at this stage).

Chamonix



The Arlberg



Fresh snow midweek.
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Don't know if anyone saw country file weather on BBC last night - but those lows that are going to give wind and rain again to the UK sweep up from the South again producing very unsettled weather Cool

Should see some snow down Sarf Tuesday and Wednesday, but it was the back end of the week that was looking substantial.

(Charts below will self update)





Could be an interesting end to the week and huge problems for those arriving / leaving resorts if indeed does go into Saturday.
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Interesting piece in Mother Jones about some of the current debate about this winter's extreme weather.

http://m.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/inquiring-minds-jennifer-francis-kevin-trenberth-jet-stream-winter

(Refreshingly free of some of the shrill exchanges that all too frequently dominate the discussion).
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