 Poster: A snowHead
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I echo Pedantica, thank you nozawaonsen for your regular and informative updates
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Indeed, you do a terrific job. Many thanks, and enjoy the mince pies. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, Thanks for all your great posts Happy Christmas enjoy the mince pies
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sun 25-12-11 8:52; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Mind you, if there was still no snow, we'd be moaning like boogery.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to Noz - big thx from one of the hundreds of lurkers. I was so impressed how you made it snow big style as soon as they started building the Wicker-Man for you at Hemmel................truly a weather god !!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Round One to ECM.
GFS 12z has upped considerably the potential snowfall in the eastern Alps on 30 and 31 January (though ECM still keeps it cooler).
And out in FI added more for much of the Alps on 01 to 03 January.
And er... more snow for 05 to 07 January.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Freddie Paellahead, fair point. 30 and 31 December.
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Merry xmas everybody
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Round three to ECM.
Potentially snowy end to 2011 on ECM and GFS now. 29 December in the east, 30/31 December across much of the northern and eastern Alps
Another snowy FI from around 05 January.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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TKO to ECM.
This morning's output suggests the following over the next five days. Confidence over how Saturday and beyond will play out is low, specifically the extent both in quantity and spread of the snowfall.
- Under the influence of high pressure (Cora) mild, sunny and clear weather to dominate over the next three days.
- Thursday: A cold front pushing through on 29 December, cloudier, temperatures dropping and light snow in the eastern Alps.
- Friday: Stronger snowfall (potentially quite heavy) likely in the eastern Alps (although GFS 06z shunted this west to include French Alps).
- New Year's Eve: Starts very cold in the eastern Alps, snow edging out. Temperatures warming through the day. More snow pushing in from the west.
- New Year's Day: Further snow in milder temperatures (freezing levels 1700-1800m+).
In FI more snow pushing through on 03/04 January.
So some fine sunny days to come, but some further snow looks to be over the horizon.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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And a Met Office assessment for UK Winter 2012 "provided to the contingency planning community on behalf of the Cabinet Office."
Contingency Planners
"In the last two winters (2009-10 and 2010-11) protracted spells of severe wintry weather affected the whole of the UK and lasted several weeks. The risk of this happening again, during the current winter, is very low."
"... it is unlikely that the UK will see prolonged spells of severe wintry weather during the remainder of the winter."
"Computer model forecasts from around the world are consistent in predicting higher-than-average surface pressure over southern parts of the UK and lower-than-average pressure north of the UK."
"If westerly flow is dominant, as computer models predict, temperatures across the UK are generally above average. "
"If westerly flow prevails during the winter, northern parts of the UK will bear the brunt of any wintry weather that comes along from time to time. This is what has happened so far through December, which has also been a very 'westerly' month."
"Northwestern parts of the UK are most vulnerable to very wet conditions.
"Pressure pattern forecasts suggest that some very windy interludes are also likely during the January to March period."
Worth underlining that this does not preclude regional variation or indeed specific weather and carries various other caveats on the limitations of it's accuracy.
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Poster: A snowHead
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12z GFS continues the pattern, suggesting that after a couple more days of sunny, relatively mild weather, we could be in for a fairly snowy week in the northern Alps (east and in more recent runs west as well, though I'd want to see the latter showing up in a few more runs for confidence) from Thursday.
Temperatures, cooler from Thursday to Saturday, currently look like they will be slightly above average for the first few days of the New Year.
Ten day precipitation outlook
You can see from the map above how broadly speaking the southern Alps continue to fair less well (although the closer to the borders the better).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Great updates nozawaonsen.
Heading to Flaine on 7th so really hoping the temp does not rise too much and any precipitation that is forecast materializes and falls as snow and not rain
It does appear that the temp swing this season is quite extreme ranging from quite cold to exceptionally warm.
I am not sure on the height measurements these temp models use however, does 850HpA mean 850m above sea level ?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Basically if you are used to the measurement of the millibar(mb), as are most people in the uk, then 1mb = 1hPa.
850hPa is not any particular height, but on average is roughly 1.5km above sea level.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
It does appear that the temp swing this season is quite extreme ranging from quite cold to exceptionally warm.
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yesterday was exceptionally warm for this time of year up at 1600m - was 16 degrees at midday in Les Saisies.  But there was a monster inversion - I drove down to Geneva and the temperature in the valley along the A40 ranged from 0 (ground covered in frost) to 2 degrees. and it was clear overnight, temperatures dropping down well below zero - so I wouldn't worry too much about the snow right now.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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[/quote]
yesterday was exceptionally warm for this time of year up at 1600m - was 16 degrees at midday in Les Saisies. But there was a monster inversion - I drove down to Geneva and the temperature in the valley along the A40 ranged from 0 (ground covered in frost) to 2 degrees. and it was clear overnight, temperatures dropping down well below zero - so I wouldn't worry too much about the snow right now.[/quote]
16! at 1600m is crazy for this time of year !
Better hope that these temps do not last ! or a repeat of last season will be on the cards, it reached 8 degrees at 2300m in La Plange last Jan and the snow conditions where pretty bad to say the least.
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16 degrees? Was that thermometer in the sun? Weather station on my balcony at Arc 1800 recorded a maximum yesterday afternoon of +3.4 degrees. It feels a bit warmer today, and is currently +4 degrees.
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harri20000, 16C sounds quite high to me and as rob@rar, says I wonder if it was taken in the sun? Nevertheless temperatures are mild and sunny for the time of year.
SLF had it at 2C at 2000m yesterday and 5C expected today.
By Thursday though temperatures look like being much cooler. And snow starts arriving. And from 29 December to 05 January it looks pretty snowy. Temperatures fluctuating a bit between slightly above (which could mean rain in lower resorts) to slightly below average. New Year's Day looks relatively mild, with cooler weather either side.
Bourg St Maurice incidentally has so far had 271.1mm of precipitation in December 2011, it's average is 107.2mm. The record is 342.2mm from 1965. If the rain/snow that hits at the end of the month is particularly strong. The record might just be within reach... (looks a bit of a stretch to me, but you never know).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
And a Met Office assessment for UK Winter 2012 "provided to the contingency planning community on behalf of the Cabinet Office."
Contingency Planners |
"Computer model forecasts from around the world are consistent in predicting higher-than-average surface pressure over southern parts of the UK and lower-than-average pressure north of the UK. This setup would lead to a greatly increased frequency of westerly flow."
Hmmm, there's logic Jim but not as I know it. The above two sentences from the UK Met Office are semantically, 'greatly' incompatible and do seem to relate to a 'higher-than-average' corporate desire to 'greatly increase' the emphasis on warmth.
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moffatross, isn't it just another way of saying a positive NAO?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, yes, I agree with that but I just thought that correlating a more something than average likelihood of anything with a greatly increased frequency of something else doesn't make sense. It's the word 'greatly' I have an issue with but perhaps I'm just being too pedantic, cynical or obtuse. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen
What's the likelihood of the Western Alps temps on the 31st/1st coming down a bit?
And are we likely to see much sun between 31st and 5th in PDS?
Brian
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Was that thermometer in the sun?
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no, that was a shade temperature (or at least, I think it was, at the pharmacy, it would have been much higher in the sun) but it was crazy warm. It's less warm today.
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You know it makes sense.
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brianr, overnight 30 to 31 December has been looking cold for a while. Warming up through New Year's Eve then cooling around 02/03 January. Could go up or down a bit between now, but the pattern looks pretty well established (snow line between maybe 1200m and 1500m?).
Snow on Thursday looks light and focussed in the eastern Alps, but heavier across the Alps from Friday through Monday. Tuesday 03 Jan currently looks relatively clear in the west, before the chance of further snow next Wednesday, but the detail for next week has inevitably been shuffling back and forth in recent runs. At this point though I'd be thinking about goggles rather than sunglasses.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I am not sure on the height measurements these temp models use however, does 850HpA mean 850m above sea level ?
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The height on the charts is the altitude at which the pressure is equal to 850hPa. This is roughly 1500m, but does vary a little according to the weather. Sea-level pressure is generally assumed to be 1022hPa.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| stevomcd wrote: |
| Quote: |
I am not sure on the height measurements these temp models use however, does 850HpA mean 850m above sea level ?
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The height on the charts is the altitude at which the pressure is equal to 850hPa. This is roughly 1500m, but does vary a little according to the weather. Sea-level pressure is generally assumed to be 1022hPa. |
Thanks for the explanation.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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snow line between maybe 1200m and 1500m?
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Thanks Noza, I can probably live with that, although I did say at the time we booked that we should've gone higher.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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12z GFS keeps the same basic pattern and brings further snow/rain to the Alps (Eastern Alps in particular) on 04/05 January.
Worth noting more for the pattern than the detail at this stage.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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looks like a handy top up could be imminent
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Anything due for Piemonte?
Sitting here with green fields!!
(sob)
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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adam.b, depends slightly where you mean? The far south no. Elsewhere (especially on the French border) is more likely to do well. That said once again the focus of the coming snowfall is likely to be the northern Alps. It currently looks like parts of Switzerland look like they will see most. The chart below gives a good indication, but don't put too much faith in the numbers.
Accumulated snowfall over next 180 hours
Temperatures are going to go up and down, which could mean rain lower down, but as part of a snow, rain, snow cycle. Winds could be fairly high at times.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 17-01-12 12:57; edited 1 time in total
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Ok I am no w going through the horrible process of fitting the new chains and testing, we are arriving La Tania 2nd jan and even though it looks like the rain/snow limit maybe be above the resort , there,s a little voice in the back of my head telling me if I don't fit and practice.
Believe you me I hate this type of work, in our house I cook and the wife does DIY , but she has put her foot down and determined that s ow chain fitting is a blue job, that's 3 hours of my day gone and no cheeky 9 holes
Unless noza in the next 30 minutes you can confirm to me that there will be no snow
Ps wife also stopped me from going to the local tyre man Mr Benji , was going to bung him a 50 to do it !!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Why, is Mr Benji coming skiing with you? 
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nozawaonsen, ECM V GFS. The Rematch? Can we have some more boxing clips? Loved the last one. 
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