 Poster: A snowHead
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Several models this morning trying to stoke interest in high pressure building over eastern Europe in the distance.
This would mean a colder and drier rather than possibly milder and snowier second week of February...
Hit or stand?
Viva Las Vegas
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Meteo France currently forecasting +13°C at 1550m for one week from now! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nooo please. snow snow snow
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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GFS 12z pushes the potential back to the end of the run... Great... But given how far out it is not a lot to hold on to...
Looks like a weak system still pushing through the Alps later this week.
Completely different set ups each day at present, but the suggestion today that high pressure could keep much of the Atlantic flow far north of the Alps... Let's see if we are in the same place tomorrow... Or whether it has changed again 
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stevomcd, looks from last couple of runs like it could be quite cold next Saturday, then milder Sunday. But a while away yet...
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nozawaonsen, scottish outlook please?
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So not lookind good for grand massif from 5th on then?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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right i,m geting upset now,booked a another ski hol for 19th feb after morzine rain bath in early jan,now what the chuck is going on,no snow no snow then hot,more high why,surely i shouldnt be worried for 3 weeks ahead,my wife is, this is crazy and no way normal,ive got a feeling there,s going to be no snow for a whole month in valdisere(last snow 10/01/2011) NOZA tell me its not going to happen, 2 million people in valdisere rock hard cement and a hospital full of broken bones,tell me not to panic tell me alot can happen in 3 weeks tell me its a nightmare,tell me ive wasted more money on a *rap season,in fact tell me to look forward to my Florida hol in april, unless i want a base tan before i go, this is getting stupid, france without snow,should have gone to Austria,but after reading that thread i wont go there!!!, NOZA give me hope      
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phillip33, think yourself lucky you can go skiing in January, February and Florida in April!!!! 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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phillip33, that said... still sucks to have two cr*ppy weeks of snow... hope it all works out for next month 
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phillip33, I hope it snows in France too - not that I'll be there at half term. It'll be a bit of a disaster for a lot of hard working people, as well as we holidaymakers, if it doesn't. I have to say it defeats me why anybody with a choice would go to Val D'Isere at half term, whatever the snow conditions. 2 million people, you said it yourself.
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You know it makes sense.
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phillip33, dont despair just yet, I too am praying for something before half term with 3 school age children...
however it really is too early to call and there is still hope towards the end of the 12z as nozawaonsen points out:
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I really would not worry too much at this stage. Certainly not about what the weather might be like by the second half of February. The charts are not even showing the start of half term yet. Plenty can change between now and the end of this week let alone three weeks time...
Also looking at the range of models it is clear that there is still no clear consensus on the second week of February BOM (the Australian model) brings cold and snow from the north... NOGAPS the US Naval model, keeps the second week cold...
The models can and will shift a good deal over how the second week looks for the next few days.
This evening this week still looks dry up until Friday with light snowfall possibly moving in at the end of the week. Temperatures will rise gently through the week to slightly above average, before they look like dropping Friday and Saturday then climbing to become quite mild for a few days before dropping by midweek next week. And although it may not be the favoured outcome this evening a number of runs across a number of models still favour snow in the Alps the middle of next week... Maybe...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Ricklovesthepowder, it looks to me like the Scottish mountains will get hit by a fairly significant storm Friday and Saturday. Winds will be very high. Temperatures will rise as the storm comes in meaning it is quite likely to turn to rain for a period, but they will drop quickly seeing more snow come in. I'd keep a close look on local forecasts and warnings. The week after continues unsettled, more snow looks likely later in the week with cooler temperatures. The details are up for grabs. But a stormy weekend is looking very likely.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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So, I am of to Chatel tuesday 8th and if I am very lucky there MAY be some snow that week. 
Christ this is so depressing. I am wondering whether to just scrap it and rebook something else for Austria, I will lose the flight and room deposits and hopefully change the car rental but for the only trip this year it is worth the extra money.
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Tricky 00z this morning. High pressure still looks intent on setting up a continental block preventing most of the Atlantic weather reaching the Alps and temperatures too warm by the weekend. Both GFS control and ECM have a low pressure system heading straight for the French Alps around 10 February.
That's where ECM ends the run. GFS operational sees the block hold sending the low north, the control offers a different FI option with the low ploughing through. You can see it in the ensembles above (the thick blue line). It would however be relatively mild as it arrived if that particular set up verified (though at this range there is little reason to have confidence it would).
06z on the way out...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Tricky 00z this morning. High pressure still looks intent on setting up a continental block preventing most of the Atlantic weather reaching the Alps and temperatures too warm by the weekend. Both GFS control and ECM have a low pressure system heading straight for the French Alps around 10 February.
That's where ECM ends the run. GFS operational sees the block hold sending the low north, the control offers a different FI option with the low ploughing through. You can see it in the ensembles above (the thick blue line). It would however be relatively mild as it arrived if that particular set up verified (though at this range there is little reason to have confidence it would).
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Meaning?
Are they predicting snow?
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A general point. It really is not worth worrying about what the charts look like that far out. Besides the general point that worrying doesn't actually achieve anything, these are just charts being thrown up by computers based on the current set up. Small changes at the start can have significant impact on the output which may well be magnified and not reflect what will happen. Hence the term Fantasy Island. Beyond about a week the best you might hope to pick up is a trend. Sometimes the range can be much shorter.
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Meaning it's anybody's guess. If the LP gets through precipitation might well fall as rain at lower altitudes - some of the forecasts have some high FLs. The last week or so has been saved, in many French resorts, by low temperatures enabling cannons to run, all day in some cases, and helping to preserve the snow generally.
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mheadbee, in the short term no. As for when you are planning to be on holiday then all I would say at this stage is there is considerable uncertainty. I don't think the output over the last two days has been especially promising. It was more so a few days ago and could be again in a few days time.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, classic high pressure blocking, normally takes a fair bit of time to break down?? Is there any historic info around, as I seem to recall previous discussions around blocking HP in Jan/Feb in a fair few years....does that normally mean a snowy March/April, 2004 springs to mind....
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fact tell me to look forward to my Florida hol in april,
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La Nina winters tend to have a sting in the tail. Wouldn't be at all surprised if April is epic this year. That doesn't help though does it 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Peter S, yes April is going to be epic. Hold that thought
nozawaonsen&otherexperts, thanks for continued reporting.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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kitenski, not too sure about how long it would take to shift. We had a signal last week that it would break down at the end of this week. In a sense it does as low pressure sweeps into the UK in the space where the high pressure was, but frustratingly it just goes on to rebuild further east with the jet sweeping over the top.
It also looks like warm air pushes in from the south and it could be a pretty warm weekend coming up late Saturday into Sunday.
The 06z then suggests snow after the middle of next week, but it would be rain lower down...
But to be honest the second week of February has looked cold and snowy, cold and dry, warm and dry, warm and snowy over the last four days. Let's see how it looks in the 12z runs.
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Snow in mid March - should start to lay down a bit of a base for later in the season.
At the moment the conditions are the worst for a generation, the only saving is that a generation ago most resorts didn't have snow canons.
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You know it makes sense.
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davidof, won't exactly help lower resorts if it stays mild and rains next week...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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won't exactly help lower resorts if it stays mild and rains next week...
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if that happens we might get the worst conditions in two generations...
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'd quickly add that although that is a possibility. It is not a probability at this stage!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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aren't we being a bit france(/western alps)-centric here? Bernese Oberland and east looks like it has had a good dump in the last week or so
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Arno, yes, very true.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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nozawaonsen, my next trip is to france so i don't know why i am trying to lift the gloom!
my concern is that even if it does dump big time, the snowpack is so f###ed from its general shallowness and the cold weather that snow stability could be really sketchy for quite some time. in zinal last week it felt like we were skiing on a metre of depth hoar and nothing else in some places 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Arno, you are right that we have become france / western alps centric but the lack of snow, the forthcoming warm weather and many of us going at half term is a bad combination for any thread. Half term may be three weeks away but the pattern on the ground can be very icy now. Iy would take a few days of snow then bashed down by the piste bashers to improve matters greatly when the volume of traffic hits the pistes as the French start their holidays. With no snow forecast and the warm temperatures about to repeat themselves from three weeks ago, if you had not already paid then you might use the money for a different holiday.......
Let's hope the snow does return by about the 12th Feb
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I think the thread just reflects what people have been asking about (depending on where they are going) and it's good to see discussion about Scotland, too. I wonder every year why so many people choose France (and big resorts at that) at half term, as our holiday always coincides with one of the French holidays. There are plenty of other options to consider - and this year, as chrisb says, you wouldn't plan for half term in France if you were starting from here. But it is pretty essential to start planning well in advance for that week, as flights and accommodation get so heavily booked.
Still, there's time for a change in the weather, and for piste skiers, it might not be so bad as some people are fearing. Hope not, anyway.
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I feel like my eyes have just been removed without anaesthetic.........my links to the wzkarten wiggles for Soll seem to have stopped updating.
Anyone help?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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RetroBod, give us a tiny clue as to what URL you are using??
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