Does anybody have paid access to CMC or ECMWF ensembles and care to summarize them?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
[quote="altaski8"]
Ptspeak wrote:
altaski8 wrote:
I don’t really need a liftiie to tell me how to load a lift or line up. It’s just my opinion.
Yeah you do. Really. Lift seats are constantly unused and wasted, adding to larger and longer lift lines. A quad lift should have 4 people on it, not 2... unless there is no line. But I constantly see couples insisting on private rides. And what's worse, you have to really fight for your position in line. Even adults are extremely aggressive in line - there is no courtesy or decently at all. And people are constantly pushing you from behind even when there is nowhere to go. Honestly it's embarrassing.
maybe you need to fork this into another thread? I'm sure lift etiquette is an interesting discussion.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
This:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Ptspeak, the US v Europe catering/lift discussion is great, but can I gently suggest that you open a separate thread for it? It’s an interesting subject just a bit (lot) off topic.
And This:
davidof wrote:
maybe you need to fork this into another thread? I'm sure lift etiquette is an interesting discussion.
I come here during the day for the weather forecasts. I haven't got time to be scrolling through searching for last relevant post. I haven't got time to be posting this either but it needs to be reiterated.
EC monthly again is nothing to get excited about. The same outlook more or less as January deep in to February. Lows going more to the south in the next week, but then back to northern Jet with warm and wet weather in Scandinavia and High above the central parts of the continent. Warmer than normal weather for the whole continent. AO and NAO forecast supports this development. I personally think that the GFS 06 is the best forecast for the next 15 days.
The winter season so far has been really special. Southern Norway should have benefited from this kind of weather set up with lots of lows, like in 2015 and 2008. However, the weather is just too warm (global warming?). Finland has had the warmest January in 100 years. The strong polar vortex has just kept the jet stream in a very strong flow with almost no diversion in Europe so far in January. And dissapointingly, it seems to last into February.
Hopefully, the last part of the winter will change and we will see a southernly jet like in November. I am going on 3 weeks road trip in the Alps in March and was hoping to go to many small places that I have not visited before. But if things are not changing, glacier skiing seems to be the solution in March.
This is much in line with the various medium / long term forecasts (linked to above somewhere before the diversion into catering!), we can hope things might turn out differently but not many grounds for optimism . No doubt this can be attributed to climate change however it is always difficult to separate "weather" from "climate". It needs a number of years to see trends by which time the climate could well have changed again, for instance if the suggested weakening of the North Atlantic Current actually happens then that would have a huge influence on winter weather in north west Europe.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@ alta ,@ noza & co,
I luv this thread, I always feel I learn something here both about the imminent weather & snow , & trying to forecast it, but also meteorology in general, which is mostly over my head (ahem , but which I find fascinating nonetheless.
Keep up the good work!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@nozawaonsen, I think I have been outdone in the pessimism department by some of the posts above . Lack of snow and warmer temperatures doesnt mean nothing to do in the mountains just not so much sliding around on bashed snow. Could also be good for drinking beer on terraces.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Quote:
@ alta ,@ noza & co,
I luv this thread, I always feel I learn something here both about the imminent weather & snow , & trying to forecast it, but also meteorology in general, which is mostly over my head (ahem , but which I find fascinating nonetheless.
Keep up the good work!!
Second this!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Don't post much - ski europe a lot - heading there for a month tom. The recent pessimism is unwarranted.
Should weather come, the early season snow and recent cold will allow conditions to return to excellent quickly (off piste danger elevated for a bit).
Should weather not come pistes remain fine given November, December and the cold of January.
A car helps. I will not comment on lunch or lifts except to say I look forward to both.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Brothergrimm +1 Oh and thanks very much @nozawaonsen for all the effort you put in on this thread i find it very interesting and helpful even though i only understand some of it
Love those old photos you post on here as well though not always sure about some of those outfits!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Brothergrimm wrote:
....The recent pessimism is unwarranted....A car helps...
Yes, a car helps, to speed up global warming and thus the need for driving around ... vicious cycle anyone?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
a train then - get over yourself @onnem
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Brothergrimm wrote:
Don't post much - ski europe a lot - heading there for a month tom. The recent pessimism is unwarranted.
Should weather come, the early season snow and recent cold will allow conditions to return to excellent quickly (off piste danger elevated for a bit).
Should weather not come pistes remain fine given November, December and the cold of January.
A car helps. I will not comment on lunch or lifts except to say I look forward to both.
Thank you!! I needed to hear some positivity. Was almost ready to cancel my ski trip!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I understand that there's a lot of uncertainty in the charts for the coming week (if I've read the tone of the earlier comments correctly), but I can also see that both snowforecast and bergfex have increased the amount of snow they expect from Monday night for La Plagne. Does that mean that they are growing in confidence?
Another positive post for NW alps : This week skied Porte du Soleil (inc Morzine Les Gets), Combloux (Megeve) and Grand Massif (Flaine) - pistes almost perfect no rocks odd brown patch very low in Morzine, some hard packed-usual for Jan. Off piste chalky high up out of sun, lots of soft bumps in the various snow zones. In general i am amazed at the coverage given the minimal recent snowfall albeit a foot last weekend. Will be excellent if further snowfall next week.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Never in doubt. Refreshing to see others refer to ICON and GEM, very good models, along with UKMO
Good 12z GFS, goes for deep cold out into FI (obviously FI so...).
But 28/29 snow continuing to get support.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Brothergrimm wrote:
a train then - get over yourself @onnem
Don't let him know you are taking a plane to get across the pond...
If people are getting depressed about the weather in Europe, just add to the global warming and jump on a flight way West and ski some fine powder in British Columbia, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Montana or Calif. Should be good as storms are forecast to keep on coming into February.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
This is current snowcover across Europe, Mideast and North Africa.
Pretty much every country on the entire continent is below-average, except Turkey.
The landmass of France covered by snow this week is around -60% lower than normal. Ukraine is -90%. Netherlands is -100%.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Whitegold wrote:
lower than normal...Netherlands is -100%.
lol, So you're saying that w/c 20 January Netherlands is usually wall to wall snowed in? I call horse sh** on that one. Fairly typical Dutch scene for late January during the past 20 years.
Apart from that cool story, more snow would be nice. It'll come.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bodeswell wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
lower than normal...Netherlands is -100%.
lol, So you're saying that w/c 20 January Netherlands is usually wall to wall snowed in? I call horse sh** on that one. Fairly typical Dutch scene for late January during the past 20 years.
Apart from that cool story, more snow would be nice. It'll come.
Nice try, but no cigar
Netherlands should be 10-30% snowy in Jan.
It is currently 0%.
The photo is today from (nearby) Belgium's biggest and highest ski resort, Val de Wanne.
It is completely green, even on the tallest peaks.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
"tallest peaks" in Netherlands
the highest elevation is just over 300m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaalserberg) and you can hardly call it a peak...a bump maybe, but not a peak...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Whitegold, nice try indeed...your map is one day in January not the whole of January, which isn't even finished yet. And 10-30% is not the whole of the Netherlands.
Those areas might end up 100% down not the whole country.
Still, there's always Landgraaf if there's not enough snow in the Utrecht hills
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Very similar to patterns we saw in mid eighties, which is why I jumped ship to the US. Europe has been surprisingly good to me since 2008 but the pattern are very similar. Sole repair anyone?
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The sun was setting over the gallows... deep red and gold... a bead of sweat fell into @Whitegold’s eye, he blinked it back... blinked it back twice... why was he sweating so much?... at the other end of the street the silhouetted figure spat out his cigar and reached for his gun... @Whitegold, snatched his Colt 45 from it’s holster... but... but... he pulled out a... banana??... Not just a banana... but... a Belgian banana... he looked back up the street... too late... too late... why? why had he turned up with a Belgian banana???... the sun disappeared behind the hill... one shot echoed across the town... the grave digger finished his drink and saddled his horse...
Liverpool has 100% less snow than 12 years ago this week. Ski bookings down dramatically, but still higher than Belgium at its peak. (Cannot get the Liverpool Echo to run this story)
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen, I've been on Snowheads site for 12 ski seasons now - following weather & snow patterns with eager anticipation along with everyone else........& had waist deep powder, sheet ice & torrential rain at all resorts/all altitudes over that period, but the one voice that seems to eclipse all others is your goodself. Incredibly knowledgeable, factual, & every now & again... hilarious - thank you. Heading out to Les Arcs on Sunday &, as always, looking forward to the mountains whatever they may deliver. Always amazing.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Bodeswell wrote:
@Whitegold, nice try indeed...your map is one day in January not the whole of January, which isn't even finished yet. And 10-30% is not the whole of the Netherlands.
Those areas might end up 100% down not the whole country.
Lol.
Guessing math is not your strong point.
Check the red line.
Zero for the whole winter
After all it is free
After all it is free
US is the place to head.
As always, West is best.
Jackson Hole got pounded with a record 11 feet of neige in 2 weeks.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Looking increasingly snowy, but also windy, for midweek in the NW alps! Looking forward to some tree skiing! Did you pack your wide skis horgand?
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Latest snow snapshot.
Ensembles showing a potential cold shift around 04/05 February. Has shown up in last three GEFS runs, but ECM not buying it yet.
@staffsan, agree that as this arrives in the western Alps it looks likely to be accompanied with strong winds.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
. No doubt this can be attributed to climate change however it is always difficult to separate "weather" from "climate". It needs a number of years to see trends by which time the climate could well have changed again, for instance if the suggested weakening of the North Atlantic Current actually happens then that would have a huge influence on winter weather in north west Europe.
, but which I find fascinating nonetheless.
. Lack of snow and warmer temperatures doesnt mean nothing to do in the mountains just not so much sliding around on bashed snow. Could also be good for drinking beer on terraces.
and thus the need for driving around ... vicious cycle anyone?
