 Poster: A snowHead
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| 2planks wrote: |
What we want is 10-20 inches every night |
Ooooh, matron !!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
Little Martin
super-snowHead
Posts: 895
Location: Mount Hemel
anyone know what value sacrificing the mother in law is in terms of snow, she's coming to stay today...
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To be honest I wouldn't make it snow related, I would just do it anyway. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It's snowing in Clash of Clans, not sure where that is tho...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Mine died a while ago and is probably organising this lack of snow from her grave. Breathing fire and vitriol over the Alps just like the dragon she always was. Bless her!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Quite a few of the snow forecast sites are starting to show something positive for France (i'm particularly interested in Alpe D'Huez) from 1/2 Jan. Hard not to get excited as I fly out on the 7th. But then I remember a couple of weeks ago it was supposed to be bucketing down the next couple of days.
Keeping everything crossed!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@rutlandchris, those sites really are not that helpful at this range.
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3b meteo showing temperatures as low as -23 in the new year for Cervinia.
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| rutlandchris wrote: |
Quite a few of the snow forecast sites are starting to show something positive for France (i'm particularly interested in Alpe D'Huez) from 1/2 Jan. Hard not to get excited as I fly out on the 7th. But then I remember a couple of weeks ago it was supposed to be bucketing down the next couple of days.
Keeping everything crossed! |
That's based on GFS pretty sure.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @rutlandchris, those sites really are not that helpful at this range. |
Well said!!
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@Jellybeans1000, yes the vast majority just represent the GFS op run. But given how much that switches and changes on each run at that range it is of very marginal use.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Pretty sure Yr.no represents EC, can't really guarantee much accuracy for just GFS based forecasts beyond 7 days.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Jellybeans1000, agreed.
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Long term: a real storm?
There finally is a real storm on the maps for the beginning of 2017. When this actually happens we can say goodbye to almost six weeks of high pressure without snowfall and high temperatures. Something in the atmosphere should change in the week of the 2nd of January and we can get ready for lots of PowderAlerts. Finally...
courtesy of wepowder
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @rutlandchris, those sites really are not that helpful at this range. |
They are for my expectation and excitement level - I'll leave others to worry about the statistical accuracy etc
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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06z GFS continues the FI pattern bringing snow across the northern Alps on 2/3 January and again on 08 January. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the dates and certainly not to any quantities that might start cropping up on websites at this stage. But with this now starting to recur on both GFS and ECM it is certainly something worth watching. If it continues to occur confidence increases. It is stutters confidence decreases.
Edited to the add the word "snow".
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Fri 23-12-16 12:34; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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Matt Hugo on EC32.
"EC monthly maintains high pressure signal to the W or NW into early Jan, signal thereafter still for high pressure but indeterminate output."
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Atlantic / European jetstream is still in a funny place and stuck there.
Little fresh snow until January. |
As predicted, 2-3 weeks ago.
The Alps is mostly snowfree until next year.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Whitegold, wow.
Well I reckon it can only mean one of two things.
Either you have developed an unerring ability to foresee the weather with extraordinary accuracy way beyond what is currently possible even with the most powerful super computers and must surely be about to reap your reward in wealth and fame far exceeding the imagination of ordinary men and women.
Or...
You took a wild guess based on nothing in particular and (even before it has even happened) are now trying to use this to impress yourself.
To be honest it's kind of hard to tell between one or the other possibility. But it's definitely one and not the other. Well done.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Noza, if you were a rock band I'd come to all your gigs!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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So would I but I wouldn't throw my knickers at you. (Unless Whitegold was guaranteeing warm weather).
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So. Arrived in mottaret this afternoon.. the pistes look OK, nothing else anywhere around.. very brown .. first day on the mountain is tomorrow so will know more after that. I reckon up at tougnete and over in val t it will be lovely.
Interestingly, a couple of forecasts have surprised me with a mm or two tomorrow evening, seemingly from nowhere.. we'll see.
Oh. And there is plenty of beer here..
Merry Christmas!
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| Quote: |
Oh. And there is plenty of beer here..
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Beer skiing anyone? - gotta be better than water skiing 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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WePowder is still talking about a Stau hitting north eastern Austria (40+ cm). Wish that would move west. My mother-in-law is a big windbag so I'll see what she can do.
And on another note for those on Instagram this is good for a laugh -- great old photos and funny captions: https://www.instagram.com/theapresski/
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
Atlantic / European jetstream is still in a funny place and stuck there.
Little fresh snow until January. |
As predicted, 2-3 weeks ago.
The Alps is mostly snowfree until next year. |
I predicted "Significant snowfall sometime late in December pretty much guaranteed". Don't I look a fool!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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So Nozawaonsen are you saying that GFS has snow early January but not EC? So still no long term confidence?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Anyone have any thoughts on the snow total predictions for western Austria at the moment. Arlberg resorts are forecast up to 15cm on snow-forecast, Ischgl about 10cm, and Serfaus only 2cm. This is despite GFS and ECM runs that show similar snow over the whole area, and the fact that Ischgl is South-West of Serfaus, and equally shielded from the North, so "shouldn't" on the face of it have such an advantage.
I realise the Nordstau has an advantage, maybe a significant one, but does anyone have personal experience of this area, of the relevant local forecasts etc.? Does this ring true, or is it possibly the case that the (presumably higher resolution) models used by the forecast sites are drawing unrealistically sharp snow boundaries?
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| WellingtonBoot wrote: |
Anyone have any thoughts on the snow total predictions for western Austria at the moment. Arlberg resorts are forecast up to 15cm on snow-forecast, Ischgl about 10cm, and Serfaus only 2cm. This is despite GFS and ECM runs that show similar snow over the whole area, and the fact that Ischgl is South-West of Serfaus, and equally shielded from the North, so "shouldn't" on the face of it have such an advantage.
I realise the Nordstau has an advantage, maybe a significant one, but does anyone have personal experience of this area, of the relevant local forecasts etc.? Does this ring true, or is it possibly the case that the (presumably higher resolution) models used by the forecast sites are drawing unrealistically sharp snow boundaries? |
Rings true to me (though I have little experience of Serfaus) generally: Arlberg seems to get at least 20% more snow (from any direction other than south) than Ischgl or the Montafon resorts.
I can't speak to Serfaus, but it is known as a drier region. Also if you look at google maps there's significantly more upland/mountainous terrain north of Serfaus than Ischgl (though I've no idea of the relative height of that terrain).
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You know it makes sense.
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@Raven, to your first question no I am not saying that. To your second question no, we are talking about events 10-15 days in the future, so no meaningful confidence will be possible for several days at least.
GFS 12z continues the broad FI pattern.
@WellingtonBoot, GFS gets a bit flakey close in. I'd switch to WRF. Generally the Arlberg tends to pick up a lot of snowfall.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Whitegold, wow.
Well I reckon it can only mean one of two things.
Either you have developed an unerring ability to foresee the weather with extraordinary accuracy way beyond what is currently possible even with the most powerful super computers and must surely be about to reap your reward in wealth and fame far exceeding the imagination of ordinary men and women.
Or...
You took a wild guess based on nothing in particular and (even before it has even happened) are now trying to use this to impress yourself.
To be honest it's kind of hard to tell between one or the other possibility. But it's definitely one and not the other. Well done. |
It was pure skill, son
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Your only skill is to be quite possibly the silliest sausage on the whole internet.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Chadspurs40, fly out to mottaret in morning so good to hear that news..
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Golly. Just dropped briefly into this thread (having skied some super snow on deserted pistes below 2000m in the northern French alps today, in glorious sunshine, under the snowcapped peaks of the Mont Blanc massif) to find people throwing their knickers at Whitegold.
Wot's going on?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I would never throw my knickers at Whitegold!😐
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@WellingtonBoot, Serfaus usually is much drier than St Anton and Ischgl. That said, Serfaus village is high for Austria so there usually is snow in the village but not a lot. A great family resort but not a powder destination
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@esaw1, +1 - Noza on the other hand.......
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snow fall in northern Austria is limited to around 10-15cm for the upper slopes the next five days. High temperatures and strong winds will spoil the party.
http://skiweather.eu/snowforecast/lt/
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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For comparison, some historic data from les Contamines (lescontamines.net)
Etape - 1450m
Ruelle - 1650m
Signal - 1880m
Aiguille - 2300m
23/12/2016: 0 10 10 20
23/12/2015: 5 10 20 30
23/12/2014: 15 10 25 40
23/12/2013: 15 25 35 45
23/12/2012: 75 95 160 195
23/12/2011: 100 120 160 200
23/12/2010: 35 40 70 120
23/12/2009: 35 45 80 140
23/12/2008: 55 55 95 115
23/12/2007: 55 55 120 150
23/12/2006: 10 - 30 40
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FAQ
