 Poster: A snowHead
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Sorry didn't see that there doh! 
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brian
brian
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Everything backing away from snow today. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Quick glance at 12z GFS. Looks to me like some rather decent snow into the Pyrenees tonight and the Italian side of the Milk Way looks like it could do well tomorrow. Less clear how the French Alps will fair. Looking less likely to be snowy tomorrow right now.
Looking at FI all sorts of things crashing about (including temperatures). Very hard to pick anything and likely to be for a while yet. Where there has been a consistent trend developing over the last 48 hours or so is for the precipitation mean to start picking up the pace from the end of next week, the period 05 to 07 February [edit: and building from there through the rest of the run]. This will start moving into hi res over the next few runs which may help to start fill in the picture a little.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Fri 28-01-11 21:10; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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MoodyFFS,
Cheers, but could you do me a linky thing to click on that keeps updating
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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thursday next week , keep the faith my friend
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Just to show how FI operational runs swing back and forth here is:
12z GFS operational +348 High pressure over Europe.
18z GFS operational +348 Low pressure over Europe.
Anyway no point worrying about the detail. Just illustrating that the trend in the ensembles is likely to be a more useful guide than a particular individual run (at least until it gets closer in!).
So having said that... 18z operational was much snowier than 12z GFS! 
[and possibly just a little snowier in southern parts of the French Alps tomorrow than it looked earlier this evening.]
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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moffatross west of Scotland looks like it's going to take the brunt... Could be some pretty wild winds too... And a lot of snow too...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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moffatross, where are you getting those graphs from? Me likey...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, when are the "wild" winds expected... I am heading up to the 'gorm next weekend 
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moffatross, those wiggleys look a bit craaazy - could it lead to one of those awesome powder fests in the west I wonder!
How about further east, much precipitation?
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, yes it could be pretty wild but those high winds won't do any harm at all in the sense of laying down an enormous base for skiing (if the GFS stays on track). The snowpack may become rather scary from an avanlanche perspective though because it'll be whipping around in different directions from one day to the next and nowhere will be immune to windslab up high as it drifts about.
MoodyFFS, the GFS clickable ensembles are here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1. Change the run time & fine tune the lat/long in this URL (Aviemore) ...
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=57.2&lon=-3.8&runpara=0
roga, here's Aviemore. Very respectable but quite so gobsmacking.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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moffatross, thanks for that - as you say not quite as gobsmacking but there's a better base at Cairngorm anyway so we don't need as much
Let's hope these charts verify!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Why is the big green line sitting on top of all the other runs from the 5th? What does it know that the others dont?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mattmulkeen, it's a mild outlier.
The FI picture remains unclear for the Alps. The mean (the average of all the runs) is suggesting a trend to average or just below average temperatures and snow. The operational is showing mild temperatures with very little snow. There is also a risk that there could be warm temperatures and rain. And potentially cooler temperatures with very large amounts of snow. The pattern change remains likely, but what that change is to is less clear. I would expect temperatures to be warmer than they were last week however.
Whilst some of the runs indicate the uncertainty of the outcome, given the range and the way the operational run is switching back and forth I would focus more on the trend. For now.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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MoodyFFS, looks like it could be quite blowy in Scotland next weekend.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sun 30-01-11 9:00; edited 4 times in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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06z strong set of ensembles.
Strong operational run.
Of mild interest that it again introduces a lot of snow across much of the Alps, particularly into the French Alps, around 09 February...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
06z strong set of ensembles.
Strong operational run.
Of mild interest that it again introduces a lot of snow across much of the Alps, particularly into the French Alps, around 09 February... |
ive tried getting these ensembles ,what is the website please
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That wind could blow the snow in to all the right places although I think it would take the operators a while to dig out the lifts!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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phillip33, I'm not too sure what you mean? 
The possibility of this is quite clearly "predicted" on the latest GFS operational run.
The possibility of snow from the end of this week has been showing up since last Sunday evening.
The chance of light snow on Monday into Tuesday was showing up on Thursday evening's runs too.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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moffatross, and that could just be the beginning...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Quick glance at 12z GFS operational as it came through. Looked like the potential for some snow in French Alps, possibly reaching up to Valais, tonight into tomorrow and possibly Monday into Tuesday (certainly stronger than it was looking a day or two ago, signal growing over the last few runs as phillip33 mentioned above). Certainly looking snowy on the Italian side of the Milky Way tomorrow and Monday and possibly reaching across to the Dolomites Sunday evening...
WRF might shine some more light later.
End of the week looked clearer in this run (and each run is shifting quite a lot at present, the detail changes, the theme remains), but only the prelude to potentially heavy snow the week after... Temperatures will need watching...
[edit: looks to me like WRF keeps any snow tonight and tomorrow pinned behind the Ligurian Alps rather than spilling across into France, if any did make it looks like it would be very light... Will find out soon enough...]
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ligurian alps ? excuse my ignorance but are they close to valdisere as i know valdisere shares some mountains with italy, i remember once i think at xmas 2006 when it snowed in italy dropped 50 cms on valdisere and no where else, what do you think the chances are of that happening again, re temperatures i agree i think the snow line for the next preciptation will be high,although i,m going to Valdisere so should be ok
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You know it makes sense.
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Not too far. The Ligurian Alps form part of the border between France and Italy reaching south. The weather in that part of the Alps over the next few days is being driven by a low pressure system moving through the Mediterranean. As it moves through east it is sweeping snow back west. However, it looks to me from the WRF forecast like it has difficulties getting back over the mountains and so stays on the east side. Good if you are heading out to the Italian Milky Way.
But this close in models will always struggle to predict what is inherently going to be so heavily influenced by local conditions which can shift at short notice, especially in the mountains.
On temperatures my point is only that as the weather pattern looks increasingly likely to shift next week it carries the risk that temperatures could bring rain ahead of snow at times at lower altitude. This was looking less likely from the 06z, slightly more so from the 12z. I would expect it will continue to shift back and forth for a little while yet.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I wish I was going to the Milky Way...............................in 12 HOURS !!!!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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moffatross, Thanks a million, I have been looking for the clickable link.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, any new snow for Switzerland (Jungfrau Region) over the weekend ?? (thanks by the way...doing a great job)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, What's the outlook for Zell am See next week so far please? Seems the GFS operational is shifting significantly on temps and precip. Cheers.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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(sorry meant week of 5th Feb. Wishful thinking!!!!!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Chris Brookes, no, not really, nor for most of next week, which looks dry and quite sunny at times with high pressure still in charge.
What snow does fall tomorrow as a low passes through the Mediterranean looks most likely to be focussed around the North East of Italy and the Pyrenees.
So over the rest of the weekend along with the Pyrenees, it looks like snow for the Italian Milky Way, reaching up into the Aosta Valley, possibly just reaching Zermatt and maybe even Andermatt - though what made it through would likely be very light. Some suggestions parts of France might get some, I'm less sure...
Mattb, no chance of getting any really clear picture for that week for another few days. Unsettled and potentially rather snowy would be a good start point. There is though a clear trend for a pattern shift building, even likely now (though still time for it to change again). At present there looks like being a good potential for snow to start falling across the Alps at some point between 05 to 07 February (slightly shifting backwards at the moment which can happen).
There is a fairly consistent signal for heavy snow to fall across the Alps around Tuesday 08 or Wednesday 09 February. Which is well worth watching (though despite apparent consistency at this stage, it is certainly far enough away to melt into nothing as we draw closer...)
There is not, however, a consistent pattern for temperatures that week, with high temperatures and low temperatures jockeying for position, though as low pressure from the Atlantic drives in it would not be a surprise at all to see it arriving as rain at lower altitudes, followed by snow. Any detail on that will not be clear for a while.
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nozawaonsen Thats some impressive meteorological knowledge. I will be hanging off of your words for the nextr week before heading to La Plagne on the 5th Feb!!
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Thanksnozawaonsen, 
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nozawaonsen, Any chance of this reaching the Monterosa area?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This is a WRF chart for accumulated precipitation in France between midnight last night and midday tomorrow. Pretty light overall, most of what there is on the Italian side. The Tarentaise, may get a little, Monterosa a little more.
I'm off in search of marmalade...
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| Quote: |
I'm off in search of marmalade...
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I made some magnificent high fruit Seville orange marmalade last night. If you were close by I'd give you a jar in return for all these forecasts. 
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