 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
@dannyboy23, @franga, if you get a south east wind/foehn blowing over the main alpine ridge into the Tarentaise/Savoie it will stop the front getting in . You could be in say Les Arcs looking at angry clouds to the South west/Maurianne valley and to the East Italy/Aosta but in a hole where the precipitation clouds just don’t get to . This does happen often when the weather comes from that direction .
If you play this precipitation prediction timeframe of the GFS you will notice a dry hole till Sunday the 11th . Below
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/3h.htm |
Nice intel.
I’m going to hope the opposite occurs 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I’m not seeing temps low enough for widespread snow until 12th ish for NW alps. So that means more rain to come before then for many 
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The colder temperatures do seem to be being pushed back a bit. Not checked all the complicated graphs I am starting to learn to interpret. But I have always found Meteoblue quite reliable. And it shows max of 4 degrees on Friday in Champoluc. And the bulk of the precipitation that night when it is colder. I guess some chance of rain showers on Thursday/Friday at village level.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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A quote from one of the more respected amateur meteorologists I follow on X this morning this is for the UK but it’s the general theme .
Less than a week ago people were saying winter was over. And now?
European model increasingly introducing colder E’ly flows as the pattern corrects further south, this brings a higher risk of snow further south and east, more into early following week.
Winter is far from done yet. Perhaps it’s leaving the best to last, which would not be unsurprising aligning with seasonal models and general more backloaded nature of El Niño winters.
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Wasn't that the prediction in advance? Cold and snowy Feb?
Pretty sure it was said above
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GFS just now looks very promising for the entire Alps. 0.5m of snow from Sunday 11th, another big dump from Saturday 17th, then very low temperatures.
If this pans out, could be some great skiing for several weeks.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@8611, yes That was wishful thinking from me with a little long range and far out mixed in , but as you know most don’t trust these , the long range had been pointing to back loaded winter also L’ve a bit of a gut feel that we are long overdue a decent Feb ……we shall see
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| Dashed wrote: |
| I’m not seeing temps low enough for widespread snow until 12th ish for NW alps. So that means more rain to come before then for many |
Snow coming for mid to high levels.
More rain ahead for lower NW Alps resorts next weekend.
The January and February heatwaves have been relentless.
Around 25-30% of ski centers across Europe are currently closed at lower altitudes (e.g. Swiss Jura, Pyrenees, etc.).
Spain has seen 30-40% of all its snow melt away in the past 2 weeks.
Andorra, Pyrenees, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, and France are suffering bad
Scotland is grim.
Eastern Europe is mixed.
Austria is in the best shape of all. It avoided some of the heat. Few resorts closed.
Scandinavia also has good snow at the moment.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/mild-weather-melts-snow-swiss-184437337.html
This is Dent-de-Vaulion, in Switzerland, at 1400m, a few days ago.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Sun 4-02-24 19:42; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Funny how I knew who posted the above, without even seeing the username 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Whitegold, you should really come to the Birthday Bash once.
And ski on decent on piste snow all week.
Even today.
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You know it makes sense.
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@under a new name, and we’ve had a belting week in PdS - local FB groups full of people who are coming out in a couple of weeks asking if they should cancel. Yes, yes you should and leave the snow for the rest of us.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The best thing to do is to use the ignore function of you know who and if nobody quotes any posts then all is good
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sun 4-02-24 19:54; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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I had a surprisingly fantastic day today at Pila. Great piste skiing on good cover.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@under a new name, stop tagging him and he’ll get bored and go away
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| drporat wrote: |
@Whitegold, you should really come to the Birthday Bash once.
And ski on decent on piste snow all week.
Even today.
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Good photos.
Happy 20th birthday to SH.
2004-2024.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Heading to Sunshine/Revelstoke/Lake Louise in 3 weeks time. Is there any hope?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Fifespud wrote: |
| Heading to Sunshine/Revelstoke/Lake Louise in 3 weeks time. Is there any hope? |
of what?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Fresh snow!
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This year or 2025?
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The forecasters on here are good but asking for 2025 would be a bit foolish.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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GFS getting a bit wobbly long term letting the mild air back up from the SW .
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| GFS getting a bit wobbly long term letting the mild air back up from the SW . |
Are you always so negative?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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And just to be accurate, I have looked at the GFS and for Gressoney it does not at all show what you are suggesting. Runs are very closely packed at 3-4 degrees 09 - 11 Feb. After that there is more disagreement, with the vast majority of runs being at or below freezing as is the mean. The very worst case runs are around +5 degrees 12 - 20 Feb, with the lowest outliers at -10 to -15.
Maybe you are looking somewhere else @Rob Mackley? What did you base your comments on?
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I do love the casino of forecasting!
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You know it makes sense.
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@zikomo, https://www.meteociel.fr/models/gfs/precipitations/252h.htm. this is the model i use regularly for trends and proves to be quite accurate I mostly use the precipitation and temperature model at the top updates with GFS 4 times a day .
Until the last few runs far out it had been pulling in either North or an East flow with cold temps and flakes , nothing significant , after next weekends event but good winter weather . Possibly not so much for your chosen choice Gressoney as the wrong side of the Alpine Ridge . This has now reverted back to the theme most of the winter so far with the flow from the south west , there is precipitation in it but with quite mild temps. Could suit you in Gressoney for HT I’m presuming judging on your new activity on this thread ? If the temps aren’t too high but not the freezer on earlier runs .
Way out and might not happen , hope not , but definitely a wobble on the runs from the last few days .
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Rob Mackley, We are flying out on Thursday so the period 09 - 16 Feb is where I am focussing. And as far as I can tell it should be good, temperatures around the historic mean for this time of year, with a reasonable chance of snow Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon. Some risk that the precipitation comes down as rain at village level, but in my experience if air temperature maxes out below around 4 degrees it will fall as snow (maybe wet snow) and anyway we will be skiing quite a bit higher than that.
So overall I feel pretty confident and see no reason yet to not be so.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@zikomo, yes that’s what’s going to happen the wobble I refer to is beyond that . Happy Hols .
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @zikomo, yes that’s what’s going to happen the wobble I refer to is beyond that . Happy Hols . |
Thanks. Wish I had found this thread earlier, it is fascinating and I'm learning a huge amount. Although I am naturally draw to data analysis so will have to be careful not to fall too far down a rabbit hole with all this!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Interesting forecast on the visitmonterosa website for Gressoney! It has min of -2 and max of +26 for today and min -1, max +17 for tomorrow. That would be quite a range in a day. Given it is currently +5.3 on Sarezza it is clearly a bug....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Maybe a stupid question but for someone who's lurked on this thread and the previous years' threads I've always wondered about freezing levels and snow rain levels and how easy they are to predict.
This weekend seems like a perfect example given the precipitation and temperatures on the ensembles.
MeteoFrance are predicting rain in Les Menuires (1700m) Friday and Saturday but snow in Val Thorens (2300m), obviously that's 600m different which is not insignificant.
I seem to remember discussions in the past about the rain / snow level often being lower than the freezing level with reference to ?dew points.
I know it's difficult to predict and will be affected by loads of factors but does anyone have a simple explanation or rule of thumb for where the rain / snow line will be using all the data we have available?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@jonathancarty, I am also interested in a more expert answer to this. My experience, which is reasonably extensive, is IF there is snow falling higher up it will also fall as snow where the temperature is less that around 4 degrees. This does not seem to hold true all of the time, but it does the vast majority of it. And there is no question that snow will often fall when the temperature is above freezing.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| zikomo wrote: |
| Interesting forecast on the visitmonterosa website for Gressoney! It has min of -2 and max of +26 for today and min -1, max +17 for tomorrow. That would be quite a range in a day. Given it is currently +5.3 on Sarezza it is clearly a bug.... |
Don’t worry, this must be a glitch. We’re here, it’s been warm (10-12c) but nowhere near those temps.
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| SkiRossendale wrote: |
| zikomo wrote: |
| Interesting forecast on the visitmonterosa website for Gressoney! It has min of -2 and max of +26 for today and min -1, max +17 for tomorrow. That would be quite a range in a day. Given it is currently +5.3 on Sarezza it is clearly a bug.... |
Don’t worry, this must be a glitch. We’re here, it’s been warm (10-12c) but nowhere near those temps. |
Thanks. I wasn't worried though lol just found it amusing.
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| jonathancarty wrote: |
Maybe a stupid question but for someone who's lurked on this thread and the previous years' threads I've always wondered about freezing levels and snow rain levels and how easy they are to predict.
This weekend seems like a perfect example given the precipitation and temperatures on the ensembles.
MeteoFrance are predicting rain in Les Menuires (1700m) Friday and Saturday but snow in Val Thorens (2300m), obviously that's 600m different which is not insignificant.
I seem to remember discussions in the past about the rain / snow level often being lower than the freezing level with reference to ?dew points.
I know it's difficult to predict and will be affected by loads of factors but does anyone have a simple explanation or rule of thumb for where the rain / snow line will be using all the data we have available? |
In my experience, but depending on dew point, it snows up to +3c. If that falls on a snow base, that helps it stay as snow.
Val Thorens is far, far colder then Les Menuires. At Easter our taxi drove past the slush of Les Menuires, on reaching Val Thorens it was a winter wonderland, the car thermometer was 5c lower. It wouldn’t just be altitude, Les Menuires has an open sunny aspect, VT seems more enclosed by a near circle of high peaks.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Temperatures drop by 0.65c every 100m on average in high pressure can be as much as 1c per 100m , of course much more comes into play with the rain / snow level than temperature and even more so in the mountains .
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FAQ
