 Poster: A snowHead
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| franga wrote: |
| What's everyone doing for Christmas then? |
Back to UK for Christmas.
(And for once a French train was late, or we would have missed our connection in Chambery after train from Aime broke down).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@nozawaonsen, @Jellybeans1000,
We are all adult enough to take your interpretations of the data with a pinch of salt. So feel free to argue but don't do it on our account please.
Please keep up the good work, I really love this thread and appreciate the chat.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yeah... you guys need to chill out.. season of goodwill and all that... plus, it's interesting to read differing points of view.
On the Xmas tip, I'm heading out tonight on a 1am euro tunnel down to meribel mottaret. Can't be arsed with worrying about snow. It's Christmas and they will definitely have beer. So I'm OK.. 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Chadspurs40, thanks . I'm perfectly chilled.
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Cheers for the update @nozawaonsen
I am keeping everything crossed that the above occurs (Everything!!!!) - even if it skirts Trois Vallees where I will be interested in - it should bring much needed change. Time to be optimistic!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| madmick wrote: |
| Newbie here, so I don't want to sound like an idiot, but was the snowfall in late November forecast like this? |
2016?
It was another retour de l'est - they affect the French/Italian frontier ridge (and perhaps Austria? I dunno) and are fairly predictable but you'd have to go back through this thread to see how early and accurately it was called. Also it was warm so the snow fell above 2000/2200 m so even places like the Val Cenis don't have skiing on natural snow to resort. For the French Alps we have good conditions at altitude towards the Italian border, poor conditions at all altitudes elsewhere.
What we lack is a big atlantic low blasting through the high pressure and dumping a meter of snow.
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Yeah, that would be awesome, maybe if we could talk to the snow gods and inform them that this needs to happen this weekend, or my trip to Les Gets will be sub-par. But as someone else said earlier, I doubt they'll run out of beer, so I shall stay positive regardless 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snow Gods all seemed to have decamped to the US this season, left us in Europe with only the Snow Grinch!
With regards Christmas I'm off to Les Arcs tomorrow to get a sun tan for the next fortnight 
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Since there is some interpretation of the weather being made from forecast positions of the jets it's worth making it clear that the position of any front relating to a jet will, in the case of Europe, be quite some distance (possibly several hundred miles) to the south of the jet as indicated on a chart. The Jet streams are actally as a result of a steep temperature gradient aloft and are not the direct cause of any weather (hopefully snow) at lower levels.
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You know it makes sense.
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Early Nov
| davidof wrote: |
| Snow down to around 1000-1800m in the French Alps from N to S. |
This is how it panned out. Snowed over 1m down to 1000m in NW alps. Was visible 10days out, but increased in intensity and with progressively lower snowline as it rolled in. Happy days.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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No real change on 12z GFS.
Parts of Austria look most likely to benefit from the snowfall on 25 and 27 December, but this isn't a pattern reset and high pressure rebuilds.
Out in FI the possibility of a more fundamental shift is kept afloat in the first week of January, but this is at the far end of what should be taken seriously.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
No real change on 12z GFS.
Out in FI the possibility of a more fundamental shift is kept afloat in the first week of January, but this is at the far end of what should be taken seriously. |
Does anyone know how long this high pressure blocking can carry on for ? Am liking fantasy island at the moment, can we please stay on it.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@2planks, it ends when it ends.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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thanks for the update @nozawaonsen
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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At the very far end of ECM it produces this chart.
In and of itself it's not that interesting not least because it is too far out to have confidence that it will actually look anything like that when we arrive at that date. But. You can see the high pressure setting up further west in the Atlantic and allowing cold air to push down from the north. Noise or signal? Too early to tell and things can slide back and forth in FI, but at this stage I'd say it's worth keeping an eye on that first week of January to see if the pattern fades or intensifies (both of which at this stage remain strong possibilities).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen, thanks, could you tell me how long is a piece of string ?
Ps Happy Christmas !
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Mrs Tr is a proven & globally effective snowbringer. It is rare that we arrive in the alps anywhere near our scheduled time. Snowmageddon I & II were down to her, as was the UK snow "event" in Dec 2010 when we struggled to get home from a devastated London Heathrow after a cheeky early-season weekend on skis. She was responsible for the devastating snow storm that laid waste to California in 2006(?) - the only time we've ever been there.
We are arriving in Innsbruck - en route to Selva Val Gardena - on Jan 1st. Conditions for travel will be horrendous; conditions for skiing (if you make it to your resort) will be extraordinary.
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Could you and Mrs Tr perhaps fly out a week earlier? I promise I'll pay you the extra week - just send me your bank account details, mothers maiden name and the street where you grew up. I'm a Nigerian prince so you can trust me, promise
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I like it! Does this usually affect travel at both ends of your trip? If so how long is your trip? (Innsbruck on the 8th - destination undecided).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@jellybeans1000, what is your view on this very informative latest view from @nozawaonsen ?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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EC, GFS and GEM have a blocking set up developing from the 2nd of January
This may have an effect on a better jetstream setup, pushing cold air down to the Alps, like Noza said.
It might be a signal of a better January....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| ribblevalleyblue wrote: |
| @jellybeans1000, what is your view on this very informative latest view from @nozawaonsen ? |
I agree.
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If there is a change in early January this season is shaping up very much like last year. Heavy snow in lots of places in November, a warm and very dry December as a result of a persistent blocking high, which breaks down in the first week of January leading to heavy snow in the Northern Alps.
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| You can see the high pressure setting up further west in the Atlantic and allowing cold air to push down from the north. Noise or signal? Too early to tell and things can slide back and forth in FI, but at this stage I'd say it's worth keeping an eye on that first week of January to see if the pattern fades or intensifies (both of which at this stage remain strong possibilities). |
The UK Met Office have had the bolded wording in their longer term outlook for several days now.
| Quote: |
UK Outlook for Friday 6 Jan 2017 to Friday 20 Jan 2017:
There is a good deal of uncertainty for this period. Signals do however point towards high pressure being dominant across the UK. This means some longer drier and quieter spells are likely for many, and thus a greater likelihood of local frost and patchy fog by night. There could be spells of more unsettled weather at times though, especially in the north. There is also the potential, although with very little confidence attached to it, that pressure may also build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, and this would bring a higher chance of seeing a colder interlude with northerly winds. |
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Raven, I'm just outside Melbourne and it's been very pleasant:)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Raven, I'm just outside Melbourne and it's been very pleasant:) |
Yeah it is quite pleasant at the moment!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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4-6 January looks good on EPS Control, but not nearly as big on GFS, so a little patience is required here...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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25th and 27th December are both light snow events for Austria on the latest GFS 00z run.
2-4 January is looking good on GFS for snow for most of the Alps.
More verification required beyond New Year's...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
25th and 27th December are both light snow events for Austria on the latest GFS 00z run.
2-4 January is looking good on GFS for snow for most of the Alps.
More verification required beyond New Year's... |
And unbroken sunshine for a week from 7th please....
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
25th and 27th December are both light snow events for Austria on the latest GFS 00z run.
2-4 January is looking good on GFS for snow for most of the Alps.
More verification required beyond New Year's... |
And unbroken sunshine for a week from 7th please.... |
Wash your mouth out, Buchanan
What we want is 10-20 inches every night with unbroken sunshine all day long...
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| 2planks wrote: |
| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
25th and 27th December are both light snow events for Austria on the latest GFS 00z run.
2-4 January is looking good on GFS for snow for most of the Alps.
More verification required beyond New Year's... |
And unbroken sunshine for a week from 7th please.... |
Wash your mouth out, Buchanan
What we want is 10-20 inches every night with unbroken sunshine all day long... |
I was being realistic....
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anyone know what value sacrificing the mother in law is in terms of snow, she's coming to stay today...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Little Martin wrote: |
| anyone know what value sacrificing the mother in law is in terms of snow, she's coming to stay today... |
You get rain. How dare you...!
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Lack of snow syndrome... it eventually fixes!
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FAQ
