 Poster: A snowHead
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So fairly light snow is possible (though not certain) around the Three Valleys, Les Deux Alpes, Alpe D'Huez etc
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Not as far north as PdS then 
I still have a week and a half to go...come on snow, you know you want to.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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mheadbee, no, nothing significant by the looks of things at the moment, might get a dusting though.
A bigger prize if you are going in a week and a half is the potential for a bigger change in the weather. Nothing certain at all. But there are some faint suggestions out there...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen dont tease, spill the beans, name names! 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, DB, cool site 
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Could one of you nice weather folk put up a GFS link for my location please. Coleraine, Norn Iron.
55, 8' N 6, 39' W
Cheers
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johnboy, I think this is right:
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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http://viennaskiing.com/how-to-find-the-snow-a-brief-guide-for-the-european-alps/
'The large inner-alpine valleys like the Susa and Aosta Valley (Western Italy), Rhone Valley (Switzerland), the Inn Valley (Austria) and the Adige Valley (Northern Italy) all are quite dry. The driest regions are those valleys which lead from these big valleys into the high mountain massifs (i.e. Mattertal, Engadin, Oetztal, Vinschgau). In some of these valleys you will find wine yards as high as 1000m! Not a promising prerequisite for deep powder.'
'The locational choices depend heavily on the season of the trip. Especially early winter (November/December and sometimes even January) can be particularly tricky. The best approach for this time period is to restrict the locations to those which receive particular intensive orographic precipitation. Inner-alpine dry regions should be strict no-go areas for this time period. These regions (which in principle offer some very fine skiing) are perfect only later in the winter, especially for spring skiing. Then chances are higher that a good snow base has been accumulated even in these alpine ‘deserts’.
This is quite a revelation for anyone planning an early season trip. 
It basicially says don't go to Zermatt, Saas Fee, Aosta, the Milky Way, St Moritz, Solden or the Dolomites before February. I suppose I sort of knew that from years of watching the conditions in the Alps where it appears these areas frequently have poor early season depths, although this La Nina winter seems to have delivered snow to either ends of the Alps with both the Milky Way and the Dolomites having good early season snow, much better than say the Tarantaise or Savoie Alps which are presumeably more 'orographic'. Also i assume altitude and snow making have made these dry inner alpine areas more reliable for early season skiing, but not good places for early season powder, particularly as they also tend to be very rocky.
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A few thoughts whilst 18z is rolling out:
- no real chance of snow tonight in French Alps.
- though possible light snow showers across much of the Alps tomorrow evening. Possibly slightly stronger in Carinthia and the Dolomites into Friday.
- potential for reasonable snow in the Pyrenees from tomorrow evening ebbing and flowing for much of the weekend. And again Tuesday and Wednesday.
- possibility of light snow in French Alps on Saturday.
- then dry all the way to the end of next week.
Then... [CAUTION FROM HERE ON IN]
Well by now we are well into FI... So very low confidence... But a number of the runs across a number of the models seem to see things shifting around the end of next week... One option would see the high pressure building up to Scandinavia inviting cold in from the east... But the form horse this evening at least seems to the Atlantic back in charge... So snow across the Alps next Friday, then pause till larger snowfall comes in the week after next.
Obviously it is FI and it almost certainly will not happen like that. But for today at least (and what the paragraph above is meant to illustrate) the end of the high pressure seems to be an option (though don't write it off yet, nor forget that the Atlantic can bring milder temperatures along with moisture...)... It will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles and whether this scenario picks up any support (at all) tomorrow.
twoodwar, hope that gives an indication of the possible pattern shift. Possible is the key word. And the form horse in FI is probably a unicorn chomping on a cigar, swigging a 1982 Bordeaux...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Incidentally the 18z control and a number of other ensembles (if not the operational) were looking a little more business like about the possibility of snow in France on Saturday. Hope it can build on that way tomorrow... 
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You know it makes sense.
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Another relatively stormy set of runs into FI (slightly different to last nights, but further suggestion that there may be a pattern change over the horizon).
This morning's (00z) control runs are again trying to rally the potential for a little more snow in France on Saturday. Will they have brought the operational runs with them by this evening?
Clearly a little more mild by the end of next week than it has been for a while, before a slight dip.
Stormy weather from the Atlantic (like that cropping up in some of the FI runs) would inevitably be likely to be more mild than low pressure coming in from the north or east. Worth watching (rather than worrying about).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well 10cm of fresh reported over the day yesterday and more fallen overnight at Cairngorm - don't think that was forecast ... just goes to show how fickle the models can be when it comes to snow! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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brian
brian
Guest
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian yes next week looks largely dry and sunny (though worth keeping an eye on the French Alps given some of the control runs) Little warmer than last week perhaps, but still just below seasonal averages across most of the Alps.
The possible pattern change is still a little while off, 10-14 days (and by and large tucked into the low res part of GFS). 06z continues the theme (would potentially be gales across the north of the UK in the second week of February and snow in Scottish mountains?). It will be interesting to see how and if things shape up as it moves into hi res.
Mattmulkeen, yes there seem to be a few glitches at present with the ensembles on wetter and meteociel.
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ok so its 2 days before i go to Val Thorens, are we still saying there will be no new snow next week? Dry and sunny is fine, at least we will have great views and visibility etc etc who needs powder when you can have rock hard pistes.....
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Crispyapplepie, possibility of 5cm or so on Saturday, but may well come to nothing. Otherwise, looks dry...
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brian
brian
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12z FI delivers big time around the 7th/8th Feb (with an ideal trajectory for the Valais ). Half term deliverance anyone?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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12zGFS Another stormy (and potentially) snowy FI...
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Thu 27-01-11 20:44; edited 2 times in total
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12z FI delivers big time around the 7th/8th Feb (with an ideal trajectory for the Valais ). Half term deliverance anyone?
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i go to chatel on the 8th, i bet I get snowed in at the airport.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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brian, I was chatting with a local instructor today and we were actually theorising that could be a scenario for total chaos. Imagine it:
It hasn't snowed for weeks.
It dumps big time.
Avalanche risk goes off the scale.
Lifts are closed all over the place.
Resorts are struggling to get pistes open.
It's chaos on the roads, and....
... it's half-term.....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Weather will change with the new moon, not before.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Cross model support for a pattern change continuing. So far the weather is mostly coming in from the north west which is good. Almost all of it in low res at present so limited confidence and certainly low confidence in any of the detail. Worth keeping an eye on temperatures as it comes into +192 range.
Here is ECM 12z at the limit of it's range, at least if you aren't paying, +240.
Continuing uncertainty about potential snowfall into southern part of French Alps (including Tarentaise) from Saturday through Monday, but there is potential for light snowfall (possibly slightly stronger now Monday into Tuesday).
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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can someone do the wrigglies for sestriere please
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Smokin Joe, here you go:
Sestriere:
Like southern parts of the French Alps there is considerable uncertainty over how much snow will fall over Saturday. The GFS operational run indicates not a great deal, the other ensembles suggest it could be a reasonable amount. Quite a cold week coming up, though not as cold as last week, slightly warming to next weekend and looks quite sunny and dry from Monday.
WRF has light snow coming in later today and more tomorrow and is also a little more bullish than the GFS operational run.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 28-01-11 9:21; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Its either snowing or foggy on the webcams now.
Cheers nozawaonsen
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| davidof wrote: |
| Weather will change with the new moon, not before. |
you been speaking to snowangel
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Looking at some of those FI charts it is worth flagging up how stormy some them could be in the UK and especially Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England...
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Fri 28-01-11 21:08; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian
brian
Guest
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FAQ
Nevermind, been a good week and the cold has really helped keep what is laying in decent enough shape for smiles 
