 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@zzz, My browser wont open that link for some reason. Definitely expected to be well below freezing at 1500m over those nights.
I think the difference might be altitude, at Aosta (low) it will be a bit warmer than Gressoney/Champoluc (higher)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@zzz, @zikomo, that link still shows a lot of disagreement in the models (as to be expected), although the trend is there for lower temps and precipitation....this time next week we will know if its good or bad precipitation 
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@kitenski, @zzz, I'm looking at it now. Not sure which model/run to select. When I look at GFS deterministic it clearly shows below freezing for the duration of the precipitation (Gressoney). Can you point me to where the variation is?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I don't know how to post pictures but when I look at the graph with all GFS runs there is surprising agreement for so far out in time. They all show significantly colder temperatures the week after next. At worst we could get c3 degrees on Friday at 1700. Even if that happens I can't see the precipitation falling as rain. I remain on the optimistic side given everything I have seen.
Most important to me is low temperatures and a move away from extreme freeze/thaw. The current forecast snow is not enough to repair the off-piste where we are going anyway, so I'm looking for good piste conditions which I think I will get.
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@kitenski, I ran exactly the same for Gressoney. There are fewer outliers, and even those are below 5 degrees at all times after 10 Feb. And whilst there is a spread as you would expect, that spread is all within a band of low temperatures.
I get that there could be precipitation on the 9th alongside higher temperatures. But my runs give an average of 2.3 degrees when the precipitation is due to arrive (highest run is 3.7 degrees and lowest -0.4 degrees). And as I said they all trend downwards after that.
Added to which, in my experience of mountain weather when the temperature at 1500m is 3 degrees (or usually less than 5) anything invariably falls as snow not rain. And it will definitely snow higher up. I guess the downside is for those a bit further north and with lower altitude slopes but we are generally skiing between 2000m and 2700m, and have the option of going even higher by driving to Cervinia. So I remain in a happy place and think it very likely that anything that falls where we will actually be skiing will be snow.
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@kitenski, Oh and thanks to you and others, I have managed to get into MUCH more detail than ever before!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@zikomo, yeah I enjoy learning about it as well, I'm aware I'm a very poor amateur but I see it all above zero on 10th Feb with a huge spike of precipitation then some of the models keep it above zero? Note this is from Temp 850hPa & Precipitation image, 850mb roughly corresponds to an altitude between 1400-1600m for the alps most of the time.
You can see the white line dips down nicely, whereas the green does the opposite.
Gres is 1600m I think so you could well be right and see snow around village level....fingers crossed for you, love that area!
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@kitenski, Maybe I am just more optimistic. Mean of the models is around 3 degrees when the precipitation arrives. I will take that any day!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@zikomo, I'm sure it'll be good whatever happens! Nowt either of us can do about it!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@zikomo, as you say, most of the skiing around that area is way above the resort level anyway. You might just get a little damp on the way up. It looks like great skiing for your week.
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The models seem to be in good agreement for the next week, basically warm and dry. They also seem to show agreement for a change later next weekend and into the following week. It looks like a significant area of low pressure will form over Europe, but much uncertainty over the location and intensity of the low. The individual main runs and the ensembles showing a widespread range of solutions. It does suggest a spell of unsettled weather with snow likely to increasingly lower altitude.
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You know it makes sense.
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It’s amazing what a few Nov/Dec blizzards can do for a winter sports season. For the past 7 weeks, take Megeve and Morzine for example. Seemingly endless days of warm by day, mild by night, the occasional torrential rain day. Yet skiing and snowboarding carries on. Far better than last season’s months of record breaking heat and low snow base.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@kitenski, just trying to stay positive! You are as likely to be right as I am. Already had some great powder and touring this season but was looking forward to some of that with my daughter but seems it is not to be. Again. So she gets to kick my back bottom on the piste. Again!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Gosh so much chat about gressoney! Is the whole of snowheads going there? (We are)
Or are you just using it as an example weather map/forecast wise
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Week in the dolomites skiing on pistes in high temps. Zero snow under chairlifts below 2300 meters. Brown slush by end of week at bottom of slopes. Never known conditions like it at this time of year. Got a tan, enjoyed it. Those going in the next couple of weeks need a top up desperately. Hotel manager said there was a bit of panic setting in.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Never known conditions like it at this time of year
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It's not so very uncommon. Last year (well, at least this side of Mt Blanc)... '89, '90, '91 ... etc.
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| Snowysarah wrote: |
Gosh so much chat about gressoney! Is the whole of snowheads going there? (We are)
Or are you just using it as an example weather map/forecast wise
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Sort of! We are actually staying in Champoluc, flying out on Thursday. When are you going?
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@scotspikey, sounds dreadful. Where were you skiing? Looks to my like the dolomites maybe will get colder and some snow the week after next.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@mountainaddict, thanks! Will do!
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| zikomo wrote: |
| Snowysarah wrote: |
Gosh so much chat about gressoney! Is the whole of snowheads going there? (We are)
Or are you just using it as an example weather map/forecast wise
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Sort of! We are actually staying in Champoluc, flying out on Thursday. When are you going? |
Arrive Saturday night. Train to Lyon then hiring a car Can’t wait!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Great sleep last night
I woke up and it was late April
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Back to Weather Outlook please
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Back to Weather Outlook please |
Feel free to do so by adding your take on the outlook.
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You know it makes sense.
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Not unhappy with the outlook for Lognan
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@under a new name, it really is starting to look good!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| scotspikey wrote: |
| Week in the dolomites skiing on pistes in high temps. Zero snow under chairlifts below 2300 meters. Brown slush by end of week at bottom of slopes. Never known conditions like it at this time of year. Got a tan, enjoyed it. Those going in the next couple of weeks need a top up desperately. Hotel manager said there was a bit of panic setting in. |
Love to know where that is. Only 1 lift in Seiser Alm with little snow below, all this past week and below that lift is not even a piste. And every piste here is below 2300m. Haven't seen any brown slush anywhere all week. Even the village drag lift at 1000m asl is still covered and working today.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This. We skied all day (early arrival for BB) and all pistes in Arabba and Alta Badia have perfect snow coverage.
The lower ones, at lunch time are a tad wet. But not mushy.
And it's still way better than being at work.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Some suggestions that the breakdown next weekend might be accompanied with a foehn wind along the French / Italian border . If that happens it will stay dry in the Tarentaise and Savoie.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| scotspikey wrote: |
| Week in the dolomites skiing on pistes in high temps. Zero snow under chairlifts below 2300 meters. Brown slush by end of week at bottom of slopes. Never known conditions like it at this time of year. Got a tan, enjoyed it. Those going in the next couple of weeks need a top up desperately. Hotel manager said there was a bit of panic setting in. |
This makes me very worried for my mid March Dolomites trip! Mind sharing which town were you in? Was there really no snow on the pistes below 2300m? Also keeping track of the other Dolomites weather thread and that seems to be reporting a bit more positively about current conditions
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| jimmybog wrote: |
| scotspikey wrote: |
| Week in the dolomites skiing on pistes in high temps. Zero snow under chairlifts below 2300 meters. Brown slush by end of week at bottom of slopes. Never known conditions like it at this time of year. Got a tan, enjoyed it. Those going in the next couple of weeks need a top up desperately. Hotel manager said there was a bit of panic setting in. |
Love to know where that is. Only 1 lift in Seiser Alm with little snow below, all this past week and below that lift is not even a piste. And every piste here is below 2300m. Haven't seen any brown slush anywhere all week. Even the village drag lift at 1000m asl is still covered and working today. |
Think he was in Passo Tonale. I'm here now. There is snow down to the resort. There are, however, brown bare shoulders above the resort so at maybe 2400 presumably stripped by sun and snow on the south facing side.
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@skidude300, it’s the 3rd of February. Conditions now have almost no relevance to mid-March - it’s six weeks away!
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Some suggestions that the breakdown next weekend might be accompanied with a foehn wind along the French / Italian border . If that happens it will stay dry in the Tarentaise and Savoie. |
Please tell more …
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Some suggestions that the breakdown next weekend might be accompanied with a foehn wind along the French / Italian border . If that happens it will stay dry in the Tarentaise and Savoie. |
Hi Rob - is there any science behind this?
I definitely hope this is t the case 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@dannyboy23, @franga, if you get a south east wind/foehn blowing over the main alpine ridge into the Tarentaise/Savoie it will stop the front getting in . You could be in say Les Arcs looking at angry clouds to the South west/Maurianne valley and to the East Italy/Aosta but in a hole where the precipitation clouds just don’t get to . This does happen often when the weather comes from that direction .
If you play this precipitation prediction timeframe of the GFS you will notice a dry hole till Sunday the 11th . Below
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/3h.htm
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FAQ
