 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
@Jellybeans1000, There speaks an Australian... I presume by spring, you mean our autumn?
@nozawaonsen, I think we're roughly on the same page. Excellent.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Oh and also, ECM backs up GFS in yielding a bit more snow on this evening's run. No big turnaround for France, but today has been decent for Austria, with later runs showing more promise for some slightly more persistent snow in parts of Austria.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
@WellingtonBoot, Silly me, but a lower accuracy occurs in both Spring and Autumn, but pre season is Autumn...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
There clearly is some value in cautious use of long term forecasts. But it is limited and needs to be done with care. Over claiming the ability of long term forecasts takes you into the realms of the Express and Piers Corbyn (brother of... )...
Looking at some your own analysis from 10 days ago it's clear they fall well wide of the mark. There is no meaningful snow in the Alps between 22-24 December now showing and no sign of a low from the south anywhere between 27-29 December. As I say that's not meant to especially critical, although I do think it well illustrates how weak attempts at detailed forecasting are at that range. Interestingly you went on to caveat your post by saying it was neither accurate nor reliable. Which about sums it up really.
| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
FI haters beware! My take on the future (not discussing the accuracy of any charts today)
| Quote: |
Europe-
With no polar vortex and constant blocking highs, the short term is bleak for Europe. But long range, there may be something.
22nd-24th Dec on CFS looks like a possible chance of snow to the the North of the Alps. GFS looks like more to the South and EC looks to be leaning that way as time passes on.
27th-29th is looking good on GFS, EC and CFS for a nice coldish low from the south.
|
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2016/12/11th-december-forecast.html |
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
@nozawaonsen, well said. Long range is for dreamers. As I've said before, anything more than 24 hrs and you're starting to enter the realms of fantasy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In terms of longer outlooks the Met Office three month contingency planners now covers January to March. These are an interesting read, but are clearly and heavily caveated and even then only meant to give a broad assessment.
Worth noting their assessment which suggests an increased likelihood of a more sustained shift to a +NAO as we go through winter. In very broad terms that would mean an increased likelihood of snowfall in the northern Alps, but that is certainly not guaranteed.
"The westerly phase of the QBO tends to favour a stronger stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), leading to a higher likelihood of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an increased likelihood of mild conditions across northern Europe. Latest forecasts suggest that following a very weak start to the winter the SPV will become stronger than average by the start of the outlook period. the largest sea ice deficits in the Barents and Kara Seas. Recent research suggests that lack of sea ice, especially in the Eurasian sector, may favour a weaker polar vortex through the winter. This increases the likelihood of blocking patterns and a negative phase of the NAO.
Much of the North Atlantic continues to show above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Waters near Newfoundland are warmer than average, while SSTs south east of Greenland are slightly below average. this pattern is thought to moderately increase the probability of above-average pressure in the central North Atlantic, leading to an increased frequency of northerly or northwesterly winds over the UK. At this time of year such a pressure pattern is often associated with slightly below-average temperatures.
Overall, the factors discussed above favour a positive phase of the NAO in the 3-month period of the outlook. During January, predictions from the Met Office seasonal prediction system suggest an increased chance of a more blocked pattern over the Atlantic Ocean. This would moderate the westerly winds associated with positive NAO to a degree and create more balanced chances of above- and below-average temperatures."
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Addiction is the word - and I hang on every word sprouting from Guru Noza's typing fingers - My 4th visit this morning, and yes, as Noza says, never look too far ahead..... but the thought is tempting.
Being that I am going 15th January, when I read a positive forecast for snow I believe it, when someone says there is no snow coming, I just ignore it - it helps!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Another addict here. Every year I say I'm not going to obsess and stress about the snow yet there I am again. Of course I could just stop going skiing and there would be no more worrying about snow but where's the fun in that 
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
I see we have a new kid on the block @Jellybeans1000. Welcome always good to have another perspective.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
| oscarkat wrote: |
Addiction is the word - and I hang on every word sprouting from Guru Noza's typing fingers - My 4th visit this morning, and yes, as Noza says, never look too far ahead..... but the thought is tempting.
Being that I am going 15th January, when I read a positive forecast for snow I believe it, when someone says there is no snow coming, I just ignore it - it helps! |
I used to think I was addicted to this thread. But being grounded by fog at London City Airport waiting to go to Geneva has allowed me to take it to a whole new level. I actually now talk to other people as if I know what I am talking about when 100% of my "knowledge" actually comes from this thread. I hope noza and the other knowledgeable types enjoy what they do because the benefit loads of us now get is enormous.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Key thing in that Met Office report is that there is indications of a blocking pattern during a +NAO, little abnormal but not unheard of. That weakens snow chances for Northern Alps, perhaps okay for Scandinavia. And it's a +NAO, so Southern Alps get limited snow as well. This sets up good conditions over January for North and East Europe and relatively poor for the Alps and Pyrenees.
Just to add another perspective, the above theory goes with CFS, but against CanSIPS modelling. Not sure that one relatively poor accuracy model can seal a better winter, sorry guys.
Also to add to that, the German Alps won't do bad out of this. Head North if you can...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
@puplett Thanks, glad to be onboard.@JohnMo I do froth at the charts as much as many others do here, I enjoy checking the charts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
What about Austria Jellybeans?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
@Jellybeans1000, you are over interpreting the Met office contingency forecast. That's not helpful.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
MF now gone sunshine all the way through to 4 Jan for northern French Alps. Inconclusive Christmas disturbance disappeared. Which is not to say it's gonna snow on 4 Jan but that's as far as their forecast goes. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Raven wrote: |
| What about Austria Jellybeans? |
Northern Austria will do well, Far south will do poorly. The whole country would be considered average.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
The extended high pressure is certainly providing plenty of sunshine in the Alps. So although there hasn't been much snow outside of the SW Alps recently there has been some pretty pleasant weather and as long as you are high enough or have well prepared enough pistes there is plenty of fun to be had and shades to be worn.
Conditions do look like shifting a little on Christmas Day with weak snowfall primarily in Austria and again on 27 December. Winds also look like picking up during this period.
Following this high pressure wastes no time in rebuilding and looks set to hold at least till New Year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @Jellybeans1000, you are over interpreting the Met office contingency forecast. That's not helpful. |
I don't pick off just one Forecast, I look at EC, CFS, CanSIPS and NMME data as well as meterologists written forecasts from a variety of private and government sources. I think many people watching this thread find this information interesting and helpful.
I do though second your forecast for the short term...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
The extended high pressure is certainly providing plenty of sunshine in the Alps. So although there hasn't been much snow outside of the SW Alps recently there has been some pretty pleasant weather and as long as you are high enough or have well prepared enough pistes there is plenty of fun to be had and shades to be worn.
Conditions do look like shifting a little on Christmas Day with weak snowfall primarily in Austria and again on 27 December. Winds also look like picking up during this period.
Following this high pressure wastes no time in rebuilding and looks set to hold at least till New Year. |
...and it will be warmer after Tuesday - freezing level towards or above mountain top (west Austria) though temperature inversion currently ongoing seems to continue (resort web cam in Ischgl consistently reports sub zero and lots of snow making has been going on on resort runs even when warmer up top).
Looking at the Arlberg thread people are getting very depressed about conditions in Lech, less so in St Anton, but neither seems anywhere near as good as current conditions in nearby Ischgl if the web cams are to be believed.
So a nice dump in week 1 2017 please, ready for me in week 2...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Jellybeans1000, no but in the posts above you were quite clearly and specifically referring to the Met Office contingency forecast and claiming that from this you could make claims about snowfall patterns for European countries with a degree of apparent confidence which is not supported by the original forecast itself which is both cautious and general in nature. I reckon that's a bit unhelpful.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @Jellybeans1000, no but in the posts above you were quite clearly and specifically referring to the Met Office contingency forecast and claiming that from this you could make claims about snowfall patterns for European countries with a degree of apparent confidence which is not supported by the original forecast itself which is both cautious and general in nature. I reckon that's a bit unhelpful. |
Say what you want, but that is based on climatology and the skill of many forecasts both human and computer. You can't make a forecast from one forecast, that would be useless and beside the point.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Caveat lector.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
I can't be bothered anymore...
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
What's everyone doing for Christmas then?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| franga wrote: |
| What's everyone doing for Christmas then? |
Watching this thread? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
Jellybeans1000 all views are helpful. Appreciated.
Great piccies from suziedoesit (90s name for Sauze d'Oulx). The only time I was there was about 15 years ago and they were having a snow drought. Just about adequate on the piste. First time I saw a flake in the sky was when I pulled up onto my drive in Hampshire after driving back from Gatwick.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Looking nervously at the weather forecast for Cervinia
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
@Jekllybean - sorry, I'm with Noza. I think your posts come across with a degree of certainty (and maybe a hint of arrogance!) that is either unintended or unfounded. I think this is generally unhelpful, especially in this current dry spell where folk are dipping in and out of this page and clutching at straws.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| franga wrote: |
| What's everyone doing for Christmas then? |
Off to Ischgl tomorrow
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| notnats wrote: |
| franga wrote: |
| What's everyone doing for Christmas then? |
Off to Ischgl tomorrow |
Nice.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| notnats wrote: |
| franga wrote: |
| What's everyone doing for Christmas then? |
Off to Ischgl tomorrow |
Good choice it seems (only parts of Italy would be better I think); glad I made the same choice - 2 weeks to go for me
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| hawkesbaynz wrote: |
Jellybeans1000 all views are helpful. Appreciated.
Great piccies from suziedoesit (90s name for Sauze d'Oulx). The only time I was there was about 15 years ago and they were having a snow drought. Just about adequate on the piste. First time I saw a flake in the sky was when I pulled up onto my drive in Hampshire after driving back from Gatwick. |
went there in the 80s with Club 18-30....
skiing wasn't all linked with other resorts then; may try it again some time
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Newbie here, so I don't want to sound like an idiot, but was the snowfall in late November forecast like this? what i'm trying to ask is, is it possible that all these forecasts about the blocking continuing are false, and come next week we could see another lovely dump - or was the snowfall in late November very accurately predicted and we're going to see no snowfall using the same prediction methods?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| franga wrote: |
| What's everyone doing for Christmas then? |
Enjoying the sun Down Under 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
....watching the resort webcams....
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| Dashed wrote: |
| @Jekllybean - sorry, I'm with Noza. I think your posts come across with a degree of certainty (and maybe a hint of arrogance!) that is either unintended or unfounded. I think this is generally unhelpful, especially in this current dry spell where folk are dipping in and out of this page and clutching at straws. |
Nice of you to hound out someone just trying to help.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
...refreshing Bergfex and SkiCkub forecasts...
...delighted when Bergfex up snow fall over Christmas for Ischgl to almost 10cm and probability to 80%... (Yes, it's happened this morning!!)
...deciding which of Bergfex or SkiClub forecast is more "accurate"... (Bergfex, for now...)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
