The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

A snowHead

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

looks like a fair amount of snow headed to the northern alps, Switzerland, Austria by end of the day.

Hopefully some of it will sneak off to the left a bit and land on Frenchland as well.

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phillip33, I'm actually in the UK right this minute. I once had my fortune told by a rather scary old man in an African village - he took a little leather bag of bones from round his neck, squinted at me for a few minutes, threw them on the ground and told me how many children I'd have. I thought it sounded right up your street as a style of weather forecasting. wink

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shoogly, I think the problem may be that it does indeed move to the left. But too far... We'll see.

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nozawaonsen, so the massif central might get a good dose?

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a direct hit 1 cm in valdisere fingers crossed

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nozawaonsen, what are the latest pressure charts looking like for the area? sorry, i have no idea where to find them, i tend to rely on radar and never look more than a few hours in advance Very Happy

edit: ignore me. just found them. this looks interesting for the weekend and on from there

pam at least i,m not a typical man and prone to exageration !!??

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Almost scared to ask given the recent dearth of snow out there (it's been nearly 5 days without heavy snow), but anybody got any thoughts on the forecast for Hokkaido at the moment? Looks like maybe some snow at the weekend, but I'm not used to looking at far eastern charts so hard to tell Confused

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mheadbee, from basic terms, wind travels clockwise around high pressure, anti-clockwise around low pressure. low pressure is more turbulent and has more weather systems attached to them. high pressure gives settled calm weather with not much in the way of cloud cover. In the summer this gives us blue sky sunny days. In the winter it gives us cold weather (for the most part) as there's no cloud cover to keep the heat in and temps can go down at night and rise slightly during the day. In turn, any low that comes into that area is going to bring some precipitation with it. This may or may not fall as snow as it comes into contact with the cold air/land. Depending on the positioning of the high pressure the easterly winds on the southern edge of that high can drag very cold air in from russia/siberia and further north from Scandinavia and the arctic.

The big high pressure in that chart above that is sitting over the UK could do with being more west to allow more cold and snow to come down from Scandinavia and the arctic.

Disclaimer: I am in no way whatsoever a weather expert but i think most of that sums it up. I'm sure someone with proper knowledge of all of this will be along soon to correct anything i've said wrong. Very Happy

Arno, not too sure, looks to me like Wednesday's low pressure system just drifts off into the Atlantic without getting much further south into France...

They may however pick up some snowfall later in the week (Friday night) as could the southern French Alps and particularly the Italian side of the Milky Way depending on how the low pressure system moves through the Mediterranean at the end of the week...

Here it is on GFS on Friday morning.

You know it makes sense.

nozawaonsen, looking at the meteox radar, it doesn't look like that precipitation is curving off anywhere, looks like a direct hit on the alps???

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

shoogly, yes, but be careful.

Remember that it is moving anti clockwise round the low pressure system as it comes down. This is easier to see if you watch it in a longer loop (six or nine) and you can see where the low pressure system is centered and moving generally south west. So although the weather looks like it is moving towards the Alps it is actually moving around the low pressure system which itself sinks to the west of the Alps moving out to the Atlantic.

Here it is as currently modeled for 2200 this evening on WRF 12z. You can see it looks poised above the Switzerland and the Arlberg in Austria, with a separate arm out in the Channel.

Here it is at 0600 tomorrow on WRF 06z. Although it it has moved further west into France it hasn't really made much progress south into the Alps (it does however look like it could deliver some reasonable snow for the Arlberg).

Here it is at 2100 tomorrow evening on WRF 06z. And again you can see how it has swung further west and south on it's western arm, but not made much progress in the east over the Alps. It does though look like producing some light snow in parts of northern France (Chamonix) and Switzerland (Valais) tomorrow evening, though not a large amount wink

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, whats your outlook for Scotland, rather damp and miserable on the webcams. Crying or Very sad

A snowHead

Ricklovesthepowder, temperatures have been relatively mild in the Scottish mountains over the last 24 hours, so what did come over came over as rain. Things are set to cool down quite quickly into tomorrow and so there may be some light snow by morning. After that it looks pretty dry for the next few days.

Incidentally the South East of the UK looks set for quite a dramatic cooling over the next couple of days (a short cold snap rather than any extended deep cold). Possibly losing 10c by Thursday morning. It will definitely be noticeable. It could bring some snow to the South East. This is us being clipped by the low pressure system from the north which is also heading towards France (but which I suspect will also only really just clip the Alps)... rolling eyes

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Can't that high pressure system sitting over the UK just go away, it's not wanted!

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evening all....sat scouring the forecasts and meteo france shows the snow band running out of steam north of the french alps tomorrow morning so no new snow in sight for us this week i dont think.

Having said that day and night temperatures have been so low that they have been making snow 24/7 in and around the espace diamant and as a result cover is pretty reasonable.

Fingers crossed something falls out the sky tomorrow but not pinning my hopes on it i have to say.

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any thoughts on a sprinkle over austria on the w/c 29th? wigglies have a couple of bumps around the 2nd or so, not much but some hope?

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rogg, i'm sure there are better places to relieve yourself than Austria...

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Should be some smashing conditions in Austria at the end of this week and over the weekend. Fresh snow, cold temperatures and sunshine... The Arlberg and Tyrol look they may see some reasonable snow fall overnight and some light snow tomorrow. Blaue Himmel conditions from Thursday and Friday, then much of the weekend and next weeks currently looks sunny, dry and cold (and potentially very cold on Sunday, -33C first thing in the morning?).

[Only a little frustrating that I have had to cancel my trip over there tomorrow at short notice... Hey ho.]

Over in the Pyrenees it looks like they could get a fair amount of snow at the end of the week and into the weekend.

France and Switzerland may see some very light snow overnight, but unfortunately the low pressure looks like it will just miss the western Alps on its way to the Atlantic. Bringing cloud cover, but probably little in the way of snow. From the weekend though it looks like cold, dry and sunny weather will be back in charge for much of next week...

Snow will come for the western Alps, but it looks like we will have to wait a little longer still...

Girl don't make me wait

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some sights are now showing snow fall for sat so fingers crossed it will come and hopefully with a little luck it will come thick and fast.... rolling eyes

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Where crispyapplepie?

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Just a thought, but is there any chance everyone in the UK could inhale deeply at the same time?

Thanks!

stevomcd, I was wondering if anyone knows the steps to a snow dance that actually works...

You know it makes sense.

There does look like being an opportunity for low pressure in the Mediterranean to bring some snow to Pyrenees Friday and Saturday then on to the Massif Central, Southern French Alps, Montgenevre (and possibly up as high as the Tarentaise, but that is less clear at this stage).

Worth watching to see if it may start to track a little further north on it's way through...

Looking out a little further there does look like a possibility that the current pattern could be disrupted around the end of next week (although whether this would end up simply being a prelude to the high pressure reestablishing itself is less clear...)

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

ChrisWo, yes, it is a little calmer in Hokkaido than it has been of late, though it looks like they have a good base after some very good falls over the past two to three weeks. There looks like some fairly decent snowfall coming in over the weekend. Possibly calming a little Tuesday, Wednesday, maybe some more coming through Thursday?

You might have some fun playing around with some of the West Pacific charts on here:

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (US Navy)

There does look like a potentially serious storm brewing for Japan around 06 February arriving 07 February (though too far out to have much confidence)...

A snowHead

Still looks like the Southern French Alps could get some fresh snow on Saturday morning according to the overnight GFS run. Though personally I would take their precipitation forecasts with a pinch of salt especially after the charts got it so wrong for the Dolomites last week. Even yesterday the GFS charts showed snow for the Dolomites overnight and this morning which clearly hasn't happened. Apart from that, still no change with high pressure mainly in charge over the next 7 days at least. Still possibilities of changes happening towards the end of next week according to the European model ECMWF. But again I would treat their charts that far out with caution.

A snowHead

jimmybog, yup I think it looks best for the Pyrenees and the Milky Way at the end of the week at present. Still possible same may reach up further north, but it is not the strongest scenario at present. Worth keeping an eye on though...

GFS 06Z FI has high pressure in charge over the next week and like ECM suggests some possibility of a pattern shift at the end of next week, a fusillade of weak northerly incursions on the edge of the Alps, but in the end can't resist bringing back the high pressure each time. Still let's see...

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Dumping at Cairngorm at the moment - more than was forecast IIRC! snowHead

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Meteoswiss giving a little snow for Zermatt, and Wengen this Friday/Saturday. Still dancing. wink

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Given the current outlook perhaps time for a delve into longer range forecasts...

Back in October (see around page four of this thread if you are interested) there were a number of Winter LRFs coming out which seemed to have a broad theme of winter in Europe being colder and drier than average. We are of course only really just over half way through winter with another month to come, but to my mind (even with the notable Atlantic influenced mild spell earlier in January) that turns out to be looking like a fairly good forecast so far.

If someone has access to the temperatures figures I would be curious to know, but my impression is that the cold in December and colder than average temperatures for much of the last week will have brought the average down despite the warm spell. Drier I think one can probably agree (?) without access to the figures...

Anyway I saw this posted on TWO and thought it might be of interest. WSI appears to be a company which provides forecasts to energy traders.

"Weather Services International: Recent Moderation of Extreme Cold to Last into February Followed by Sharp Return to Cold Heading into March

Milder Mid-Winter Period, But More Extreme Cold Likely Late

... we expect a return to more severe and widespread below-normal temperatures across much of Europe, lasting well into spring."

As background they forecast in October that "we expect another winter with below-normal temperatures across the UK and the western half of the mainland, although not nearly as severe as last winter. Further, we expect the coldest weather to be early and late in the winter, with the potential for a very mild spell during the heart of winter."

And in November "we expect the coldest weather to be in December, with the potential for a very mild spell sometime in January or February if the negative NAO pattern ever relaxes"

Anyway LRF's are probably best taken with a pinch of salt, but will be interesting to see how this looks at the end of March...

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bring on a cold (and snowy please) March!

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Anyone willing to have a long range guess at what the snow will be like in the 3v's at half term? Smile

white with the occasional egg Very Happy

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Crispyapplepie, to be honest I think they are probably all working off roughly the same data (in any case the models all have a fairly similar output for that range). At present it all rests on how far north a fairly weak band of low pressure tracks as it moves east across the Mediterranean. Predicting how much it will bring is always tricky. I would have thought between 0 and 4cm+ sounds about right on Saturday. So fairly light snow is possible (though not certain) around the Three Valleys, Les Deux Alpes, Alpe D'Huez etc. A little less the further north you go. Could change though...

tobymory, no, not really that is too far out. There are suggestions that there may be some sort of pattern change in the air... but nothing tangible...

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