Completely echo comments from @Drew Carey, this topic is great to read, I too am learning lots of bits about how the weather systems work, how unpredictable they can be, and what influences where we end up.
It's also I suspect incredibly difficult to forecast. Waking up on Monday morning this week to see unexpected snow falling on the webcam at Alpe D'Huez, when there was nothing on the horizon just 12 hours before, shows how quickly things can change.
But a sincere thanks to those members of the forum who are 'weather experts' - your views and interpretation of the various charts, and the time spent doing it, is really appreciated.
We just need a bit more snow don't we!!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
@Drew Carey, we have an idea of what will happen in the next couple of weeks. It looks better for Southern Europe on predictions from EC and CFS. But IMHO, there is a similar chance of cooler winds to the North meaning more snow for the Northern Alps. The charts have been unseasonably inaccurate from past approx 5 days. But when we get into proper winter, if we ever do, the charts will become much more accurate to 10 days and further in some cases. Trends over 24 hours, even better a few days, are the best way to see confidence levels rise.
By the time you get there, some patterns will have changed in particular Negative NAO and AO around the 28th.
I will do an update into the long term in the next couple of days.
New to this and coming to Verbier Jan 29. I've looked at articles on NAO. And still am trying to figure out if positive is good for the northwestern alps. I saw where it seemed negative for much of December, hence the cold here in the US. What is the outlook for January?
I fear I chose poorly by coming to the alps late January and JAckson hole in late feb instead of the reverse. Would not be the first time.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
06z is interesting for the E Austrian alps. I've been away for a couple of days and things have certainly changed.
Storm Barbara is throwing up predictions for 130 mph gusts on cairngorm summit. Unlikely to be quite as strong as that but it is looking a tad breezy up there.
ECM 0z is a real horror, dry until January and the jet stream travelling north of Scotland on Boxing day. While of course this could change back to a colder scenario, is such a large swing possible? It seems unlikely, but as has said, this last week the forecasts have got it very wrong.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:
It is said that the Italians are the best at snow making with the Austrians a very very close second. (Even Obergurgl has loads of snow making capability, much of it mobile machines rather than fixed installations). I get the impression that some French resorts are struggling because they haven't made the same investment. Is this the case?
I don't think it is necessarily the case that the Italians are 'better' at making snow than everyone else, its just that they have to, at least in the Dolomites.
Making snow is also more suited to the drier and colder eastern side of the Alps, than the west. The French have made snow in the 3V since at least the mid 1980s, but it always seemed very icy when I was there, perhaps because of higher humidity and steeper cross camber slopes?
The Dolomites are a perfect place to make snow (fortunately) for all sorts of reasons. It is no coincidence that Techno Alpin, Leitner and Prinroth are all based there.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Bennyboy1 wrote:
@davidof, this is very interesting and I had no idea if the running cost of production. I wonder if there are any profitability stats for the Austrian resorts that have used it for some years?
That would be interesting but even Austrian resorts must be using more and more artificial snow. The big French resorts can probably manage things for quite some time yet - the places where the CDA has invested.
> The French have made snow in the 3V since at least the mid 1980s
First snowmaking in France was installed in the early 1960s and I think Flaine has had snowmaking since 1973. In fact the Champ du Feu in the Vosges (550m) opened on the 26th October 1963 thanks to snowmaking!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Ptspeak, broadly speaking a -NAO (generally a more blocked set up) indicates increased likelihood of colder weather across Europe, but also tends to suggest the likelihood of drier weather in the northern Alps and more precipitation in the southern Alps.
A + NAO tends to indicate increased Atlantic influence and tends to lead to wetter (though sometimes milder) weather in the Northern Alps and drier weather in the southern Alps.
The NAO has just crept positive having been negative since mid November.
But I would suggest caution on this. The NAO index itself is simply a way of measuring relative strength of high and low pressure in the Atlantic. Moreover it gives you a very broad trend, not a steer on what the detailed weather at any given point will look like.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Nozawaonsen, thanks, I guess I'm just looking for something that indicates a fundamental shift in patterns rather than wishing for a rogue system to break the trend. I still have 5 plus weeks to go so a lot can change.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Quote:
First snowmaking in France was installed in the early 1960s and I think Flaine has had snowmaking since 1973. In fact the Champ du Feu in the Vosges (550m) opened on the 26th October 1963 thanks to snowmaking!
That was about the same time as the Mar Lodge ski area in Deeside
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Could there finally be a breakdown around the 2nd?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Peter S, brilliant idea .....
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snow forecast has revised the temps up for Zillertal resorts and snow chance down, Bergflex now similar. Oh well!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
It's ok everyone, I've sacrificed the first born, and I'll be out in the alps on the 30th, it's always snows when I get there as a sign of gratitude from the snow gods for the sacrifice.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Peter S wrote:
That was about the same time as the Mar Lodge ski area in Deeside
Those are the days when we thought we could tame nature. Interesting to see the Scots were snow-making years before it became popular in Europe.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Now Morris over at WePowder is talking about some snow for the Northern Alps over the weekend. I know we've all been chatting about it and it seems to not be much in the forecast, unless this happens? http://wepowder.com/forum/topic/235439
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Little Martin, Here's hoping - too bad about your son but thanks (to him) for taking one for the rest of us
@snowheads68, on the basis of one op run in FI? I'd say not, but who knows.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
@Drew Carey, we have an idea of what will happen in the next couple of weeks.
I'll politely disagree with this. Not least because you then go on to say that it looks better in the southern Alps on one outlook then that it looks better in the northern Alps in another. Which rather sounds like the outlook is unclear.
I'd also disagree that models are accurate 10 days or more out in "proper winter."
That said the models have been fairly accurately sticking to their guns on the 5-7 day outlook. If people insist on trying to follow FI charts and cherry picking their favourite outcomes the amount of "downgrades" and "disappointments" will be relatively high.
@Little Martin, Here's hoping - too bad about your son but thanks (to him) for taking one for the rest of us
I have a son?!?? Better get him scarified too, I was hoping to save money on lift passes
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
scarified its snow we want not grass!
And shame you can only sacrifice your first born the once. I guess you could manage your only child every year??
After all it is free
After all it is free
Rinse and repeat 12z GFS. Light snow in coming week in Austria, but high pressure never far away then rebuilding in FI. Overall the outlook remains dry.
Time to roll this out again and point out the wait will be worth it when the change does come.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Thinking of booking a last minute ski holiday flying out Boxing Day coming home on NY day. Would you bother or leave it? How bad is the conditions across the Alps? I would be flying into Basel so would want to ski somewhere within 2/3 hours of there
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Ricklovesthepowder, fly to Turin and chose somewhere in the Milky Way. That's where the best of the conditions are right now.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@rob@rar, @Ricklovesthepowder, see my post about our road trip today to Pragelato / Sestrierre in the Via Lattea thread.
As I'm not allowed to post pictures of people actually skiing in this thread
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@rob@rar, flights are ridiculous. I can fly Manchester to Basel to £140 so ideally I need somewhere near to there
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@rob@rar, flights are ridiculous. I can fly Manchester to Basel to £140 so ideally I need somewhere near to there
In that case I probably wouldn't bother. Save your cash for later in the season when conditions will be better.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@rob@rar, thank you. That's what I was thinking.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, as you know, I agree with you to a significant extent, but I do still look at it slightly differently. To take this upcoming spell as an example, the models picked up on low pressure coming over the top of a flatter block and delivering some ppn around Christmas a good 10 days out.
Of course the specifics were unclear, and in the end there will probably be much less than originally shown, but broadly speaking, a trend was correctly identified. Run after run showed outcomes along those lines, and consequently the discussion over the past 5 or 6 days was relevant. I think this kind of situation needs to be acknowledged alongside the undeniable truth that details of ppn, temperature, etc in specific locations can only be accurately forecast a couple of days out.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@WellingtonBoot, don't disagree, see page one post one. Trends can be seen as long as people are patient enough for them. But there is also a risk of over-interpreting events that are in low res anyway (which by it's nature tends to make trends easier to spot and detail harder to identify). It remains the case however that a one off chart in FI is just a possibility being thrown out by the model. It's the repetition (or not) that is of interest. As for accuracy beyond 10 days. Well.
@davidof, the webcams looked ok this morning but maybe I am wrong.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
First snow since 1979 in the Sahara.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@rob@rar, flights are ridiculous. I can fly Manchester to Basel to £140 so ideally I need somewhere near to there
Head north.
Sweden has good conditions right now.
Are and Salen are just about 100% open.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
davidof wrote:
Bennyboy1 wrote:
@davidof, this is very interesting and I had no idea if the running cost of production. I wonder if there are any profitability stats for the Austrian resorts that have used it for some years?
That would be interesting but even Austrian resorts must be using more and more artificial snow. The big French resorts can probably manage things for quite some time yet - the places where the CDA has invested.
> The French have made snow in the 3V since at least the mid 1980s
First snowmaking in France was installed in the early 1960s and I think Flaine has had snowmaking since 1973. In fact the Champ du Feu in the Vosges (550m) opened on the 26th October 1963 thanks to snowmaking!
A general rule of thumb in recent years has been that North American resorts make about a 10-15% operating profit margin, while Western European stations make around 5-10%:
@Ptspeak,
Here is some NAO data into the New Year. Just saying, the NAO doesn't affect the Rockies in North America, just the East Coast and even that isn't much. The NAO usually makes its effect on Western Europe.
@nozawaonsen, I politely disagree with your statement and your whole thing against 'FI'. Third week forecasts have skill, enough to be able to spot general patterns. I have spotted numerous snowstorms in various locations from 14-16 days out and just recently a bunch of weather folk spotted a tropical cyclone off NW Australia 12 days out. It is a fact that charts are less accurate during the Spring compared to Winter, because of the unpredictability, and looking at the climate we really haven't left Spring or Pre-Season yet. I get where you are coming from, but the March of Long range forecasts carry on....
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
- your views and interpretation of the various charts, and the time spent doing it, is really appreciated.
