 Poster: A snowHead
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moffatross, which website do you use for those snow fallen charts like the one above?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It looks like the west may get a better start to the season than the east, for the first time in a while.
The rain and wind could still spoil the party, though.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ricklovesthepowder, the bits you can fiddle with in the URL are in brackets here ... http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_(00/06/12/18)_UTC_05Grad/(00-192)_(23/24).gif
The things in brackets: The first set (00/06/12/18 ) is the GFS model run time for each of its 4 daily runs. The second (00-192) is the 'up to' period or if you change the 24 to a 23 in the third (23/24), you'll get only modelled snowfall in that 6 hour period.
So the actual URL for the chart I posted was http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC_05Grad/156_24.gif
Swap the 00/06/12/18 around and you'll quickly see how much random variance there is between GFS runs within each 24 hour period and why there is so much periodic wrist slashing when the fantasy snowfall ebbs and wanes. 
One of my other bookmarked favourites which extracts data from GFS is http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/moffat and also updates 4 times daily. This isn't for the mountains but is very good for resort locations & lets you can change the location very easily to say Fort William or Serre Chevalier to see what (might) be on the way.
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Looks like there's a chance of some fairly big dumps in the west, not quite as much in the east, over the next wee while - fingers crossed the forecasts will verify and we can get the season well and truly started. 
Anyone else kinda not believing our potential luck given the current Alpine snow drought and not for the first time in recent seasons either!?
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roga, shhhh, it hasn't happened yet! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Webcams looking like there's been loads of rain. Bit damp here in Glasgow.
moffatross, just itching to get on snow now!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Moffat feels like it's being washed away. Again. There's been another 78 mm rain here in the last 24 hours according to my garden weather station. The squall line marking the cold front passed less than an hour ago and the temperature has dropped from 11.2C to 5.4C in that time.
So, it's turned much colder in the NW of Britain again & snow's falling over the West Highlands now. If you put any trust in the weather models, we shouldn't get a sector quite as warm as that one for a good while.
Nevis webcam
Glencoe webcam
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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moffatross, Talking about a temperature drop, approaching Warrington 20 minutes ago, I could see the clouds gathering ahead. Within 10 minutes the temperature had gone from 15c down to 7c!!! It's bloody freezing! I thinkthe pennines could get a dusting overnight!
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| moffatross wrote: |
Moffat feels like it's being washed away. Again. There's been another 78 mm rain here in the last 24 hours according to my garden weather station. The squall line marking the cold front passed less than an hour ago and the temperature has dropped from 11.2C to 5.4C in that time.
So, it's turned much colder in the NW of Britain again & snow's falling over the West Highlands now. If you put any trust in the weather models, we shouldn't get a sector quite as warm as that one for a good while.
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Yes hope so - I'm not a fan of long range forecasts especially this one http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-summary-2011;sess=
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The snow on that cam will come & go a bit over the next few days but with net gains on each cycle, it should look pretty sexy by Monday.
Fresh snow to be seen on the higher level roads in the South of Scotland too ... http://trafficscotland.org/lev/#
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Poster: A snowHead
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Looking way better than some of the slopes here in Val 'D.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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snowing on and off for the past while at village level in Aviemore (alternating between wet snow-sleet-rain). Went for a reccy up the glen a while ago, snow on the hill road from just below sugar bowl car park on up. Pretty wild up there with snow whipping spindrift to zero vis at times and wind also having the rather disconcerting effect of hard packing the thin layer of snow to the road and even polishing it - could be a laugh driving up there in the morning if that keeps up. Temps hovering at about zero at cas car park (and not much higher back down in the village)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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barry, The hills should look good tomorrow morning then!!!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Looks like Glencoe has had some overnight..
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keep it coming please
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Alans deep bath, a hell of a lot more than Cairngorm it appears!
More to come west and east but looks like the west will get the lions share!
Oh and the Techno Alpin snowmaking kit has arrived at Glencoe and Cairngorm, there's a techie come along with the machines and he'll be helping both areas getting the guns started - Glencoe were planning on opening on the 17th anyway even if it was just the machine made snow on the lower slope ... somehow I think they may get a wee hand from mother nature though
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Alans deep bath wrote: |
| moffatross, let me know if you want to head up for a look around when the snow arrives... Happy to pay petrol/drive from Glasgow onwards. |
Alans deep bath, I'm thinking of heading up to the Mighty One on Sunday. Not ball-bustlingly early though, maybe going by Glasgow at say 10 am, would give us time to hike/skin to summit & find a couple of skiable lines down. My Skoda Big Foot is winter tyred now so it should defeat the A82 & access road. 
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moffatross, Hmmmmm, room for 1 more?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Remember to post pics!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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moffatross, lurvely!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Earlier today on Winterhighland, I queried whether touring anywhere this weekend may be a possibility.
Responses vary from 'In a word, no' to suggesting that high winds may scupper any plans 
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'm a fan of the weather forecasting by Piers Corbyn. Here's what the latest says:
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Widespread snow especially in North on
often North or NW'ly flow, turning very
mild or warm at month-end / New Year
Main snowy/wet/stormy periods through December 2011:
2-3 Dec. Rain turning to sleet and snow (blizzards in Scotland on high ground)
rain not snow in S/W.
~7 Dec. Heavy snow in Scotland, rain/sleet in South England.
10-12 Dec. Snow in Scotland / sleet in central parts and rain showers in SW.
15-17 Dec. Widespread snow, blizzards in Scotland and North.
20-21 Dec. Heavy snow in Scotland. Snow showers/sleet elsewhere.
22-24 Dec. Snow heavy at times especially East.
25-26 Dec. Snow continues in many parts.
29-30 Dec. Wet and windy - mild (very mild by New years Day). |
He's normally fairly spot on give or take a day or two in my experience 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Bode Swiller, I hope he's wrong about the 29-30 Dec, at least for the Highlands!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Piers Corbyn is a cockmplete charlatan of meteorology.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Some nice piccies on Winterhighland here from H11lly showing conditions at Cairngorm today, looks like some of the runs at the top would be ready to go with a bit of bashing.
Word has it Sunday may be the big day - ops meeting tomorrow to discuss it but Saturday's forecast is too windy, Sunday calmer - snow should hopefully be coming in between now and then and beyond.
You might also notice the new Techno Alpin snow machine in the piccies, I believe destined to be placed near the new water sump by the Sheiling - would be good if they built up the base in the Gunbarrel so the Cas can open ASAP, with the traverse looking doable that could give top to mid station riding.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| moffatross wrote: |
| Piers Corbyn is a cockmplete charlatan of meteorology. |
I think he's more a sunspot man. Anyway, all I know is that he seems to get it right more than others and from further out. While everyone was predicting heavy snow and arctic temps for end of October into November, he called it correctly.
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There's no way sunspots could have that much effect over the timescales he's talking about. I don't really see how that kind of prediction up there /\ can be anything other than guesswork?
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bobmcstuff, I would have no idea but I know a farmer who swears by his predictions and, as far as I can tell, over the last year or so I've been sent the monthly forecasts, he's far more right than wrong. Anyway, it's there in black and white above so let's see if he gets December right. If not... I'll get me coat.
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Bode Swiller, there's a lot of characters issuing outlooks for months in advance & most of them don't take themselves seriously, whatever their experience & credentials, on account of the verification on even the most worthy organisations is so very poor. That one bloke could buck the trend of the world's best met organisations when outlooking many weeks ahead for a few tiny locations on the planet seems outlandish and tea leaves would be equally as useful as sunspots as indicators at that time range and resolution of synoptic detail necessary to make specific weather predictions. There is a long thread on a weather forum which, in fairness, also concludes that we should wait & see but amongst the BS, discusses some of the psychology, pseudo-science and tactics behind his forecasts ...
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71407-corbyn-winter-warning-of-exceptional-uk-cold-and-snow/page__hl__piers%20corbyn
My view though from remembering many of the outlandish things he's foretold in the past that turned out to be utter fails is that PC is adept at firing lots of 'forecasts' both sequentially and in parallel with each other at various eager media outlets but doesn't have to be concerned much about verification after the forecast has expired. When challenged, he'll say that he got the trend right but the target wrong but with a climate circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that goes west to east and south to north, that will ever be the case i.e. there will be exactly the weather pattern predicted happening somewhere in that timeframe, not so far away from a spot in the UK on the global scale. But as the audience for the forecasts didn't really care for the detail or dates much in the first place but only appreciated the exciting new article about another supposed imminent weather related apocalypse, they won't mind either. The editors/commissioners of his 'forecasts' in turn begin to believe or tolerate the spin they're paying for because it sells them lots of newspapers.
So in the end his forecasts (and memories of their accuracy) become like those things you half remembered happening but only did because someone else told you they happened. Whatever, it's mostly harmless fun & would be all OK in my book if he (and his readers) didn't take him(self) so seriously.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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moffatross, yeah well, amazing scientist that I am, I print it out each month and stick it on the fridge and I'm usually mildly impressed. That said, even I could forecast snow in Scotland in December and have a better than 50% chance of being right. Sun and fluffy clouds in the summer with the occasional shower? Hey, I'm getting good at this.
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I am a fan of piers corbyn too. There are many who try to discredit him and joe bastardi, of whom im a fan too. These guys do their best to be upfront and honest on their forecasting, the opposite to those in the vat scam pocketsand control of so called co2 lead climate warming and ipcc scammed stats.
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FAQ
Or in the Campsies. Or anywhere really. 
