 brian
brian
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| skanky wrote: |
Anything after Tuesday is detail I don't really want to get involved in yet  |
I hear what you're saying, but it's damn hard to keep the excitement subdued.
Even if we just got Friday-Tuesday though, Scotland (esp the NE) should be a treat on top of this week's base.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| I hear what you're saying, but it's damn hard to keep the excitement subdued. |
Yeah,...though I'm going to get some more firewood and plant fleece in.
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| Even if we just got Friday-Tuesday though, Scotland (esp the NE) should be a treat on top of this week's base. |
You may not want to develop an illness until next week.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not looking like getting much warmer (for more than a couple fo hours Sat) in the Alps now, looks chilly (FL about 800m) all next week with the possibility of it being very cold towards the end . Should see some snow in all parts between Saturday & Monday, clearing by or during Tuesday. After that not much stuff expected (though too early for much confidence), though maybe some decent snow showers. Pyrennees should get some stuff early in the week and could continue to get some snow on and off all week. Difficult wee to forecast as the detail is changing from one run to the next (it's down to the track of a LP system moving S through northern & central Europe), so I have not particularly high confidence.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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As posted on Blighty thread:
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| The models are really starting to have a problem with next week's set-up. There's now little agreement (between runs let alone models) as to whether the winds will be full-blown easterlies and how long it will last. It could be touch and go for Scotland (esp. early next week), but I'd expect enough snow to make people happy. The NW of Scotland *might* get a bit warmer Mon/Tue as the blocking HP's to the NW are brough a bit further SE. We're still on for cold and snow (early) next week, esp. in the East and cold and snow for Scotland for the weekend. After that, there's a sort of trend to downgrade it, but as it's changing every few hours, I really wouldn't like to say until Monday. Interestingly, every now and then GFS wants to create a LP over Ireland and move it down the west coast, up the channel and into France. If this did happen (not in the latest run), it could bring lots of snow to southern areas (though if it dragged enough warm air north, that could be rain) and eventually pile into the Alps (bringing warmer precipitation if not actually rain). It's done it twice now, and each time left it out of the following run. Wouldn't normally log on over the weekend, but might have to this time. Could be interesting next week, if not as cold and snowy for as long as we originally thought. |
No reason though to change what I wrote in the post above. Some details may change but they have always been at low confidence.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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La Rosiere meteo shows snow Sat pm and all day Sunday, still very cold though.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Now changed to snow until Weds.
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guys, thanks from one ignorant skier for all this input. I sail in UK and understand the weather patterns and implications pretty well, but Alpine weather is still a complete mystery, I have no feel for it at all, and just need to look at forecasts - and read your comments. It seems that the continental features of air mass movements round the Alps are harder to read than our procession of lows marching across to the north of us - with an occasional one to the south, to keep us on our toes. A lot of people must be grateful for the thought and effort you all put in. I am currently in UK sitting out the "vacances scolaires" - then will be back. It's looking good.
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I've been in the Alps over a year now and I haven't worked it out yet. Down south (Avignon area) it was easy. Northerly winds meant blue skies. Sometimes weeks on end. No weather ever came from the east. If a change to a (humid) south westerly was in the air, the scorpions made an appearance 24 hours before the clouds. Never failed!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Sorry, not really been paying much attention to Europe this last week - I've been focusing on Blighty. Anyway, if the latest GFS is to be believed I can't see much snow for any of the alps before the latter half of next week (maybe some in the sourthern alps, but hard to tell). It does however look to get very cold on Monday, before warming up slightly Tuesday and cooling down again towards the end of the week. Not looked at the other models in detail, but all show a cold plume of air being brought down from the north.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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MetO is putting the really cold air a bit further east, Monday, but it'll still be very cold in the Alps, I think.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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_thumb.jpg) 16° below earlier this morning when we arrived at Villaroger. It has been cold for a long time now - took a prolonged and constant spell below freezing for the 20m high waterfall in the pic, from what is only a very small stream, to look like this - and it's only a couple of hundred metres above Villaroger - at an altitude of about 1300m. Looks like it's set to stay that way into early March.
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hasn't snowed here for 2 days, sunny yesterday and today, announced on the local radio as a belle surprise but absolutely freezing, wind has swung around to the SW and 55kms today in La Rosiere, no wind in La Thuile but snow conditions not good there, not much about and very hard and icy. Snow conditions in La Rosiere superb at the moment, so great skiing on all pistes and even better off-piste but avalanche warning still at level 3. Forecast to be cold for at least the rest of week.
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You know it makes sense.
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http://www.avalanche-net.com/meteo/img/cartes/montage.gif
Looks like the cold spell may come to end around Thursday of next week, if the above forecasts are correct. A change from the northerly airflow to a south-westerly bringing a fair amount of moisture and some considerably warmer temperatures is predicted (at the moment).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Local meteo is forecasting snow fro tomorrow pm here. Wind has been in the SW fro a couple of days now, usually the precursor to a change of weather. Sun has shone all day, Tony Ellwood is going home with a nice tan.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Strange - the websites say the winds are from the NW today, shifting back to the North for a couple of days - it was a pretty bitter northerly hitting Villaroger earlier today, and a freezing wind from due north blasting up the Apocalypse snowpark in Arc 1800 on Thursday afternoon. Local variations perhaps?
Hope for the southern Alps.... if the much needed precipitation actually falls as snow and not rain, Thursday/Friday!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Skanky, David and PG
Guys, came back from Courchevel a week ago and your predictions were bang on. We had 2 days of snow followed by 4 days of sun and left in a blizzard.
Thanks a lot,
Matt
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not sure about today, but from tomorrow there will be little/no snow in the Alps until about Thursday when all models (& UKMPO FAX) show a LP system moving up the southern coast of France bringing snow to the whole Alpine region (freezing level looks to me to about 800m in the west and 1000m in the east, but it's a bit early for that sort of detail). For a change southern areas (French southernj Alps, Italy, etc.) look to get the best of it. How far north it stretches and how much it's a bit too far to say, but confidence of most places getting something is reasonably high (and higher the further south you go). The Pyrennees should get some snow from the same system in the south, and the system that'll bring snow and sleet (and some rain) to the southern UK this week, in the north. Amounts don't look huge and freezing level might be about 800-1000m.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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anyone care to gamble/guess/stick a finger in the air for the rest of march?
Off to Courchevel for the end of season so hoping the cold/snowy weather continues!
regards,
greg
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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La Rosiere meteo forecasts snow from tomorrow until Mon. Still very cold and quite windy.
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Most models want to keep the curent set-up for the next week with the HP to the west of the UK to expand/move slightly eastwards and bring HP to western areas. The eastern side and Europe will be subject to northerly winds bringing cold air and wintry precipitation. There's a pretty good agreement between the separate models and different model runs, so some variation on this theme looks set in for at a week (might be longer, but I don't look that far ahead). GFS & JMA want to keep dumping snow on and off all week, and GEM has similar but lower amounts. I haven't looked at others to try and work out whether they agree precip-wise (though the general synoptic set-up is very similar). The southern Alps should get some stuff over the next few days but after that amounts look lower. The Pyrennees look to get less again, but should still get some snow throughout the week. Should remain cold with FLs at roughly 500m (give or take).
See sig.
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Its amazing to think we are in March already and January type weather is persisting. Looks good for my easter trip back to Peisey-Vallandry, although the base is still relatively thin there.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Dunno what's happened to Skanky, but as I now have a vested interest (less than 2 weeks to go!) I'm starting to hope that the latest GFS precipitation forecast model is accurate for us who'll be in the Southern FRENCH Alps (in case Manda is looking...)
Look at the lump that's around on Thursday 17th & Friday 18th March on the bottom row! Furthermore - look at that lot out in the Atlantic! If I remember rightly, PG says this is a good direction for precipitation to be coming from for Serre Che, so here's hoping...
(n.b. large image posted here replaced by link below - site admin)
check out these maps
Just hope it stays cold enough to fall as snow & not rain...
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carled, sorry, I got out of the habit.
Okay had a quick look and apart from some precipitation (snow) moving away from Switzerland and Austria overnight, the only near-timeframe for anything of any note seems to be the weekend. All the models want to run the LP system, that's been threatening to run down the N Sea from Fri onwards, down through northern Europe. This should bring some snow to northern and eastern parts of the Alps (it may get into the French parts, but southern and Italian parts will probably miss out on anything decent). So we're left with a series of LP systems to the west, on the other side of a ridge of HP from the N, which extends down into Europe and a compex LP system in NE Europe moving Eastwards. After the weekend (from about Monday onwards), the models start to diverge.
UKMO splits the HP to our west, and moves the southern portion SE and deteriorates it as it goes. The LP system over NE Euope remains in situ and continues to bring northerlies to NE Scotland. The LP systems to our west get diverted SE and start to edge into western France and the southern Channel. This could bring warm air into Europe, and some precipitation, esp. to the Alps and Pyrennees. .
GFS has the HP build over the UK and ridge into northern Europe sending most precipitation north, but runs some small LPs along the northern Med which could bring some snow to southern Pyrennees and Alps.
ECMWF has the HP move quite quickly into the UK, and then out over northern Europe. The western LPs move into Scotland and look like they could bring warmer, wetter air to most parts of Europe.
The other models show variations on the above two themes. My current money is on a variation between ECMWF and GFS with the emphasis on ECMWF (though I think it's moving things a little too quickly).
It's worth noting that this is for the GFS 06z run, and the ECMWF & UKMO 00z runs. The 12z runs will soon be available to the professionals, if not already (and us a lot later), so any changes may well already be reflected in professional forecasts. Also, as no models are in much agreement after Monday, and as all have made noticeable changes in the last two runs, I'd say confidence for anything after Sun/Mon is quite low.
BTW I've not ignored Scotland, I think it's covered well elsewhere. But just for completeness, blizzards in the E this weekend, and snow (showers) for most of it. remaining cold and windy into the early part of next week. After that, depends on which scenarios above comes off.
[EDIT] 12z GFS slows down the formation of the HP over the UK, and runs a secondary LP down the north sea/western Europe, bringing precipitation to the Alps (and cold air to Blighty) over Tuesday. This run is different enough to show how much difficulty the models are having coping with the situation from Monday onwards.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Well the latest GFS has come quite a lot into line with ECMWF (no UKMO output last night), and this Saturday could be the last snowfall of any note in the Alps or Pyrennees for at least a week. Both models move and build a large HP over central Europe and start bringing LP systems north, through the UK and northern Europe a bit like early winter. Things should warm up a fair bit, too. Scotland should get a decent snow over the weekend, and then from early next week winds should shift to the SW and bring more precipitation, which might be rain lower down at least (but could bring snow). Moderate confidence that by the end of next week Europe will have warmed considerably with the northern half becoming a lot wetter and southern half a lot drier. Details still to be firmed up and the HP is not definite to build and stay in place. How far south the precip gets will depend on that, but FL is looking to be quite high.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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...so basically you're saying that through the coming week, most of the snow in Serre Chevalier will melt and then it will rain on us when we go a week on Sunday? Or am I looking at this over-negatively here...
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carled, doubt it'll melt, but it's looking to be warm. I'm only looking as far as Friday at the moment too and that's far too far to take too seriously. However once these HPs become established they can be difficult to shift. It depends on how active the Atlantic can get. The sea temps are as cold as they get (seasonally), but as the northern hemisphere warms up we may some something. At the moment though that's all looking to move north. Keep your eye on Mon./Tues though as there might be a small LP bringing precip to the Pyrennees and southern parts of France (possibly the Alps - how far north it'll get, if it arrives is uncertain). We'll have another look on Monday as FAX charts will be showing the end of the week then, and we'll have a better idea if it'll break down then. GFS long range is suggesting it to get cooler and wetter in Geneva after 19th, but there's far too much uncertainty in the ensembles at the moment, and as I say that's way too far ahead to take with any confidence.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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With all due respect to skanky, Matt, our mini-bus driver, has told me it will snow on Sunday. The reason, it's transfer day and literally every transfer day this season it's snowed. He thinks it's personal, just so that he has to put chains on. In fact we have used chains more often this season than at any time in the last 3 years, we've almost worn out one set, they've been used so much they've stretched and need replacing.
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Poster: A snowHead
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How far is La Ros from Serre Che, David?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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carled, I'd guess at about 3 hours via Grenoble, my younger son lives in Grenoble and does the drive in about 2 hours.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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David@traxvax, yeah, when I said it'll snow on Saturday, the current thinking is starting Saturday evening and could well last into and through the night. It might well still be snowing on Sunday morning, but I'd guess it'll just be lots of fresh stuff at that time.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Looking at the synoptics it seems to me that there is a big high over the Alps which means a period of freeze/thaw. It shouldn't be a long-term problem.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Just spoken to my son in La Rosiere, he said that for the second day running it's been 3 degrees at 2,000 metres, not what the forecast was showing at all.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 11-03-05 18:36; edited 1 time in total
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Well, skanky, good thing too I'd say. It was naffing freezing most of the time at half-term. Lets have some sun and slush for Easter!
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Chris Bish, if the base can cope with it. I suppose that the numbers will have died down. Not that I'm bothered, of course.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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skanky, I'll have one for you, down the glacier at Tignes if necessary. In my snowHeads t-shirt of course.
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Chris Bish,
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FAQ
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