Strikes me looking ahead over the next two weeks that the high mountain 2200m plus could be building up a decent base as we move into November
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow to 2000-2100 locally last night, with a few more cm's to 1800-1900 possible this evening. I tend to rate all snowfalls as having some meaning. These ones are unlikely to last long with a mild dry spell over the weekend into monday, could see 10c again at 850hpa. Then another round of mid level snow likely on the 31st as a shallow low crosses to the north.
All preparing the way for the next battleground around the 3rd. Incredible how stationary this pattern has become.....almost a carbon copy of the last 2 weeks as atlantic lows try to reach the holy grail of the north sea. Almost no change from the previously posted 3 anomaly charts over the last few days, ECM and GEM holding back the core of the low over UK, while GFS has it further east.
While it's just a difference of a few hundred km's, the impact on temps for the alps is several degrees....mild SW-W vs cooler NW flow.
Looking further out, all indications are the low will once again retrace its steps back west a little, if it even gets to the north sea in the first place. Obviously this can change, but it's a consistent feature for now. Here's EC46 for week 6th-13th Nov
So endlessly stormy for UK/Ire and much of western europe with temps fluctuating around average and plenty of more snow likely at altitude.
Looking at the latest OP runs (7 different models) again for the 3rd, probably a 4-3 split on ideal evolution vs less ideal. The first 4 looking better.
Quick look at ECM v GFS and you can clearly see the temperature difference, ECM mean is 2-3 degrees warmer, or 500m in freeze level terms.
One small sign of encouragement for the 3rd on ECM is the large cluster of ensembles that get 850hpa closer to zero, while the mean is being held up by a few stray warm outliers.
Last 4 GFS runs to the 4th, recent first.....Scandinavia continuing well, while alps are in the 50-150cm range, but it's the GFS...often overdoing both ppn and depth of cold
GFS 06z just out....with a FL to 800-1200m next Friday...low odds I think but good to see it cropping up
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Montana and Cascades got 1-2ft of fresh this week.
@Whitegold, good vid, but very much in line with many other experts, all going for the safety of the El Nino analogues, mild and wet start, back loaded cold.
Interesting that she mentioned -NAO association with El Nino. We've already been in a -NAO phase since 10th Sep, but not so much due to an atlantic ridge, more so that the azores-iberia area has seen anomalous low pressure. Really hope we do get more amplification in the atlantic ridge as that's always the best set up for NW-N "arctic invasions". NAO is just a pressure index between 2 points, so it can still be negative with low pressure over Iceland as long as pressure is even lower over Azores, which is not ideal. Also you get west based -NAO's, where the ridge is too close to eastern seaboard, again bringing mild air to alps. Very much depends on the pattern and position of ridge / trough, rather than the raw index reading.
No change to the outlook, the main low can't seem to get east of London, stalling once again around the 3rd. GFS mean has now back tracked SW a little closer to the others, which keeps the colder air over Spain and warmer air to the east.
GFS pressure, followed by the 3 temp anomaly charts for 3rd.....north and western alps right on the boundary per ECM and GEM, bit too close for comfort
Op runs still vary a lot but most of them getting down to about 2c at 850hpa NW alps which would be the middle ground per ECM / GFS ensembles, about 1600-1700m FL. But that's just the average outlook, could easily swing a few hundred meters either way. I rate the UKMO as much as the main 3, so it's good to see that one on board with a better atlantic ridge and almost a NW flow. Seeing a 5-2 split overall. While GFS 06z sticks with a brief dip to 1200m.
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@Whitegold, I’ll go for that
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Can't quite decide if it's good or bad? She draws the cold line below the main alpine ridge but I kind of envisage the ridge as the real divider?
Or are we saying southern Alps are going to be cold and snowy also?
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I'm back on Snowheads after a 6 month break, encouraged by snow above Val Thorens and Obergurgl, even a dusting on the peaks above Schladming.
Excited. Hoping for a far snowier/colder Alpine winter this time around.
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6/6 on 12z for the 3rd, and several reload the 5th, ECM isn't out yet. Funny enough GFS is the least snowy this time....which maybe tells it's own message, or it's just Op volatility, as none of them really look that similar to each other, esp re blocking to the north. Either way, moving in the right direction.
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Early November starting to look good in Zermatt.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Some models showing 100mph winds from thursday over english channel and northern france.
Tomorow into tuesday also looks heavier and colder than previously....could see 30-40mm, starting around 2600m but quickly dropping to 1600 in the NW, so should see first layer of snow below 1800m.
Then the real fun starts ....a pretty amazing outlook right up to mid month as the altantic lows keep piling in. All the time reinforcing the cooler airmass. Worth noting that since mid Oct the models have been underestimating the level of arctic cold, possibly due to rapid refreeze.
EC46 week 6-13 and week 13-20 show a net NW flow. And the 3 mean charts for 8th Nov show a potential switch to northerly flow as the northern blocking regresses further NW and a mid atlantic ridge pops up.
At this rate I'll be easing up on the charts/posts earlier than usual.... touring plans already being hatched, especially if the experts are right about the mild start to winter. I think winters in the last 10 years I've seen have had better novembers than decembers, certainly by mid dec the strat PV is usually well on it's way to peak strength, so it makes sense that colder outbreaks are more likley before it gets too strong. Having said that, this year again may be one of those exceptions. Combination of Nino and easterly QBO means a higher chance of a sudden stratospheric warming, with some signs arleady that one might happen early this year, ie Dec instead of Jan/Feb. One of the main drivers being prolonged Scandi / Urals blocking as trop led disruption puts pressure on the upper layers.
And signs of strat warming at 10hpa consistently showing on the EC46 for late Nov into Dec.....this would keep the AO weak, so high lattitude blocking and better chance of cold to mid lats
Anyway that's all way out in the future. Time to focus on how much snow might fall into the weekend and to what levels. Comparing ECM to GFS...
The previously circled ensemble cluster for the 3rd on ECM has worked out as the warm outliers disappeared. It's a little warmer than GFS in the near term, but still trending down into week 2. The 850 mean temp on both is remarkably flat hovering around 2c for over a week as things stand. There is a little spike on the 1st and 4th as minor ridges follow the troughs into europe but mere counter trend blips, dead cats.
Last 3 GFS runs ranging 100-180cm, which isn't out of line with other models, eg GEM total ppn
And a good call by @Boarderfarce a few days ago for the western alps.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Next week looks like its building up so!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Strong foehn and very hot in the French Alps today.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@davidof, indeed! positively balmy
Poster: A snowHead
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It was 5-10c at 3000m.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow down to 1700m around Grenoble today. Not a lot though but outlook is cool and unsettled for the next few days.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Proper autumnal morning today, cool and damp, piles of wet leaves blowing around. First time in a while no Föhn and the mountains not visible. Looking at the St Anton webcam a fall of snow down to mid mountain level. Maybe more to come later this week. Certainly looking more optimistic. Flew to Barcelona this morning, the alps were hidden in thick cloud, blue skies over the Med, small amounts of white visible on the distant peaks of the Pyrenees.
Livigno, Italy, at 1800m, has 10ft piles of snow in town today.
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@Whitegold, that's because they've got nowhere to put what they've scraped off the roads looks like they had maybe 5-10cms? It's at 1,800m and I've seen more snow in Chamonix at 1,110 in July
Some great views on the webcams tonight with the full moon and snow cover , see the cannons are running in Val Thorens .
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Just had a look at Tignes and you can see The Plough very clearly in the sky - looks lovely tonight
After all it is free
After all it is free
Big puke coming to the European Alps this Thurs to Sun.
Storm Ciaran sweeping thru.
Looks like 30-80cm above 2000m.
Maybe 5-20cm above 1500m, depending on snowline.
Tignes, Verbier, Zermatt, Sestriere should do well, at the western end of the Alps.
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Its the time of year when looking at webcams becomes a morning routine! St Anton looks nice this morning, more to come (apparently) later in the week perhaps down to the village.
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Yeah there's gonna be tons of snow above 2000, so the only question for meadow dwellers is how much might fall to low levels. As usual am looking at NW alps.
Tomorrow into Sat is the first dip towards 0c @850, models showing about 5-10cm to 1500m.
Sat evening will be milder with rain below 2000m at least initially, hopefully compacting rather than washing away any previous falls.
Sun into monday should see the FL slowly make its way down from 1900 to 1300m. This is a very heavy period of snow/rain as there is little to no let up for 48hours. You'd have to think over 50cm above 2000m, maybe 10-15cm at 1500m as it might not get cold enough until monday, per ECM. Keep an eye on short term models Fri/Sat to see if the snowline will drop Sunday afternoon.
Obviously looking out window / webcam will trump the projected numbers / FL's. Often see mid range models (ECM, GFS) back off on ppn totals in the short range, but as long as we are under relatively disturbed low pressure there is scope for steady light snowfall to low levels. Mid range models aren't precise enough to pick up temps in sheltered valleys. Even the Wepowder high-resolution model is only forecasting 7cm by Monday at 1500m PdS.....I'll be very surprised if this is right.
Anyway, back to the future, 8th looking weaker than previously shown....not great agreement on a northerly, should stay cool, but pattern backing west again.
There is a second attempt weekend 11-12th (below)....or really the 5th attempt in 3 weeks to get a low anomaly east of London.
Not much change in the 2 week EC46 charts out to mid nov.....NW flow, blocking to the NE and E......the main improvement over late Oct is lower heights over SE europe and better Azores ridge.
Interesting chart by Matt Hugo, showing the historical analogs for all Novembers with El Nino and an MJO in phase 8 (which is what he expects). Again showing the NE-E block, azores high and W-NW flow into europe.
Further out, prospects for a mild start to winter are hard to come by. Arctic sea ice extent is now above the last 5 years, nearing 9million km2, and towards levels not seen since 2010's.
Very strong signal still for strat warming into early Dec....which should keep the PV disorganised at least, ie cold outbreaks to mid lats. Ensemble mean 10hpa wind speed (dark blue) forecast to be below climate norm....but just shown for interest, can't possibly say if it will happen 5 weeks away. Note a handful of stray ensemble runs going negative, so net easterly wind, which is SSW territory. Equally at the other end of the scale, a few going for strong PV....zonal, mild.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
All going to plan then ?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
All is relative
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Great example of how the foehn and wind direction affects things this morning , check out the La Thuile cams link below , totally white and snowing in La Thuile village at 1450m whilst in other side of the ridge/pass La Rosiere raining above 2000m if not 2200m
Stubai Glacier (Austria) has 30 cm fresh with more to come. Temps later this week also look low enough that the snow will stay (providing the wind doesn't blow it away)
https://www.bergfex.at/stubaier-gletscher/wetter/berg/
Great example of how the foehn and wind direction affects things this morning , check out the La Thuile cams link below , totally white and snowing in La Thuile village at 1450m whilst in other side of the ridge/pass La Rosiere raining above 2000m if not 2200m
Opening on time with some nice cover would be plenty for me!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
There’s certainly enough snow at altitude to open Lac des Vaux but Verbier waiting until next weekend apparently. Glacier 3000m trying to open this weekend although the weather could make it interesting up there!
After all it is free
After all it is free
Rob Mackley wrote:
Great example of how the foehn and wind direction affects things this morning , check out the La Thuile cams link below , totally white and snowing in La Thuile village at 1450m whilst in other side of the ridge/pass La Rosiere raining above 2000m if not 2200m
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