 Poster: A snowHead
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Met Office long-range forecast for the UK now hints at a change in wind direction to a more NWerly pattern with an increased chance of wintry weather towards the end of next week.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Theobane, exactly! I really do have a poor understanding of the science behind meteorology, to be honest. After a very awful year in my local resort last year, I had to start snow watching to find a couple of days worth skiing.
So, I usually use the “snow” options on weather apps to get my forecasts (windy, weatherbell, wxcharts etc) and honestly, I’ve never seen a week as uncertain as the upcoming week.
For the same date and location, it first gave +6C for midday and then -13 with 20cm snowfall and then +9C and then -7 with 6cm snowfall (same model, different runs). Ofcourse, it’s science and not magic and these things happen but I’m starting to think this much uncertainty is not as normal.
From my personal experience, ECMWF is much more accurate for snow and GFS fluctuates but in the end agrees with ECMWF. But ECMWF tends to low-ball some snowfall intensities and GFS is more accurate at that.
I guess, we’ll have a wait a bit more to see how the situation in Europe will turn out
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Cool, il keep an eye out on ECMWF then. Yeah, I remember when I was younger in Val D'Isere I used to never bother to look during season unless I wanted to see if there was any dump coming for some nice off-piste skiing. Those were the days I missed.
Now, going away once a year with my wife I am constantly looking at the weather forecast to make sure it's half way decent.
Oh well, let's see what happens!
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@Theobane, I agree, I fully understand peoples frustrations as most can only put 1 week aside for a ski vacation.
I would recommend wxcharts.com as its free and has a long-ish range. Also has many of the models. I usually use either the “overview” and “winter overview” maps. WeatherBell is a paid app, very very detailed and good. Has very long range and seasonal maps but I don’t think they hold that much accuracy.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ah cool, thank you for the recommendation. Currently using Snow-Forecast but I was having a look around for something else as a way to check against what it predicted.
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@Theobane, I also use snow-forecast. It’s also fun to play around with maps and see how specific locations get snow.
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@Theobane, @defnekasrat, Meteoblue is free and I find it pretty good. It takes in and blends all the major models. Snow-Forecast only reflects one model iirc, personally I don't find it terribly good.
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| Theobane wrote: |
Cool, il keep an eye out on ECMWF then. Yeah, I remember when I was younger in Val D'Isere I used to never bother to look during season unless I wanted to see if there was any dump coming for some nice off-piste skiing. Those were the days I missed.
Now, going away once a year with my wife I am constantly looking at the weather forecast to make sure it's half way decent. |
If you have no option on dates why worry?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It looks like the extremely warm air over the Alps will cool in the next 2 or 3 days and a weak cold front will bring some light snow down to 1250 to 1500 metres later on Thursday. After a brief cooler interval, warm air will return from the west or northwest, persisting for much of the following week. GFS main run is an outlier in that it brings colder air south around 6 Feb. In the longer term, ensembles hint at a trend towards near normal temperatures.
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@kitenski, On one hand you say don't trust any models more than 48 hrs out the very next paragraph you're telling us what it's likely to do a week away. Which is it?!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| James77 wrote: |
| @kitenski, On one hand you say don't trust any models more than 48 hrs out the very next paragraph you're telling us what it's likely to do a week away. Which is it?! |
A significant majority of the ensembles show a downward temperature trend in the longer term and have done so for a few runs, with limited spread in the individual solutions, so I am more confident than usual in the trend. It suggests that this atmospheric state has a high degree of predictability.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| James77 wrote: |
| @kitenski, On one hand you say don't trust any models more than 48 hrs out the very next paragraph you're telling us what it's likely to do a week away. Which is it?! |
A significant majority of the ensembles show a downward temperature trend in the longer term and have done so for a few runs, with limited spread in the individual solutions, so I am more confident than usual in the trend. It suggests that this atmospheric state has a high degree of predictability. |
One can only hope. But this has now been a consistent theme (cooling down in about a week’s time) accompanied with some much needed precipitation.
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@James77, notice I talked about trends long term vs specific forecasts. I think that’s the best you can get from the various models, but all can be wrong so far out.
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You know it makes sense.
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It definitely looks like it's cooling down a bit towards the middle of Feb now. The models might not be as accurate that far out, but if they're 80% accurate rather than 95% accurate they're still worth looking at (to me anyway).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Hmmm now seeing some strong winds in the offing for Dolomites (on Bergfex at least), the news just gets better and better!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Zero iso in parts of Italy soaring up to nearly 4000m this weekend!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Heading to Les Arcs on Saturday....could really do with a change of weather next week! Looing at the different models, looks like an outside chance of colder weather from Tuesday, but likely to be sunshine and warm. Not ideal!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looking closer at the weather models, it wouldn't be a surprise to see some resorts in western Italy and elsewhere hit 20-25c at 1500m this weekend.
Pack the sunscreen, factor 30-50.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Looking closer at the weather models, it wouldn't be a surprise to see some resorts in western Italy and elsewhere hit 20-25c at 1500m this weekend.
Pack the sunscreen, factor 30-50. |
Nothing I have seen comes even close to those temperatures. Please can you elaborate and provide some data to support that?
Looks to me like 10 - 15 degrees max at 1500m
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I’m in Sainte Foy having a lovely time , not really that spring like , it’s not January but it’s hardly April either .
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| I’m in Sainte Foy having a lovely time , not really that spring like , it’s not January but it’s hardly April either . |
That’s what I love to hear Rob. 6:20 train next Friday, be there for dinner 
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Both GFS and ECMWF via wetterzentrale.de seem in rare medium-term agreement for the 8th and 9th February …. heavy rain and +5c at 850 hPa over The Alps. Could be big dumps for Tignes and VT?
Followed by days of typically February temperatures.
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Met office have highs of 8 for Chamonix Saturday to Monday. That’s only 3c above average so not silly ?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@zikomo, don’t feed the troll.
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The further ahead you look the closer the models will trend towards seaonsal averages. That's how the models work. 10 days out will have low confidence.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Boarderfarce wrote: |
| The further ahead you look the closer the models will trend towards seaonsal averages. That's how the models work. 10 days out will have low confidence. |
Ten days out a few days ago showed an unrelenting warmwave and Alpine drought. Not February averages.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I noticed the same on meteociel 10 day forecast for ADH, fingers crossed!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @zikomo, don’t feed the troll. |
sorry, my bad!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @zikomo, don’t feed the troll. |
quite. @yellowsnow is increasingly dumb and annoying.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| under a new name wrote: |
| kitenski wrote: |
| @zikomo, don’t feed the troll. |
quite. @yellowsnow is increasingly dumb and annoying. |
Yes. I should have paid attention to who made the comment. Apologies again!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| BobinCH wrote: |
Action in the forecast around 10th Feb. just in time for half term week 
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Hopefully due something but it does keep slipping back to the right. I'm out on Friday for 10 days or so and have been tracking things for the last week or so. It initially looked cold next week and a decent chance of precipitation mid week (around 6-7th Feb) but that has changed to very mild right through until 8-10th at least. I know these blocking highs are hard to predict and can break-down suddenly but it's not looking like it's happening any time soon. Hey ho, sunshine and long lunches...
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There’s still a great base above 2200m round here. 30cm of cold, fresh on top and conditions will be fabulous
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Each time I look the cold weather has moved a day to the right. Are we close to locking in some cold weather or still changing daily?
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| James77 wrote: |
| Each time I look the cold weather has moved a day to the right. Are we close to locking in some cold weather or still changing daily? |
Nothing is certain until it actually happens!
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Still looks like things get a lot more interesting towards end of next week in the models I'm looking at with precipitation predicted, from Thurs/Friday. But still looks a bit questionable on where the temperatures and FL will be, generally still looks warm to me across the alps in coming weeks.
(disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Pyramus wrote: |
Still looks like things get a lot more interesting towards end of next week in the models I'm looking at with precipitation predicted, from Thurs/Friday. But still looks a bit questionable on where the temperatures and FL will be, generally still looks warm to me across the alps in coming weeks.
(disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist). |
Which models? It is indeed too long out, but pretty much all the models I have seen do indeed show significant cooling from Thursday next week. I am still learning, but it seems most of the less sophisticated models just trend to the long term average, which is significantly colder than it is currently?
Or an I feeding another troll? lol
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@Pyramus, which models and what part of the world?
GFS 06z for Meribel shows a dip down to seasonal temps by the 2nd Feb but it ramps straight back up and then isn't showing any meaningful cooling until around the 11th Feb!!
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