 Poster: A snowHead
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@horgand, A bit south east from Munich, the mountains were glinting in the sunlight on the way into work this morning. Staff sitting outside in the sun having their lunch! Wish I could say it was a Föhn but its not, a very slight breeze from the west. Just looked at the St Anton webcam 16.6 degrees in the village!! It was perfectly good skiing there over the weekend but presume must be pretty sticky today. Yes the forecast is somewhat more optimistic for decent skiing weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GFS, GEM & ECM all in better agreement this morning. Focus for snowfall at the end of this week has shifted further east to Austria. The airmass should be colder over there by then, so more should fall as snow rather than rain except in the lowest resorts.
Other parts of the Alps should get bits and pieces here and there but looks unlikely to amount to much, and will fall as rain low down (at least at first). The potential for significant snow on the Italian side also seems to have diminished (though hasn't entirely disappeared).
Gradually cooling down this week, with a few days of below average temperatures looking likely around the turn of the month before it warms up again. A note of caution - the cooling trend will at first be accompanied by an increase in cloud / humidity, which means snowmelt at lower levels may increase temporarily before temperatures drop close to zero. (High temperatures in winter do not generally have much of an impact on snow cover unless accompanied by humidity / wind / rain).
I think it's too early for last week's sudden stratospheric warming to be affecting weather at ground level yet - that won't happen for a couple of weeks (if at all).
On the plus side - Pyrenees should get some decent snowfall over the next few days, especially on the west side of the chain.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| denfinella wrote: |
GFS, GEM & ECM all in better agreement this morning. Focus for snowfall at the end of this week has shifted further east to Austria. The airmass should be colder over there by then, so more should fall as snow rather than rain except in the lowest resorts.
Other parts of the Alps should get bits and pieces here and there but looks unlikely to amount to much, and will fall as rain low down (at least at first). .
Pyrenees should get some decent snowfall over the next few days, especially on the west side of the chain. |
I'm starting to wonder what the French Alps have done to upset the weather gods this season.
When looking at some of the weather animations this season, it looks like the snow is going out of it's way to actively avoid France!
I'm not out again till Easter so am hanging all my hopes on March going nuts this year!
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| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| I'm starting to wonder what the French Alps have done to upset the weather gods this season. |
I bought new skis. They are still in wrappers.
I did say it was going to be a slow start to winter in early December, although end of February is getting very slow indeed.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Handy Turnip wrote: |
it's a hell of early start to the summer season though! |
Absolutely. Lots of stuff coming up in our garden (1250 metres).
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| Quote: |
High temperatures in winter do not generally have much of an impact on snow cover unless accompanied by humidity / wind / rain).
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This is such a strange concept to get your head around when you come from a perpetually damp and windy place.
I've been checking the Livigno avalanche bulletin most days recently and in 2 weeks of close to double figure temps with bright sunshine, they've only lost 8cm of base in the valley, and 5cm at altitude. Its amazing how they hold onto snow.
Still, wish it would hurry up and dump.
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| element wrote: |
This is such a strange concept to get your head around when you come from a perpetually damp and windy place.
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The winter days are short and the sun is low - so it only really hits south facing slopes hard. From Mid March onwards it starts to have a big impact.
Of course 8cm when the snowpack is only 30cm is quite a lot.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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1350 meters, French NA, needs to snow before all the cover dissapears
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Not all good news in the states, I hear the mid West is having an unusually warm winter too.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Just spent some time in Panorama BC. Their story for the season parallels the Western Alps. Big snowfall before the Christmas holidays, rain to altitude (2600m) after the 25th, some snow and a really chilly end to January. They are keeping their snow well, NW orientation and lack of much freeze-thaw cycle helps a lot.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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See the tease machine is at again in the long range . GFS 12 240hr plus
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Meteo Tarentaise forecast for tomorrow , read through the usual Google translate
Forecast for your Wednesday:
 ️ Covered and slightly disturbed...
An overcast and gray day awaits us this Wednesday.
The clouds will already be present at sunrise, and should accompany us throughout the day.
Some precipitation will appear in the second part of the day from early afternoon, 14/4pm depending on sectors.
Rainfall will remain low, expect 2 to 5 mm in the valley.
End of precipitation expected during the first part of the night Wednesday into Thursday.
It will snow in early disruption sometimes to quite high altitude, 1800/1900m high, locally 2000m at early disruption then LPN will decrease to 1500/1600m evening, 1400/1500m late evening and next night.
We expect 5cm at 1800/2000m, locally 10cm above 2200m.
Temperatures are falling sharply, from +4°C to +14°C in the valley, +2°C to +12°C at 900m, -1°C to +7°C at 1800m, -4°C to -1°C at 2600m and -9°C to -2°C at 3500m.
Wind will be very light, from the South-West.
ISO 0°C will be the best of the day at 2500m elevation, which will be the first part of the day.
Pressure is dropping 1015 hrs expected
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow for the next bulletin for your second part of the week!
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
We don't forget the pot for the projects of installing weather sensors on the Tarantaise and Haute Tarantaise.
( https://www.leetchi.com/fr/c/lNLA8NVD )
Map from the AROME model showing the possible cumulus, not to be taken lightly (Meteociel)
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You know it makes sense.
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| davidof wrote: |
| .....The winter days are short and the sun is low - so it only really hits south facing slopes hard...... |
Yep all snow up the hill behind us up to circa 2,000m all gone now.
Yesterday I drove to Lyon and back and everywhere was sparse, and didn't see one skier in La Grave walking around or outside the Castillian when I drove back through.
Thankfully even with the recent warm temps we still have good usable pistes that have not suffered and the XC pistes in the valley with the sun being low are holding out really well.
But I've seen some photos of mates ski-touring and they're trying to big it up when it looks shite, that said we have one mate who is prepared to walk for a good hour or so in trainers etc and he's been getting some ok stuff.
The long range now going out to March 4th and still nothing substantial.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@BobinCH, probability would suggest late winter , it’s got to come sometime , but it seems to be one of those years so early summer most likely
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Weathercam wrote: |
Yesterday I drove to Lyon and back and everywhere was sparse, |
Even where the pistes are open they seem to be a mix of gravel and snow - I've not skied conditions as bad since I lived in Austria !
| Weathercam wrote: |
The long range now going out to March 4th and still nothing substantial.
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Second half of March, keep the faith. Of course there will be no base left by then.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Our big family holiday in Les Saisies, first week of April, will be a lot cheaper if there's no skiing. 
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| pam w wrote: |
| Our big family holiday in Les Saisies, first week of April, will be a lot cheaper if there's no skiing. |
I'm already seeing FatBikes out and about and I can see the ski-shops getting their summer e-Mtbs out and ready for the latter part of the season.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Currently snowing on the cams in les Deux Alpes at altitude. Keeping the faith
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| Boarderfarce wrote: |
| Currently snowing on the cams in les Deux Alpes at altitude. Keeping the faith |
That gives a little hope. Both Bergfex and Snowforecast seem to agree on 1cm today for la plagne which, to be honest, I'll take - times must be hard! 
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Zero iso at 2700m at Bonneval in the Maurienne at the mo. Lucky it isn't raining much. Romain VIVIANI will be suicidal.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@davidof, Thank you . You made me laugh .
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Spent quite a bit of time up in Val Thorens today. South facing slopes are absolutely caked. A cursory glance at the off piste areas confirms that most of the south-facing runs are surviving on less than 10 centimetres of “snow”. A few of the steeper runs (the Goitchel black) are a bad of cocktail of very old snow and mud. The snow line is receding higher and higher. Are we really going to have a season reset number 3? I just can’t see it …
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Our final trip of season is mid-March to Les Menuires. Will keep an eye on the charts for the next week but considering Norway now instead. They are having a good winter this year, the off-piste terrain in resort is a bit limited compared to the Alps (unless you do proper ski touring). But the snow looks excellent.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snowed last night in Saas-Fee. Not a huge amount but something to be going on with!
Meteoswiss saying more snow Monday evening into Tuesday.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Thu 23-02-23 10:55; edited 1 time in total
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Looks like Queyras might be getting a substantial dump, check out Abries / Ristolas (France) on your favourite forecast sites and look at Mon/Tues, doesn't look like a Retour D'Est though ?
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You know it makes sense.
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Possible risk of some ice after the freeze up and possible strong winds into next week ?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Crazy numbers for the Retour D'Est type resorts on wepowder but may just be an anomaly
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Poster: A snowHead
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Models holding steady for a decent snowfall for Austria to end the week, plus eastern Switzerland back in the game. Bits and pieces elsewhere in the northern Alps.
The models have been flirting with a big dump for the Italian (& southern French) side for a long time now, and it's been waxing and waning with each update. But confidence seems to be growing for a heavy fall for the far southern Alps - e.g. Prato Nevoso, plus French Queyras. (Isn't that basically a textbook retour d'est if it comes off, @weathercam, in terms of the areas affected?) This should be accompanied by a lovely low freezing level. Via Lattea / lower Aosta valley / upper Maurienne might also do well, but could be too far north. (Meanwhile the drought continues for the Livigno / Bormio region - guess where I'm heading next week!)
Wepowder indeed seem to have thrown all caution to the wind with their forecast. More than 2 metres around Prato Nevoso
Also looking good for the northern Italian Apennines west of Bologna. Abetone, Cimone... not sure many snowHeads go there though!
Into March, the cold snap looks fairly short lived before temperatures return to seasonal averages (still cooler than the current weather). UK extended outlook is then quite chilly (SSW starting to have an effect?), but not sure if that'll extend as far as the Alps.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@denfinella, I've had a look at the actual charts and there is a classic Genoa Low on offer which drives the Retour E'Est, and looks like a couple of very small lows developing North of the main one, which could be the very localised accumulations which are more synonomus with a classic Retour.
Back in 2014 we were in the Queyras just down from St Veran along with a local La Grave guide, and the guys in the locanda suggested to us to go back down from where we were and then drive up passing two valleys to Abries and we'd find a lot more snow, and that was one hell of an understatement, and was the first time the LG guide had heard about a Retour!
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Something needs to happen this week. Raining in Ponte Di Legno right now and we go next Sunday. The rain will destroy whatever’s left atm so need this cold spell and forecasted precipitation early next week to come good or it’ll be a week of major hassle and only skiing on Presena Glacier area.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Weathercam, thanks.
@Raptor24, that area is only getting a little bit of rain. Shouldn't have a major impact on pistes, even if there's no new snow. If you are limited to the Presena Glacier I'll eat my ski gloves!
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@denfinella, latest forecasts and the Retour is weakening considerably, and now very focused on NE Queyras and that corner of Italy, Prali etc
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Meteo Tarentaise expecting only a small Retour for those areas in the Tarentaise that benefit fro the retour Val D’I , parts of Tignes and the border areas no more than 5cm , but is forecasting very strong wind in these areas from Sunday lunchtime onwards 70/80km above 1800/2000m and 100/120km above 2500m, beware .
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| Quote: |
70/80km above 1800/2000m and 100/120km above 2500m, beware .
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That'll shut most of the lifts. No significant wind forecast for the Aosta valley at the moment - sprinkling of snow.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
| @denfinella, latest forecasts and the Retour is weakening considerably, and now very focused on NE Queyras and that corner of Italy, Prali etc |
Of course it is. Everything else in the alps has turned to crap this winter. Why change now?
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Bear in mind that everything will always be crap if you compare it to the most optimistic forecast. Some other model runs have indicated less snow than the current forecasts too.
Parts of the Pyrenees will have had 50cm+ by the end of the week. 30cm+ across large parts of Austria. Also some for eastern Switzerland and southern Germany. Still potentially 1m+ for SW Italian Alps.
So Austria, Switzerland, Italy, France, Spain, Andorra and Germany are all getting decent snow in places. All in all it's a good week for snowfall in western Europe, just perhaps not in the locations where most Brits ski! 
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FAQ
