 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Nassfeld got a direct hit......lots of new snow!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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looking at the webcams in tignes its looking decidely clowdy!!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Any word on how Engelberg is making out yesterday/today/tomorrow? I've heard they have 20-30cm already but haven't seen anything even near that on the snow-forecast style weather models, hence the confusion.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Riding in zauchensee today - it snowed on and off last night and today - conditions great - powder in the trees was knee deep and light but with heavier stuff underneath and more snow tomorrow - must have had 30cm plus on the hill 
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Is there anyway to view historic wiggles?
Also, would anyone be interested in animated ones to see how accurate they end up?
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would be interested on how likely the high pressure will hang about....appears to be locked in place now with all sources suggesting it isnt going anywhere soon.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Interesting little shift in a number of the GFS ensemble runs this morning, building on a very slight trend which was there in the 18z as well. Raises the potential that it could turn out a little snowier (primarily in Austria) next week than it was looking...
Here are the ensembles for the Arlberg (which is one of the places along with the Tirol where the trend is most marked as far as I can see).
Interesting that it is not so far cropping up that strongly in the operational run, though it does appear in a fair few ensemble runs. Will be curious to see if it strengthens or weakens during the day...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The links below show how some of the different models (and ensemble runs) see things playing out for the middle of next week (+132).
GFS operational run
GFS control run
GME/DWD (German model) operational
Both the GFS control and GME have the low pressure from the north stronger and coming through closer to the Alps, the GFS operational keeps it further east therefore reducing the impact it would have on the Alps (and therefore snowier, especially in Austria).
It will be interesting to see if GFS operational picks up on the GME and GFS control idea... 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Is it a case of wanting the jet stream to change course for the lows to come closer to the alps? If only that high that's sitting over us was a bit more to the west...
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perhaps all sh's in the western part of the alp could go to the top of the mountain at 1m local time, face west and blow really hard it might just move far enough to give us some more snow. 
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You know it makes sense.
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Wednesday now has something coming through
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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06z GFS takes another small step in the right direction, swinging low pressure down from the north... reaching just a little further west this time...
The operational run is still not really getting too involved in this, but a number of ensembles are.
[edit: incidentally the fact that the operational is not yet buying into this is significant, it is after all the most heavily weighted run. That said that a number of other ensembles including the control, the second most heavily weighted run, are looking more keen means it is worth watching. My understanding is that snow-forecast uses the operational GFS run as the initial data to generate it's forecasts, so until the operational starts picking up the pattern some of the other ensembles are nothing will appear on snow-forecast.]
Could well be snowy at times from Sunday evening, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of Austria. And snowy potential just reaching into the French Alps Tuesday and Wednesday (Switzerland getting a stronger version of what would be arriving in France). Italy slightly missing out.
All low confidence at this stage, and could easily change. It doesn't look for the moment like it will be huge amounts and will be interesting to see how the 12z runs handle it and whether the operational run starts to pitch in...
But certainly the last three runs have shown a move towards a slightly snowier potential...
(shoogly, the jet is sitting further north than normal, which is making it harder for the high pressure to set itself up further north. Were it to do so it would give a chance for colder weather and low pressure to move in from the east. It is trying to do so, but the jet looks like it is keeping a lid on things...
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Poster: A snowHead
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this keeps getting better yey. so hopefully some sun the first part of next week in tignes with the possiblity of some new snow after yey
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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still dancing 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Quieter 12Z GFS this evening.
Still suggests the possibility of light snow on Wednesday in the west and Monday and Wednesday in the east.
GME/DWD 12z actually pushed things further west as the high pressure weakens a little and at the same time would produce a slightly snowier option, but GFS seemed to back off a little, the high pressure remaining stubborn and keeping low pressure from the east at bay.
Worth watching this over the next day or two, it could pick up or indeed fade away. At present it would be fair to say the likelihood remains that it will be relatively settled, cold and sunny next week (but the possibility of a slightly snowier pattern is out there )
In the meantime there should be some beautiful weather in the Alps over the weekend, cold and sunny with plenty of blue skies.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I am driving accross France to the Alps next Friday the 29th. I bet anyone any money it hoofs it down with snow to knacker up my journey.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hi all in zauchensee today again - more light snow on and off - conditions on and off piste good. Local forecasts are giving more snow early next week, siunny later in the week. Anyone coming to this part of Austria need not fret! Enjoy !
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all i can say is that sat in dijon this evening in the hotel, there was a dusting of snow close to Chaumont and some here too, bloody freezing and windy.
French tv meteo suggests some showers tomorrow morning....lets see 
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on friday 7th jan, i sat on a chairlift heading up to super Mozine,the rain was again horizontally lashing into my face,huddled next to my wife i suddenly shouted out " NO"
"NO" my wife said ? yes no no to this being the last day of my skiing season, we were coming to the end of our first trip to Morzine,a interesting trip, always go to valdisere,but had been persuaded to go elsewhere,turned out a bad decision due to height of ski village and ski area,well thats life,but skiing in mud and rain is bad ,but when unfortunately our companions had worse luck for the 2nd time running their young boy became ill and a early trip home was the result,our other friends new to skiing took to skiing with real endeavour but to the cost of Aprez????? bed by 930 most nights so we skied down one run and i grabbed a beer rang my fav ski company and parted with a small fortune to book half term in Valdisere. whats wrong you might say,whats wrong i say is where,s the blooming snow,surely not twice in one season?,on xmas eve through much last minute action i purchased snow chains for my new car a q7 with 21 inch carlos fandango rude boy wheels,so big they needed specialist chains, it is for this that i now unreservedly apologise,because i now believe this act moved the jet stream hence hot or cold/dry weather,the chains are still in the back of my car in their box!!! i know 4 weeks tonight and i might be checking they fit and heading off to a dump filled resort,but i just cant help thinking ive screwed up the whole season, tellme my fellow snow watchers i,m not to blame tell me there is hope, tell me snow is coming,or tell me to go to my car grab the chains and hurl them into the nearest skip,say it and i will do it
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phillip33,  are you making up for all those early san-apres nights in Morzine?
Half term is a month away.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's shaping up into something of a Europe versus US contest this evening.
Whilst this evening's GFS (the US model) 12z (+132) didn't really develop the idea of pushing cold and more unsettled weather from the east across the Alps next week (as it had been hinting at doing this morning...).
ECM (European model) 12z (+120) and GME/DWD (the German model) 12z (+132), both did...
So you would expect forecasts based on the European models to look snowier for the first half of next week than those based on GFS (which might explain some of the discrepancies in forecasts). So early next week looks colder and snowier, more so in Austria, based on the European models and cold and clearer (though still fairly unsettled in the East) according to GFS.
One would imagine they will start to move towards a similar outlook over the weekend at some point. Though it is not clear whether it will be the cold and more settled GFS version or the colder and more unsettled Euro model...
Either way Austria looks like it is well placed for the first half of next week given that the colder and potentially snowy weather is coming from the east. ZAMG talks of Austria returning to its "white glory" next week... We'll see...
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 21-01-11 21:18; edited 1 time in total
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pam w i wish you could predict the snow as well, on 2nd bottle
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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phillip33, 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks like all the runs have flat-lined tonight - this High over GB won't budge and it's keeping the snow too far east and south.
That said - from watching these in summer and praying GB highs would hold still I know that they often don't!
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oh god wifes just decided to watch FOUR WEDDINGS AND A FUNERAL for the 20th time,stay awake my fellow snow watchers i need help staying awake, same as dame judi in recent bond " impress me"
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You know it makes sense.
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| oh god wifes just decided to watch FOUR WEDDINGS AND A FUNERAL for the 20th time,stay awake my fellow snow watchers i need help staying awake, same as dame judi in recent bond " impress me" |
I'm with you phillip33....I'm still recovering from being hoodwinked into watching ''Love Actually'' for the annual Christmas as well as New Year ritual with my Wife and two Daughter's...... 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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phillip33, chill dude, plenty of time before half term....
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Poster: A snowHead
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Had a quick look at 18z operational as it rolled out. Looked like a point for the Europeans and the potential for some snow across the Alps midweek. If that were to verify France and Switzerland would get quite a bit of snow next Wednesday.
Also some very cold temperatures in a weeks time for the end of the month, especially in Austria. Maybe...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, how do you get the runs as they roll out... the ones I've seen are 6 hours behind non?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Either way Austria looks like it is well placed for the first half of next week given that the colder and potentially snowy weather is coming from the east. ZAMG talks of Austria returning to its "white glory" next week... We'll see... |
Right now, you're my favourite person on the internet xx
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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In the short term GFS 00z looks very similar to 18z with the best chance for snow across the Alps being Wednesday.
Here are the ensembles for Chamonix:
You can see though that the operational run is still not buying this despite a majority of the other ensembles supporting it. So definitely low confidence and something to watch. The same snow would also reach Switzerland as part of a low pressure system coming down from the north and swinging out to the west.. It would have less impact in the southern Alps.
Austria looks more likely to get some snow spread from Monday through Wednesday. The further to the west the more likely it will be concentrated around Wednesday.
If this pattern is still here by the evening confidence in it will start to increase. Until then we'll see...
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06z half way through and looks like it still sends that low pressure down on Wednesday... Bringing a chance of snow for the French Alps and Switzerland. Austria still looks like it will see snow coming through from later on Monday.
To put this in context high pressure continues to dominate Europe. That means that the default setting is likely to be cold and settled in the Alps. With a good chance of sunshine.
But against this background there is some potential for snow (probably not large amounts) over the next week. It is difficult to say with any real degree of confidence how much could fall where. Small shifts in where the high pressure sits can prevent low pressure coming through and the Atlantic is for now pretty much blockaded. My impression is that Austria has a higher chance of light snowfall spread across the first half of the week, whilst France and Switzerland must rely upon a low pressure being sent out to reach them on Wednesday, but the high pressure could still ambush it on it's way down...
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Here is the low pressure I am talking about for Wednesday. Heading on it's way down from Scandinavia. It is not huge. But it could bring a reasonable bit of snowfall (and is the best chance this week by the looks of things). If you scroll up a bit you can seen how the same low pressure was being modeled last Thursday to take a slightly more easterly route.
The operational run is buying into it more today, that's good. We need it to build on this over the next few days! But it is very much at the mercy of the high pressure over the UK which could easily smother it.
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its all good even meteo.fr is buying into this as well now. predicting neige wednesday and thursday. which is good for me in tignes this week!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Snow -forecast now giving 7cms for Wednesday at village level in Zermatt,(1650m) Every little helps 
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12z GFS operational actually pushes things a little too far this evening and brings the low pressure from the north down a little too far to the west and misses much of the Alps...
The operational run is one of the few runs to do this though and the control delivers more of a direct hit. This should be visible in the ensembles (though will most likely show up as a downgrade for those watching snow-forecast later this evening).
The path of this low pressure remains unclear and is likely to continue to shift. It still looks like delivering the best chance of snow in the Alps next week... But it remains unclear and confidence in it must be low. GFS has also shifted down slightly on the extent to which Austria will be unsettled on Monday and Tuesday next week, although the European models are still more bullish on this.
The overall trend is still for high pressure to dominate the next week, along with some cold temperatures, especially in the east, and possibly very cold tomorrow and in a week's time...
So in general I would expect some pretty good sunshine over the Alps for the next week, cold and very cold temperatures at times, good pistes and by and large a fairly dry week bar the well worth watching potential for some reasonable snowfall midweek...
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