 Poster: A snowHead
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| polo wrote: |
@franga, -12c is good for the soul, won't happen exactly like this being 300+hours away, but a nice example of what could happen if stars align
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Welcome back @polo - it looks like you've had a reinvigorating week off.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@franga, spring has erupted in the garden, there is not much 'time off' in-between the wintery outbursts....swear I heard a mosquito last night, the red soldier bugs are breaking out across the patio and this young fennel shoot was covered in snow just last week.
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But yeah I've got visitors coming in Feb so having a look at what the weather might be.
The strat winds are currently forecast to be above average out to march, which isn't ideal (westerly momentum), but a little dip early Feb in the reliable timeframe.
MJO signal is forecast to move into more favourable blocking phases 6-7-8, possibly reflected in the EC46 weekly charts for mid Feb....
week 5-12th, cold heading towards the eastern end of alps intitially
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202401260000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202402120000
week 12-19th-----more widespread nordstau pattern.....too far to be useful, but better than showing +NAO etc
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202401260000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202402190000
And the day 10 means for the 6th.....the good the bad and the ugly.....not great, weak signal at that stage, but early days.
  
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I really wish they would!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@franga, they are talking, they say next week is very warm and sunny and it's guaranteed, and then after that, the next 5 weeks of wintery nirvana currently imagined by this one model are increasingly less guaranteed, from a starting point of 'amusement only' at week 2, to 'this definitely won't happen' weeks 3 to 6.
I look at weeks 2-3 for general trends as they shift slightly day to day, also noting any dramatic changes.
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I am trying to analyse Jungfrau ski area from mid February, looks like dim chances for major improvements...
Still 3 more weeks to come
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Have the Bavarian Alps had a rubbish few weeks? Today’s WC SG took place in heavy rain, on slushy slopes with greenery at all levels. The manmade piste snow appeared as an April-like white sliver on a green mountainside.
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I get it mate - I was just pointing out how starkly the 850hPa temp anomalies chart portrays what’s happening across most of the Alps at the moment.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I sometimes wish I know what you guys are talking about 
Looking forward to watching the squiggles as we approach half term - 6th family trip to Ste Doy incoming!!
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| Have the Bavarian Alps had a rubbish few weeks? Today’s WC SG took place in heavy rain, on slushy slopes with greenery at all levels. The manmade piste snow appeared as an April-like white sliver on a green mountainside. |
Garmisch has been battered in the past couple decades by global boiling.
Used to have a big glacier. Now it's gone.
Today looked grim.
Many parts of the Western Alps and Pyrenees are now weeks and weeks without any major snowfall.
Brown trails and mud at 2500m (the summit) in some parts of Andorra.
Almost unprecedented for this time of year.
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=165434&start=80
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Basically no snow on the ground below 1500 metres in the dolomites. Forecast to get to 13 degrees by the end of the week. Can’t even run the cannons overnight.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| scotspikey wrote: |
| Basically no snow on the ground below 1500 metres in the dolomites. Forecast to get to 13 degrees by the end of the week. Can’t even run the cannons overnight. |
Really? Max of 6c forecast at 1236m next Friday in Val Gardena.
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@scotspikey, this Passo Tonale? How is it skiing?
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You know it makes sense.
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Christ, I was looking at bergfex but the resort weather has the freezing level over 3000m midweek *at night*
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Snowforecast seems to have completely lost the plot. Now predicting a low of -23 at resort level (1576m) on Wednesday evening!
Clearly whatever run they use must be an outlier!
Clearly I am delighted it is predicting colder weather. I told myself that this year I would not look at the long range forecasts and just enjoy whatever the conditions are. But I just could not help it, stressing about yet another warm half-term week. All that said I just can't believe it will get that cold! There is 20cm of snow predicted too, which I know many of the more expert posters think unlikely.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@zikomo, they use GFS for their data as far as I know. For me, it works very well but on shorter-term forecasts. It always shows extreme-ish conditions for later dates. But GFS is also very erratic on longer-term forecasts. The forecast changed around 5 times for the first week of Feb and the changes were very opposite of each other. (I'm speaking for the Dolomites)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Will be in Zurich the week of 19-Feb on business. I'm considering extending my trip to do some skiing Feb 24-26. Are there any mountains within a 2 hour train ride with decent/good conditions this year? Apologies in advance, I live in USA and am unable to keep with snow conditions around the world  If this question isn't appropriate for this thread, let me know and I'll delete/move it
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| purplhays wrote: |
| Will be in Zurich the week of 19-Feb on business. I'm considering extending my trip to do some skiing Feb 24-26. Are there any mountains within a 2 hour train ride with decent/good conditions this year? Apologies in advance, I live in USA and am unable to keep with snow conditions around the world If this question isn't appropriate for this thread, let me know and I'll delete/move it |
Arosa
Davos/Klosters
Without the crowds of St Anton or Ischgl.
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Engelberg
Such a pleasure to travel there by train also
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| purplhays wrote: |
| Will be in Zurich the week of 19-Feb on business. I'm considering extending my trip to do some skiing Feb 24-26. Are there any mountains within a 2 hour train ride with decent/good conditions this year? Apologies in advance, I live in USA and am unable to keep with snow conditions around the world If this question isn't appropriate for this thread, let me know and I'll delete/move it |
Agree with Arosa, it's a really lovely ski area and the link to Lenzerheide is easy. Coming from Zurich you'll change trains in Chur, and the train journey from Chur to Arosa is exceptionally pleasant. Other good choices are Laax, Davos, etc - no shortage of good options.
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19.2 degrees today in highland Scotland (kinlochmidge). Mad.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@defnekasrat, Yes I’m starting to see what you mean. Now predicting continued warm weather on 8 and 9 Feb. From the -23 it showed this morning to +5! Absolutely nuts.
Looking at everything here and elsewhere I am expecting spring and poor skiing conditions.
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@zikomo, why poor snow conditions? There is a huge base up high in the alps
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Snow conditions in Les Deux Alpes today are pretty poor, even up high it’s not exactly great on piste, it’s okay but not what I’d usually expect end of January. On lower slopes it’s frankly shabby.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@zikomo, that's 2 weeks away stop being such a bringer of doom it will get cold again. It's almost like so many of you revel in the warm blips.
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| orange wrote: |
| 19.2 degrees today in highland Scotland (kinlochmidge). Mad. |
Ok - Admittedly there's a warm southerly air mass, but a percentage of that is due to the Foehn effect, where descending air over the Highlands is warming as it sinks (at a rate of 1⁰C per 100 meters)
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You know it makes sense.
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@zikomo, I realized that too. I think that's more of a GFS problem than a snow-forecast.com problem. there are also huge inconsistencies between GFS and ECMWF in my city (Istanbul). One predicts +20cm of snow(ECMWF) and the other predicts none(GFS). So, I think overall there is unpredictable weather happening all around Europe and the models are all over the place because of it. Usually, as time goes on, they tend to start agreeing with each other but it does keep you on your toes for a while
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@kitenski, because conditions are poor in many places already. As attested by many here. And in February I consider slush at 2000m as poor piste conditions. And I am a natural pessimist!
@defnekasrat, thanks for the voice of reason. I’m enjoying learning more about all this!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Fantastic piste skiing in warm sunshine in Passo tonale. Off piste, no chance. Anyone heading this way in the next month should be nervous. Getting greener by the day off piste. Rock hard ice in sun sheltered areas.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@scotspikey, excellent, keep me posted please
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@zikomo, that's just not true, granted it's poor under 1600m, but there are above average snow depths above 2000m across many parts of the alps, granted we are in a warm spell, it's happened before, it'll happen again. What is different in recent years is rain/snow/rain episodes IMHO.
But take the official word from the Vanoise avalance report which summarises the current situation pretty well IMHO
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@kitenski, I don't think that is good reading, for February. It actually says "good spring conditions" as quite high altitude (under 2700/3000m). I know you are trying to counter my somewhat negative view, but it remains the case that we currently have spring conditions and are expecting at least another week of sun and warm temperatures (FL at or above around 3000m even at night). I struggle to see how that is not a problem for the half-term week. There is a good snowpack, so in that respect you are right that there will be some skiing to be had. But it is only going to get worse. And that from a position, as pointed out in your post, that it is already "too soft" for latecomers which means a slushfest in the afternoons.
I love spring skiing. An early start for some hard/icy pistes to carve up in the morning, an hour or two of softer and more forgiving snow, then a long lunch and ski home on the slush. And lots of great day tour opportunities. I just don't like it in February.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Can we stick to the weather outlook. I'm not coming to this thread to hear about what type of conditions people prefer.
To the weather outlook there is increased agreement among forecasts regarding the progression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) into phase 8. Additionally, the influence of a positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (+ENSO) and a negative Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (-QBO). Negative QBO can lead to a North Atlantic blocking.
In short, signs on GFS and ECWMF of prolonged cold spell coming in from February 4/5th with precipitation. Forecast suggests it'll continue to travel with a deep depression hitting UK & Ireland. Hopefully it will continue to travel south into the Alps
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There’s loads of snow on the roof of the restaurant at the top of Bachas in Monetier…
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Ski conditions for each resort should be confined to the particular thread for that area this is about the weather outloook trends and yes it’s March this week but not doubt it will be January in March at some point .
BTW my money is still on a cold and snowy Feb .
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I feel like we are going to get a slightly cooler but still mild Feb. However looking at the different charts it's so hard to figure out what the weather will be like next week, nevermind anything longer.
Trying to figure out which chart/model seems to be the best one.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Theobane, you can mostly ignore chart/models more than 48 hours out IMHO, yes they can give a flavour of trends but there has been spectacular reversals of trends (both good and bad) in previous winters that no models picked up!
I'm not seeing any sustained temp drop for the next week on GFS, GEM, ICON or ECMWF. Its dropping til the 2nd then zooms up again!
Warm sunny days with plenty of snow above 2000m sounds like a great holiday though, but if it doesn't freeze at night it's going to lead to "interesting" conditions on and off piste.
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Handy to know! I have only been getting into the weather forecast now when we booked a trip to Soldeu for mid March. Before I wouldn't worried we're we go, but in the last few years it seem to have changed.
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