@GreenDay, interesting! I think I might need to download Meteoblue - I love a bit of confirmation bias
Windy app does sound really useful, save me flipping between about 5 weather apps in the morning.
If you do, feel free to drop me a pm if you need to know how to access those different ones, its not immediately obvs.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@GreenDay, There will be more than 2cm but if you want a better feel follow Tarentaise Meteo on Facebook , he’s normally spot on but he won’t tell you till Tuesday/Wednesday .
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Some shifts in the models overnight, but still a bit uncertain. For next Wednesday/ Thursday onwards:
GFS and GEM have sort of met in the middle. Nice and cool, reasonable snow for much (not all) of the Alps, both north and south. Some differences in where the most snow might fall, as you'd expect at this stage. (GFS: most of NW, N & SE Alps. GEM: northern French Alps incl. as far south as Grenoble, & NW Italy / Aosta Valley.)
ECM - still too mild for lower resorts at first, a bit of snow / rain for most areas.
@Handy Turnip, Bergfex forecast for La Plagne shows mild temps, a bit of rain / snow, which would appear to match ECM, but I'm not sure.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@GreenDay,
Quote:
quite like the Windy phone app which allows you to look at GFS, ECM, Meteoblue....
+1 for Windy
Great for viewing all sorts of weather parameters, including temperatures; precipitation/type; snow depth etc and comparing different model outputs
the yachts in the r.t.w Ocean Race use it big time for chasing wind; passage planning etc.
have you checked out the real-time/forecasts for dust-plume analysis when there's a Sahara dust event
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Model runs yesterday pm and overnight have all unfortunately trended towards the milder of the two scenarios for Wednesday onwards (GFS, GEM & ECM all generally in agreement).
That could bring fairly heavy precipitation focused on the French / western Italian Alps (and some elsewhere too), but with a high rain / snow limit (1500-1800m range?).
A bit disappointing given the positive signs in the models up until yesterday morning.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@denfinella, still time for them to flip/flop a number of times!
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@kitenski, yes, but the timeframe is decreasing so it becomes less and less likely - and currently all three of the above models are going for the mild and moist setup.
Would still bring useful snow to some of the higher French areas.
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When they're all in agreement for more warm, it's hard to be optimistic. I wouldn't mind warm too much, actually, if the sun shines.
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denfinella wrote:
@kitenski, yes, but the timeframe is decreasing so it becomes less and less likely - and currently all three of the above models are going for the mild and moist setup.
Would still bring useful snow to some of the higher French areas.
Bergfex (which model does that use) is going cold and mostly dry 8 or 9 days out in Sella Ronda. Don’t see any mild there.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
How are we looking for new snow in Chamonix please? We arrive next Saturday hoping to beat a lot of the half term rush
Anyone currently in Chamonix - how are the pistes holding up please? My little one is just learning and likes Vormaine - Is that still open?
Thanks in advance
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
It will be cooler than the current weather (which is very mild indeed), but probably warmer than average for the time of year, which isn't ideal when accompanied by a moist airmass. (Average temperatures in the Dolomites in late February would bring snow to below 1,000m.)
For lower resorts, it'll be better to be further east than further west.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Thanks. Now showing freezing level at your 1000m in Selva next weekend plus some snow. So that’s be good if it happens
Thanks! Hopefully they are correct and we get the predicted 30-40cm by friday!
This is my 4th trip to Chamonix this season and theres been a big variance in conditions between them.
We arrived New Years Eve and there was hardly any snow anywhere but just enough for my daughter to do ski school at Planards
We then returned the last week of January and there was snow-a-plenty and sunny blue sky everyday. Perfect.
Last week the pistes were still in good nick if a little icy and bare in a couple of places at Les Houches and Le Tour but still had a great time.
My daughter likes to ski at La Vormaine as its a lovely wide and easy piste for her to practise on so Im hoping its still open/will re-open after fresh snowfall.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Feel bad for everyone that yet another predicted snow event turned out to be a dud
Was annoyed that I didn’t get any fresh snow while skiing in late January / early February but reading some of the current reports I probably did pretty well considering how this season has gone. At least it was nice and cold and not too many rocks or dirt around.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I'm not sure the snow event is definitely going to turn out to be a dud. Still seems like possibility of decent dump, in France at least
Quick question… could someone pls explain the rainfall metric of “l” as shown on Bergfex forecast? Thx
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Ozboy wrote:
Quick question… could someone pls explain the rainfall metric of “l” as shown on Bergfex forecast? Thx
My guess... litres per m2 (not sure but it seems to be in proportion to the cm of snow I am looking at...)
Taking an example: 13cm of snow is supposed to be about 1.3cm of rain. Over 1m2 that is 13,000 cm3 = 13 litres. And the same forecast (Selva, next Saturday, mountain) says 14l...
So I may be right!
(I guess the proportions are not always the same as the 10:1 estimate of snow to rain depths will vary a bit depending on the type of snow). Also some snow may fall as rain during the crossing of a front)
Alas not the hoped for deep freeze this weekend but at least some precip in the forecast, cooling temps and weather predictors getting excited about some funny (cold) business in March. Go high and North facing for the best conditions
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
peanuthead wrote:
I'm not sure the snow event is definitely going to turn out to be a dud. Still seems like possibility of decent dump, in France at least
Pyrennees also looking good, at least on Bergfex and Snow-forecast
After all it is free
After all it is free
Not much change in the models over the last 24 hours.
I would agree that the next snowfall will not be a total dud, even though this week's "snow+cold" scenario has largely disappeared. But perceptions will differ depending on where in the Alps you are interested in, and what altitude.
The outlook is generally quite unsettled, which means some higher ski areas should get snow later this week even with milder than average temperatures (which will still be cooler than they are currently). French Tarentaise region could do OK for example. Lower resorts not so good.
There is also a general downwards trend in temperatures into the following week, though far from certain at this point.
The most interesting element is from storms coming up from the south. Parts of the Italian Alps could get a pasting if the setup is right, but there's still uncertainty over how much progress these will make beyond the plains / foothills. Again, altitude may be key, but areas like the Aosta Valley could yet come away with some big totals. Additionally, really heavy precipitation will often allow snow to lower altitudes than would otherwise be expected. Some of the ski areas in this region are fairly high anyway (e.g. Pila, much of Monterosa), so they could do well. Or it may still come to nothing.
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Quote:
The most interesting element is from storms coming up from the south. Parts of the Italian Alps could get a pasting if the setup is right, but there's still uncertainty over how much progress these will make beyond the plains / foothills. Again, altitude may be key, but areas like the Aosta Valley could yet come away with some big totals.
Indeed crazy disparity between op and control runs <1wk out in said part of the world...weather app aficionados (which rely on GFS op output) beware
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Very mild in the Haute Tarentaise today , prompted a post from Meteo Tarentaise .
Completely crazy day at altitude!
⬇️ I think this Monday will remain in the annals in terms of winter sweetness, and, up to high altitude, we picked up:
+18.1°C in Bourg Saint Mauritius (865m)
+16.4°C in Albertville (314m)
+15.1°C in Montvalezan (1270m)
+13.3°C in Granier (1260m)
+13.1°C in Arcs (1750m)
+12.7°C in Celliers (1924m)
+12.5°C at Sainte Foy de Tarantaise (1582m)
+10.4°C in Val d'Isère Joseray (1850m)
+10.3°C in Tignes (2084m)
+10.0°C at the Rosière, Pass de la Traversette (2390m)
+9.7°C at La Rosière - front of snow (1850m)
+9.2°C at Pisaillas Glacier (3119m)
+8.3°C in Chevril (2869m)
+7.5°C at Chevril level (2560m)
+7.3°C at the level of Grand Parei (2240m)
+7.0°C at Pass du Petit St Bernard (2188m)
+6.8°C at the top of the Red Needle - Les Arcs (3226m)
+6.7°C in Bellecôte (3000m)
+6.5°C at La Plagne (2120m)
Impressive high mountain climbs!
Source: Romma, Meteorological and Tarantian Weather ( )
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
R’les Arcs la radio station
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
A couple of medium term projections for the rest of the winter
ECM is very positive for March suggesting a significant positive (if you want snowfall) anomaly for the alps, though not so the rest of February or April. UK Met office pretty negative for all months. Both were suggesting lots of snow for Norway, so perhaps a late spring trip to Scandinavia. I know these sort of projections are not always viewed positively, though from what I can remember of them the ones for the winter from autumn time have been pretty good ie a low snow winter for the alps.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
BobinCH wrote:
Alas not the hoped for deep freeze this weekend but at least some precip in the forecast, cooling temps and weather predictors getting excited about some funny (cold) business in March. Go high and North facing for the best conditions
I’m heading to the 4V this weekend. Still confident we are at least getting a wee freshen up. The Soul 7’s are defo coming in the back of the car too - just in case!
Bob wtf were you??
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
From Simon Lee.
“Per the extended-range GEFS, the strongest correlation across ensemble members between the predicted weekly-mean lower-stratospheric vortex strength & the NAO is in week 3 (commencing March 5th). That seems to be when GEFS is suggesting the main downward impact from the SSW.”
Shorts & t shirt weather here today but forecast for the weekend is back to winter (mountains too) below zero & snow. The models dont suggest lot of snow but cold.@buchanan101, its a shame the automated forecast apps like bergfex dont include an indication of how accurate the forecast is likely to be, if the forecast was snow this weekend with an accuracy of 50% then you would be expecting a high chance of being disappointed
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@munich_irish, the Bergfex app does give a probability value. It even gives this value for every 3 hours per day in the detailed breakdown.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Jagerbull, Then folk should know there is a chance of disappointment
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
munich_irish wrote:
Shorts & t shirt weather here today but forecast for the weekend is back to winter (mountains too) below zero & snow....
Is the "here" in your post Munich??
Just to clarify.
We're due to rock up to St Anton from March 4th for a week, I see 25 cm due this Friday night on snow-forecast.com, with snow showers (flurries) on Thursday, Saturday & Sunday nights also, and then that longer term forecast weather displacement in early March, that's highlighted above, I'm getting a little bit more hopefully for freshies & goodish conditions maybe......
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
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folk should know there is a chance of disappointment
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