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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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pjd, it's temperature. Calling it a "wiggles" chart makes you sound about 3.

Garioch, I think it looks like temperatures will warm towards the weekend, but that's relative given how cold it is now. So temperatures will actually return to closer to normal for mid January, before it looks like they will cool again.

Light snow across the western Alps tomorrow, heavier further east and south, though I suspect some of the forecasts mentioned in posts above may have been overdoing things slightly.

Here's WRF for 1800z on Wednesday.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=60#model

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The term "wigglies" has been used on snowheads for quite a few years and by the previous weather posters such as carled and brian

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=31806&start=1200 from 2008

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=1451264&highlight=wigglies#1451264 note brians signature.

The term does somewhat demeans the nature of the charts but it does helps identify the type of chart people are referring to quite effectively.
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nozawaonsen, The use of the term' wigglies' on here pre-dates you by some years.

You may find it takes a while for the older members to kick the habit.
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red 27, people can use whatever term they want. Just my point of view.
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nozawaonsen, thanks, but what is the right-hand y axis, the 0-50 of the 'ensembles chart'? (is that the correct term?)
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Quote:

red 27, people can use whatever term they want. Just my point of view.


Absolutely, even if it does make them sound about 3.

GFS ensembles, anyone?
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pjd, it's mm of niederschlag or precipitation.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


pjd, it's mm of niederschlag or precipitation.



Out of interest ... is that pronounced "Need a Slag" ... always wondered.

Ta
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Mattmulkeen wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:


pjd, it's mm of niederschlag or precipitation.



Out of interest ... is that pronounced "Need a Slag" ... always wondered.

Ta


rolling eyes rolling eyes
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I think it's need errr shlarg? Only the english lazily ignore the "r"s. The Scots are more meticulous. Chucking it down here in the Beaufortain again this morning. Official figure is 14 cms yesterday, and it looks like at least that, if not more, today. Chamonix meteo have updated their forecast today for 15 - 20 cms at 1000m and it's certainly looking like that. Meteo France have been more accurate than other forecasts, in the last few days, just for a change.
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"Absolutely, even if it does make them sound about 3.

GFS ensembles, anyone?"

Well done you andyrew for knowing the technical term
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Little piece from Auntie about the system bringing dumpage / carnage to Italy and the Balkans atm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21027549

Fingers crossed for those of us hoping to fly into INN on Thursday Skullie
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Now the forecast using scaled snowmen
http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Oesterreich-unter-einen-weissen-Decke/91395309
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Latest from zamg calling for much snow across austria thursday and then a further drop in temps for the weekend. http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Wetter-in-Oesterreich-Schnee-Alarm-am-Wochenende-FOTOS/91423543 Was talk on here of warming towards the weekend, maybe further west?
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waynos, Null cms for the Arlberg, that'll not please the hard-corers? wink
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The Pyrenees is currently on Orange Alert due to the significant snow fall and high risk of avalanche. During the last 48 hours up to a metre of snow has fallen across all levels of the resorts of Superbagneres, Peyrragudes and Baqueira Beret. Heavy snow is set to continue until Thursday.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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robboj, they've had that share this season.
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Hi
Off to Tignes on Sunday for a week. Any ideas on how the weather is stacking up from the 21st January onwards? Trying to get an idea of how hard core to go with the fleeces etc Very Happy
Cheers
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Griggs, looks a chilly week - 4/5 on the hardcore scale I would say
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red 27 wrote:
Griggs, looks a chilly week - 4/5 on the hardcore scale I would say


thought it was looking like it was going to warm up towards the end of the week. From the 19th it seems to get "relatively" warm.
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xander89, yes but then dropping again from the 22nd
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isnt it too early to say?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png

seems pretty similar from the 19th onward if we are to look at the average. Either way i am glad i invested in a neoprene mask!
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If we all stuck to the (admittedly sensible) 'too early to say' position this thread would be a good deal shorter than 38 pages wink
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red 27 wrote:
If we all stuck to the (admittedly sensible) 'too early to say' position this thread would be a good deal shorter than 38 pages wink


oh i was very much of the opposite position until i got told off for looking too far ahead NehNeh, but that said the graph i linked doesnt seem to forecast a big drop in temps after the 19th ( if anything it is saying the temps may even get above freezing Shock), that was my main point.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Tue 15-01-13 17:53; edited 2 times in total
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Hi
Thanks for the tip. Think I will ramp up the fleece weight then ! As well as potential cold can we expect any sun or are we in for a week of cloud cover and snow?
Griggs
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Griggs, the weather over the Alps is very volatile at the moment and forecasts change from hour to hour.

You won't have a settled week of blue skies but there will probably be a bit of everything - a nice variety of conditions Toofy Grin
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xander89, that chart barely has temperatures creeping above average for the length of it's run. They do for a brief period at this weekend (though even then dipping above and brow the seasonal mean). Other than that it is a cold chart.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
xander89, that chart barely has temperatures creeping above average for the length of it's run. They do for a brief period at this weekend (though even then dipping above and brow the seasonal mean). Other than that it is a cold chart.


i was not referring to the seasonal mean, but rather compared to the current artic temps, looking forward the weather, which i already said was unreliable in my previous post, was "relatively" high and there isnt a forecast drop after the weekend, not as yet anyways. I would say 0c Vs -15 is relatively boiling. One will give you rosey cheeks, the other will freeze them off Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Here are some ensembles.

Les Deux Alpes.

Chamonix.

The Arlberg.

Hintertux.

Bad Gastein.

Sestriere.

Folgaria.

Zermatt.

Cairngorm.

Hemsedal.

Eastern Pyrenees.



The overall all picture is of cold. Pretty much for the length of the run in the Alps. Temperatures will rise, but only to close to or just below seasonal average. It looks like they will cool again in the early part of next week.

Snow into Austria tomorrow (including the Arlberg) and the Dolomites.

More snow across the Alps looking likely over the weekend.
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nozawaonsen, where is the snow line? i'm flying into Geneva on sunday morning, should i expect disruption?


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Tue 15-01-13 21:12; edited 1 time in total
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Russeh, don't think so. At the moment the snow line looks to be above 1000m in the west this weekend.
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cool good stuff. thanks nozawaonsen
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nozawaonsen,
What about snow at Luton Airport on Sunday morning> Any chance of flights being disrupted?
Mitch
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it just looks like rain towards the weekend Mitchell

*edit* its changed a lot since i last looked


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 15-01-13 23:11; edited 1 time in total
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BBC forecast predicting snow at East Midlands Airport from midnight Friday night thru to mid-morning Saturday. I know it'll probably change between now and then, but I really wasn't expecting potential snow-based travel problems before even stepping onto the plane!!
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ian66 wrote:
BBC forecast predicting snow at East Midlands Airport from midnight Friday night thru to mid-morning Saturday. I know it'll probably change between now and then, but I really wasn't expecting potential snow-based travel problems before even stepping onto the plane!!


They're starting to get more and more confident about this system sweeping in from the west on Friday and into Saturday. As it bumps into the cold air, certainly the leading edge will produce snowfall down to sea level, I would imagine even the trailing edge will fall as snow depending on your location (being that the cold air is very well in place over eastern and northern parts of the UK). The met office has yellow weather warnings out for it, so I'd stay glued to the forecast if I were you!

On a more European level, people need to stop worrying about temperatures hitting the positives! (Should they do so this weekend) If it had been March I'd be slightly annoyed as it's likely there will be slushy conditions at the end of the day. But during these short January days, the sun just does not stay high in the sky long enough to harm the snow.
It was 6 degrees in Les Deux Alpes last week for 2-3 days on the trot and there was absolutely 'nada' in terms of slushy snow. In fact the snow was the best I have ever skied on.
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Looks like colder next week for uk......
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Mitchell, this weekend's weather in the UK is tricky. It looks cold and I certainly would not rule out snow in many places including Luton. Worth keeping an eye on the forecasts.
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Can someone point me in the right direction to see weather charts for the Himalayas and Gulmarg in particular.
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Callum001 wrote:
ian66 wrote:
BBC forecast predicting snow at East Midlands Airport from midnight Friday night thru to mid-morning Saturday. I know it'll probably change between now and then, but I really wasn't expecting potential snow-based travel problems before even stepping onto the plane!!


The met office has yellow weather warnings out for it, so I'd stay glued to the forecast if I were you!


I don't think any of us need an excuse not to be on permanent weather watch between now and departure time!!! Smile
work productivity fast decreasing as the weekend gets nearer........
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