 Poster: A snowHead
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| scotspikey wrote: |
| @8611, see you there, head out on 27th. Not liking watching the snow melt on the web cams |
Where are you going?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| zikomo wrote: |
| scotspikey wrote: |
| @8611, see you there, head out on 27th. Not liking watching the snow melt on the web cams |
Where are you going? |
Any of ye in Val D'Isere?
I'm there from the 27th & looking for a few kindred spirits. (Experienced, decent off piste skier, with some touring & ski mountaineering experience)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@scotspikey, it'll be grand surely? Decent snowfall two weeks ago and 2000m? I'm headed with the kids so I don't really mind too much, more about them than me
Post up a conditions update in the Dolomites thread if you get a chance
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Apparently, the temperature in Spain today reached 30.7C, a European record for January. The airmass responsible for this heat is heading into Central Europe over the weekend. As I mentioned earlier, the airmass will cool through contact with colder surfaces and radiative cooling, but we can expect some unusually high temperatures for late January across the Alps next week.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 25-01-24 19:08; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Wetterzentrale forecasts near 5.0C at 1500m (850 hPa) for most of next week in St Anton
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Temp records being smashed everywhere on the planet this month (Jan), from Spain to Argentina to Ivory Coast to Myanmar.
It's the world's hottest Jan ever on record.
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@Onelasttime1!, stupid question so when it returns south again it will be cooler with some of the extreme heat taken out ?
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, stupid question so when it returns south again it will be cooler with some of the extreme heat taken out ? |
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=30&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0
Yes, it will cool down over time. If you click on play in the above link, you can follow the evolution of the warm airmass over Spain as it moves northeast. It will get modified as it moves northeast eventually into Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Beyond about T+168, the models diverge so there is limited confidence in the evolution beyond that time.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Onelasttime1!, Thanks … so this(troublesome so far this winter) pool of warm air has been sitting over the southern Iberian /western Med /north west Africa for some time since summer/autumn not cooled down as presumably fed by the warm Atlantic ? So the displacing of this warm pool of air could lead to a cooler 2nd half of winter ? Is this why many of the long ranger’s were predicting a colder loaded back end of winter ?
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, Thanks … so this(troublesome so far this winter) pool of warm air has been sitting over the southern Iberian /western Med /north west Africa for some time since summer/autumn not cooled down as presumably fed by the warm Atlantic ? So the displacing of this warm pool of air could lead to a cooler 2nd half of winter ? Is this why many of the long ranger’s were predicting a colder loaded back end of winter ? |
I love your optimism Rob … but, you’re right … a few season forecasts were suggesting a cold February + March if I remember correctly. The cooling trend in some of the ensembles around the 3rd / 4th seems to be holding on … for now.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Anyone know the possibility of snow or rain from Feb 3rd-8th? Three valleys area.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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In SkiWelt at the moment. Rain up to mid mountain last night, and a little forecast tonight and a fair bit more tomorrow night. Made for rather unpleasant skiing at top today (heavy, chopped up new snow) and wet slow rain affected snow lower down
From Saturday forecast fine but warm, not getting below freezing at all at the top (temperature inversion) - but as clear skies radiative cooling will still freeze the pistes overnight.
One blessing - it’s been very quiet all over the SkiWelt this week, even when the conditions were better earlier in the week. Not a single queue to speak of. Much quieter than earlier in January last year. So pistes until today held up very well even with temps sometimes over 10C (has been very little sun).
I’ve had better weeks…!
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
In SkiWelt at the moment. Rain up to mid mountain last night, and a little forecast tonight and a fair bit more tomorrow night. Made for rather unpleasant skiing at top today (heavy, chopped up new snow) and wet slow rain affected snow lower down
From Saturday forecast fine but warm, not getting below freezing at all at the top (temperature inversion) - but as clear skies radiative cooling will still freeze the pistes overnight.
One blessing - it’s been very quiet all over the SkiWelt this week, even when the conditions were better earlier in the week. Not a single queue to speak of. Much quieter than earlier in January last year. So pistes until today held up very well even with temps sometimes over 10C (has been very little sun).
I’ve had better weeks…! |
Arriving in Skiwelt tomorrow for 2 weeks, doesn’t seem like we will have the best of skiing
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You know it makes sense.
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"many of the long ranger’s were predicting a colder loaded back end of winter"
Do such very long range forecasts have any predictive value "on the ground"?
My perception was that they don't?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| under a new name wrote: |
"many of the long ranger’s were predicting a colder loaded back end of winter"
Do such very long range forecasts have any predictive value "on the ground"?
My perception was that they don't? |
Imho they offer next to nothing in terms what’s later experienced at the time. True meteorologists always gently dismiss any talk of “we’re heading for a cold spell in x weeks” time, or say in November when asked if the talk of a cold winter are true.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Snow&skifan, that's what I thought, cheers 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| under a new name wrote: |
"many of the long ranger’s were predicting a colder loaded back end of winter"
Do such very long range forecasts have any predictive value "on the ground"?
My perception was that they don't? |
There is very little if any skill in long-range forecasts in mid-latitudes. There is some skill in tropical regions where events like El Niño have a significant impact - not much use for skiers.. There is also much we do not know about the impact of a changing climate on day-to-day weather. The impact of the large positive sea surface anomaly in the North Atlantic is such an example - it's almost unique in recent times, so we have little previous experience to understand the consequences.
Extreme long-range forecasts are usually issued by people seeking publicity.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Not looking good. 12 day forecast showing a dip in temperatures on Sunday/Monday and then back to warm (FL above 3000m).
I know the usual caveats, its quite a long range forecast. But has been proven reasonably accurate about the current warm weather.
We are off to Monterosa on the 8th, so first ski day is 2 weeks from now. I remain disappointed that likely yet another warm half-term week with no worthwhile off-piste. I am still trying to see the positives but it is hard!
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I feel like il be extremely screwed for March so in the Pyrenees at this rate of heat in our weather. Feel like il be doing some mountain hiking instead of skiing!
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Bizarrely, in this catastrophic season we're having (/sarcasm off) I had a near perfect bluebird day yesterday, skiing the low altitude pds ski area (Châtel/Avoriaz/Champery parts).
Pistes were well covered and flat, a bit hard maybe, but I have new skis, so carved it up.
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GFS looks nailed on for the warm spell to continue into Feb with pretty broad agreement (this for Meribel)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@snoozeboy, there does seem to be a tendency for looking for the worst - this season is immeasurably better than last in terms of snow coverage at mid-mountain upwards, it’s warm but not wet, so unless you can only enjoy yourself in fresh snow there’s lots of fun to be had. We’re heading out to Morzine tonight and are looking forward to sunny days and snowy mountains.
As we say in the north, “it’ll be reet”.
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@kitenski, I am clueless about this stuff. But does your graph above suggest high temperatures until 7th Feb then returning to norm?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@zikomo, the lines are pretty similar up to the 1st Feb, so that means broad agreement of above average temps. After that you can see all sorts of different lines so that means some disagreements in what may happen from the various models, and you can see by the 5th Feb its start to show a trend towards cooler weather, but big disagreements and you can see a big spike up on the 7th Feb in temps, but that is only a few of the lines.
So I'd say nailed on warm going into Feb, but then who really know after that1
@andy from embsay, agree, just back from Trois Vallees, lucky enough to ski some great soft powder and also some lovely soft not really slushy spring snow all within 4 days!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@kitenski, Thanks. Which is more predictive? The "ens. mean" (I assume that is some sort of weighted average of all the runs)? Or "Oper" (what does that mean btw)? All interesting stuff and I am enjoying the learning. Even if the outcome seems to be it will be spring in February!
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@zikomo, more info in this thread.
Based on the spread of runs, I'd say the forecast post 4th Feb is 
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You know it makes sense.
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| zikomo wrote: |
| @kitenski, Thanks. Which is more predictive? The "ens. mean" (I assume that is some sort of weighted average of all the runs)? Or "Oper" (what does that mean btw)? All interesting stuff and I am enjoying the learning. Even if the outcome seems to be it will be spring in February! |
Perhaps it might help to explain the difference between the 'main' run and the ensembles.
The main run (plotted in green on Wetterzentrale website) as shown above, is the best high resolution global model that the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centre operates. Resolution is the distance between each grid point in the model (usually about 15 km). Resolution has reduced over the years as ever more powerful supercomputers have been introduced. The main run will use the best possible analysis of the available observational data.
The ensembles are a lower resolution version of the same model (usually about 30 km). Using some clever work by the NWP scientists, the initial analysis of the observational data is tweaked in areas of the globe that are considered to be sensitive for the subsequent forecast. The various NWP centres will use different techniques for tweaking the data. The ensembles will hopefully show the degree of confidence or uncertainty in a particular forecast. If there is a big spread in the ensembles, this shows high uncertainty and a number of possible solutions. If the ensembles diverge from the main run early in the forecast period, this also shows increased uncertainty.
The ensemble mean (the average of all the ensembles) can be useful in showing a trend, but may be less helpful if there is a big spread in the forecasts.
Hope this helps
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@2waterford, it’s a bit soft today and got a whole lot busier (but still virtually no queues). Snow holding up reasonably well and at least you’ll have sun for a while. You should get clear nights so it’ll be spring conditions so not that bad. Problem last few days is that it hasn’t frozen that much, hence soft from quite early.
I bought the Superski pass - was planning to do different resorts. May do Fieberbrunn tomorrow - a bit higher. And will do Alpbach or Zell Am Ziller Sunday on way back to airport for late flight.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@zikomo, [drift]in fairness, Monterosa really isn't known (despite Alagna's best efforts) for its off-piste, when "off-piste"="powder" ...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Heading to Meribel for a week tomorrow, looks like some lovely sunny conditions, possibly a bit warm but I will enjoy that after a couple very cold days in Avoriaz last week.
Maybe head up to VT if the snow isa bit slushy.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @zikomo, [drift]in fairness, Monterosa really isn't known (despite Alagna's best efforts) for its off-piste, when "off-piste"="powder" ... |
As always I agree, and sort of disagree. It is not where I generally go when chasing powder, although it can be very good when it's good so to speak. But it is probably my favourite domain for day tours. I would classify both as off-piste. I doubt there will be much chance of either this trip, which is a shame as my daughter is really getting into day tours (we have had some fun already this year in Scotland).
Any latest intel on restaurants, especially on mountain? If it is warm the right antidote is a long lunch....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@zikomo, Passo tonale. Sat on the plane waiting to go as I type
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@zikomo, Novex, skier's right on last pitch down to Crest.
Anyway, back on topic lest we get sanctioned, it’s a beautiful, if unseasonably warm day in Chamonix.
Meteoblue hinting at some precipitation Feb 8th ... just in time for the vacances scolaires , snow would be helpful ...
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Next weekend we should see the beginning of another round of Greenland blocking drama. The old vortex recovered very quickly from the minor strat warming event over new year leading to current north running jet, and south westerly +NAO mini heatwave. That’s set to ease up into Feb, with another drop in AO / NAO early in the month / clockwork.
Rob - the long rangers were likely using analogs for previous winters with moderate-strong El Niño, which afaik suggested back loaded cold for Europe, but it’s not a large sample to study. Another connection is the Indian Ocean Dipole, can’t go into the mechanics (because I don’t understand them  ) but a strongly positive IOD can disrupt cold signals, and the index peaked as forecast in December, so it’s one less negative going into latter months.
A few background signals are now at least suggesting that we’ll see a new pattern (more of a southerly jet) emerge into mid Feb. The main trop vortex lobe over Greenland will hopefully shift east towards north Russia, as the westerly flow gets blocked over the Atlantic, turning the air colder from the north. That’s the plan, mid term mayhem.
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| under a new name wrote: |
@zikomo,
Meteoblue hinting at some precipitation Feb 8th ... just in time for the vacances scolaires , snow would be helpful ... |
Aye, that'll be pretty nailed on as we leave on 11th so it'll chuck it down just as we're leaving...
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| polo wrote: |
Next weekend we should see the beginning of another round of Greenland blocking drama. The old vortex recovered very quickly from the minor strat warming event over new year leading to current north running jet, and south westerly +NAO mini heatwave. That’s set to ease up into Feb, with another drop in AO / NAO early in the month / clockwork.
Rob - the long rangers were likely using analogs for previous winters with moderate-strong El Niño, which afaik suggested back loaded cold for Europe, but it’s not a large sample to study. Another connection is the Indian Ocean Dipole, can’t go into the mechanics (because I don’t understand them ) but a strongly positive IOD can disrupt cold signals, and the index peaked as forecast in December, so it’s one less negative going into latter months.
A few background signals are now at least suggesting that we’ll see a new pattern (more of a southerly jet) emerge into mid Feb. The main trop vortex lobe over Greenland will hopefully shift east towards north Russia, as the westerly flow gets blocked over the Atlantic, turning the air colder from the north. That’s the plan, mid term mayhem. |
Hundreds of posts incoming about how soul-destroying it is to ski / board in flat light and when it’s below -3C.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@franga, -12c is good for the soul, won't happen exactly like this being 300+hours away, but a nice example of what could happen if stars align
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@polo, Now that is more like it. Please ONLY post forecasts that show cold and/or snow for between 8th Feb and 17 Feb. Thanks.
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FAQ
