 Poster: A snowHead
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Thanks really interesting - it's in the link, but it's the temperature chart that is the most telling. Precipitation hasn't been an issue, it's the fact it's come down as rain not snow for anywhere below 1800.
Val thorens is having a great season as all the precipitation has been snow.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snow will start falling around 02/24. If I have to pick one place that would receive big amounts (100cm+) that would be Madessimo/St. Moritz/Bormio line but most of the Alps will receive decent amounts. It will be wet at spots, higher up less so.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Crocusses are up in the garden, #springiscoming
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| Boarderfarce wrote: |
Is it me or does this winter seem amazingly dry?
I've been following the charts since early December for our Christmas trip and now ready for our Easter trip.
The French alpes have only had 2 notable dumps of snow all winter and its been completely dry for the last few weeks. |
Yes this is the driest winter I can remember so far. But fortunately cold last few weeks so pistes holding up. Looks like winter may be coming back…
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Snow will start falling around 02/24. If I have to pick one place that would receive big amounts (100cm+) that would be Madessimo/St. Moritz/Bormio line but most of the Alps will receive decent amounts
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This is the kind of confident wild speculation that I like, given that I'm heading that way in a month. What's your reasoning on this @Cheapski? Ensembles aren't looking very promising IMO.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| Boarderfarce wrote: |
Is it me or does this winter seem amazingly dry?
I've been following the charts since early December for our Christmas trip and now ready for our Easter trip.
The French alpes have only had 2 notable dumps of snow all winter and its been completely dry for the last few weeks. |
Yes this is the driest winter I can remember so far. But fortunately cold last few weeks so pistes holding up. Looks like winter may be coming back…
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November 2020?
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| Boarderfarce wrote: |
| The French alpes have only had 2 notable dumps of snow all winter and its been completely dry for the last few weeks. |
If you think the French Alps have been dry, take a look at the inneralpine areas (e.g. southern Switzerland / northern Italy). Only about 25cm snowfall in Bormio since mid December, most of which fell on 8th January. That would make @Cheapski's weirdly specific forecast very welcome indeed - though if it proves accurate then I'll be very impressed!
| Cheapski wrote: |
| Snow will start falling around 02/24. If I have to pick one place that would receive big amounts (100cm+) that would be Madessimo/St. Moritz/Bormio line but most of the Alps will receive decent amounts. |
There are indeed some hints of a cool down or pattern change for the Alps generally in 10 days' time or so (give or take a few days), but obviously that's a long way off.
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Dr Simon Lee on Twitter.
“Here we go... the westerly winds of the upper-stratospheric polar vortex have begun decelerating. These will reverse to easterlies during Monday, culminating in an official "major sudden stratospheric warming" (daily-mean easterlies at 10 hPa & 60°N), probably on Wednesday 15th.
Exactly what happens thereafter remains much more uncertain... but we can be confident that a major SSW -- one of the most dramatic, large-scale natural atmospheric phenomena -- will take place in the coming few days, and I'm excited.“
https://twitter.com/simonleewx/status/1624500154165342210?s=46&t=7QC1O2OG-EvCWaFDuY5-Ug
So we should start to get a feel for what this will (or won’t) mean over the coming week. It does increase the potential for a sustained period of colder weather (Atlantic westerlies blocked and cold drawn in from the east) roughly two to three weeks from now. It does not guarantee it.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Do any of our experts have a change in outlook? Or is there only more mild, sunny temperatures on the horizon?
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@südtirolistdeutsch, looks like the weekend will bring some small amount of precipitation (probably rain lower down) for the eastern alps but then back to mild & sunny.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Could be some sustained snow/rain in the second half of March in the French northern Alps. Sunny (more or less except around 4 March) until then.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@südtirolistdeutsch, read the above link about SSW
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You know it makes sense.
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No one knows,
Last year some friends were in Morzine mid-March which coincided with mild conditions and the infamous sand from the Sahara being laid down on pistes. We were out in Tignes a few weeks later in the first week of April and experienced -10C, several days of snow fall and amazing powder conditions. The best skiing of all of last season in fact.
We are next out to Les Menuires on Mar 12th so hoping for something before then....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| davidof wrote: |
I'm quite good with my guesses though. this on the 1/Feb: "Doesn't look like much is on the horizon for the Isere mountains before the middle of the month, at least."
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With vague-ness like that you should take up a career writing horoscopes for The Daily Mail.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@davidof,
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Could be some sustained snow/rain in the second half of March in the French northern Alps
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Well it *always* snows for the SOPiB so that's an easy guess 
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Wigglies for Austria starting to look a lot more hopeful than they have for a while.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen,
Cold but no snow?
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@zzz, bit too early to tell on snow. Some ensembles do add snow to the mix mind you. GFS Op goes very cold again in FI this morning.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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it's coming ...
For people driving - practice putting snow chains on. Get you low vis goggles and fat skis ready and SPF 50 after this is over.
I feel bad for Venezia, lots of rain and angry seas ...
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Ok experts - any chance of a top up at the Sella Ronda before I go in 2 weeks? Enough snow at the moment it seems, but a bit more fresh stuff would be nice please.
It has to be sunny and cool when I'm there mind, so don't start coming up with a snowy March
(Back in the 80s I used to go 2nd and 3rd week of March to various Austrian resorts - I think it snowed once in a combined total of 14 weeks)
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@buchanan101, it's hard enough to call what's happening next week, let alone 2 weeks out! But signs are pointing to the weather being a bit more unsettled over the coming week or so, which can only be positive.
PS I'm not an expert
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I think it's going to get colder and there would be an expectation of snow coming somewhere, but where remains to be seen
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
Ok experts - any chance of a top up at the Sella Ronda before I go in 2 weeks? Enough snow at the moment it seems, but a bit more fresh stuff would be nice please.
It has to be sunny and cool when I'm there mind, so don't start coming up with a snowy March
(Back in the 80s I used to go 2nd and 3rd week of March to various Austrian resorts - I think it snowed once in a combined total of 14 weeks) |
Yes. Will snow from Thursday onwards for a few days and cold.
Use this link and stick in the nearest town listed. That’s fir Val Gardena
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=71671&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1
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You know it makes sense.
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Here's my take on the current model output. Obviously usual caveats re. uncertainty at these time frames.
A bit of snow for (esp. northeastern) Austrian Alps later this weekend - but rain in the valleys.
Then it gets more interesting. During the second half of next week, a bigger pattern change looks likely, but the models are split between two very different scenarios:
GFS - reasonable snowfall for large parts of the Alps. Focused on the northern Alps (anywhere from Avoriaz east to most of Austria), but SE Alps (southern Dolomites, e.g. Cortina) also seem to get a look-in, which is what @BobinCH is seeing in his post / link. 20-30cm widely, subject to change obviously, and a bit of height would help as it'll be mild at first. Then drier but cool towards March.
ECM & GEM - potential fireworks for the south(west) Italian Alps, bad news on the north side. Both models going for possible major snowfall for the western Italian Alps driven by low pressure in the Mediterranean. Perhaps not penetrating that far into the Alps, so the closer to the plains, the better. That could favour spots like the lower Aosta Valley, Prali, Prato Nevoso. Further east in Italy and far southern French Alps could also do OK. Less good on the north side of the Alps: warm, maybe a little precipitation but this would be rain at lower altitudes. Then drier, warmish towards March. Edit: there is a lot of uncertainty about precipitation amounts in both these models - so it could fizzle out, or grow and grow...
Be careful with the automated weather websites at the moment (e.g. Snowforecast.com), as they will generally only show one of the above scenarios - usually the GFS one. So they don't show the high level of uncertainty / range of likely outcomes.
Hopefully the models will come into line over the next few days, as obviously there are drastically different beneficiaries depending on which scenario is the more accurate one! Or maybe neither will end up verifying...
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Fri 17-02-23 17:21; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Interesting. Keep it coming, @denfinella, 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Agree with the post above. Models are just that and rely on data input. Different methodology would produce different results (models). But it is undeniable that both models are derived from the same set of data/empirical evidence.
Now, many industries (agriculture, energy, aviation, tourism, media and so on) do depend quite a lot on ability to accurately "predict" the weather which in turn directly affects their bottom line. Ie. financial industry uses much more detailed "forecast" that the one that is available on the web and that most users of forums like this one like to refer to when they plan their holiday and in many cases that "read" is driven by highly personalized outlook ("I will be in such and such resort at such and such time and there are some signs of snow and I believe that forecast that suits my wishes and desires ...). And while it is fun and brings joyful expectations (or worries sometimes) it is nothing but "semi-educated" guess.
OTOH, those more detailed and more accurate forecast are not available free to the public and cost quite a bit pesos any commercial entity that has need for that kind of information. I am employed in the industry that heavily depends on accurately predicting/forecasting the weather patterns. And unfortunately cost related decision had been made to step away from those expensive professional weather services. Some bean counters figured out that it is more beneficial (cheaper) to check the weather on "willitsnow.com" than spend serious money for more reliable forecast even at the cost of loosing few days due to the weather that affects normal operations. Having years of experience gives me somewhat better read on models and yet - it is still a "semi-educated" guess.
Keep in mind that not all 'semi-educated' guessing is created equal. I am fairly impressed with many posters here that obviously have better understanding than most of us "mortals".
So ... yes, it will snow next week and everybody should enjoy their holidays !
Hint ... universities with strong programs in this field are getting quite good 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The models are now even more unreliable after all @nozawaonsen's weather balloons got shot down by Biden
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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We could of course accept that the number of variables present in the atmosphere is so huge that there really is little chance of accurately forecasting for more than a couple of hours ahead no matter how much computing power we have at our disposal (no, quantum computers are not happening any time soon). Hopefully it snows in the winter and the sun shines in the summer (climate change not withstanding), no idea if it will snow in Val d'Isere on 10th March!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Munich_irish - that post is full of many inaccuracies
Atmospheric modelling is a field that is continually improving. Accurate forecast modelling is indeed possible for 'more than a few hours ahead'. I'm a pilot and modern aviation weather forecasting is very sophisticated and reliable.
Quantum computing in silicon is already happening. I assume you are Irish by you name. Equal1 Laboratories in Dublin already have a demonstrator platform.
I agree models aren't as accurate a few weeks out, but to dismiss them completely is not correct.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
little chance of accurately forecasting for more than a couple of hours ahead
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Not so sure about that but in general we are getting better at forecasting.
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Well using that other weather vernacular.
The forecasts are certainly "chopping and changing" for next week, one thing is relatively certain, is that next week at least for the Hautes Alpes, looks like a return to winter, but accumulations predicted are well below what we need for off-piste at least.
And I tend to agree with the "more than a few hours ahead" comment, though I would add the caveat "localised"
I use to live full-time in Worthing on the South Coast and from June to September, due to our close proximity to the South Downs we did get strong sea breezes, clear sky over the sea, and classic CN bubbling up sitting over the Downs and further inland showers and cloud.
What would kill the sea breezes would be some rogue cloud along with showers, from a safety perspective this is really something to to worry about as the wind would suddenly go from 25mph cross onshore SW'ly and switch to 10mph cross off-shore, dangerous if out kitesurfing.
So high-resolution rain radar* really helps in trying to predict a weather window as to when to go out, and lessen the chances of the above, and as I'm sure you've heard in F1 commentary they do similar watching to prep for potential tyre changes, however, quite often that band of showers you think is tracking your way can veer 20km away from you.
And as I've mentioned often here before, the difference in snow accumulation from valley to valley can differ substantially, as was the case back on December 17th when Serre Chevalier, fortunately, was about the only place in the French Alps to get a substantial snowfall and then keep relatively dry (no rain) that helped us get through the Xmas holidays.
And then the Summer here can be even more erratic with the lottery of localised thunderstorms and resulting flash floods and landslides that close roads and yet further up in the valley you see no rain!
* which I'll also use now to look at cloud for the all important snow freeze/melt transformation or not
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 18-02-23 10:05; edited 1 time in total
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Well I know nothing about weather forecasting, but Bergfex seems to have changed over night for la plagne - showing more snow from Wed. Bergfex is based on ECM I believe. Does that mean GFS and ECM are starting to align?
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Noticed the same, big changes on Bergfex over night, even noticed it here in Ireland with whatever model the national forecaster uses, forecast for next midweek changed significantly overnight. As @denfinella said there's a bit of a scrap between them at the moment and I think it might take another day or two to shuffle the deck. Henri on wepowder was suggesting white smoke by Monday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| Well I know nothing about weather forecasting, but Bergfex seems to have changed over night for la plagne - showing more snow from Wed. Bergfex is based on ECM I believe. Does that mean GFS and ECM are starting to align? |
For Tignes, GFS and ECM are both showing potential snow around 22nd / 23rd, but there is a fair bit of disparity in volumes - GFS shows about 18cm, ECM about 2cm !
If you want a real outlier, Meteoblue (which i think takes ensembles together ) was showing 22 cm !!
I dont pay that much attention, but quite like the Windy phone app which allows you to look at GFS, ECM, Meteoblu, DWD, Meteo France and Met Office on one page.
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FAQ
