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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

yep, they all look generally white now, are the figures the snow quantities?


They actually relate to weight, but could be used very roughly to equate to cms of snow. But they are only really useful as a general picture. The figures are definitely not that reliable.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
anything more than zero in whatever quantity apart from temperature is good for me
Cheers

Paranoid of Hants Laughing
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Let's see how it goes during the day... The charts have swung one way, they could swing back...


Callan
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nozawaonsen, what's your view on the Annivers region? snow-forecast showing light snow at the end of this week...If it's an Italian job I feel a road trip coming on!
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kitenski, low pressure building to the south of the Alps tends to favour the eastern end, Austria and Italy in particular. Clearly how much snow falls where is only really going to play out on the day. Still a lot of uncertainty about.
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To Soll or not to Soll Puzzled ... Heading 'somewhere' on Feb 5th, Soll is our preferred choice but I've been waiting and monitoring this forum (thanks Nozawaonsen) and 'Wetter' closely. The longer I wait the less options I have accommodation wise....The pressure of it all.... Confused
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The Dolomites Meto don't believe that the low pressure South of the Alps will affect the Dolomites much in terms of snow. The latest 6z GFS run though still showing precipitation over Italy/Austria on Thursday/Friday. We really need that low pressure to be centred further North or North West and the high pressure further West to get a chance of any significant snow. At the moment it all looks a bit touch and go. Hopefully we'll know more after this afternoons runs.

http://www.arpa.veneto.it/bollettini/htm/dolomiti_meteo.asp
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The Apennines could get a serious hammering if that low goes where its predicted?
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06z swings the pendulum back. Downgrade.
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nozawaonsen, I've been really enjoying all your updates!

Any idea what might be happening in Zell Am See next week? Things are looking good for snow/low temps this week.
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gutted

even Meteofrance has withdrawn its predictions of snow for Valdisere over the next few days this afternoon,it has very little support now,the Low pressure over italy will pass to far south to bring snow,never mind will be cold and i dont go for 4 weeks anyway snowHead snowHead Twisted Evil Twisted Evil
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
phillip33 yeah but looking at there site. it has just been shifted back to saturday and into start of next week. i personally am hoping for this being im in Tignes on Sunday for a week!!!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Yeah , pushed it out till next week , but I think we're still clutching at straws , sadly looks like a lot of skining end of next week to find any powder . Sad Sad Sad least it won't be raining !!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
infact if you believe the monthly forecast from the bbc they have indicated that the "blocking pattern"will stay in place for at least 4 weeks, cold but dry is on the cards, so if you are going out to the ALps check for snow cannons before you book,because i suspect making is the only way that a lot of resorts will see snow of sorts for a while at least

hope i,m wrong Sad
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
phillip33 wrote:
infact if you believe the monthly forecast from the bbc they have indicated that the "blocking pattern"will stay in place for at least 4 weeks, cold but dry is on the cards, so if you are going out to the ALps check for snow cannons before you book,because i suspect making is the only way that a lot of resorts will see snow of sorts for a while at least

hope i,m wrong Sad


That is depressing news Sad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'll be really depressed if it came from Brian Gaze at Weather outlook , I,ll never forget the BBC's prediction of a mild Dec and New Year in 2009 against Weather Outlooks Snowy and Cold , guess who was right .
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen, Callan. That takes me back. Very Happy I'd love to see that series again. "Lonely" the smelly sidekick, et al. Great TV.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
who,s Brian gaze i,m off to google
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dont worry ive found him

i think he agree,s cold and dry for the forseeable future,so start getting depressed ! sorry
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 brian
brian
Guest
Rob Mackley, nobody gets consistently good results with LRFs, Brian Gaze included.
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phillip33 wrote:
infact if you believe the monthly forecast from the bbc they have indicated that the "blocking pattern"will stay in place for at least 4 weeks, cold but dry is on the cards, so if you are going out to the ALps check for snow cannons before you book,because i suspect making is the only way that a lot of resorts will see snow of sorts for a while at least

hope i,m wrong Sad


Assuming you mean this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Then that is for the UK.....doesn't affect the Alps (necessarily...)
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
kitenski wrote:
phillip33 wrote:
infact if you believe the monthly forecast from the bbc they have indicated that the "blocking pattern"will stay in place for at least 4 weeks, cold but dry is on the cards, so if you are going out to the ALps check for snow cannons before you book,because i suspect making is the only way that a lot of resorts will see snow of sorts for a while at least

hope i,m wrong Sad


Assuming you mean this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Then that is for the UK.....doesn't affect the Alps (necessarily...)
yes thanks!! i,m no good with computors Confused
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
re effecting alps, i agree it doesnt directly effect them,but ive found in my snow watching the bbc to be quite accurate,especially their maps of europe they often show snow etc,infact i check snow-forecast first , then meteofrance,then the bbc maps,and finally the snowheads predictions, if all 4 say snow i believe it, this last predicted snowfall (to fall from thurs )was predicted by all but the bbc site and guess who,s going to be right!!!

so thats my theory ,what are my fellow snow watching theories checks and double checks etc....
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As far as I am aware snow forecast extrapolates it's data from the operational GFS run.

My own feeling is that the extent of the snowfall around the second half of this week in the Alps has been hard to predict. Not least because it is likely to be influenced by small changes in the position of high pressure building over the UK.

I remain of the view that what snow does fall is more likely to fall in Austria and parts of Italy. The further east the more likely to get some snowfall.
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Chris Brookes,
Wouldn't take too much notice of BBC Weather; dont think they are known for their accuracy.
Mitch
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The pre christmas dump of snow for the UK which took out Heathrow was forecast with very high confidence on here weeks before BBC or the metoffice, or anyone else for that matter.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
phillip33, Reverse your search order and you'll soon find you don't need to go beyond the first source
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Well we just booked today for Pila, so currently crossing everything that snow makes it way to that part of Italy, although they are currently reporting powder conditions and have snow forecast, we were looking at Austria last night and there was not a lot left on the package front for the three of us, so we finally bit the bullet and booked!!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Anyone feeling particularly rich can purchase what are very accurate forecasts for Europe or UK from Weatheraction.com

The guy who runs it - Piers Corbyn, is very much at odds with most popular forecasters such as the BBC etc but he does have a good track record to accurately forecast for a longer period ahead than most other forecasters.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Interestingly (and kind of related to a post I made elsewhere) I have just received an email from a certain ski company...

"Stunning blue skies and glorious sunshine in quiet resorts mean all those **** **** guests and staff updating us from the Alps are feeling pretty pleased about life. More snow is set to top up levels right across the mountains from tomorrow and continuing into the weekend."

Do they know something other people do not?
Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
woo-hooooo : off to Arabba tomoz, and looking good

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

More snow is set to top up levels right across the mountains from tomorrow and continuing into the weekend

and where would that be? If it was anywhere in France I'd take it with a pinch of salt.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Forecast for Zell am See, (I think):

http://www.wzkarten.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html

http://www.ski-finder.co.uk/grab_gfs.php?lat=47&lon=13

and

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/sport-freizeit/ski-wetter/oesterreich/salzburg/schmittenhoehe

Hope that helps. Doesn't look as bad as it did last week, i.e balmy and wet!! Little Angel
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Sorry, top URL- you just need to choose your spot on the map (47 13)
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The situation remains broadly where it was yesterday morning.

High pressure looking likely to dominate, cold temperatures, but not a great deal of snow.

The last 24 hours have shown how easy it would be to switch... But this evening the outlook suggests that high pressure will remain in control for the coming week.

The low pressure south of the Alps will likely mean there is some snowfall in Italy and Austria. Though not large amounts.

Given how tightly balanced the various evolutions are I would not be too surprised to see a change by tomorrow morning, but I would not expect it at this stage. Cold and dry seems to sum up next week best at this stage...

[in a truck somewhere, very dry, not too far from Alexandria, ice cold beer somewhere in the distance...]
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Mattb, Thanks, seems we're in for some schneefall before we get there - and cold. Good, good snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
It's snowing big time in Munich right now Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin

When I arrived in work it was still clear (I could see the stars at 06:00), but was clouding up. I've just looked out of the window after a couple of hours serious concentration and seen that the sky is falling on the cars outside!

Mega snowflakes - hope this is being repeated in the mountains as well!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
glad its finally remembered how to do that somewhere Laughing Now if you can organise for DHL to collect some of those shower clouds and shift them west, we'd be very grateful - enjoy!

Just having a nosey about and Meteo.fr suggests a somewhat snowier outlook for next week than I can find anywhere but appears to have dialed back from its position of quelques flocons during the next few days.

In summary, if there is one thing for certain....its uncertainty Shocked snowHead
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Samerberg Sue, snowflakes look big Very Happy in Schladming area this morning:

http://www.hauser-kaibling.at/en/wetter-schnee/webcams/index.htm?c=1
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There should be some snowfall in the Eastern Alps over the next two or three days. Particularly in Austria. A last minute shift may mean that the Dolomites miss out, which is a shame as it looked like they might receive quite a bit. We'll see.

Although locally there may be quite a bit of snowfall in Austria overall it doesn't look like a really large fall to me, but snow nevertheless. wink

Temperatures will continue to fall heading into the weekend. Where they go next is linked to the high pressure system currently building over the UK. Over the last week the models have shifted the position of the high pressure system back and forth. Small differences to its position have big implications for the weather in the Alps next week. If the high pressure sits a little further west it allows cold air from the north to flow down over Europe bringing colder temperatures and increasing the chance of snow (especially in the east).

My impression at the moment is that the most likely outcome is that the high pressure will not allow the colder and snowier weather in. So next week will be cold in the Alps, but dry and increasingly sunny as the week goes on. Temperatures rising back towards seasonal average as the week progresses.

However, although this scenario is looking more likely at present it is still quite possible that a different pattern could evolve. 00z GFS came close to this, but in the end stuck to the high pressure idea. 00z ECM looked slightly better for cold and snow...
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