 Poster: A snowHead
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Morzine village is nudging 5-10c for much this week -- at night.
Temps -- for deepest winter -- are incredible.
The spring "tipping point" for the Alps is now less than 3 weeks away.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Unless of course Deepest Winter and the Spring Tipping Point are no longer in their traditional place in the calendar. Maybe it’s the traditional historical view of what should be happening now that’s causing so many consternation. Time frames and locations are changing
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| mountainaddict wrote: |
According to the outlook on Accuweather.com, the daytime temperature in Morzine (alt. 1000m) will not fall below freezing between now and 4th March 2024  Incredible for Jan/Feb.
They will hopefully be able to make snow overnight. |
Unlikely that night time snowmaking will happen with warm daytime temps, I'm afraid. The sun doesn't get strong enough to make a big difference in day/night temperatures until late Feb and iirc, snowmaking needs -4ish, depending on humidity.
The good news is that AccuWeather doesn't have a didgeridoo of the temps as far out as 4th March.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Just out of curiosity, what does Deepest Winter and the Spring Tipping Point mean? I am unfamiliar with those terms.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I think the Spring Tipping Point is the first time someone says there’s a grand stretch in the evening
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| jirac18 wrote: |
| Unless of course Deepest Winter and the Spring Tipping Point are no longer in their traditional place in the calendar. |
And the length of "Deepest Winter" isn't also reducing? Feels like it's about 3 days long these days. Each season we are getting horrified by the "high" temperatures, refusing to accept this is the new norm.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Theobane wrote: |
| Just out of curiosity, what does Deepest Winter and the Spring Tipping Point mean? I am unfamiliar with those terms. |
Spring Tipping Point marks the recording of new series for Ben Shephard
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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An area of exceptionally warm air is sitting over the Atlantic between the Canaries and Iberian peninsula with 850 hPa (5000ft) temperatures above 15C and the models indicate that it will spread into Central Europe during the coming weekend. The air mass will cool somewhat owing to contact with cooler land and radiative cooling (nights are still longer than days). It will however result in unusually high temperatures over the Alps next week - 5000ft temperatures may well be above 10C for a while. I've been skiing this coming week for more than 30 years and I've never seen temperatures like this.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Onelasttime1!, Any idea how long it might last? Last February Half Term in the Alps we had 12/13 degrees are we looking like a repeat of that around 10th-17 February or too early to tell?
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| James77 wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, Any idea how long it might last? Last February Half Term in the Alps we had 12/13 degrees are we looking like a repeat of that around 10th-17 February or too early to tell? |
HT is still 3.5 weeks away ... no one knows. There are some indications that next week's warm temperatures will be relatively short-lived returning to seasonal averages from the 3rd / 4th of February. In the meantime, grab your shades, order a beer or an aperol and enjoy the views.
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You know it makes sense.
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| James77 wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, Any idea how long it might last? Last February Half Term in the Alps we had 12/13 degrees are we looking like a repeat of that around 10th-17 February or too early to tell? |
It's too early to tell. 7 days ahead is about the best we can do with any confidence and even then things can change significantly. However, given that the Atlantic Ocean is much warmer than 'normal' any flow from the west will result in above normal temperatures over Europe.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Don't anyone mention anthropogenic global warming! New Yorkers must continue flying over for a weekend in Val D'Isere, in fact nothing should come between any of us and a fly-drive weekend in the Alps! I doubt many people will be flying to the Pyrenees though.
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Poster: A snowHead
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GFS been pulling up a change after 3rd Feb on a few runs now
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Fingers crossed, whenever I look at the gfs 850s it's terrifying seeing all those yellow, orange and even some red colours out west. I've never noticed it being like that for so long in the past. As onelastime1 above says, the Atlantic is exceptionally warm to the west so anything coming from that direction, as most weather does, is going to be warmer than it should be. There are signs of a cool down though, as you say. Fingers crossed, never mind our holidays, many people's livelihoods are at risk. A lot of very worrying prognoses doing the rounds regards this temperature anomaly, but that's for the AGW thread.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I’ve changed the climate change thread heading to something more suitable .
Climate change in the Alpine Areas of Europe discussion thread
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I'm also trying to understand the weather a bit at the moment. I thought I was just stressed about my vacation but I think I'm starting to understand what people mean when they talk about eco-anxiety.
Anyways, out of curiosity I've checked out all the links posted about Chamonix. I usually snow-forecast, as it works the best for me in my area. I don't see such high temperatures as +10C on the forecast there.
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Chamonix/12day/mid
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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5C and rain in Livigno at 6pm today. Have never seen rain in Jan in the 15+ years I've been visiting. To be fair though, it was -26C on Sat Morning.
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@Rob Mackley,
GFS seems to be getting progressively more interested in the start of Feb. Need ECM to join the party before getting too excited...
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| michebiche wrote: |
@Rob Mackley,
GFS seems to be getting progressively more interested in the start of Feb. Need ECM to join the party before getting too excited... |
Spotted the GFS pattern a couple of days ago, way out in FI. Even GFS on its own doesnt convince me yet (time, ensembles) but its a straw, and I'm gonna clutch at it!!
What I'm seeing is colder from the East, at the moment not much in the way of precipitation though...
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Looks to me like the warm weather will continue. We seem to have had a succession of relatively warm February half-term weeks. I think that trend is set to continue. At least most places have a reasonable snow base this year.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Torrential rain and 9c in Schladming just now, the WC skiers shown on Eurosport are competing in vile weather.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Did whiplash weather get mentioned yet?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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So temps at 2000m look like they may never drop below freezing from Saturday for around a week.
What happens to the pistes in this situation? Or is that unprecedented so nobody really knows??
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If it’s dry that will be a positive, only thing worse than mild temperatures, wet mild temperatures
I have 2 weeks coming up and it’s looking like 2 weeks of spring skiing, early skiing each day and slushy around lunchtime
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You know it makes sense.
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| Theobane wrote: |
| Just out of curiosity, what does Deepest Winter and the Spring Tipping Point mean? I am unfamiliar with those terms. |
* Deepest winter = absolute coldest part of the season.
* Spring tipping point = Northern Hemisphere absolute peak / trough of winter coldness (Feb 12). Oceans warmup, and Earth tilts more toward the Sun.
January should be cold and snowy -- from summit to valley.
Instead, it's pouring down with tropical rain.
The question now is whether some Western, Eastern, or Southern European resorts will start to close early in Feb or Mar.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| km0193 wrote: |
So temps at 2000m look like they may never drop below freezing from Saturday for around a week.
What happens to the pistes in this situation? Or is that unprecedented so nobody really knows?? |
I would think this happens regularly in Spring and I've had lots of pleasant skiing in Spring so I wouldn't worry too much about it.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Theobane wrote: |
| Just out of curiosity, what does Deepest Winter and the Spring Tipping Point mean? I am unfamiliar with those terms. |
The question now is whether some Western, Eastern, or Southern European resorts will start to close early in Feb or Mar. |
I think the trend of low lying resorts coming under pressure will continue. But I think the higher resorts and those with good snow making will be ok.
I'm more interested in what it might do to prices in those higher resorts!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
I've had lots of pleasant skiing in Spring so I wouldn't worry too much about it.
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I've had lots of pleasant skiing in Spring too, early April can be lovely. But a month later the skiing is generally rubbish almost everywhere. And a month from now is 24 February - peak season!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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True, but there will be cold spells again. I skied mid May last year, there had just been a dump and the slopes were squeaky with fresh.
Its depressing but a little early to be writing off February.... I was skiing lots of fresh two weeks ago also, it will come back
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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There is another thread for this.
Personally, I am interested in the here and nearly now - five days and what is going to happen. Anything beyond that is for tortured minds and computer models with loads of spaghetti.
So, please leave this thread for those who want to talk about weather and not about climate
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ah no, two weeks of FL and long term predictions allowed
Plus I've skin in the game as going to Tonale next week
IIRC the pre season long range predictions were November to be cold, December to be warm and then from late January / February cold and snowy. Could still come true?
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It's not looking good. Most long term (10 - 14 day) forecasts are showing freezing level constantly above 3000 m (even at night). I have to say I am getting a bit fed up with having to ski at half term (kids in exam years), as the majority recently have seen warm temperatures. So spring like weather without the advantages of the spring opportunities! Most of my off-pistes recently has been earlier or later in the season.
I really enjoy a proper cold spell for piste skiing but never seen to get that in half-term week!
Can any of the more expert posters offer any reassurance?!!!!
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@zikomo, If you read above some expert posters have suggested a change may happen early February but too early to tell. After last years warm February HT I was hoping we'd be repaid with a corker this year sadly looks like could be destined for another vest wearing slush week.
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I feel like the forecasts are super shaky at the moment. Outcomes drastically changes from one update to another.
Can someone let me know how I can add photos to my posts so I can show an example?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@James77, Agree on all points! I feel like I am overdue a good half term week....
Slush fest will probably be right. Need to get my head shifted into spring family skiing mode. Early starts and long lunches might be the order of the day. Will try and cheer myself up by planning where we will go for lunch each day.
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@8611, see you there, head out on 27th. Not liking watching the snow melt on the web cams
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