The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

A snowHead

I am a newbie to these boards and have been lurking and reading the contributions before my trip to La Clusaz in two weeks time but I am I think slowly learning what all this means and would like to offer my heartfelt thanks to everybody posting here, especially nozawaonsen, who knows what on earth all this stuff means. If I had just looked at current conditions I would have been in a severe blue funk by now, but these forecasts give me hope as I watch them develop during the working day.
Kevin

A snowHead

ViscountFishpond, Welcome to snowheads.

Me too! I am glued to these updates by nozawaonsen. 2 weeks to go.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Thank God for Nozawaonsen. Otherwise everyone would be very depressed heheh

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It does look like a very warm and pleasantly sunny Sunday in the Alps. Today though looks like it should be the warmest weather for some time...

Temperatures could drop nearly 10c between the end of today and Wednesday morning in parts of France (Monday and Tuesday will still be mild! The fall is just an indicator of how warm it is today.)

Temperatures then look like falling up to a further 10c from Wednesday to Friday morning and that will feel altogether colder! Here is how temperatures could look come Saturday morning...

There are still indications that low pressure will develop south of the Alps on Thursday. This should bring some snow across the Alps. This mornings output looks slightly less strong and seems to favour Austria and Italy... But it could very easily change, so worth watching how it develops.

As for the week beyond, I would have to say it is rather unclear at present. The last couple of runs have shifted to a more high pressure dominated week which keeps out the potential from the north and east. It does not at this stage look like it will be mild. Indeed the mean never really gets above seasonal averages and spends most of the week a fair bit below them. But it is a gently warming trend once we get to the low temperatures of next weekend rather than the solid cold outlook of the last couple of runs. I would add though that this could certainly change and the models have as I have mentioned been throwing a range of scenarios up. 06z just limbering up... wink

[edit to update map]

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control run on the ensemble i'm watching looks to shoot through the average temp towards the later half of week after next. not much support for it from others but unusual how tese things ebb and flow so much, couple of days previous was showing a further fall to pretty chilly temps. Watching and waiting... Cool

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Not too bad this morning (06z). Still too much high pressure in FI, primarily over the UK which prevents low pressure (and snow) from making real inroads. At the moment.

Temperature wise it is looking pretty ok. 06z better than the previous run, keeping almost all the runs quite a bit below seasonal averages and only rising towards them right at the end of the run (for comparison purposes, turn you computer upside down and look at the ensembles and imagine how depressing it would be if they were that far above average for the whole run!).

Snow is now looking pretty alright for Italy and Austria on Wednesday and Thursday, with good cold temperatures. It would of course be good if this could develop across the Alps (there will be some further west, though not as much). There looks like being further snow on or around 24 January (again rather favouring the east at present). ECM is rather better than GFS to my mind...

In Japan... 40cm+ in Hakuba. And in Myoko... which had 110cm the other day... Another 70cm in the last 24 hours...

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

I have been avidly reading the reports as we booking are week away from next weekend and are just wondering where to go for the best snow! Thanks nozawaonsen, for all your reports. From your report today am I right in thinking Austria, would be a safer bet than France. We have two deals we are looking at one in Courchevel and one in Ellmau, Courchevel has light snow forecast Ellmau heavier snow, but then we are thinking Courchevel is a lot higher and how accurate are the forecasts!

We are very new to skiing with one week behind us didn't realize how much there is to choosing the resort!

After all it is free

jo123,
Ellmau is quite low and no access to very high stuff if the weather warms again; Nice place though; went there a couple of years ago. If you want Austria maybe pick somewhere that has access to a higher ski area, such a Mayrhofen, so if you do get a bit of a thaw it wont be such a problem.
Courchevel will have good snow but you'll need deep pockets there.
Mitch

welcome

for me i would go to COURCHEVEL as higher,better still Val thorens or Valdisere,all are high especially VAL THORENS austria may get the better of the snow but it may melt!, in fact i,d hold out til thurs /friday,are you driving or flying

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Fascinating reading this, thoroughly apprciated.

We are going to Samoens w/c 29th January and keeping fingers crossed for these temperatures to drop as expected and a good dollop of snow....although a small dollop would be acceptable!

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Thanks for your comments, very helpful.
We are flying, what slightly complicates the issue is there a three of us wanting two rooms so we are a bit nervous about leaving it too late in case there is nothing left! The deal we are looking at in Courchevel is in a chalet with cooked brekkie everyday so only need a snack lunch! Plus we will drink a lot at dinner!
Jo

snow reports

jo123, add a minimum of 300m to the heights for Austria and then you can start to compare like with like. As Austria is further inland than France (speaking continentally here), the average snowline is considerably lower than that need to maintain pistes in France.

Can we finally put this idiotic height myth to bed please. Going by the same logic, there should be no skiing in Scotland, Japan or Norway as they are nowhere near as high as France rolling eyes

According to all the reports I've read here, Courchevel rates as one of the most expensive places in the Trois Vallees region and is up there with the other well known suspects. as it is a while since I was based in France I cannot comment from recent personal experience as my last French ski resort was Le Loiran in the Cantal.

jo123, I'm not sure I would be too concerned about the weather from next weekend based on how things look today...

The likelihood at this stage is that that week will be quite cool. Probably below average for the time of year for much of the week (it is of course over a week away and so confidence in what it will be like must be considered to be low - so you end up with a sort of convoluted statement like with low confidence the probability for cooler temperatures seems higher than for milder ones...).

It does look at present that there is a higher chance of there being more snow over the next week and for a few days after in the east rather than the west (this could change), but I think the most important thing for you with a week under your belt is that the cold temperatures will allow the pistes to be kept in good condition and nicely groomed. You don't need deep powder. Indeed you may enjoy clear visibility more.

I've not been to Ellmau, but I do know that in Courchevel they do a very good job of keeping the pistes in shape (I'm sure they do in Ellmau too, I've just never been there).

Personally speaking I prefer the atmosphere in the Austrian Alps and the prices do tend to be cheaper, but that's quite subjective. On the other hand Courchevel is a large high area with some great mountain scenery and very good piste skiing. On balance I would make your decision on the other factors involved (including price, accommodation, gut feeling etc) rather than concern over the weather...

You know it makes sense.

jo123, I'm flying out this Sat and I haven't booked a room yet Laughing

Hoping to hear something back from an enquiry tomorrow morning rolling eyes

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Thank you everyone for taking the time to reply, all very helpful. I do fancy Ellmau as we went to Austria (Solden) last year, and thoroughly enjoyed the holiday, but we were lucky enough to have beautifully groomed pistes, then fresh snow half way through the week so we have been spoilt and hope for the same this year. I had done a week more than 20 years ago when we seemed to be skiing on lumps of ice so want to make the right choice! Plus I am going with my son and his girlfriend who are leaving the decision to me, no pressure to gt it right then. wink

I am keeping an eye on the availaibity and will hold off booking for a day or so I think till the weather forecast can be more accurate.

Scarpa, have you looked at ski amis they do accommodation only and their prices seem ok.

A snowHead

jo123, do you already have flights booked, if so where to? You could think of places like stuben etc...

A snowHead

Real lack of consistency in the models into FI... but trending slightly colder than it was this morning... (but with the way the models are switching back and forth it could all change... a steep cool down for this week though still very much on the cards).

ECM shows the way at +168, week on Sunday, 23 January (cold across Alps, low pressure to the south which holds for several days)

GFS operational also shows some lower temperatures than this mornings runs.

Looking at GFS I would take a shot at the week after next being fairly cold, but fairly dry.

Looking at ECM I would say possibly very cold and quite snowy.

So... We'll have to see how it goes... wink

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

nozawaonsen, thanx for the info. Any chance of putting numbers/ranges behind the terms "fairly cold" and "very cold" ? are you talking 10 below, 20 below, colder?

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sounds like a proper lottery at the moment. I'd like to get all snowheads doing the dance please, need some light and fluffies pleeeeeease

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

dfl, at over seven days out trying to put any sort of range on how things would look for the following week is almost certainly a doomed exercise...

But... daytime for GFS looks to me like around -5c to -7c for much of that week at 1500m, edging up through the week (about 2-4c cooler in the east). ECM looks about -10c to -12c. Overnight could be quite a lot cooler depending on the weather (looking like you could see below -20c in the Tyrol). But all of that is a pretty massive generalisation!

It doesn't look like really unpleasant cold (say below -15c), but it will feel very different from this weekend I imagine.

(given the range of scenarios being offered by different models for the weather in a week's time - many of which spin out from fairly small shifts in the position of the high pressure which will form over the UK in the coming week- I would only underline that the evolution of the weather from next weekend is very uncertain).

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nozawaonsen, I am thinking of skiing in Japan next year would you say that your namesake would be a good place to go or would you recommend anywere else?

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Got back from Austria yesterday afternoon. On Thursday it was raining right up to 1800 metres above Zell am See. The final top part of the mountain which max's out at 2000 metres had wet gloopy snow - very difficult to pick up any momentum on moderate slopes. We skied all the black runs earlier on in the week which were all hard pack and icy so we went back and skied them again - there was hardly anybody around and we more or less had them to ourselves - the rain had softened them up and we had some quite amazing ski-ing - carving some fast controlled turns in the softened snow. On Friday we skied on the glacier at Kaprun which had 30 cm of fresh powder on the upper part we had hoped that we could ski the free ride itinerary routes but there was a level 4 avalanche risk and all 5 routes were officially closed so we skied in between the pistes on some very good quality snow. All in all a very mixed week - although we have been very fortunate over the years in that we have never skied in the rain. What a very strange start to the season - all the more strange in that we skied some great powder on our local hill in Lancashire on boxing day that has a lowly altitude of some 400 feet. I will be watching this thread very carefully over the next month as we are now on the countdown to our next trip at the end of next month - in the meantime we will hold fire on where we book until the situation improves. Back to work tomorrow and by 10.30 - I can guarantee that I will be wishing I was ski-ing in the rain.

After all it is free

The outlook for this week is for cooler (0c at 1500m by end of tomorrow), then colder (-10c at 1500m by start of Thursday) temperatures to move in.

Similarly as the week progresses cloud cover is likely to increase around midweek, though it looks like sunshine will be making a return by the end of the week.

There is a good chance of snow in the eastern Alps on Wednesday and Thursday. Less so in the west. Though colder temperatures from midweek should allow for snowmaking to start up.

Looking out into the distance... Although the UK is currently quite wet and wild, it looks like from midweek a strong high pressure system is going to build over the UK. And keep building. As presently modeled this will become pretty dominant over much of Europe by next week. And as a result is likely to hold off any incursions of low pressure towards the Alps. And indeed any new snow beyond this week. It could change. But currently the best modeled option for a snowier outlook next week (ECM) is this morning moving closer to the GFS drier outlook.

So at present the week from 23 January is looking quite cold, possibly quite sunny, but quite dry. With temperatures heading back towards seasonal average by the end of the run...

So once again...

Ice Cold in Alex

(dalepiperoberts I'd suggest you ask this as a more general question in the Japan 2010-2011 thread, you'll get a better set of answers. If I was going from the UK I would probably aim for Niseko or Hakuba as they are better set up for visitors from the UK).

permision to swear really rather loudly captain..... Smile

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Wow - what fantastic snow report coverage. heading off to Oberlech on 22nd and now quite looking forward to it!! Someone on an opposing ski website put me onto this snow report so nozawaonsen has a really good reputation over there Cool

Many thanks again for such in depth info

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Quite small changes in how the high pressure sets up later this week can have quite a big impact next week. So there could yet be some quite big shifts. Early next week, around Monday 24 January looks like it still has some potential to me...

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as long as its potential for some snowage in tignes its all good. going to leave it till the last minute to decide whether to pack the power skis

Kitenski, no flights booked yet, so looking at packages plus also can still get some cheap flights to Geneva.

You know it makes sense.

nozawaonsen, i would have thought the cannons would be set to go like good uns when the temps drop, what effect will this have on the piste conditions??

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

Quick look at this evening's charts... Not too bad... wink

The high pressure over the UK sits just a little further west by the end of the week in this evening's runs (compared to this morning's) and as a result allows more low pressure to flow down from the north...

At first glance this sort of set up would look quite good for Austria next week, possibly some snow for the Schladming night race... But it is all very tightly balanced...

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, latest Scottish outlook please mate, webcams are starting to look a bit bare apart from on the piste!

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Off to Ste Foy again next wed so already becoming obsessed with the forecast , tonights forecast on France Meteo for BSM looks too good to be true , please weather experts let me down gently .

http://france.meteofrance.com/france/meteo?PREVISIONS_PORTLET.path=previsionsville%2F730540%2FT

They have snow from 20th to 24th .

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nozawaonsen, The last three years I've been at the night race it's snowed, two of those years it was very warm just before the race. I'm out in schladming way for a few days this weekend, watching the race on TV in UK this year, but like the sound of snow on the way. wetter.at had snow from wed onwards for the next 6 days. Fingers crossed.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Ricklovesthepowder,

relax, you do this everytime it looks a bit bare Laughing

Also, I won't be around the ski area's, I'll be dabbing around the back country.

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As I see it there are two potential routes to snow over the next week...

The first is the low pressure system which sits beneath the Alps from about Wednesday to Saturday. It doesn't look like it is going to really get going at the moment... But it should certainly bring some snow especially to the eastern Alps. Possibly to the western Alps.

Secondly there is the potential from about Monday onwards. Looking stronger this evening around middle of next week (ie far enough to completely change!).

Here there is a real split. This morning's GFS for Wednesday week looked like this.

Whereas this evening's ECM looks like this.

In the GFS model the whole of Europe is dominated by high pressure. In the ECM the high pressure sits to the west of Ireland and low pressure has been allowed to flow down from the north. I pick these mainly to illustrate how the set up in FI can vary quite significantly depending on a relatively small difference of how the high pressure sets itself up later this week (and of course in between the models there are a range of ensembles too. You can see this in the ensembles for the Arlberg below and how they really start to diverge around Monday.

All of which is a rather long winded way of saying it is difficult to really get a clear sense of how things might play. For now I still can't see a really large amount of snow over the next week... though I can see some and certainly quite a bit of cold. It looks to me at present like it will be snowier in the eastern Alps than the western.

Scotland looks fairly dry for the next week... (a dusting tomorrow night?)

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

To underline the point GFS 18z has just come up with an operational run which does indeed move the high pressure further west and allows more cold to flow through from the north.

Here is how is how the GFS 00z looked this morning... and here is how GFS 18z looks this evening (all in a very illustrative way, don't worry about the detail...)

I know which one I prefer!

So still very much up for grabs! wink

[edit: this will make less sense now as the 17/01 GFS 00z has rolled on to the 18/01 GFS 00z suffice to say yesterday morning's map had a lot more green in it].

After all it is free

yep, they all look generally white now, are the figures the snow quantities? Toofy Grin

Models take another further step towards a better evolution for snow in the Alps this morning... wink

The low pressure south of the Alps is looking more purposeful and and the positioning of the high near the UK allowing cold air to pour down from the north.

So colder temperatures for the next week and the chances of snow increasing, especially if you are in Austria and particularly Italy.

Here are some ensembles near Folgaria.

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Looks like an Italian job next week to me... Cool

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