 Poster: A snowHead
|
| buchanan101 wrote: |
@snoozeboy, Yup - maybe not the last ice age, but I was rained on in Les Deux Alpes in the late 1980s at around 2000m+
Climate change could well mean it gets more frequent, but it's happened for ages on occasion |
From a NW Alps point of view, if the flow comes from the NW at the right time of year, generally we get snow. Too much W and we get rain to a moderate altitude and Bob shouting, "go high or go home"  Go clockwise from NW and it gets progressively colder but drier. SW flows always, rain to the top.
As far as I can see it with my basic understanding, global warming makes the NW window narrower , both in terms of time of year and the angle of attack. I don't think global warming brings a higher frequency of SW flows. I think that's just bad luck at this time of the year. I guess the big question is how fast the window closes.
I apologise insincerely to the uptight guy for not talking about what he (politely) insists we talk about. Climate and climate change, for me, is absolutely relevant to talking about the weather. Just scroll down FFS.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
@snoozeboy, naff off onto the special thread that's been crested for all this endless guff
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
This place sometimes. All climate change chat in the climate change thread. This is for people who want to talk about squiggles, ICONs, EGMs, and what the shepherds say about the snow/rain/sun forecast.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Snow in our garden in Morzine this morning, which was unexpected. Latest GFS shows a very warm (but dry) couple of days next weekend before a period of much (op run shows very much…) lower temperatures.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
[quote="snoozeboy"]
| buchanan101 wrote: |
@snoozeboy,
I apologise insincerely to the uptight guy for not talking about what he (politely) insists we talk about. Climate and climate change, for me, is absolutely relevant to talking about the weather. Just scroll down FFS. |
This last statement of yours definitely says more about you than I.
I’m not uptight.
I’m not insisting anyone talks about or doesn’t talk about anything.
I’m politely asking that a thread stays on track so I and all the other non-selfish snowheads can come here for weather information without having to scroll down through pages of climate discussion.
But of course you can’t resist poking with an insincere apology because you think your opinion on climate change must be heard and you don’t care where and who hears it. You could have just as easily posted in the climate change crisis thread created for you yesterday, but have deliberately decided to post it here. Perhaps you like the attention and arguments it causes. I don’t. Many others don’t.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
And then people wonder why Noza no longer posts..
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@2waterford, Exactly.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
loved noza over the years, where has he gone?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Back on track with a look forward for the next week or so. The models are once again very consistent for the next 7 days, with events driven by a strong westerly jetstream over the Atlantic bringing two major storms towards Northern Scotland. The first of these storms will bring warm air to the Alps from the west during Sunday replacing the near perfect conditions this weekend. A weak cold front will graze past the Alps later on Monday with a mix of light rain or snow depending on resort level. The second storm will repeat the process later on Wednesday with another plume of warm air spreading from the west. The cold front will once again graze the Alps on Thursday bringing light rain or snow.
As we move towards next weekend, there are indications from the high resolution main runs that pressure will build over Europe binging a more settled spell of weather - I hope so as it's my week in the Alps! There's not much support for this in the lower resolution ensembles, but this is a trend we have seen before with the higher resolution models suggesting an amplification of the flow ahead of the ensembles.
The link shows the ECMWF run from 00Z: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=3005&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 Note that the main run in green has lower 850 hPa (5000 feet) temperature than most of the ensembles next weekend which comes about from the build of pressure over Europe.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
"pressure will build over Europe binging a more settled spell of weather" means sunny cold days?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Thanks @Onelasttime1! - I enjoy the clarity and eloquence of your posts. To my untrained eye, there are hints (in the long run - 2 weeks out) that the upcoming spell of high pressure may only last until the end of the month. Which I do find hard to believe given how long these cycles tend to last for at this time of year. Meanwhile, many webcams (even those below 1,500 metres) are looking fabulous today.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Condescension, terms as ffs, would result in a punch on the nose most places where I live if done face to face. That’s why generally people don’t do it. It’s the relative anonymity of any online site that leads to different standards. Behave as you would to some decent person who is a friend of a friend, and we can’t go wrong. It’s pretty obvious as this is a snow sports site, that people are looking for forecasts as to conditions where and when they will be skiing or boarding. A discussion on where the overall climate is going is for another place now created.
Back on track, a big dip in temps for Zermatt at the end of the month on latest gfs run. We will see if this continues.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| nunex wrote: |
| "pressure will build over Europe binging a more settled spell of weather" means sunny cold days? |
The detail of how much sun and temperature will very much depend on the location of the high pressure and whether or not we get airflow from the east or west. Given the timescale, we are some way from knowing that detail yet, but hints of a more settled spell to end the month.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Let's hope we can get good conditions in Arlberg, then. I'm going there too, next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
Although it's strectching the limits of any confidence, it looks (to me) as though the models are tending to agree on warm(er) air from the west for the 27th (PreBB) and the same out to the 3rd (BB). I'm oviously focussed on N. Italy, but it seems a similar story across most of Europe.
Will be watching closely to see whether to pack the down jacket, waterproof or extra SPF! Not a lot of evidence of anything popping up to change that outlook, yet...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
@EarthWindandWater, Ignoring models etc it’s a long time since we’ve had a snowy Feb that delivers the goods every changeover day …….we are due one … probably wishful thinking
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
ATC restrictions have been put in place tomorrow at Heathrow
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
All my driving trips to the Alps I could get by on slick car tyres and wear a t-shirt in the Alps just once I'd love get my snow tyres on snow and feel as if I'm driving to an alpine e environment rather than needing to buy a higher spf.
Are any models predicting it may cool down for half term in 3 weeks or am I to expect 12/13 degrees as we had last half term?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| James77 wrote: |
Are any models predicting it may cool down for half term in 3 weeks or am I to expect 12/13 degrees as we had last half term? |
I’d guess 50% of the models currently saying temps will be below average at that range… 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yet more rain below 1500m today in France, such as Chamonix.
Zero iso zooming back up to 3000-4000m in Italy and France by Weds / Thurs.
Extensive rain in Austria, such as Kitzbuhel, below 1000-2000m for pretty much the whole week.
Kitz on track for 5 straight days of rain this week.
Kitz looks set to be +5c by midweek -- at nite!
The European Alps remain hot hot hot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
A lot of snow in St Anton this week, though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turning to snow in Chamonix right now after a little rain.
Nothing to fret about 
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Looks like we’re welcoming high pressure for the next couple of weeks over NW alps ?
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Mon 22-01-24 20:33; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
@Alpinebear, seems so, but I’m hoping for colder weather by the end of next week. Allow cannons for home runs to fire up, even if lower pistes are affected.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Looking at the ensemble plots above for Verbier, I think the difference in the amount of precipitation is due to way the 2 models handle the various ridge and trough systems that cross Northern Europe during the period. GFS seems to bring the trailing cold front nearer to the Alps with the threat of precipitation, whilst ECMWF maintains higher pressure over Central Europe keeping the trailing fronts a bit further north. Whatever happens, it looks like some unusually warm weather for the Alps next week, especially in the west. 850 hPa (5000 ft) temperatures look like being 5 to 10C above normal, and the FZ level above 3000m at times. There is some exceptionally warm air over Spain and this is forecast to spread into Central Europe in the coming days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
@Onelasttime1!, Great sunshine and piste skiing next week followed by bit of outdoor apres , no freezing beer
In my previous experience high pressure anchored across the western alps always takes an awful lot of shifting might be a very dry fortnight or so
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Picking up the last comment here about Spain, I live in Portugal and we're having a forecast of 11+ºc and <30% humidity on our only "resort" at 1900m. I am not at all versed in reading satellite data and weather prediction models so if someone could shed some light into why we're getting such abnormal temps in mid Jan I would really appreciate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| headauto wrote: |
| Picking up the last comment here about Spain, I live in Portugal and we're having a forecast of 11+ºc and <30% humidity on our only "resort" at 1900m. I am not at all versed in reading satellite data and weather prediction models so if someone could shed some light into why we're getting such abnormal temps in mid Jan I would really appreciate. |
The sea surface temperature anomaly off the Iberian peninsula shows that the ocean is 2 to 3C above normal. With the forecast showing the low level air mass coming from this region towards the peninsula, it is inevitable that your temperatures will be way above normal. I would not be surprised to see somewhere in the peninsula hitting the high twenties Celsius in the next few days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Wow, Going to Passo Tonale on Staurday for the week. Il Meteo has day temps of 2 to 4, 3b meteo has 6-12.Anyone help me out with what the ensembles say?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| jirac18 wrote: |
I’m politely asking that a thread stays on track so I and all the other non-selfish snowheads can come here for weather information without having to scroll down through pages of climate discussion.
But of course you can’t resist poking with an insincere apology because you think your opinion on climate change must be heard and you don’t care where and who hears it. You could have just as easily posted in the climate change crisis thread created for you yesterday, but have deliberately decided to post it here. Perhaps you like the attention and arguments it causes. I don’t. Many others don’t. |
The poke as you put it, was the mildest of pisstakes, as you have no entitlement to tell others what is and isn't covered by the loose titling of the thread. It's a forum for people interested in snowsports, not the Royal Meteorological Society. Any condescension in my message was perceived and not implied.
My post was about general weather conditions in the NW Alps relating to which direction the weather was coming from. It was in response to a post saying it was unnatural that it rains above 2000m during the season, implying that this was a direct product of global warming. My aside mention of global warning related to the same post.
For me, my post was at least as relevant here as others asking what the weather will be like on their holidays in 2 months' time, that the end of the world is nigh or others posting specific weather conditions about e.g. Zermatt, when there is a specific thread for there. I'm not bothered by this, I just tut and scroll down, as perhaps you should.
| twoodwar wrote: |
Condescension, terms as ffs, would result in a punch on the nose most places where I live if done face to face.
|
FFS was an expression of exasperation, nothing more. Just scroll down. I wonder why you chose to be offended by it. A "punch on the nose"? I feel like I'm being threatened by Jacob Rees Mogg. 
| twoodwar wrote: |
It’s pretty obvious as this is a snow sports site, that people are looking for forecasts as to conditions where and when they will be skiing or boarding. A discussion on where the overall climate is going is for another place now created.
Back on track, a big dip in temps for Zermatt ... |
See above on both your points.
Furthermore, by your logic there are only 2-3 people here who are qualified to profess about the weather and, unregretfully neither you or I are among them.
I doubt you'll agree and many others will consider this post unnecessarily argumentative (which I agree) and tell me, again to shut up. I will do this anyway, but only a Moderator has the right to tell me to shut up, naff off or punch me "on the nose"  . The rest of you can politely, jog on.
Happy holidays
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
@snoozeboy, took a long time!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| scotspikey wrote: |
| Wow, Going to Passo Tonale on Staurday for the week. Il Meteo has day temps of 2 to 4, 3b meteo has 6-12.Anyone help me out with what the ensembles say? |
have a look at this link: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=75479&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1
It shows the 850 hPa (5000ft) temperature nearby. Ignore the spiky stuff, that's just the main run showing the diurnal variation better than the lower resolution ensembles. It shows that it will be dry, sunny with daytime temperatures varying as above. North-facing slopes will be colder than south-facing and cooler at altitude. Fortunately the sun is not as strong as it will be later in the season, so the slopes may not suffer too badly.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@onelasttime1! cheers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
According to the outlook on Accuweather.com, the daytime temperature in Morzine (alt. 1000m) will not fall below freezing between now and 4th March 2024 Incredible for Jan/Feb.
They will hopefully be able to make snow overnight.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
@snoozeboy, I wasn’t Telling anyone to do anything. I was politely asking. I know you understand the difference. And no I don’t think only meteorologists should post here at all and again that’s not what I was saying, you know that.
Hope you got all that off your chest, albeit somewhat delayed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| mountainaddict wrote: |
According to the outlook on Accuweather.com, the daytime temperature in Morzine (alt. 1000m) will not fall below freezing between now and 4th March 2024 Incredible for Jan/Feb.
They will hopefully be able to make snow overnight. |
Some models suggesting double digit temps at 1800m next week in France (specifically 3Vs).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
