- Light snow likely crossing the northern Alps on Monday 12 December.
- A further band slightly stronger possible on Thursday 15 December.
- Potential for a stronger band on 17/18 December, but there is disagreement between ECM and GFS over how this will play.
I much prefer the ECM evolution for this (+192)
Still strong potential for some rather stormy weather across the UK next week on Tuesday and particularly Friday (across the south as well). Which will bring more snow to the Scottish mountains, but potentially some further damaging wind as well.
FI sees the pattern pretty much repeating. Though possibly (and I do mean possibly) delivering cold and snow across the Alps for Christmas.
Still strong potential for some rather stormy weather across the UK next week on Tuesday and particularly Friday (across the south as well). Which will bring more snow to the Scottish mountains, but potentially some further damaging wind as well.
Thanks for that, blimey another storm - quick recovery from the last though with Cairngorm, Glenshee and The Lecht open today and Glencoe planning to open tomorrow after repairs.
Worth noting this comment from the latest Glencoe e-mail:
Quote:
... we reckon we have more snow than at any point last season. Enough snow in fact that the skidoo driver couldn't get up the Poma uptrack without banging his head on the cable.
More to come eh ... and last year was a good season ... blimey!
Eat yer heart out Alps
Seriously though, good to see the snowy goodness being shared round and the Alps getting some too
Why did I feel so awkward and uncomfortable watching that video of James Brown?
Was it the jumpers, the miming, the dancing or the people with fake smiles clapping in unison.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
How do you pronounce nozawaonsen?
After all it is free
After all it is free
Sir, will do.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
mheadbee wrote:
Quote:
Not bad...
"I Got You (I Feel Good)" [James Brown]
Why did I feel so awkward and uncomfortable watching that video of James Brown?
Was it the jumpers, the miming, the dancing or the people with fake smiles clapping in unison.
Or the exclusively white audience watching James and the boys perform for them? Can't imagine a homogeneously caucasian audience on US telly now.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Definite thread drift occurring here, I guess it's down to the panic of a week ago disappearing along with the green grass.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
jbob, yeah but be kind to 'em, I was a bit similar when it started snowing in Scotland a few weeks back - excitable thread drift is to be expected in these circumstances but nozza will be back to ground everyone again
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
jzBun wrote:
How do you pronounce nozawaonsen?
Carefully
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Temperatures are currently by and large average or a little above average across the Alps.
However, a cold front pushes across the Alps bringing snow on Monday and colder temperatures behind it. Snowfall looks larger to the north and west of the Alps.
This looks like being repeated on Thursday and again over next weekend, beyond which a more sustained cold period is looking increasingly possible.
Snowfall for next weekend has at least for now been downgraded on GFS, ECM looks more determined.
Exactly how next weekend plays out is complicated by what looks like an intense low pressure system which will hit the UK on Friday (following a similar system on Tuesday). Both storm systems look pretty serious at this stage, Friday in particular. That said the exact track they take and the intensity with which they hit has still to be determined. And this will have a knock on effect on what reaches the Alps.
Suffice to say they would if they arrived as currently modeled (and Friday's could change quite a bit given the range) they would bring further snow to Scottish mountains, but also some damaging winds (and at times during the day these have looked more widespread across the UK).
So likelihood of more snow in the northern Alps on Monday and Thursday (looks in the 5-15cm range to me). Possibilities certainly remain next weekend, but it may take a couple more days to sort them out.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The 18z GFS operational sent the storm next Friday on a more southern track. Slamming it into the north of England and the midlands.
This did however shift everything further south and reintroduced snow into the Alps next weekend on Friday (16 December) and Saturday (17 December).
Plenty of shifts to come on the course and intensity of that storm I suspect...
With the current weather set up the northern Alps continue to be favoured. You can clearly see this on the 10 Day Precipitation Outlook for Europe (based on 12z GFS). The third panel in particular showing how the North Western end of Italy is facing a continuing deficit.
I'm not sure of what the official definitions are but can you explain what you mean by North/West etc Alps?
e.g. I would describe Austria as the Eastern Alps? But you never seem to use that description?
Thanks for keeping us all updated and apologies if you've explained this before.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
00z looks very snowy/rainy
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Rainy? We don't like rainy.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
robboj, HISTALP has a useful map, but I tend to think of the Eastern Alps as roughly east of a line between Lake Constance (Bodensee) and Lake Como (so further west than it appears on that map).
So far this season there have been three notable features.
- Before it really began (early November) there was heavy rain and snow at the western end of the Southern Alps.
- November was then very dry and mild across the Alps.
- Since early December the weather (including at times above average snowfall) has come from the north west which has favoured the northern side of the Alps and particularly the western end.
As the cold fronts come through over the next week they may start as rain at lower Altitude, but will quickly move to snow.
(that's based on last night's output, I'm still hunting for some tea and a bacon roll).
but at least it looks full of precipitation possibilities - time was, we'd have settled for that. The big snowfalls often seem to be preceded by rain, at the altitude we stay at (1550m) anyway - with the FL dropping, sometimes quite rapidly, as the front comes through. The temperature change when the big cold front rolled through our current bit of the south coast earlier this week was a full 3 degrees centigrade in about half an hour, with a very sharp veer in the wind (the graph output from the weather station at Chichester Bar looked like a textbook illustration).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
(that's based on last night's output, I'm still hunting for some tea and a bacon roll).
Noz I've got bacon left here. I'd swap for a top up in Tyrol(Soll)
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 11-12-11 12:07; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
with the storm currently forecast on friday 16th, what are the chances of flights being able to take off from luton?!
After all it is free
After all it is free
aldoyle, or Bristol...?
Somewhat ironic that after spending the last month wishing for a big snowy storm to come, I'm now keeping everything crossed that one doesn't!
Weather, Bah!
brian
brian Guest
aldoyle, a bit better than the chances from Manchester I think! On latest output anyway. The detail will move around a bit as it's 5 days out, but the strongest winds are currently for Ireland and the west coast of the UK from Cumbria southwards. Watching this a tad nervously as we're flying EDI to GVA on Friday lunchtime.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
brian,
What's your take on freezing levels this week
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Anyone got a view on a Hull crossing on Tuesday?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I'm also watching the UK weather for Friday ... got an early flight from Stansted to Munich! You watch, great conditions and I wont' be able to get there.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Whats the latest info regarding this storm due to hit on Friday. I was watching the BBC before and they seem to think it will hit Central Scotland again, not North West England as earlier predicted???
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Based on the current model output there is a likelihood that the UK will get hit by two storms in the coming week.
One on Tuesday, one Thursday into Friday.
At present the models have the one on Friday as looking particularly strong (violent winds causing widespread disruption and structural damage - if it happened like that) and threatening a fairly large part of the country.
However, plotting the exact path and intensity they will take is very tricky (not least because the second storm could well be defined by the first).
At this stage they could end up going further north or further south. Could end up weaker, or stronger (though hopefully not with Friday's storm).
Especially at five days out expect quite a bit of shifting back and forth (which incidentally will alter the amount of snowfall in the Alps next weekend).
Thursday's warning is notable for the wide range of the country it covers (a result of uncertainty and the strength it is currently modeled to arrive with).
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
WHEN do you gurus of the snow think we will see some snow in Southern Piemonte?
PLEEEEEEASE say there is a chance before Christmas!!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
adam.b, there is a chance before Christmas
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
adam.b, there is a chance before Christmas
Oh, I do hope so...I would love to not have to drive for hours to ski!!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
12z GFS is a good forecast for snow over the next seven days over much of the Alps. Less good in terms of potential for violent gales in the UK next week...
Beyond this 12z GFS operational suggested further snow primarily in the Northern Alps, though pushing south occasionally on Wednesday evening, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and next Monday.
In FI it suggests a period of deeper cold beyond the weekend. Much will depend on the tracks of the low pressure systems currently predicted to be racing towards the UK.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
18Z GFS does two good things.
- It pulls the storm next Friday further south and takes a little of the strength out of it.
- And as a result brings more snow to the Alps next weekend.
Here's the jet piling into the Alps next Saturday.
- "By [Monday] evening on the northern flank of the Alps and in the Lower Valais, 10 to 20 cm of snowfall is anticipated, elsewhere up to 10 cm of new fallen snow widespread. The snowfall level will descend from 1400 m down to about 800 m."
- "On Wednesday, snowfall is anticipated in western and northern regions in particular. The strong velocity westerly wind will continue to blow."
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, I like that prediction a lot! Nice mix of warm and cold on a day I don't have to travel far for work and will not have to dig the car out too often!
After all it is free
After all it is free
Wiggles have gone mad and according to rain radar. Meteox snow is almost here
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
The track of Friday's storm has now shifted even further south.
- It's slightly weaker, but for the UK still has the potential to cause substantial problems. (Met Office severe weather warning)
- It now arrives in the Alps much stronger (look at the Meteogram for Les Deux Alpes, if that verified that would be well over a metre of snow falling next weekend, I would be a little surprised if it was quite as strong as the operational has it this morning)
- The snow line though looks like it could be between 1600m and 1800m+ before dropping substantially.
- Being driven from the west the western end of the Alps, including the Italian side, would see most snow (and rain lower down).
- That amount of snow (and rain lower down) would be very disruptive and could shut things down for a day or two.
Plenty to watch then, but plenty that could (and almost certainly will) continue to change as the predicted storm path shifts in the coming days.
Looking at those ensembles the eastern Italian side looks like it would miss much of the snow (as would the Pyrenees). And perhaps with a more southerly track the Scottish mountains would possibly see less than early runs suggested they might (though still not bad in the west). The main beneficiaries would lie in an arc, stronger to the west, from the French alps to the Arlberg, which was also where the majority of last weeks snow fell.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Mon 12-12-11 22:47; edited 2 times in total
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
