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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

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brian, the mighty one plank might rule wink
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 brian
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norris, you don't mean (gasp) ... a tray? Shocked wink
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brian, tray = crusty fun. NehNeh
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Smile more excited

The might one plank does rule
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 brian
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norris, whisper it, but back in the dog days of skinny skis, I did do a little tray sampling in the mank. No need now though. Little Angel
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brian, Cool

If it doesn't snow and that cold prevails from the 21st then I might have to dig my ski boots out of the bottom of the ski locker in Flaine...I have been know to dabble, but its a slippery slope I really dont like to take to often .
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Off to Les Menuires on Sunday. Can't wait. Snow of earlier in the week has eased the drought somewhat and as you say it is still only January so despite the slightly higher than average temps the snow should be fine. At the end of the day skiing in the Alps or sitting in an office.......... umm not an overly tricky one that !! Very Happy
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I trust you are talking proper trays, and not those modern sideways things.....


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 brian
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kitenski, no, it was the full on comfy boot experience. Embarassed
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12z GFS FI looks rather interesting. For the UK too.
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nozawaonsen, if that comes off its a monoboard on each foot !
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That would be a significant amount of snow across much of the UK and the Alps during the last week of January... It will be interesting to see where
the operational sits in the ensembles...
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Quote:

it is still only January so despite the slightly higher than average temps the snow should be fine.

Hmm. I wouldn't rely on that; depends on aspect but there's some authentic spring conditions around, that's for sure.

Quote:

That would be a significant amount of snow across the UK and the Alps during the last week of January...

snowHead snowHead snowHead
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
if snow hits anywhere. can it hit the uk and tignes from 23rd -30th so they close all the airports again and im stuck in france!!!
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benpudney, 12z GFS looks like it could do a fairly good impression of shutting down UK transport for Saturday 29 January (but it is just one run, way out off in FI and you'd want to see it getting a lot more support before taking it seriously!) wink
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 Poster: A snowHead
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im hanging on yor everyword until i jet off next sunday. the week at work will be spent here. if i understood the charts i would look myself. but your all doing a grand job
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nozawaonsen, Scottish outlook please?
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Ricklovesthepowder, in the latest 12z GFS it looks like there is some more rather wet and mild weather to come through before colder and drier weather comes during next week.

As I mentioned above the latest GFS takes weather in the UK colder and snowier from about 25 January bringing in a series of low pressure systems from the north, which would clearly be good for the Scottish resorts.

At present I would say this is interesting and worth watching, but needs more support over a series of runs before you could have much confidence in it. But a good FI for sure.
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nozawaonsen, cheers. keep us updated please. Thanks.
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No major change to the short term pattern in the Alps on the basis of 12z GFS (but FI is interesting...)

Temperatures over the next few days will generally be (very) warm and spring like, the skies will clear, clouds will become rarer the sun stronger. Quite cool first thing Saturday morning though.

By Wednesday things have started to change though and by next Friday temperatures look like being significantly colder (-12C at 1500m in the east and -10c in the west). And this evening the operational run keeps them pretty steadily at this sort of temperature (maybe a couple of degrees warmer at times) for the rest of the run. This would give a snow line at around sea level from a week today. Which could be important later in the run...

Back to Wednesday and Thursday there is a slight disturbance which could bring a small band of snow through to the eastern Alps overnight. It doesn't look much more than marginal at present and would be focussed around Switzerland, Austria and perhaps slightly more so round parts of Italy such as the Dolomites. It will probably bring a break in next week's sunny weather across the Alps.



It starts getting more interesting from about 23 January and more so from 25 January as a series of low pressure systems push in from the north. Here is one of the low pressure systems coming through past the UK on 24 January on its way into continental Europe.



This looks to me like it could bring snow across the UK and indeed across Europe.

Of course a lot of this is in FI and could well change. The track of the low pressure systems coming through from next weekend has shifted around a bit from north east to north in this run (and could easily shift again). It is though another run which produces cold and snow for the Alps in the last week of January. And the operational (although below the mean) is by no means the coldest run. It will be interesting to see what ECM produces... wink
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ECM 12z produces the cold in the last week of January (though not in quite the same way as GFS). And that run looks it would bring winter and snow right back to the UK. Will be interesting to see if it verifies... wink

Here is ECM at +240 (to compare with GFS above).



And for a bit of variety BOM at +240 too.



So various options, but sharing a really rather cold theme with weather from the north and east... (rather than from the Atlantic..)
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18z tightens up a few things for next week.

First off there could be a light sprinkling of snow first thing tomorrow morning in the eastern Alps (particularly western Austria) and across the Alps tomorrow looks like it will actually be quite chilly first thing, though it will warm up quickly. Sunshine is likely to increase over the next few days with several cloudless days possible.

Around 19 and 20 January there will be a little more cloud about, there could be a little snow in the eastern Alps, but not much.

Temperatures will fall from this weekend and this evening there seems to be increasing support for them to be about -5c at about 1500m by next Saturday in the west and -10c in the east. The first half of the week will be a little cooler in the east too.

All in all it looks like a pleasant week. Lots of sunshine generally cooling down from this weekend's very warm temperatures. Should be some great views of the mountains with all the clear weather and sunshine. A good week to have a serious lunch or late afternoon pause outside in the sun and celebrate being in the mountains with a cold glass or two. Lower south facing slopes will not be great, snow cover in general will be reduced and off piste will need some freshening (and should benefit from the cooling and consolidating at the end of the week?). But I imagine the piste bashing teams will do a great job of keeping the pistes in good shape and that should be easier as the temperatures cool.

The temperatures stay cool throughout most of the run (and you can see from the ensembles how support for the cold is really starting to consolidate as the different runs are increasingly clustering around the colder options). There is a gradual increase in temperatures towards seasonal average at the end of the run. A slightly less snowy run in FI than some over the last few days and earlier this evening, though it comes in at the end. There is still inevitably considerable uncertainty from at least next weekend (although cold rather than cool is looking strong). It will be interesting to see if a clearer pattern develops over this weekend. There is clearly the potential for things to turn really quite cold and snowy in the last week of January, but absolutely no certainty. Yet... wink
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Almost forgot. Apparently snow subsided a little in Japan yesterday (only 5 to 15 cm in places). Snowing heavily again this morning, especially across Japanese Alps. Cracking little fire festival going on this evening...
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Potentially interesting low pressure system developing in the Adriatic (in fact it actually develops nearer Genoa) in some of this mornings runs... Round next Friday...

These have the potential to get stuck down there, feeding moist air from the Adriatic up to the cold air in the Alps. And... snow. Potentially good across the Alps, possibly very good across the eastern Alps...

Cold pattern from midweek continuing...

More after breakfast... wink
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nozawaonsen, just packing for my trip to Arabba tomorrow... I guess I need my sunnies for the first half of the week Cool...then goggles and a face mask for the end of the week ?!? Shocked

Thanks for the continuing commentary on the forecasts, it's been really helpful!! snowHead
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luigi, could well be!

Options for snow in the south of England start cropping from a week on Tuesday in latest GFS by the way...

Toast has popped...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Potentially interesting low pressure system developing in the Adriatic (in fact it actually develops nearer Genoa) in some of this mornings runs... Round next Friday...

These have the potential to get stuck down there, feeding moist air from the Adriatic up to the cold air in the Alps. And... snow. Potentially good across the Alps, possibly very good across the eastern Alps...


yes please, send it on Smile

Still too far away though, hope it develops....
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kitenski, looks more like it would hit Switzerland round Thursday...

Coffee...
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nozawaonsen wrote:
kitenski, looks more like it would hit Switzerland round Thursday...

Coffee...


Perfect, I arrive Wednesday afternoon, bring it on Smile
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Several more interesting runs for later in the week, and possibly next, this morning.

Spring conditions continue over the weekend.

By midweek the temperatures should be back to seasonal average and overnight on Wednesday they start to fall (ever so slightly later than it looked a few days ago). A little bit more spread in 06z GFS on where they will by the end of Thursday. But it looks like -5c to -10c at 1500m. And staying there for the next five to six days at least...

On the last couple of runs low pressure starts to develop around Genoa on Thursday, bringing some snow to the Alps. As it tracks across to the Adriatic it brings snow across to the Eastern Alps on Friday and into Saturday. There is potential for this type of feature to get stuck in a pattern and draw up quite a lot of snow into the Alps. So certainly worth watching... wink

Here it is on Friday (+150) on GFS 06z.



Here are temperatures next Tuesday (+240) on ECM 00z.



How things will develop from next weekend is unclear. Cold looks increasingly likely to feature. How cold, how long it would last and how much snow might come with it is unclear and the models are throwing up various scenarios at present. Incidentally a number of these scenarios also suggest increasing potential for much colder temperatures across the UK and snow...

Here are GFS ensembles for Chamonix.



And the Arlberg.

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kitenski, did that set up/outfit come complete with a double pole plant wink
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GFS 12z again develops low pressure on Thursday down south of the Alps near Genoa. Bringing snow across the Alps on Thursday and Friday. This is worth watching. It does something similar a couple of days later. This type of pattern tends can produce very favourbale conditions for snow in the Alps particularly in Italy and Austria... We'll see... wink

FI throws various ideas around for the week after next. No particular idea really dominating. Eastern influence is lessened in this run, which in deep FI brings high pressure and milder weather from the south [edit: worth saying that the operational run is a mild outlier at this stage with almost everyone run colder, most of the significantly so], then low pressure and cold from the north. It will be interesting to see if one pattern starts to develop support in the next few days...
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so back from Morzine last week,and struck a deal with the wife in driving rain on the last day that this would not be the last ski day of the season,i was persuaded (alice /simon grat area shame re snow and oli) to go some where different to Valdisere, didnt quite work,first few days ok but then rain and avoiding mud(mainly swiss side,in fact how they can keep some of those runs open is very unfair i mean i can ski a bit but mud will cause a real problem and did for alot of people)Anyway booked for Valdisere for HALF TERM WEEK i know v busy ,but i brought snow chains at xmas for my new car as i was concerned (spat myself after my new cars performance in one cm of snow in england,it,s one of those so called 4x4,s nnnnnnnot , and guess what HEATWAVE IN MORZINE , infact same happened with my first purchase of a convertable wettest summer for years, anyway fingers crossed for one foot of snow to fall at 535pm sat 19th just after i arrive in VAL REASON BEING I STILL HAVENT OPENED THE CHAINS,even after my business partner broke off his xmas prep to rush to buy them,anyway apologise for ramble and spelling,but its differculft to cocentrate after a tough week at work and a large glass or two of vino,and watching arsenal give avram grant a sad sendoff. enjoy
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phillip33 wrote:
large glass or two of vino


or three Wink

Thanks for the live news, it doesn't sounds great! Sad
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phillip33, best make sure you can get those chains on quickly, just in case that huge dump of snow arrives just BEFORE you arrive in Val d'Isere. Might need to break them out of the packet.

nozawaonsen, nice to keep some hope of snow alive. Loving the sunshine, though. snowHead
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ECM 12z is another good run for cold from mid week, and cold into next weekend and beyond. As with GFS it produces a low pressure system south of the Alps on Thursday. Whether this amounts to much we'll have to wait and see, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on...

By Sunday 23 January it has really quite cold temperatures coming in and a large low pressure system forcing its way down from the North (potentially making things cold and even snowy in parts of the UK).



This goes on to bring cold and snow down to the Alps and the run finishes on 25 January with more low pressure to the south of the Alps threatening more snow.

Not bad...

What is different is that this is a completely different evolution from ECM 12z last night and GFS today...

What is the same is that whatever evolution the models throw up at present seems to lead to cold... Shocked (possibly wink)
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snowHead snowHead snowHead
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All good news then really, just need to pass this mini weekend heat wave !!


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Sat 15-01-11 21:33; edited 1 time in total
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Maybe worth noting that GFS 12z last night and BOM last night both pulled in big low pressure from the North on Monday 24 January, much like ECM does tonight on Sunday 23 January. Worth watching for maybe in amongst the slightly chaotic patterns at present...
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nozawaonsen, Im very impressed with your forecasting and understanding of these charts, obviously know what you are talking about What are your thoughts of snow for la plagne, im off there sat 22 to 29th? Thank you. Cool snowHead
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