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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Astontech, An example...

https://www.bergfex.com/vorarlberg/wetter/stationen/warth/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Astontech, another one.

https://www.spotair.mobi/


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Wed 17-01-24 20:32; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Astontech, Its 3 degs in Tignes Le Lac 2100m and light rain.
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Thanks! Seems to be showing 1c in Avoriaz, maybe turns to snow soon.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Forecast here:

https://www.facebook.com/meteoalpes/posts/pfbid02yBuCeVwnjh7SZjMTZ1vAvg9dLyuEsCBAq6CaynUkdXkWKWxUnGqDp84fRc2fVdbZl?__cft__%5B0%5D=AZVCROVbYnjjU2f24afJj6vmipX0Qyd-Lv7N-9g-c1r4xvht-MlB2d85qS6dJTrjuWu-EjDb88_fRrnEALQ0FhS8HhKKsn6ZWKodiwc6lmA2R8YCQn0OWAB2BAiUKdqyPC8rFAA9IbEwtEV7kWlufqP3nC4qSgvhRJn__0udipMj0V5QcIw0hIrMh1rZOsK2pIA&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
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Forecasts seem pretty much spot on +/- a few degrees here or there.

I really can't get my head around why anyone would think that regular precipitation at elevations above 2,000m falling as rain in mid winter is natural.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

I really can't get my head around why anyone would think that regular precipitation at elevations above 2,000m falling as rain in mid winter is natural.

What do you mean by "natural"? It's happened before, and is happening more frequently than was the case in the past. That's climate change for you.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
LPN levels are much lower in Italy on the other side of the Alpine Ridge lots of new snow at 1400m in La Thuile judging by the cams that level is still higher than 1800m a few km away in the Haute Tarentaise .
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Southerly Fohn perhaps ?
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@Peter S, Yep it is some form of Foehn effect happens quite often .
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
It's been snowing steadily in my part of NI. Skis waxed....now all I need is a ski lift! Skullie
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
pam w wrote:
Quote:

I really can't get my head around why anyone would think that regular precipitation at elevations above 2,000m falling as rain in mid winter is natural.

What do you mean by "natural"? It's happened before, and is happening more frequently than was the case in the past. That's climate change for you.


When humid air comes from the southwest, it rains in the nw Alps up to 2,000m and higher.

I'm no climate change denier, but it's been doing this since the last ice age.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@snoozeboy, Yup - maybe not the last ice age, but I was rained on in Les Deux Alpes in the late 1980s at around 2000m+

Climate change could well mean it gets more frequent, but it's happened for ages on occasion
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
buchanan101 wrote:
Climate change could well mean it gets more frequent, but it's happened for ages on occasion

But that afaik is the exact effect of climate change - more frequent and accentuated events.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
the negativity on here is rather depressing - I went to Andalo in 1981 - it rained lots , I went to Soll the next year, it rained there as well, then a week is zero visibilty due to low cloud ....I have been nearly every year since to either France, Austria, Italy and Switzerland ( not US/Canada though), and the variations/intracies of alps weather systems are just completely unpredictable, it's an extreme place, which is massively changable from blizzards to warm foehns . Lets not depress ourselves with constant reminders of the worlds end
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Layne wrote:
buchanan101 wrote:
Climate change could well mean it gets more frequent, but it's happened for ages on occasion

But that afaik is the exact effect of climate change - more frequent and accentuated events.


My point is that an occurrence of rain at 2000m is not in itself proof of climate change as someone was suggesting. If it happens more often, then that could well be because of climate change

Of course climate change could “switch off” the Gulf Stream which means the U.K. and Europe could end up colder …
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Is that likely?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
oscarkat wrote:
the negativity on here is rather depressing - I went to Andalo in 1981 - it rained lots , I went to Soll the next year, it rained there as well, then a week is zero visibilty due to low cloud ....I have been nearly every year since to either France, Austria, Italy and Switzerland ( not US/Canada though), and the variations/intracies of alps weather systems are just completely unpredictable, it's an extreme place, which is massively changable from blizzards to warm foehns . Lets not depress ourselves with constant reminders of the worlds end


+1 well said thank you


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 18-01-24 14:00; edited 1 time in total
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@lightningdan, Happening already - or at least the stability of it is being affected. I think it's to do with Greenland ice melting...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@jirac18, on the other hand if we ignore everything it'll all be OK... "Don't Look Up"...

There's realism and there's negativity. Not necessarily the same all the time
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@buchanan101, I’m not stupid and I realise that but this is a ski forum and I come to this thread to be enlightened as to what the weather and conditions are relative to skiing and the areas I’m likely to visit in order to do. There are a multitude of other sources I can go to if I want to be consumed in the fine details of the climate change debate.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Feel free to start a new topic called Climate Change Crisis. Everyone will know exactly the content of the thread and the rabbit hole they are jumping down when they click on it. Those who don’t wish to subject themselves to the debate can just scroll on by and come here for updates on the current and immediate weather forecast which is relevant to their ski holiday.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@jirac18, I do apolgise for mentioning something that you find a little bit depressing
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@buchanan101, don’t be sarcastic and antagonistic. I’m making a perfectly valid point in polite fashion. Let’s get back to the weather forecast eh?
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

I really can't get my head around why anyone would think that regular precipitation at elevations above 2,000m falling as rain in mid winter is natural.

What do you mean by "natural"? It's happened before, and is happening more frequently than was the case in the past. That's climate change for you.


Happened (mostly?) (or) every season since at least 1989 (my first) ... seems remarkably natural and remarkably unremarkable to me rolling eyes
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@under a new name, I agree it happens mostly every season but not every other week. Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@jirac18, I agree with you let’s keep this to forecasting and let there be another thread regarding climate change.
snow conditions
 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ICON model is much more positive for next week's weather then the ECM. GFS seems to take the middle ground
snow conditions
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@red 27, ICON what they saying ?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
They have the high to the south keeping the atlantic systems further north.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=icon&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=123&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Sorry - hideous link! It's a good site for comparing the models
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec

Better link - this is where you choose your model and the click 'loop'
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@jirac18, @Alpinebear, Thread started
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@red 27, thanks
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Snowing heavily in Zermatt!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Is there a website/app which gives a model comparison view like the Meteoblue MultiModel, but that goes out to ten days instead of just seven?
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hold_my_biere wrote:
Is there a website/app which gives a model comparison view like the Meteoblue MultiModel, but that goes out to ten days instead of just seven?


different models only give upto a certain amount of data. Plus anything over a couple of days is more possibility prediction than probability.
So not worth the time, expense or reputation in getting it wrong.

You could try WXCHARTS - they have a wealth of charts, models, infographs, etc.
Play around hard enough & maybe one of the dozens of possibilities will give you snow dump you craving to find.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@hold_my_biere, kind of looks like most models don't go out any further?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
under a new name wrote:
@hold_my_biere, kind of looks like most models don't go out any further?


Yes, it looks like most don’t, but at least ECMWF and GFS do, and probably some others.
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We've already had about 30 cm today in Val Thorens and it's still dumping snow now!

Not a bad forecast, either..

Saturday could be epic! Very Happy

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As predicted, this week was a sun-rain-snow cycle.

Zero iso looks set to zoom back up to 2500-3000m in Western Europe next week.
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