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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Gored wrote:
Next week looking good.

number cube roller


Nah - I want sun! There's enough snow for now...

Sunday looks like being a Bluebird day in Ellmau, but then a fair snow Monday afternoon through to Tuesday. This kind of works for me - at least gives me a day to get the ski legs back.

The various fancy front ends (Bergfex, Wepowder, Snow Forecast etc) seem to be starting to agree on this mid term forecast now.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@buchanan101, you want fresh snow to try out skis in lumpy new snow I thought Smile
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
kitenski wrote:
@buchanan101, you want fresh snow to try out skis in lumpy new snow I thought Smile


That is true - so it may work out perfectly... !

At least I might get a Bluebird day - but it's a Sunday so half of Munich will probably be there; I'm only there 3.5 days
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Gored wrote:
Next week looking good.

number cube roller


Is that WePowder?
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@dorhar,
no
Meteoblue
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Thanks!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Snowfall at end of month continuing to favour eastern end of Alps.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
*rubs hands*
50cm for Saalbach snowHead snowHead snowHead
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too much snow - the long walk to the piste basher garage

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davidof wrote:
too much snow - the long walk to the piste basher garage



Where is this?
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Ceillac
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Some very big snowfall numbers cropping up for Eastern Austria next week. https://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

GFS for Schladming - looks promising for precip up, though some wild variations beyond 4th feb.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2441&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
more SSW excitement https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-stratospheric-warming-event-polar-vortex-january-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Im getting worried! The colder the better for me, not just for snow quality but also I really like those bitterly cold mornings in the mountain. But, it seems every time I have a trip planned it starts getting warmer. We are due in Monterosa on the 10th, and forecast seems to be showing significant warming in the week before. I get the inaccuracy of snow forecast dot com, and the inherent inaccuracy on long term forecasts. BUT, can't help obsessing like most here. Any weather guru have a view?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@zikomo, 14 days away, nobody is going to be able to give you anything more than an educated guess as to the weather then. It will be what it will be, nothing you or anybody else can do to change it!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@kitenski, I know that. I am a very rational person. Normally. Except 2 weeks away from a ski holiday. Can't help it!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
munich_irish wrote:
more SSW excitement https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-stratospheric-warming-event-polar-vortex-january-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/


I think the latest models are less in favour of SSW and more in favour of a displacement event some time in early February. I don't like the binary of SSW or no SSW, either way it looks like there's currently a good probability of cold air travelling south across Europe. Hard to predict how far it'll travel and if it'll reach the Alps Madeye-Smiley
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, would Zermatt get some snow out of that?
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Latest GFS model run looks like it will be going VERY warm in the alps from the 4th February Sad Sad
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@Chris Brookes, not sure you are reading the chart correctly. 12Z run gets no more than a couple of degrees above average for the Alps as a whole and the 18Z looks a bit cooler (though hasn't finished rolling out yet). Edit: 6Z and 12Z, not 12Z and 18Z!

Bear in mind that current temperatures are unusually cool and we can't have below average temperatures all the time Smile


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 27-01-23 18:42; edited 1 time in total
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denfinella wrote:
@Chris Brookes, not sure you are reading the chart correctly. 12Z run gets no more than a couple of degrees above average for the Alps as a whole and the 18Z looks a bit cooler (though hasn't finished rolling out yet).

Bear in mind that current temperatures are unusually cool and we can't have below average temperatures all the time Smile


ok, that sounds good news to me...i need to read the charts better me thinks
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10 day anomaly chart (based on GFS op run). Showing continuing below average temperatures for the Alps and Pyrenees.



Eastern end of the Alps (fundamentally Austria) look like reciting substantial snowfall, West end much drier.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, your charts don't seem to be working this time.

Light snow in Tirol right now, despite there being nothing in the schedule. The snow forecast can indeed go either way.
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@Scarlet, what are the stations now like round innsbruck? have they filled out much with the recent snowfall
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@Scarlet, not working as in you can’t see them? They‘re showing up fine for me.

Here‘s the links.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4
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@nozawaonsen, Thanks. Yeah, it's just showing the little broken picture icon.

@Mother hucker, Piste skiing is fine, probably everywhere. I've just been to Patscherkofel and that was all fine, thought they still have a couple of runs closed. Not sure why. Off-piste is variable and you need to pick your location and your runs carefully. Some places still too little cover.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A lot of snow incoming this week for parts of the Eastern Alps, Austria in particular.

This is how WRF sees the next 72 hours in high resolution.



Clearly this only takes you out to 72 hours, which is very early Thursdsay. So this is more of an overture at this stage.

Showtime if it happens, is from then on, Thursday into Friday (if it does arrive as some of the heavier forecasts suggests anticipate quite a lot of lift closures in places like the Arlberg).
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looks like it’s moved a bit further East on last nights run Eh oh! come on Ischgl !! Arriving 10th of Feb .. would love this storm to dump a decent amount and fill in things some more
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Nothing for Zermatt Sad however latest GFS, shows after a warm weekend temperatures dropping next week to preserve snow. Grateful for that.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
all the latest runs have really lowered the estimates for around Innsbruck and West this week Sad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Where is the best place to look at the forecast for Piedmont (Prato Nevoso)? Snow Forecast has 30+ cm for Monday and -12oC towards the end of the week but I know they are always a 'bit' optimistic.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

I know they are always a 'bit' optimistic

You make that sound like a marketing ploy. They are often more than a "bit" wrong, because they give "a figure" rather than a range, and with no indicator of confidence. And because for a few bob you can get "a figure" for many more days ahead than really makes sense. "20cms in resort X the day before I arrive in 10 days time".
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@garfy1971, snow forecast use GFS as I understand it. For a similar idea and probably more accurate use the met office app. They are one of the worlds leading forecasters. As Pam says exact cm figures are a bit daft, but indicative of confidence of snow as such perhaps!
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Complete change on this mornings run, just an outlier or will it be supported on the next run.
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Smokin Joe wrote:
Complete change on this mornings run, just an outlier or will it be supported on the next run.


Good change or bad change? (I have a feeling I know the answer) …
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Bergfax gone nuts for Thursday for Schladming snowfall (take cms with pinch of salt). Time to look for a cheap flight.

https://www.bergfex.at/schladming-planai/wetter/berg/

GFS has pulled the snowfall further eastwards
https://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

GFS charts for Schladming looking pretty decent over next week.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2441&model=gem&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

and the local avi report - will no doubt be heading upwards later this week
http://www.lawine-steiermark.at/lagebericht/avalanche-bulletin
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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And wepowder's view for coming nordstau https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/287407?fbclid=IwAR2JtmzBSij82kvRhwJnuV1NQ7nd_nWt75ozifEgcUG3lAhVUmxWS0XG5QA
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@waynos, chose the wrong weekend ? wink
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Quote:

snow forecast use GFS as I understand it

yes, and when I started reading these threads I learnt a bit about the different models and their shortcomings and just looked at GFS itself, rather than snow-forecast. Far more informative (particularly for getting a feeling for how much confidence you can have) and even as a rank "beginner" you can learn a lot by looking at it regularly.
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Still a long way away from our trip to Monterosa (we fly next Friday). But glad to see long term forecasts seem to be a very warm weekend followed by very cold weather next week. No snow to talk about so might be more effort to find decent off-piste. But fingers crossed it at least stays cold!
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