 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
harrymac, I'd be very surprised if the piste skiing at Les Contamines (at least above Signal, which is where all the best skiing is anyway) is not just as good as the stuff I've been skiing the past few days - I'm very close to Les Contamines. Frankly, even if there's little or no fresh snow, you'll be absolutely fine if your group are piste skiers. If they are off piste skiers they'll know that mid January is too early to be even moderately confident of good snow cover. And depths are still above average despite the warm weather of the past few days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Ricklovesthepowder, no need to shy away from it. Like I said it's good at what it does. But in making a simpler to use forecast it does forego some of the complexity. Just be aware of it's limitations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| pam w wrote: |
| harrymac, I'd be very surprised if the piste skiing at Les Contamines (at least above Signal, which is where all the best skiing is anyway) is not just as good as the stuff I've been skiing the past few days - I'm very close to Les Contamines. Frankly, even if there's little or no fresh snow, you'll be absolutely fine if your group are piste skiers. If they are off piste skiers they'll know that mid January is too early to be even moderately confident of good snow cover. And depths are still above average despite the warm weather of the past few days. |
This. Les Contamines is a great little ski area. I've been there at the end of March/early April when the south-facing slopes down to Megeve on the other side of Mont Joly were mostly green and brown. Above the top Signal lift station the piste was still in great condition - it's all about aspect and altitude and being right next to a rather large mountain, you might have heard of it.
Relax, enjoy, you'll have a brilliant time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
nozawaonsen, Where does the Alps precipitation stem from..? I know the majority of the UK weather systems arrive from the atlantic, What about the Alps...? Med, Russia or scandinavia? Often wondered? Thx
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ricklovesthepowder, i find snowforecast is quite good at showing whether it is likely to snow not at all, a bit or a lot. actual amounts is is a bit of a waste of time because if there is any wind, a 10cm fall can seem like 0cm in wind scoured areas, and 30cm+ in sheltered spots
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All the focus seems to be on this weekend, any sign of any further snowfall looking into next week? Hope the numbers on snow-forecast.com , predicting only 5cm for V d'Isere !
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
tignes website shows heavy snow for friday
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Le grand bornand predicted nearly 30cm woohoo!
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Is this snow fall likely to hang around for a week or more. I guess same question as SkiG.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Quick question. On the Wetterzentrale wiggles, what's the difference between the main run (Hauptlauf) and control run (Kontrolllauf)? Thanks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
levster777, when you say "hang around" do you mean "is it all going to melt?"? Then the answer is no, of course it's not. There's plenty of snow there now that fel before Christmas - and it's going to get colder. The issue is will there be some lovely fresh stuff off the pistes - and that is a harder question...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
About 20cm! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| harrymac wrote: |
| nozawaonsen, Where does the Alps precipitation stem from..? I know the majority of the UK weather systems arrive from the atlantic, What about the Alps...? Med, Russia or scandinavia? Often wondered? Thx |
Snow over the Alps will usually be associated with moisture originating from the Atlantic or the Mediteranean. The weather systems bringing the snow can come from any direction. For example a weather system originating from the East can bring with it colder air which can then mix with milder and moist air from the Atlantic or med to produce snow.
Overall I would say that most snowfall in the Alps comes from weather systems from the Atlantic and would approach the Alps from the West/North West/South West.
A direct Northerly approach seems to be quite rare. And a southerly approach is rarer still. Thus this is why France, Switzerland and Western Austria tend to get the biggest snowfalls.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
| pjd wrote: |
| Quick question. On the Wetterzentrale wiggles, what's the difference between the main run (Hauptlauf) and control run (Kontrolllauf)? Thanks. |
I think the control run is a parallel run to the main run and is fed with different starting criteria on the model algorithms. A few days ahead the two would normally be similar but then they tend to diverge into different outcomes along with the other member runs. Once this happens it is very difficult to predict what the outcome will be from that day on. That's my take on it anyway.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Hi,andy from embsay. Thanks for replying. I meant are these snow showers meant to continue for a week or will they only last a day or two. Predicting beyond Sunday is no doubt extremely difficult but in general do the weather patterns tend to stay around.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
jimmybog, thanks - very helpful
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
levster777, this:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
Is the ensembles for Morzine/Avoriaz(ish) and the precipitation line at the bottom stays bumpy (without any massive spikes) for quite a few days - so I think (and I await Nozza's correction) it looks like we might get quite a few days where theres some snow, but nothing terribly dumpy (but this is pretty different to yesterday's, so who knows?).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
can anyone link the closest ensembles to La Plagne/Les arcs? Would that be the one above?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
xander89, the weatherzentrale link above is for 7,46 long and lat. The long and lat for la plagne is 6.7 and 45.5 so rounding up or down to whole numbers will give you either 745 or 746 which you put in the link instead of 746. So in answer to your question the answer is......... maybe 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
ECM currently mid run and producing some pretty snowy charts for the UK early next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen, typical, just as in fly out!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
nozawaonsen, how is it shaping up for Le Grand Bornand???
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
And for the Alps too.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen, is that a low over the Dolomites? Snowy times for the dollies next week?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Ooh ooh, out in 10 days time, wugglies are starting to look good!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Wugglies!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
brrrrrrrr......
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Been watching Bergfex and snow forecast.com for next weeks weather in Ischgl.
Bergfex is forecasting 19cm for Friday whereas snow forecast is saying only 2cm !!
Which one is more accurate, does Bergfex have local knowledge ? I'm hoping it does
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
2planks, first off it is simply not possible to predict snowfall to the cm. Can't be done. Over a wide area there will in any case be considerable variation. Over a small area it's impossible to be that precise. So simply ignore that element other than as a very rough guide.
Secondly the much vaunted "local knowledge." almost all output is based on a small number of super computers. Many websites you'll see all over the place are in fact simply using data from one of these computers and it's probably GFS because that's free.
""Is the GFS model really worse than the ECMWF?" OK, I went there. Forecasters amateur and professional have long-claimed the U.S. GFS model was more inaccurate than the ECWMF. The graph above proves it, and it is the basis for the business model of the ECWMF's institution, which sells the data at exorbitant prices (the GFS data is free -- a quarter of a million dollars will buy you the rights to use redistribute the ECMWF 25-day forecast, but not their weekly or monthly forecasts which go as far as a year out). Although that makes for a compelling reason to keep their secrets to themselves, they have recently started working with the U.S. government to help determine what's wrong with the GFS."
(from The Secrets of Weather Forecast Models, Exposed http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097)
Bergfex I believe uses data supplied by ZAMG. Given that this is the Austrian national weather service I suspect this is based on ECM (but am not sure). If it was that would be local as in er Reading. Because that is where the ECMWF super computer is based.
So maybe at least Bergfex is using EU data. But hang about it produces forecasts for 100s of resorts over a large area? So that's not very local.
So in general be very suspicious of so anyone claiming to have local knowledge (especially if it is some local in the bar who is just regurgitating what he or she has also seen on a GFS based forecast, but doing it in a local accent).
What is definitely likely to be a good local forecast is the local forecast which is included on avalanche forecasts such as:
http://lawine.tirol.gv.at/en/
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN
And here's what SLF is saying for the end of the week for the Swiss Alps.
"Thursday
In the north, cloud will already build up in the morning. The afternoon will be partly cloudy in the south. Everywhere else will be very cloudy, and a little snow will fall on the northern flank of the Alps. The snowfall level will drop to 1000 m. The avalanche danger will not change significantly.
Friday
The weather will be very cloudy and snow will fall over a wide area, even at low altitudes. The heaviest snowfall will occur on the northern flank of the Alps, and the lightest in the south. The danger of dry avalanches will increase in the north in particular."
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
nozawaonsen, thanks for your great posts which I have been reading for a while. Another fortune telling request: I'm planning a trip to Tignes either this weekend (Sat to Tues) or next (Thurs to Sun). Allowing for the FI nature of any predictions for next week, I see that GFS predicts low pressure in the Alps on Jan 15 but not much precipitation. Usually they go together? Also if you had to decide today, which would you choose? Thanks in advance!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen,
Thanks for that, lets hope the ECM is right and the gfs is wrong !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Looks like 20-30cm pretty widely for the northern Alps from Friday with the likelihood of further snow Sunday into Monday perhaps more so in the southern Alps.
Saturday could be quite sunny and less windy after Friday's snow.
Next week looks cold. But no clear signal for snowfall one way or another at this stage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
fresh snow followed by cold and sunny is fine by me
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen, whats your take on the Dolomoties (Alta Badia area) for this weekend?? GFS seems to showing light snow, snow-forecast maps showing snow coming down from the North, but will it make it into ITaly???
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
