 Poster: A snowHead
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| sbooker wrote: |
@Onelasttime1!, thanks.
@Rob Mackley, you’re right. It’ll be great for cruising pistes, taking in views and lunch on terraces. Being from somewhere that doesn’t get cold I crave proper winter……and the chance to ski fresh snow. Maybe later in the trip I guess. |
First post alert!
I am going to Les Menuires on my first family ski trip (27th Jan). As discussed above, it is starting to look very much like a warm, dry spell. Whilst this is good in many ways (I have a 6 yr old who will be in ski school at 1850m), I was wondering if these conditions could result in heavy freeze/thaw conditions akin to spring? Obviously it'll depend on severity of the temperatures, but will the lower sun and fewer hours lessen the effect of this?
Thanks in advance for any input.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@km0193, there will be some freeze/thaw but nothing like spring slush IMHO, as you said lower sun and fewer hours of sunshine. Some of the southerly facing slopes could get slushy where they are in full sun all day, so bear that in mind as well.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Won’t be much rain in Zermatt this weekend. Zermatt website has overnight village temps down to -17 To -21 overnight. 
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| km0193 wrote: |
I am going to Les Menuires on my first family ski trip (27th Jan). . |
That's much much too far away for there to any meaningful forecasts. Even the models for this weekend are wildly variable from run to run.
Check back in again in 10 days time for a better idea of what you might get for your holiday
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The models haven't changed all that much over the last few days, but probably worth recapping on the outlook for the French & NW Swiss Alps. (Yes, this is France-centric, but this is the area which will be most affected by this storm.)
Basically the bulk of the precipitation is going to fall on Wednesday and Thursday, and as forecast for several days, the snowline for most of the event should be close to 2,000m (on average, could be a bit lower in some favoured regions), and often heavy esp. for the Savoie / Haute Savoie regions (i.e. most of the big northern French resorts). On Thursday afternoon / evening the freezing level will start to drop, but remains to be seen how much snow will get down to lower levels before the storm fizzles out.
Currently it does at least look like hillsides above ~1,200m (maybe lower?) should *at least* get a fresh / cosmetic covering by the end of Thursday. May be tricky to create a new base at these altitudes if the older one has been washed away.
At the beginning of next week there may be some more snow to mid mountain levels (but probably not to low levels), before all the models are (currently) pointing towards an extended mild, settled spell beyond.
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| denfinella wrote: |
The models haven't changed all that much over the last few days, but probably worth recapping on the outlook for the French & NW Swiss Alps. (Yes, this is France-centric, but this is the area which will be most affected by this storm.)
Basically the bulk of the precipitation is going to fall on Wednesday and Thursday, and as forecast for several days, the snowline for most of the event should be close to 2,000m (on average, could be a bit lower in some favoured regions), and often heavy esp. for the Savoie / Haute Savoie regions (i.e. most of the big northern French resorts). On Thursday afternoon / evening the freezing level will start to drop, but remains to be seen how much snow will get down to lower levels before the storm fizzles out.
Currently it does at least look like hillsides above ~1,200m (maybe lower?) should *at least* get a fresh / cosmetic covering by the end of Thursday. May be tricky to create a new base at these altitudes if the older one has been washed away.
At the beginning of next week there may be some more snow to mid mountain levels (but probably not to low levels), before all the models are (currently) pointing towards an extended mild, settled spell beyond. |
When do you expect it to turn to snow in Avoriaz? Meteoblue says about midnight-3am thurs
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Astontech, that's a tricky one because Avoriaz (1800m) resort level is going to be fairly close to the rain-snow limit for a lot of this storm. Going by the latest GFS run I think Meteoblue is about right at this stage, with rain to just above Avoriaz on Wednesday but snow to not far below Avoriaz for most of Thursday morning (then dropping sharply in the afternoon). A little change either way and at 1800m it could be almost all snow, or almost all rain.
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| km0193 wrote: |
As a novice skier who is also going at the end of the month (3 Vallees), what is on-piste snow like if it has not been refreshed for say 1 week of so? I presume it will still be absolutely fine but not optimal? |
After just a week without a snow refresh, it'll be perfect. The snow grooming/maintenance in most resorts (and esp 3v) is excellent.
| Astontech wrote: |
When do you expect it to turn to snow in Avoriaz? Meteoblue says about midnight-3am thurs |
Approximately 1.34am 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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As mentioned so many times before, can we please stick to the weather, ensembles, trends etc and not engage in questions / debates about the conditions and the prospect for snow in specific resorts ahead of holidays and long weekends, there are resort-specific threads for this. Thank you.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Heavy rain to 1500-2000m on Weds (tomorrow).
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You know it makes sense.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Heavy rain to 1500-2000m on Weds (tomorrow). |
where ?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Below is the very specific forecast for the next 48hrs for the Haute Tarentaise . Looks quite a rollercoaster.
 ️   SPECIAL BULLETIN: EPISODE THREE DISTURBING TO COME !
As mentioned several days ago, a new disturbed sequence will be in place for two days until Thursday evening.
This sequence will bring rain to high altitude tomorrow, large water accumulation again in the valley and Thursday, occasional heavy snowfall in station...
DIFFERENT PHASES OF THE PERIOD:
The first precipitation arrives next night from 00h/01h.
This first salvo should be with us until late tomorrow morning before a temporary calm in the precipitation level.
It will snow at the beginning of disturbance at 1500/1600m but very quickly at dawn, the LPN will fly to 2000/2100m depending on sectors, then up to 2200m during the morning, locally up to 2300//2400m under the latest rainfall on the sectors most exposed to the redoux.
We expect in the valley a cumulus of the order of 15/20mm locally 25mm on the most affected sectors.
The snow layer at 1800/2000m before the snow reaches 10/15cm before the rain.
We expect 20cm of heavy snow above 2500m, locally 25cm.
Calming down is expected between the end of the morning tomorrow, and the new salve scheduled tomorrow from 17h/18h.
A few showers possible however during the calm period, rather localized in the mountains, LPN around 2200/2300m altitude.
Then a new salve arrives then late afternoon, and should last this time here until the next day, until late Thursday evening.
Intensities will vary by time of day, with the strongest likely to be between sunrise Thursday and mid-afternoon.
We expect in the valley a cumulus of the order of 35/45mm locally 50/55mm on the most concerned sectors.
It will snow tomorrow at the start of the second disturbed sequence at 1900m then the LPN descends during the evening to 1800m then 1700m in the first part of the night.
In the second part of the night the limit of rain and snow is about 1500/1600m altitude.
At sunrise, despite some doubts still on the LPN is about 1500m, locally 1400m.
Then the LPN caps around 1400/1500m until afternoon before the LPN goes back down under the latest rainfall to 1100/1200m.
Some flakes are not excluded up to 700/800m altitude but in very low quantities.
Above 2000m snow accumulations will be in the order of 40-50cm, at 1800m, we expect 35-40cm locally.
20/30cm expected above 1500/1600m.
10cm above 1300m, suns could whiten up to 1000m Thursday night, locally 800/900m.
Over the whole episode, a cumulus of 80 to 100cm is expected above 2800/3000m altitude!
Regarding the wind, it will remain fairly weak in the valley, despite some gusts to 35/45km/h over the episode and at altitude, the wind will force from next night with gusts over the entire episode at 60/65km/h above 1800/2000m and gusts up to 80/90km/h above 2500/3000m altitude.
Thanks for reading, we'll see you Thursday evening for the next bulletin for your Friday day!
Have a nice evening, everyone!
Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
⬇️Map from the ARPEGE model showing the cumulus in mm expected in the valley (careful not to take at the foot of the letter) (Meteociel)
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Poster: A snowHead
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The 12Z model runs maintain a consistent evolution through the next 7 days. We have the mild interlude on Wednesday and Thursday with quite a rainy spell in the western Alps. A spell of snow will commence on Thursday evening - mainly for the Northern Alps, clearing south by Friday morning. A couple of quiet days over the weekend before a warm high pressure develops over Southern and Central Europe with very high freezing levels. A short unsettled spell is possible during Tuesday with a rain/snow mix, but it looks like the high will strengthen again from the west for much of next week. Unsurprisingly, there is variability beyond next Wednesday as some models hint at somewhat colder air - GFS main run is an extreme example of this, but with no support in the ensembles.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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MeteoBlue/MeteoFrance forecasting 36 hours of rain in Meribel and huge winds/blizzard up top. Two cozy days indoors?
Whilst Champoluc eastwards escapes the warm air, the Dolomites look to have amazing ski weather ahead.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Wow the weather in 4 valleys is delightful right now, if you like swimming.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Been puking here for 4/5 hours!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looks like spring temperatures prevailing from the weekend. Please someone tell me it's short lived?!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@James77, see the post 4 above yours from @Onelasttime1!,
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@kitenski, Thank you
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| KenX wrote: |
| Been puking here for 4/5 hours! |
Puking as in snow?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Hoping forecasts aren't quite right for early next week - some rain forecast even at 1500m in Tyrol. Hopefully it will change a little
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| sbooker wrote: |
| KenX wrote: |
| Been puking here for 4/5 hours! |
Puking as in snow? |
Or as in norovirus?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I hate to write this, and like most here I fully understand the difference between weather & climate, but after last winter's persistent weather being warm with little snow in the Alps for the ~whole season. & this winter of early snow & then precipitation yes, but loads of rain to high altitudes in January (!? ), it may be time to accept that climate change may be catching up with our winter playgrounds in the Alps sadly....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Yes, weather is not static and changes depending on how Earth moves around the sun.
We had periods of extreme warmth, extreme coldness, we had everything and we largely can't control it.
Now pollution is a different conversation, and yes, we should address that the best way possible.
You should compare the temperatures in St. Anton between january 2023 and 2024 to see how things change from an year to another...
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Anyone know the average temperature in any Alpine resort say from Jan-April, from 1970 - 1975 say, versus from 2018-2023?
Now that kind of data could highlight a multitude!!
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You know it makes sense.
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@horgand, last season had one of the best Aprils on record didn't it???
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I would say that 50 years is not relevant in any way to compare that as you can see from the image below...
Trends are way longer than our lifespan
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Poster: A snowHead
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| horgand wrote: |
| I hate to write this, and like most here I fully understand the difference between weather & climate, but after last winter's persistent weather being warm with little snow in the Alps for the ~whole season. & this winter of early snow & then precipitation yes, but loads of rain to high altitudes in January (!? ), it may be time to accept that climate change may be catching up with our winter playgrounds in the Alps sadly.... |
Weather does vary.
I drove down to the Alps in December 2022, it was minus 16, drove back at plus 6 a week later. Apparently this was global warning.
Not Nino or Nina or Gulf stream.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @horgand, last season had one of the best Aprils on record didn't it??? |
After the worst Christmas to March known.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The first week of April 2023 was one of the best weeks of the season in Les Saisies. We were there, and were very pleased. But it was NOT very good for all that and certainly the worst of all the many early Aprils I'd spent in the Espace Diamant! Never seen so few pistes open.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| horgand wrote: |
| I hate to write this, and like most here I fully understand the difference between weather & climate, but after last winter's persistent weather being warm with little snow in the Alps for the ~whole season. & this winter of early snow & then precipitation yes, but loads of rain to high altitudes in January (!? ), it may be time to accept that climate change may be catching up with our winter playgrounds in the Alps sadly.... |
Lots of folks remain in denial.
Winter heatwaves in Europe are the new normal.
Hammering down with rain in Chamonix (1000m) this evening, and zero iso at 2000-2500m.
Just a few years ago, Chamonix had a glacier in town...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
| The first week of April 2023 was one of the best weeks of the season in Les Saisies. We were there, and were very pleased. But it was NOT very good for all that and certainly the worst of all the many early Aprils I'd spent in the Espace Diamant! Never seen so few pistes open. |
We got lucky with a 9 day trip to VT, same week. Temperatures just above 0c mid day, wall to wall sunshine and a big dump at the very end of March. An instructor said it was a freak of January conditions in April, the best conditions he’d seen all winter. Courchevel 1850’s pistes were also fantastic.
Whilst Les Menuires and Meribel itself when we visited during the holiday were slushy at resort level.
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| Quote: |
Lots of folks remain in denial.
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I think that's true.
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Were all the weather models way out on French Alps temperatures? For an age they consistently forecast 8c for Weds and Thurs, with two days of torrential rain for the likes of Morzine and Flaine only easing on Thursday evening.
Chamonix at 1,000m is currently just +2c. Avoriaz is now forecast to have a blizzard starting tonight.
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@Snow&skifan,
I think they have been spot on. It has been pissing down in Morzine all day and currently showing 4.5C outside my house.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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"Just a few years ago, Chamonix had a glacier in town..."
@pishsnow what an idiot you are.
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Is there somewhere I can view current temperatures (official weather stations if possible) from places in the Alps?
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FAQ
