 Poster: A snowHead
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Dumping in Axamer Lizum all day, light rain in Innsbruck now... Nordkette or Axamer tomorrow? Decisions...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, where is classed as the "Northern Alps. Is Le Grand Bornand/La Clusaz is that area, or is that more western alps? Cheers for the updates
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Meanwhile ECM decides it wants to visit part of the polar vortex on Europe and indeed the UK where that would feel very cold. Clearly a lot of uncertainty between the models (and the ECM outcome looks to be at the more extreme end).
Cold of one sort or another though featuring in most output.
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nozawaonsen, How's it looking for snow for the UK ?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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AndAnotherThing.., it's looking like it will get colder. Very hard at this point to say how much colder.
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nozawaonsen, Fingers crossed it will. I want to get some local skiing in for this year 
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The funny thing about this current 'heatwave', you know - it's bastard cold.
I was freezing to death on a chairlift today, and have had numerous mornings scraping bulletproof ice off my windscreen (down here at just below 500m).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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CathS, it's showing pressure.
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18z GFS continues the theme.
Snow into the northern Alps next Friday and then again Saturday night, Sunday morning.
Some very cold temperatures kicking around from the end if the week.
The detail is shifting from run to run though.
This one pulls a low through the Mediterranean around +240 shovelling snow all across the southern Alps. But too far off and too much uncertainty at this point.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| CathS, it's showing pressure. |
Presumably the numbered isobars also show pressure? (at a different altitude to the colour bands?) - and how does it all relate to temperature?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bring on that Med low, off to the Dolomites on the 18th... 
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You know it makes sense.
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BBC weather is now picking up on this cold snap. The country file forecast this evening will probably give a more in depth view on it.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Today's output has tended tobpul away from deep cold fr the end of the week (still colder than average mind you). Also pulled back from much in the way of snowfall. That said there is a lot of inconsistency inbetween runs and models and I would not be too surprised to see further evolutions tomorrow.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
Today's output has tended tobpul away from deep cold fr the end of the week
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Good. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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andy from embsay, that's the control run. In general and in contrast to yesterday today's runs are less supportive of substantial snowfall next weekend. However:
a. you will doubtless still be able to pick out some individual ensemble members that do show snowfall.
b. there may well be snowfall next weekend.
c. by tomorrow the ensembles may have changed again and may look more supportive of heavier snowfall.
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What does the control run mean? (Sorry for my iggerance!).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
| Also pulled back from much in the way of snowfall. |
Bad 
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The Met Office model outputs are starting to come into range for the end of the week, with plenty of frontal activity being shown on their T+120 chart, and I see that this morning the BBC weather forecast (which I think is based on MetO output?) is predicting heavy snow for St Anton on Friday.
Noza what do you think? I presume this is just another variable in a very volatile forecast?
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I'm not sure that the overseas forecasts on the BBC are made using the UKMO model. I think there will be snow at the end of the week. It's unclear how much it mostly looks quite light at present though could change in the bext few runs. It will certainly get colder over most of Europe.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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i m with you harri.,........of to Ste Foy this weekend...a little freshen up required
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Just back from Ste Foy , just a little update of conditions in the Tarentaise , although some pistes could be described as a little hard the conditions are very good for this early in the season , I have just had one of my better new year trips conditions wise , so worry not my little worryers everything is fine . Re this weekends heatwave , it was just pleasant rather than mild , BSM still white .
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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good to hear Rob...hope you are well and had a great trip
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Great thanks , have a good trip .
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You know it makes sense.
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Ski conditions (on piste) are well-nigh perfect here, and with this wonderful weather it's hard to imagine much better, especially with almost empty slopes. I can see that the off-piste is pretty well gone in most places (when I ventured off it didn't last long, though more skilled people were doing OK) but the snow on piste is fast, but no ice at all (or not that I've encountered) and no problem gripping. Need to follow the sun round for optimum conditions.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Continues to look light some colder temperatures and light snow (10-20cms) at the end of the week.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Any one kindly shed some light on what weather our party can expect from thursday night onwards at les contamines? I know its light snow but according to S.F.com le grand bornard just 30 miles away is due 20cm plus..! Any ideas at this stage on what ammounts will fall.. Thx and apologies if this is the 60m $ question but everyone on the trip are now at fever point and nagging hell into me for some info..! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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harrymac, at the moment it looks like about 10-20cms at the end of the week (I think I said that already mind you).
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nozawaonsen, yes thx you did...but is there likely to be that much of a differnce in 30 miles or so you think? Il be happy with 20cm mind and so will the rest of us..Do you think the snow is a definatenozawaonsen, ?Thx for replying.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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harrymac, there can be massive differences in snowfall over much smaller distances.
The apparent exact figures given on forecasts like snowforecast.com are (not deliberately) misleading in their apparent precision. It is not possible to be that precise, nor is it possible to measure that accurately afterwards.
Looking at what I assume is the same forecast as you on snowforecast.com and adding up the numbers I get 19cm. Seems to be in the same ball park to me.
Is it definite? No. But light snow (10-20cm) seems likely at present.
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nozawaonsen, how reliable is snow-forecast.com. When in resort and looking at the weather for up to 5 days out, I've always found it pretty spot on. It's gets a lot of criticism on here, why I'm not quite sure as I've always found it pretty much spot on. What's your thoughts on it?
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| Ricklovesthepowder wrote: |
| nozawaonsen, how reliable is snow-forecast.com. When in resort and looking at the weather for up to 5 days out, I've always found it pretty spot on. It's gets a lot of criticism on here, why I'm not quite sure as I've always found it pretty much spot on. What's your thoughts on it? |
I really am no expert, but over the last few years in both the Alps and Pyrenees snow-forcast.com has been reasonably reliable for 5 days hence or thereabouts. Caveat, this is a punter's view.
Works for me.
Doesn't stop me obsessively checking Noza's posts on here though  Keep up the good work!
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sequoiaboard, I agree. For up to about 5 days I think it's very accurate, including snowfall amounts, when it will fall and temperatures were pretty good as well.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Ricklovesthepowder, snowforecast.com uses the GFS operational run (the thick green run on the ensemble charts) as it's base data. So do numerous other commercial sites. This is fine in as far as it goes. The operational run is the one run at the highest resolution.
However, just using one run rather than the suite of ensembles means that you are foregoing the complexity and subtlety of the forecast in exchange for something that appears simple. But it is poorer for this simplicity. It gives the impression of accuracy by being more definite, but in fact is less accurate because it gives no impression of the confidence you can have in the forecast. And without confidence a forecast is fairly pointless.
That said at five days out it's not bad. I think it suffers close in and further out the op run is prone to quite dramatic shifts and these of course show up in wildly changing output.
It's fine for what it is mind you (and someone presumably makes a nice bit of cash out of it so nice for them). Just be aware of the shortcomings. And don't pay too much attention to the snowfall totals other than as broad brush tool.
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nozawaonsen, cheers. I'm starting to shy away from it and start using all of the graphs and other web pages that you use, although processing that into snowfall and amounts is quite difficult!
Keep up the good work, the 10-20cm of snow forecast for Le Grand Bornand will be handy if it comes off!
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