Hello all, pls can someone post me the graph like brian has for argentaire for la plagne
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Hi
Rather lost the thread of all this now with so many models in existance all producing slightly different results. I am off to Les Menuires on the 16th January for a week. I can gather that the temps are due to fall that week and that we might get some snow from the 20th onwards. Is this a fair appraisal of the weeks weather or can one of you very kind folks add some more colour for me?
Great thread btw and thank you to everyone for all their contributions and work.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Ricklovesthepowder, check out winter highland, just been on there nevis had 14-18 fresh sunday into monday and more last night!! Looks amazing up ther, way better than the alps but the weather is set to get milder from thurs onwards so sleet etc. Best days today and tom!!p.s all areas look grt!
Griggs, yep. On current output the western end of the alps isn't really very favoured for snowfall but a long way to go and things will inevitably change, possibly a lot. I think the trend to colder weather is pretty well established though.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
And thank you from me !!
With the snow of the last couple of days friends who are in the resort already report much improved conditions. Fingers crossed for those cooler temps and a some snow. To be honest I'd settle for cooler temps and sun for that lunchtime beer !
After all it is free
After all it is free
Griggs, still tricky getting much consistency from the models at present. 06z GFS was better than 12z this afternoon. Still see the cold trend though! Let's see if tomorrow there is more of a consistent pattern!
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Quote:
still tricky getting much consistency from the models at present
Good. I think I'd prefer inconsistency to some of the options on offer! When they're all over the place, there's always hope!!
snowing hard right now; much nicer stuff than last time.
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looks to be well down the hill too looking at a couple of cams this evening
brian
brian Guest
Woo-hoo! ECM 12z, proper retrogression of the high to the azores, a nice clear run for atlantic moisture from a cool direction.
Me like
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
ch-ching
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The snow in the Western Alps looks like it has maybe an hour or two before it starts to calm down eventually tailing off around 4am or 5am tomorrow morning. Should be some sunshine and broken cloud around tomorrow. Should be a good day for skiing in the French Alps and Western Switzerland following today's fresh snow (though stating the obvious avalanche risk is going to be something to watch...)
Temperatures will start rising - tomorrow morning looks like being the coolest point for about the next week.
There is very strong consistency that temperatures across the Alps will rise considerably up to Friday and then remain around that point, possibly just slightly lower, for the next few days. It looks like being pretty sunny from Thursday into early next week. It will feel very much like Spring. There could well be quite a bit of melt and refreeze. Book a table with a terrace and a view now before everyone else grabs them...
Before we get to the sunshine there will be some further snow coming into the Eastern Alps later tomorrow afternoon around 4pm.
The tricky part is that by the time this arrives temperatures will be quite warm. Snow line could be 2000m+ by Thursday and this precipitation looks like it could stick around all day. So potentially really quite a bit of snow at altitude, but it looks like a fair amount of rain lower down...
By Friday though, the Eastern Alps have cleared up too and there should be the same Spring like weather and high pressure dominating. It will however be a couple of degrees C lower than the Western Alps (still very warm for the time of year).
Friday looks like being the warmest day in the Alps, the rest of the weekend a little less warm, but not by much...
By Tuesday though things start to cool and there is a fairly strong pattern for consistent cooling after that.
Where there is a lot of inconsistency over is how it plays out from then, whether it is a very steep cooling, whether less so and how much if any snow might arrive. The ensembles have played with each option over the last two or three days several times. I would imagine we may start seeing a pattern building more clearly by this time on Thursday, possibly tomorrow. We'll see...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Before we get to the sunshine there will be some further snow coming into the Eastern Alps later tomorrow afternoon around 4pm.
...
thats me glued to the mayrhofen webcam at 3.55 then
brian
brian Guest
Don't think we learned much from GFS 18z, looks a bit wacky to me past +168. Oh well, who knows what tomorrow brings? Hopefully ECM is onto something, it certainly has a more believable feel to it (wishful thinking caveat here).
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
tim000, just make sure the webcam is trained to above 2000m...
Should be a little bit of snow in Austria first thing as the system leaving France tonight breaks up on its way over.
18z slams the breaks on the Atlantic next week and then... pauses a bit... then brings in cold and snow from the east...
Hmm...
Cooling down next week remains the theme...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
brian, definitely an odd run. Everything just kind of stalled in the middle...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
am liking the cooling down theme. off to tignes 23rd jan, and hoping it stays cold for the chance of some fresh snow!!!
The pattern out to Monday remains broadly the same. Warming up across the Alps steadily between now and Friday, increasingly sunny (but see below). Then staying warm over the weekend before starting to cool down.
The eastern Alps still have some tricky weather to get through with some potentially stormy weather coming through later this afternoon and tomorrow. This could start as snow at around 1200m late this afternoon, but temperatures rise quickly overnight leaving the snowline around 1850m+, possibly 2000m+ for a period.
By Friday sunshine looks likely across the Alps. South facing slopes will be taking a hit over the weekend. Melt and refreeze is likely to mean slopes are hard in the morning, soft in the afternoon. Aspect and altitude will be important. The snowpack may well react adversely to being warmed up like this. Beer will be best served very cold.
So onto next week. Still tricky, but this morning's output reinforces the cold theme. People arriving this weekend may arrive in Spring, but could well be leaving a week later in Winter. There is a hint of snow on Monday into Tuesday, more in the east than west. This has been in one or two runs recently. Will be interesting to see if it is still there at the end of the day...
FI according to GFS operational keeps getting colder and chances of snow increasing as weather comes in from the north east... We'll see...
Possibly some echoes between GFS and ECM this morning, but it would be good to see some sort of consistency building around +192...
Here are ensembles for the area around Les Deux Alpes.
Good to see two runs looking alike for a change. And both GFS 00z and 06z operational runs promise to take things cold by the end of next week, starting from about 18 January. Then colder again from about 23 January. The cold is fed from the North East. And the chart finishes by threatening more of the same.
Looks possibly snowier from about the 19 Jan. Though no clear signal. Possibility of something coming through next Tuesday, but doesn't look that strong right now.
Will be interesting to see what this evening's runs produce...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Mitchell, See above. 23 January is a long way off though. So could all change. Difficult at present to pick a clear trend other than colder from early next week. The charts above suggest a slight warming around 23 January within a generally cold background before further cooling... But...
After all it is free
After all it is free
is it me or does the chamonix ensemble look like the cold has softened slightly in the last 24hrs for 19th onwards? Still cooler than average in the main but definately a few more runs appearing above the ave line too now
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skinutter, I like that 00z and 06z both brought really rather cold operational options... The operational run is the most heavily weighted. 12z pulled back a bit, but even then had things 10c cooler next Tuesday than this Friday. Then (gently) cooled it further. We'll see 18z...
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What is the Scottish outlook please nozawaonsen,
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Ricklovesthepowder, it's going to wee wee with rain for a little while with maybe a little bit of snow mixed in but mostly rain then it is probably going to cool down and snow before you go. It's still a month away!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
skinutter, had another look through last week's GFS ensembles...
Majority of runs, have majority of ensembles below seasonal average for the Alps from about 19 January. Fair number of them significantly below average. So looks ok to me, for now...
Plenty of variation and still hard to have confidence beyond cooler from next Tuesday... But...
18z operational this evening certainly starts toying with snowier options...
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 14-01-11 9:24; edited 1 time in total
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Would of course be rude not to point out that heavy snow has continued in parts of Japan...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
brian, the gfs graph you pointed me too, how accurate are these Seem to recall in yrs gne by that they are pretty close? I know its the weather and things can and will change but whats your thoughts
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Would of course be rude not to point out that heavy snow has continued in parts of Japan...
Can you just let me know when it has stopped snowing???
I guess I'm just not cut out to be a 'powder monkey'!!!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
skinutter, had another look through last week's GFS ensembles...
Majority of runs, have majority of ensembles below seasonal average for the Alps from about 19 January. Fair number of them significantly below average. So looks ok to me, for now...
Plenty of variation and still hard to have confidence beyond cooler from next Tuesday... But...
18z operational this evening certainly starts toying with snowier options...
Thanks Noza....watching with interest
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
cold but dry after the 19th, certainly in the west...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like it is raining pretty heavily in parts of Eastern Switzerland, Italy and Austria at present. This stormy weather could go on for most of today. When it clears there should be quote a bit of snow above 2000m.
Then Spring. And sunshine.
Colder from Tuesday in the east, Wednesday in the west (indeed a good two or three degrees cooler in the east over the weekend too).
It looks at present like temperatures will fall down to Friday 21 January and then rise slightly back to seasonal average around Sunday 23 January. After that it is unclear whether temperatures will fall again or remain close to seasonal average.
looking at where I am next week, there is a 'hint' of a little precipitation around 19/20th, let's hope that continues to grow and other runs come into agreement!!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
kitenski, definitely worth watching. 18z control run last night made a strong bid for snow around then. Not so clear this morning (and 00z in general lacks a certain rock and roll element), and it looks a little marginal, but will be interesting to see if anything comes of it.
Starting to look potentially rather snowy around 23/24 January... Worth watching I think. Good GFS 12z operational and control this evening...
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 14-01-11 0:32; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
whoop whoop
thats a thing of beauty
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 13-01-11 19:38; edited 1 time in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
I love this thread, even when you lot are are on about places I am not even going!
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MoodyFFS wrote:
I love this thread
I love this thread and most of the time i haven't a clue what you are talking about
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stewart woodward wrote:
MoodyFFS wrote:
I love this thread
I love this thread and most of the time i haven't a clue what you are talking about
Me 2, i aint got a bloody clue about the whole thing. I have read the guide on how to use them and im still non the wiser. I think the dark blue/purple colours mean cold, other than that im pi$$ing into the wind.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
Let's see if tomorrow there is more of a consistent pattern!
Seem to recall in yrs gne by that they are pretty close? I know its the weather and things can and will change but whats your thoughts 
