 Poster: A snowHead
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@snowheid, yes he’s not the messiah, just a very naughty boy. Have not been watching models that much recently.
But in general for France as above looks like a brief warm spell Wednesday, while Thursday getting colder quicker. Both days likely to be quite heavy ppn, just looking at ensemble mean. Should be a pretty good week, sunny then snowy. Make the most of it is my plan, am offski.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| polo wrote: |
@snowheid, yes he’s not the messiah, just a very naughty boy. Have not been watching models that much recently.
But in general for France as above looks like a brief warm spell Wednesday, while Thursday getting colder quicker. Both days likely to be quite heavy ppn, just looking at ensemble mean. Should be a pretty good week, sunny then snowy. Make the most of it is my plan, am offski. |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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To understand the complexity of the situation next week, look at this forecast from The Met Office model for 00Z 18th Jan: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=3&model=ukmhd&var=43&run=0&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref
The blue numbers are mm of precipitation in a 6-hour period and the contours are freezing level in metres. Note the exceptionally strong thermal gradient just to the north of the Alps where freezing level changes from 2000m to 100m in a few kms. All the models have a similar thermal gradient, but with most it is further north. If you use the green time bar at the top of this web page and move 12 hours forward, there is a dramatic move southwards in the position of the thermal gradient and therefore the rain/snow boundary. As many have said, we will not see the true picture of this evolution for a few days yet.
We should all acknowledge the great work done by the folks at WetterZentrale and the similar sites who make this data available to us for free.
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Will have a look, thank you. What about early Feb or is it all much of the same?
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 12-01-24 11:55; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Astontech, what area are you looking at? |
I use meteociel/wetterzentral as well as netweather charting page. If yo uare asking what location I am looking at - I will be in Avoriaz 1800.
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| Joehdhchdhd wrote: |
| Will have a look, thank you. What about early Feb or is it all much of the same? |
Nobody knows that far out, stop stressing about trying to get a perfect sunny week! Or go in April where the chances of that are much higher! But I've also had blizzards in April.
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still huge discrepancy in the models 4 days out.... fun to watch
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@kitenski, I know, I wouldn’t be so bothered if the forecast was snow and low vis, but skiing in the rain is not fun
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Great Uk forecast next week. Sparkling sunshine and excellent visibility for most. The dry cold northerly airstream should quickly dry the ground out. Lots of potential for snow showers over the Scottish ski centres which will make a difference although wind might be an issue. Potential for some light snow in parts of England on Tuesday.
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| kitenski wrote: |
still huge discrepancy in the models 4 days out.... fun to watch
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Logged on at 40,000’ between Doha and Geneva to look at the latest charts. I’m generally more of an EC guy, but GFS has the outcome I’d prefer!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Joehdhchdhd, think you gonna have to get used to it ….. very rarely has a week gone by this season in the western alps when it hasn’t rained up to 1800m
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Perhaps not too surprising given the record heat over the previous 12 months or more. Everything is going to take time to cool down. We are a long way away from the climate of the 1960s and 1970s 
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| Peter S wrote: |
| Great Uk forecast next week. Sparkling sunshine and excellent visibility for most. The dry cold northerly airstream should quickly dry the ground out. Lots of potential for snow showers over the Scottish ski centres which will make a difference although wind might be an issue. Potential for some light snow in parts of England on Tuesday. |
GFS forecasts 40cm plus for Sutherland and Wester Ross.
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You know it makes sense.
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Would be great to get some advice. Am considering switching from a trip to Flaine (arriving next Friday, skiing for 4 days) and going to Obergurgl instead. Smart move given the rain coming up next week? Is rain unlikely to hit Austria next week? Can’t see anything forecasted across sites!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@samendacott, The rain episode is due the wed up to say 1800/2000m before you go then it turns to snow and a cold weekend is due why change ? Your timing looks great on current forecasts .
Seems to be a little too much panic going on at the moment conditions are great in most French resorts bar the very low and a day of rain isn’t going to change that .
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Poster: A snowHead
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All weather models from what I can see forecast a huge dump mid week over northern France all the way to Lille, Belgium and SE Netherlands, up to 55cm.
Anywhere here ever skied in the Ardennes?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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More warm weather due at the end of the month too. At this stage anyway.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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They are struggling to forecast next week accurately, would hold off for the end of the month forecast!
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@Alpinebear, I dunno. I’m not making a forecast. The webpages like Wettercentrale are. And their graphs (GFS and EC) show warms temps at the end of the month. I did also use the words ‘at this stage’.
Serious question. Is it folly to even look at the forecasts past about a week? It’s just guess work that far out?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@sbooker, no, it's not folly. It depends on the agreement between runs ) models - if they're changing on every run then there's no point guessing, but if there's a pattern it may be worth following.
At the moment the models are unusually consistent for that timeframe, with reasonable agreement for warm but perhaps fairly settled weather from the 25th ish.
Usual caveats apply and it could all change, but if I had to, say, pick a resort for that week now, I'd be less concerned about choosing somewhere high, exposed and treeless, compared to if an unsettled spell was projected.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
Anywhere here ever skied in the Ardennes? |
I was on my way to the Elephantreffen (winter motorcycle rally) and saw a ski site, stopped and had a quick look, not sure I would bother unless I lived in the locality.
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Weather models now seem to match with 48 hours of torrential rain and 55kmh winds for the French Alps. Meteo France forecasting 0c all day Wednesday at 2,950m above Meribel. Morzine 9c Wednesday afternoon.
Snowfall/raining line 2,500m?
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Meteociel has rain Wednesday for ADH and snow Thursday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Alpinebear wrote: |
| Meteociel has rain Wednesday for ADH and snow Thursday. |
At resort level Meteo France has a similar forecast, snow by Thursday evening.
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2500m freezing level Wednesday in Meribel looks like a brief blip as back to 1950 Thurs pm
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The blocking pattern will be eroded this week, so that by next weekend we return to a strong westerly jet stream propagating across the Atlantic in response to the very cold air coming out of Canada and the eastern USA. This will result in a series of deep lows coming towards the northern Scotland/Iceland area during and after next weekend. Some of the models (ECMWF and GEM) take the lows next week a bit further north and build a warm high over the Alps, whilst GFS is more mobile, bringing a series of frontal systems across the Alps in the 7-10 day period. These are only minor differences in evolution on this timescale, but a significant impact on day-to-day weather over the Alps.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks like another washout down low, or even double washout if that 22nd-24th spike materializes. So much for the “it’s always variable in December but Jan snow is guaranteed” crew.
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You know it makes sense.
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@BobinCH, Yep
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I think that both 2m and 1500m (850 hPa) have their uses. The 2m temperature will obviously tell you what is happening near the surface, but in the case that you show for the coming Wed/Thurs, the 1500m temperature is so high (+6C) that any precipitation will be rain at 1500m. Just looking at 2m can be misleading as the influence of the cold, snow covered surface will strongly impact the near surface temperature. For charts, I recommend using 850hPa as this shows the airmass temperature which you don't see with surface pressure.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
I think that both 2m and 1500m (850 hPa) have their uses. The 2m temperature will obviously tell you what is happening near the surface, but in the case that you show for the coming Wed/Thurs, the 1500m temperature is so high (+6C) that any precipitation will be rain at 1500m. Just looking at 2m can be misleading as the influence of the cold, snow covered surface will strongly impact the near surface temperature. For charts, I recommend using 850hPa as this shows the airmass temperature which you don't see with surface pressure. |
Many thanks!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This is on track to be the rainiest winter season that Western Europe has ever seen.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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When can i expect the rain to turn to snow in Avoriaz on Wed/Thurs? Should we get enough snow there after the rain to give everything a nice covering again?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Snowing in La Clusaz
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Astontech wrote: |
| When can i expect the rain to turn to snow in Avoriaz on Wed/Thurs? Should we get enough snow there after the rain to give everything a nice covering again? |
The torrential rain in Avoriaz only lasts 36 hours, turning to snow on Thursday afternoon according to MeteoBlue.
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@Onelasttime1!, At what point do you think the situation for into next week becomes a bit more clear? I'm seeing some suggestion of April/May like temps late next week. Hopefully GFS is right on this occasion.
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Another day on the weather merry-go-round! We're off on Saturday but I've stopped looking at snow-forecast as it changes every time I look!!
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| sbooker wrote: |
| @Onelasttime1!, At what point do you think the situation for into next week becomes a bit more clear? I'm seeing some suggestion of April/May like temps late next week. Hopefully GFS is right on this occasion. |
The 00Z runs of the models suggest that for the 7 to 10 day period high pressure and warm air aloft will become established over the Alps, so hinting at spring like conditions. ECMWF main run tries to push a cold front towards the Alps late in the period, but there is little support for this in the ensemble predictions. Generally, the models are quite good in the 7-10 day period when the atmospheric pattern is quite zonal with long wavelength systems as we will see next week, so there should be higher than normal confidence in this evolution. As for the skiing conditions, expect a lengthy dry spell, above normal temperatures and some softening of south facing and lower level slopes. Take plenty of factor 50 too!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looks like the weathers gonna be great for ski fun and with it being January Id doubt not much damage to the slopes . What’s not to like especially if you are on a months ski tour @sbooker,
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@Onelasttime1!, thanks.
@Rob Mackley, you’re right. It’ll be great for cruising pistes, taking in views and lunch on terraces. Being from somewhere that doesn’t get cold I crave proper winter……and the chance to ski fresh snow. Maybe later in the trip I guess.
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