 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, whats the confidence of that on the 17th/19th? I've been seeing various outlies on the GFS runs for a few days now but not much agreeement. Assume very low confidence??
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen, whats the confidence of that on the 17th/19th? I've been seeing various outlies on the GFS runs for a few days now but not much agreeement. Assume very low confidence?? |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| If (if) 06z validates then you’d have fresh snow across the northern Alps on 17 and 19 January. Obviously a big if. But perhaps worth keeping an eye out to see if it starts picking up any support... |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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As a side question ... when did artificial snowmaking become prevalent across most resorts (I know that methods and technology have and continue to evolve)? I know it's not necessarily a weather-related question but the fact that we are now able to produce man-made snow in such large quantities alleviates some of the concerns, worries etc expressed on this thread. I suspect it would be a much longer one too if snow-making hadn't been invented.
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The 06z also brings back in small amounts of snow on the 10th, but it looks like a dusting only (western Alps).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen or anyone else, can you explain what is special about the GFS operational and control runs as opposed to the other runs? Should we be attaching equal importance to the other runs, or not?
Quite a lot of attention often seems to be given to the operational run, but sometimes it actually seems to be an outlier compared to the other runs (though not so much at the moment).
On the 06z (for the NW Alps), the operational run is indeed going for snow and relative cold on 17th and 19th, but taken together, the ensembles show more of a likelihood for precipitation a bit earlier (around the 15-17th), but warmer temperatures. I know at this timescale it's not a big difference, but just an example of how the operational run can show something quite different from the ensemble average.
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| franga wrote: |
| As a side question ... when did artificial snowmaking become prevalent across most resorts (I know that methods and technology have and continue to evolve)? I know it's not necessarily a weather-related question but the fact that we are now able to produce man-made snow in such large quantities alleviates some of the concerns, worries etc expressed on this thread. I suspect it would be a much longer one too if snow-making hadn't been invented. |
I remember going to Kitzbuhel in 1988 (I think) and they had one run with snowmaking (the south facing run to link to Pass Thurn)
So sometime between then and now!
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Franga, I suspect a lot of the anxiety is about the lack of fresh snow for off piste skiing rather than a lack of depth on piste. The majority of ski runs and lifts are now open across the Alps. the current anticyclonic conditions have been perfect for high mileage piste skiing.
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@denfinella, the operational run is a high resolution run with no change to the initial conditions. The control is run at lower resolution (still no change to initial conditions). It therefore provides a control to allow you to gauge how much the resolution effects the output. All the other ensemble runs are run at lower resolution, but with small changes in the initial conditions to see how much that impacts the output over time.
Use the control and the ensemble pack to gauge how much confidence to have in the operational run. But at least as importantly watch over time to see if the operational run is picking up a pattern from one run to the next and whether that is starting to repeat.
The closer the support by the control, the higher the confidence. The closer the support by the ensembles as a whole the higher the confidence. The more the operational sticks to its guns the higher the confidence. The more cross model support the higher the confidence. And the opposite in terms of reducing confidence.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| franga wrote: |
| As a side question ... when did artificial snowmaking become prevalent across most resorts (I know that methods and technology have and continue to evolve)? I know it's not necessarily a weather-related question but the fact that we are now able to produce man-made snow in such large quantities alleviates some of the concerns, worries etc expressed on this thread. I suspect it would be a much longer one too if snow-making hadn't been invented. |
The majority of snow cannons also require the temperature to be low enough. While there's been lots of snow on the higher slopes, the lower slopes haven't done so well and snow depths aren't great in certain places. Temps are currently so high in those places that I'm guessing it's quite hard to both produce and maintain man-made snow.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Peter S, you're no doubt right, but - particularly as I know you have a special interest in the Dolomites where snowmaking and low humidity is king - it's probably worth noting that not all is as rosy in the lowest, mostly small resorts at the fringes of the Alps (and outwith the Alps), where it's often been dry and / or too mild to make artificial snow, or else they don't have snowmaking.
At the far end of the spectrum, there are still a handful of ski areas which haven't been able to open a single piste so far this season, which is a shame both for all the Xmas / New Year skiers who booked holidays there and also in terms of lost revenue. I think this highlights just how important altitude has been this season, where we had a wet / snowy but mild early winter. The snowpack is typically above average above 1500 metres (say), but below average below 1200 metres in the western Alps and typically non-existent below 1,000 metres.
I don't want to be a doom merchant, so I feel I should say that there is still a lot to be positive about regarding the season so far in the majority of the Alps! Just that there isn't sufficient snow everywhere yet.
@nozawaonsen, thanks for the explanation (which I think I understand!). I'm also guessing that the unchanged initial conditions of the operational / control runs are the ones which are supposedly the most accurate - i.e. on average the other runs are less accurate than the operational / control?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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> The first snow-making machines in Europe appeared in Italy in the early 1980s
No, they first used it in Europe in the Vosges in 1963 at the Champ du Feu AFAIKS (indeed in the article they reference Scotland in 1963)
http://pistehors.com/backcountry/wiki/Vosges/Hohwald-Champ-Du-Feu
but too warm to save the skiing this year: https://montchampdufeu.com/fr/pistes-de-ski/
> as many as 200 ski resorts now stand abandoned across the Alps
or more maybe?
Just thinking of the Chartreuse, and, not a lot of people know this but there were ski lifts at Mont St Martin in the village, Proveysieux, Corbel, St Meme, la Ruchere and the Col du Coq. Le Granier also went bust 2 years ago and is currently on life support (no snow this year anyway). The Col de Porte only has a couple of lifts running this season. St Pierre de Chartreuse only has a couple of lifts running. St Hilaire, Barioz, St Hughes, the Desert d'Entremont and Le Sappey are closed due to lack of snow this winter. So that is 6 bankrupt ski areas in one mountain area. In the Vercors the Col de l'Arzeillier went bust last winter and is probably closed for good now.
Of the above list only the Col de Porte and the Col du Coq are viable snow wise with snow on the ground from November to May in an average winter. Maybe the Col du Cucheron (north part of St Pierre de Chartreuse area). A report by Herve Gumuchian way back in 1975 noted the same thing with an extreme variability of snow cover from one season to the next in the 1000-1500m altitude range with the start of winter sometimes coming very late. Plus ça change 45 years later.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 8-01-20 14:59; edited 3 times in total
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@denfinella, setting the initial conditions is not straightforward. It requires collecting a huge amount of data about the state of the atmosphere within a short window. From this data you assemble your model of what you think the initial conditions are. But because it’s a model and therefore not real inaccuracies may creep in. Over the course of a specific run these inaccuracies may be amplified. By slightly adjusting the initial inputs you can get a sense of what degree of uncertainty there is.
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You know it makes sense.
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| davidof wrote: |
| not a lot of people know this... |
Or indeed that. Or that he apparently never said it anyway. I may have gone off on a tangent.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@clarky999, fair point. Must admit I've been keeping a closer eye on the western half of the Alps as that's where I'll be later this month 
Though I did specify western Alps when talking about specific altitudes!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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12z GFS again provides fresh snow for the western and northern Alps around 17 and 19 January along with colder temperatures.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 12z GFS again provides fresh snow for the western and northern Alps around 17 and 19 January along with colder temperatures. |
But not as far as Obergurgl?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@buchanan101, yep, it’s on northern side of Alps.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @denfinella, setting the initial conditions is not straightforward. It requires collecting a huge amount of data about the state of the atmosphere within a short window. From this data you assemble your model of what you think the initial conditions are. But because it’s a model and therefore not real inaccuracies may creep in. Over the course of a specific run these inaccuracies may be amplified. By slightly adjusting the initial inputs you can get a sense of what degree of uncertainty there is. |
"all models are wrong, but some models are useful"
"For such a model there is no need to ask the question "Is the model true?". If "truth" is to be the "whole truth" the answer must be "No". The only question of interest is "Is the model illuminating and useful?"."
- George Box 1987
Think that holds here.
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I’m liking the 12GFS, would be lovely if it verifies as still in FI (fantasy island) 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Predictions for Cervinia/Zermatt? Are they included on the 17th and 19th snowfall?
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 12z GFS again provides fresh snow for the western and northern Alps around 17 and 19 January along with colder temperatures. |
But not as far as Obergurgl? |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @buchanan101, yep, it’s on northern side of Alps. |
Is there a handy guide somewhere to what people mean by the different designations like "northern", "western", "eastern" etc? I'm never quite sure and it seems I'm not the only one. Does "western and northern" mean, roughly, everywhere except the Dolomites and the Balkans?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Think of the main alpine ridge as the natural barrier between Italy and northern Europe. So, the main alpine ridge start at the Mediterranean Sea. Then it heads north where it turns around Chamonix/Mont Blanc. Then it goes east through Valais and through Switzerland. It enters Austria south of Liechtenstein and goes east in southern Austrian Tirol. The weather west/north of the Alpine ridge is often very different from south/east. That is why you often can drive through the Gottard tunnel and come out in a very different weather than when you drove in to the tunnel. The main ridge is where you find all the largest mountains, which creates weather barriers.
To sum it roughly;
Northern Alps: north of Valais , Ticino and southern part of Graubünden in Switzerland, almost everything in Austrian Tirol and further east, north of Carinthia.
Western Alps: almost every French part of the Alps apart from a little area just north of Chamonix and West of Switzerland ( portes du soleil). Also southwestern part of Valais.
Southern Alps: All of Italian part of the Alps plus some southern part of Valais, Ticino and Graubünden in Switzerland and Carinthia in Austria.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Woosh, unless you are French, in which case "Northern Alps" means the Northern French Alps...
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| franga wrote: |
| As a side question ... when did artificial snowmaking become prevalent across most resorts (I know that methods and technology have and continue to evolve)? I know it's not necessarily a weather-related question but the fact that we are now able to produce man-made snow in such large quantities alleviates some of the concerns, worries etc expressed on this thread. I suspect it would be a much longer one too if snow-making hadn't been invented. |
Artificial-snow usage in the "big two" ski regions of North America and Western Europe has risen from roughly 1% of all resorts in the 1950s to 20% in the 1980s and 95% in 2020.
The past two Winter Olympics, in 2014 and 2018, have been run mostly on fake snow.
The length of real-snow seasons in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 20-30 days since the 1970s.
By 2050, many ski resorts, like Germany or New Hampshire, will probably operate entirely on fake snow.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| franga wrote: |
| As a side question ... when did artificial snowmaking become prevalent across most resorts (I know that methods and technology have and continue to evolve)? I know it's not necessarily a weather-related question but the fact that we are now able to produce man-made snow in such large quantities alleviates some of the concerns, worries etc expressed on this thread. I suspect it would be a much longer one too if snow-making hadn't been invented. |
Artificial-snow usage in the "big two" ski regions of North America and Western Europe has risen from roughly 1% of all resorts in the 1950s to 20% in the 1980s and 95% in 2020.
The past two Winter Olympics, in 2014 and 2018, have been run mostly on fake snow.
The length of real-snow seasons in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 20-30 days since the 1970s.
By 2050, many ski resorts, like Germany or New Hampshire, will probably operate entirely on fake snow. |
While I agree with the general message of a shorter, later ski season and more “extremes” of weather, referencing the Socchi and South Korean olympics as examples is a stretch.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @Woosh, unless you are French, in which case "Northern Alps" means the Northern French Alps... |
And unless you are French, in which case "Southern Alps" means the Southern French Alps...
And there can be staggering differences between the two!!!
Do think a fair majority on here making comments about short seasons / lack of snow etc, forget or were unaware as to how much snow we had way back in the second week of November and how it just carried on for nigh on a month, and that accumulated snow-fall, apart from 15cm a couple of weeks ago is the base that we have at the moment 
I note that the snow that was showing for the back end of next week (20cm or so) has now moved on.
That said pistes are still good and so empty, but the off-piste at altitude which is easily accessible is quite shagged due to the wind and being skied, though I suspect in the right terrain at 3,000m + there's always cold powder to be found, below 2,000m there is unless it is skied out, sweet corn to be skied.
Now to XC or Ski Tour this morning that is the tough decision to make 
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Poster: A snowHead
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| parigi wrote: |
Is there a handy guide somewhere to what people mean by the different designations like "northern", "western", "eastern" etc? I'm never quite sure and it seems I'm not the only one. Does "western and northern" mean, roughly, everywhere except the Dolomites and the Balkans? |
Very roughly:
As above, in terms of weather, it's which side of the alpine ridge that is important, less whether a resort is physically more north or south than another. Ie Chamonix is more southerly than the Dolomites, but is on the north and west side of the alpine ridge so benefits from totally different weather systems.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Weathercam, still something bubbling on the 00z GfS that I can see around 17th jan...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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06z GFS still suggesting fresh snow and colder weather across the Alps from around 17/18 January.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Ptspeak wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
| franga wrote: |
| As a side question ... when did artificial snowmaking become prevalent across most resorts (I know that methods and technology have and continue to evolve)? I know it's not necessarily a weather-related question but the fact that we are now able to produce man-made snow in such large quantities alleviates some of the concerns, worries etc expressed on this thread. I suspect it would be a much longer one too if snow-making hadn't been invented. |
Artificial-snow usage in the "big two" ski regions of North America and Western Europe has risen from roughly 1% of all resorts in the 1950s to 20% in the 1980s and 95% in 2020.
The past two Winter Olympics, in 2014 and 2018, have been run mostly on fake snow.
The length of real-snow seasons in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 20-30 days since the 1970s.
By 2050, many ski resorts, like Germany or New Hampshire, will probably operate entirely on fake snow. |
While I agree with the general message of a shorter, later ski season and more “extremes” of weather, referencing the Socchi and South Korean olympics as examples is a stretch. |
I'd add that the trend is less clear than is suggested.
The worst snow conditions in my skiing memory were in the late 80s when the W Alps had several very dry winters.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Woosh, your description is pretty good but your list seems to has got a bit mangled, I suspect what you mean is the Valais (partly, maybe better to say areas south of the Rhone Valley), Ticino and Graubünden lie to the south of the main ridge, the areas to the north fall into the northern alps? It is pretty broad brush anyway. The highest peaks generally are along a line from Mt Blanc to Monte Rosa but the Bernese Oberland and the ridge running west to Les Diablerets is arguably the dividing line as most of the weather will come from the west / north west.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| jedster wrote: |
I'd add that the trend is less clear than is suggested.
The worst snow conditions in my skiing memory were in the late 80s when the W Alps had several very dry winters. |
Yep - I drove out to the Tarentaise in early December with a few mates to get a job for the season '89-'90 I think. We were all offered jobs but only once it had snowed and the resorts were open. We ran out of money around Christmas before that happened.
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@munich_irish, you are correct. Was my intention to write it like you, but lost in poor english, he he 
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Weathercam, still something bubbling on the 00z GfS that I can see around 17th jan... |
Yes it's come back on Meteociel for the 17th a little, and now 18th going into 19th looking promising too, but could all change.
That said, on the basis of Sods Law which I think can be just as accurate as a long term forecast
I have a mate, who is a very good snowboarder coming out on the 18th for a week, and his mission is to learn to ski (he's booked Darren Turner every day for 3hrs), and he's deliberately not bringing his snowboard as he knows he might defer to that, so what's the betting it's going to dump every day
Further Edit
Just been looking a little more, and currently looks like another Retour D'Est, the image below is for Sauze D'Oulx and you can see how dark the colours are for the forecast accumulation in the Piedmont / Alpes Maritimes on the Monday, that's intense!
Though watch it all change.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
he's deliberately not bringing his snowboard
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I suspect that might change if a retour d'est is likely!
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So I've booked a guide for touring on Sat 18th and a XC lesson for Sun 19th in Le Praz so hopefully that helps guarantee a change in the weather!!
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