 Poster: A snowHead
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| nunex wrote: |
| What's your forecast for that week, still a bit early no? |
yup check on the 26th!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Quote. but still with a strong temperature gradient north to south across the Alps. This scenario would probably lead to rain below 2000m, but only a small shift south for the cold air would give widespread snow. We need to wait a few days to see how the evolution develops
The story of the winter so far
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nunex wrote: |
| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| TomBH wrote: |
@Onelasttime1!, thanks for your updates - I find them really clear and easy to understand for a non expert.
I'm off to the Dolomites mid next week - do you have any insight as to what might be happening there next week? Fully aware of all the usual caveats around it still being a week away! |
We have been going to the Dolomites every year since 2010 (excluding Covid) and really enjoyed it. Going to Zurs at end of Jan. The middle of next week is finely balanced as I hinted above, some models. keep it mild, whilst in others, the cold weather wins. It will probably be resolved by the weekend. |
I'll also be in Arlberg (St Anton) from 27 jan to 3 feb.
What's your forecast for that week, still a bit early no? |
We will be in Zuri for the same week. It's too early to say yet, but looking at the webcams, there is a lot of snow there!
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Yeah, there is. But its always nice to have a top up of new snow before the week starts... we all want to draw new lines in off piste powder 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Onelasttime1!, thanks! Was not sure if your forecast covered the Dolomites too - will keep watching this thread Have never skied there before so very much looking forward to it!
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| Astontech wrote: |
| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
There are some lucky people out there at the moment with near perfect conditions and probably not too busy. These weather conditions seem likely to persist through to the weekend. The weather pattern is changing with a major cut-off low developing over the Azores, and cold air spreading south from the Arctic over northern Europe during the weekend. Two factors will determine what happens over the Alps: firstly how the cut-off low evolves and how far south the Arctic air spreads. It seems that a portion of the cut-off low will later move into southern Europe bringing some very warm air with it. This warm air will engage with the cold air spreading south leading to the development of a significant low over Europe in a week's time, see the ECMWF forecast at 850hPa for next Thursday: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref
I've used the 850 hPA (about 1500m) chart as this shows the temperature of the airmass more clearly. There will obviously be variations in where this low will form and how active it will be, but there is the possibility of some very warm air over the Alps for a few days next week. if the low is a bit further south, we could have some significant snow in the Alps. Also some potentially snowy weather for the UK - an interesting one to watch. |
Will it be a case of warm air and now low = just warm
Or warm air and low = rain
Or does it mean that if the colder dogs further south, it will then bring ppm hence it will be snow |
It's very much uncertain at this lead time. This chart is the latest German forecast for the same time: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ico&var=2&run=12&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref. The evolution is very different, but still with a strong temperature gradient north to south across the Alps. This scenario would probably lead to rain below 2000m, but only a small shift south for the cold air would give widespread snow. We need to wait a few days to see how the evolution develops. |
Thanks, pretty nerve wracking!
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I think the 12z GFS/UKMO and GEM seems positive again from my untrained eye - it would be good to again get a more qualified opinion here.
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| Astontech wrote: |
| I think the 12z GFS/UKMO and GEM seems positive again from my untrained eye - it would be good to again get a more qualified opinion here. |
Most models seem to indicate a mild interlude for a couple of days later next week with rain below about 1750 - 2000m, though they do push the mild air south of the Alps by the weekend. It's too far ahead though to be overly confident.
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MeteoBlue are showing minus temperatures day and night for Corvara (Dolomites) for the next 7 days including today.
Does it appear likely than the Dolomites will escape the warm air discussed above?
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@Onelasttime1!, my interpretation is that most models have been indicating an 850hPa temp of at least +°6C during the main precipitation event next week (for the NW Alps), and that has been fairly consistent over the past several runs.
As you say, it's too far away to have confidence, but I think the signs are there for rain up to well above 2000m, maybe towards 2500m.
However at this stage the rain / snow doesn't look to be torrential, so while damaging for the lower resorts it shouldn't be a disaster, at least for those with robust snowmaking and a bulletproof base.
*Much* cooler in the east - shouldn't be any major worries for Austria or the Dolomites etc.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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This is the 10-day meteogram from GFS for Alta Badia (some lovely skiing there - I know it well): https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=76178&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1. Nothing really changes for 7 days, but after then there is considerable variability and uncertainty in the forecast between the main run in green and the rest of the ensembles. It looks like the mild air will reach the Dolomites by 19 Jan with some light precipitation, but what happens after that has low confidence. It will all depend on the nature of the low that develops over Europe around 18 Jan. If this is a weak system, the warm air will probably persist, if it's an active system, it is likely to push cold air south as it moves into Eastern Europe.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Astontech wrote: |
If so, how do snow chances stand in Avoriaz, and may I ask for some update opinions on how conditions will be for Skiing 19-22nd? |
It's still quite a long way out, and it's all very changeable at the moment, so whatever is said today might be out of date by tomorrow. It's looking fine at the moment, snow due on the 19th and with Avoriaz at 1800m, you can be comfortable that it'll be snow not rain. Then the temps drop significantly on the Sat and Sun.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| Astontech wrote: |
If so, how do snow chances stand in Avoriaz, and may I ask for some update opinions on how conditions will be for Skiing 19-22nd? |
It's still quite a long way out, and it's all very changeable at the moment, so whatever is said today might be out of date by tomorrow. It's looking fine at the moment, snow due on the 19th and with Avoriaz at 1800m, you can be comfortable that it'll be snow not rain. Then the temps drop significantly on the Sat and Sun. |
ECMWF and GEM models have radically different solutions for the end of Sat 20 Jan - GFS main run is somewhere between the two. You are right in that it is too far ahead to have much confidence in the weather at a specific location at that time.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Astontech, as others have said it’s going get warm (and probably wet) midweek but really - don’t worry about the snow on piste - it’ll be absolutely fine. A couple of days of rain isn’t going to make much difference to the pistes.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| Astontech wrote: |
If so, how do snow chances stand in Avoriaz, and may I ask for some update opinions on how conditions will be for Skiing 19-22nd? |
It's still quite a long way out, and it's all very changeable at the moment, so whatever is said today might be out of date by tomorrow. It's looking fine at the moment, snow due on the 19th and with Avoriaz at 1800m, you can be comfortable that it'll be snow not rain. Then the temps drop significantly on the Sat and Sun. |
Interesting as another comment above reads
‘my interpretation is that most models have been indicating an 850hPa temp of at least +°6C during the main precipitation event next week (for the NW Alps), and that has been fairly consistent over the past several runs.
As you say, it's too far away to have confidence, but I think the signs are there for rain up to well above 2000m, maybe towards 2500m.’
Which would mean rain for Avoriaz no?
Not being picky just trying to make sense of everybody’s valuable input
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| In reality, you've got to wait till we're only 3-4 days out (and hope the models start to agree) before you can really read anything into it. |
Indeed, and because of that the real trick is to not look at the weather maps before the start of your vacation.
... truth be told: I haven't mastered that trick yet 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@EvieTee, my take on this is you ain't going to cancel your holiday for a days rain, maybe a pub day, but still on holiday!! The weather always does its best to completely flummox the best of forecasters, it is what it is!
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Forecasts changing every few hours
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When I look at Bergfex App for Les Arcs, it see it showing the wind picking up above 60km/h next week, but it’s the only app showing this (that I can see anyway). Anyone able to educate me on whether or not the wind is likely to be an issue in terms of lift access etc next week please? Thanks
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Bramble wrote: |
| When I look at Bergfex App for Les Arcs, it see it showing the wind picking up above 60km/h next week, but it’s the only app showing this (that I can see anyway). Anyone able to educate me on whether or not the wind is likely to be an issue in terms of lift access etc next week please? Thanks |
It's quite possible to get 60 km per hour. Look at this GFS forecast for about 10000 feet over France later next week: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=27&time=156&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6. The yellow to green boundary is about 30 knots which is about 60 km per hour. Given the varied topography over the Alps, you will get locations where the local wind speed will vary markedly from what is forecast in the free atmosphere. How that will affect the lifts is another matter.
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| Skiwi222 wrote: |
| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| In reality, you've got to wait till we're only 3-4 days out (and hope the models start to agree) before you can really read anything into it. |
Indeed, and because of that the real trick is to not look at the weather maps before the start of your vacation.
... truth be told: I haven't mastered that trick yet |
I tell myself this every year
Never manage it
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @EvieTee, my take on this is you ain't going to cancel your holiday for a days rain, maybe a pub day, but still on holiday!! The weather always does its best to completely flummox the best of forecasters, it is what it is! |
This is true.
Maybe half a day getting wet and the other half in the pub.
Tbh it’s more my kids in ski school I’m thinking of.
Character building 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| EvieTee wrote: |
| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| Astontech wrote: |
If so, how do snow chances stand in Avoriaz, and may I ask for some update opinions on how conditions will be for Skiing 19-22nd? |
It's still quite a long way out, and it's all very changeable at the moment, so whatever is said today might be out of date by tomorrow. It's looking fine at the moment, snow due on the 19th and with Avoriaz at 1800m, you can be comfortable that it'll be snow not rain. Then the temps drop significantly on the Sat and Sun. |
Interesting as another comment above reads
‘my interpretation is that most models have been indicating an 850hPa temp of at least +°6C during the main precipitation event next week (for the NW Alps), and that has been fairly consistent over the past several runs.
As you say, it's too far away to have confidence, but I think the signs are there for rain up to well above 2000m, maybe towards 2500m.’
Which would mean rain for Avoriaz no?
Not being picky just trying to make sense of everybody’s valuable input |
Sorry for the massive in-line quote, but wasn't easy to shorten without losing context.
@EvieTee, that was my comment re. rain up to 2000-2500m, and agree that rain at Avoriaz (resort level) currently looks likely.
To other posters pointing out that it's uncertain at this stage : yes, the forecast is changing from run to run and between models, but there is nevertheless a reasonable consensus (among the models) on rain to high altitudes in the NW Alps midweek next week. That has continued to be the case on the model output since my last post.
May well be a snow-rain-(snow?) event at many levels, as colder air is in place beforehand. Which is better than an event which is rain all the way through.
I'm also not convinced about the scale of the drop in temperatures following those few days, at least for the lowest places such as Morzine / Morillon etc. But let's wait and see.
To summarise - I think it's a bad set of charts for low or mid altitude ski areas in the French / W. Swiss Alps, with the main saving grace being that precipitation currently looks moderate rather than torrential.
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@denfinella, I think there is also a bit of confusion over what dates people are talking about. I was originally answering the question on Avoriaz from @Astontech for the 19th-22nd, which, while still quite a few days out, looks okay at resort level currently.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Handy Turnip, ah, yes, that makes more sense!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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As predicted, snow and sun this week.
Bluebird and 6-12in pow today.
Tan is at Hollywood Level 4 
Sun for the next 4-5 days.
Sprinkle of snow after that.
Enjoy while it lasts.
Rain probably coming at low levels during week of Mon 22 Jan.
Deepest winter for the European Alps -- and still the weather talk is of rain.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| This is the 10-day meteogram from GFS for Alta Badia (some lovely skiing there - I know it well): https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=76178&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1. Nothing really changes for 7 days, but after then there is considerable variability and uncertainty in the forecast between the main run in green and the rest of the ensembles. It looks like the mild air will reach the Dolomites by 19 Jan with some light precipitation, but what happens after that has low confidence. It will all depend on the nature of the low that develops over Europe around 18 Jan. If this is a weak system, the warm air will probably persist, if it's an active system, it is likely to push cold air south as it moves into Eastern Europe. |
Many thanks.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Anyone got a rough idea on the weather of the week 15/01- 20/01, looking to book a last minute trip. I’ve seen on a few forecasts the 15th&16th is sunny 17th&18th rain and 19th&20th light snow. Just wanted to see how likely rain is or heavy snow. Obviously would like a sunny week with good visibility!! Appreciate it may change just looking for rough idea. Will be going to Courchevel.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@polo, have you got any ideas for the 15/01-20/01 in 3 valleys/Courchevel
- see my most recent question on here, any ideas would be appreciated
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@Joehdhchdhd, your summary seeems about right.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yes seems consistent on a few different forecasts, just wondering how likely that is to change really
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@Joehdhchdhd, If you scroll the last 30 or so posts you’ll see the current situation is very complicated and really is still hard to predict but there’s certainty there’s going to be some changeable weather, Sun then precipitation either snow or rain depending what height your at ,there’s a wide range in Courchevel . What the rain/snow level is , how heavy and what days is still in the lap of the gods .
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And to add whatever is being predicted now will change by Monday and even then it’s the mountains so it will still surprise
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| Quote: |
how heavy and what days is still in the lap of the gods .
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....and however good @polo is I am pretty sure he is not a god
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looking at the 0z runs there seems to be again, a trend in a positive direction.
The 850s aren’t so warm on Wednesday since the lower 850s push further south Tuesday, but still not ideal, especially for lower resorts in the west.
From Thursday, the trend seems to be that colder uppers from the N/NW will flood back in following the low pressure system, possibility of snow to lower levels on Thursday due to this.
Welcome any comments on this, I am about 4 years out of practice.
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@Astontech, what area are you looking at?
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FAQ
