 Poster: A snowHead
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@jimmybog, it is a bit transient (I picked the "best" time) but it is fairly heavy and to low levels (Verona!). The latest run shows the heaviest snow a bit further east more the Julian alps than the Dolomites. Whatever the detail it does look (it is only a few days time) as if the Dolomites will get a reasonable fall of snow which has not been common in recent seasons
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I'm intrigued by those Slovenian resorts and Sella Nevea, but alas can't get a workable flight near them. Would definitely be the time to ski them as they are low resorts so a snow bomb that big to that low down with low temps to follow would be as good as it could ever get (lift closures excepted).
Will be watching the Dolomites predictions with interest. Hard to look past France in terms of numbers but parts of Switzerland and Austria also due to get reasonable amounts.
Brilliant to see such widespread snow after all the doom images!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The forecast sites seem to have greatly reduced the predicted snow for the 3vs, Chamonix etc. I know this is very common from anxiously watching the forecasts - is this evidenced by recent runs of the forecast? Or are we still expecting very heavy neige in France too?
Cheers!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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From my reading France is due to get the heaviest and most prolonged. Numbers will go up and down with the runs but presume that trend will remain accurate to middle of next week at least?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Music to my ears before work, merci!
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As above. Everything us looking great.
The chart below (Wed midnight) shows low heights, temps will be lower at lower altitude, low 850 temps, and most importantly lots of instability. The wavy isobars and variety if small low pressures will produce snow galore. It is almost impossible to predict exactly where the heaviest snow will be never mind how much. But there will be snow over the majority of the alps to fairly low levels. The models and forecast sites might get it about right 24 hours out but expect big changes in predictions in the next few days.
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Thanks guys- exciting news!
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A wee look beyond next weeks "super trough" suggests that a bit of energy and lower heights will be left in the med with heights building back over the top. This should lead to a cool slack continental flow which should allow cold settled conditions in the mountains allowing the lucky ones to enjoy the new snow. Warmer with proper high pressure looking likely for the UK.
ECM probably best case scenario at day 10. It's well know for over amplifying though!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I love this thread. Such an intoxicating mixture of physics and undisguised naked hope.
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Hi again
So they lowered snow estimates for next week and from next Friday onwards only clear sky. I see some days in the following week, when I will be in Chamonix, with 1celsius posiitive.
Should I be worried that snow cover will suffer?
Thankis
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@RonWeltyPT, look….  off.
People here only give interpretations from raw data
Tons of websites use the same raw data. Some are clickbait. Actually most are click bate.
Tip - go by what you see. Divide by 10. Anything above is a win. Otherwise its Par. Par for the course. 10cm = 2cm on the slope is about the norm.
No snow gods here. Pick a new religion. Or pick science. Science = 48-72 hrs
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@RonWeltyPT, well, snow cover certainly won't suffer if the maximum temperature is 1°C. Settled weather and dry air is great for preserving the snow that has already fallen, even if it's a few degrees above freezing.
Re. the perception of forecast snowfall amounts decreasing - I think this is a common trap to fall into. People remember the highest figures more clearly than the lower ones, so when the final amount is (often) in between the two, it seems disappointing.
For example, forecasts over a week leading up to a snowfall might be 0cm, 10cm, 50cm, 30cm, 60cm, 20cm, 40cm... then when 30cm falls, it is less than the 60cm you got excited about... but in fact it's roughly in the middle of the preceding forecasts.
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@RonWeltyPT,
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Should I be worried
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No.
(Who are "they"?)
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You know it makes sense.
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A Detailed forecast this morning from Meteo Tarentaise for the next few days , remember this is for the Tarentaise but I presume it will be similar for the Haute Savoie and Beaufontain France, as usual try and read through the translation .
 SITUATION, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FOR YOUR WINTER EPISODE COMING...
elleAs announced for several days, we will have a cold and disturbed period, it will be done in several phases with snow in the medium mountains, low altitude and to the bottom of the valley before a net reinforcement of the cold coming from the East ...
⏺CURRENT SITUATION:
We have low pressures over all of Northern Europe as well as the entire North Atlantic, and an anticyclone is positioned over the Azores, leaving free field for depression over the Atlantic.
⏺ SITUATION TO COME:
The anticyclone will remain anchored over the Acores and low pressures will continue to affect us through the first part of the week, with even depressed hearts that could form along our Atlantic shores, and gave strong co oops of wind.
Then starting mid-week, and second part of the week, the Acores anticyclone driven by depressions near America will shift off its eastern flank, and move closer to Western Europe.
Therefore, the low pressures should leave the country moving over Central and Southern Europe, while reforming depressive holes over Italy, Gulf of Geneva, sending us back a cold eastern flow.
TODAY:
Precipitation is already present this morning, it arrived around 03/04h depending on sectors, it's snowing right now from 1400/1600m depending on sectors.
Rainfall is expected to last until the late afternoon, 18/7h.
It will snow mid day at 1500/1600m until 12/13h before a sharp tipping around 14/15h depending on sectors.
It will snow at 4pm around 700/800m then 400/500m high at the end of disruption.
Rainfall stop until tomorrow morning.
We are waiting, 5cm to 1200/1300m, 10cm above 1600/1800m height, 15cm above 2000m.
Strong winds this morning and should be strong much of the day mainly at altitude with gusts up to 70/90km/h over exposed areas.
TOMORROW:
Rainfall will resume in the first part of the morning around 09/10 am depending on sectors and is spreading everywhere, and, should concern us throughout the day with varying intensity depending on periods of the day.
Globally, precipitation increases during the day and becomes moderate in the afternoon.
The wind continues to be strong especially in the afternoon with gusts of 40/60km/h in the valley and 75/90km/h in elevation, and 100/120km/h on the peaks and ridges exposed to W/NW winds.
Regarding the snowfall limit, it is at the arrival of precipitation at a height of 700m then 600/700m until during the afternoon and decreases in the second part of the afternoon to 500m then 400m in the evening and even up to 300m in the first part of night.
Rainfall stops in the second part of the night from Monday to Tuesday.
Expected cumulus are in the order of 25cm above 1800m, locally 30cm, 20cm above 1600m, locally more, 10/15cm above 800m, and possible 5/7cm from 500m.
TUESDAY :
The sky will remain well clogged throughout the day with precipitation still present throughout the day with varying intensities depending on the time of the day.
Snow will reach 500/600m in the first part of the day and may rise to 700m in the second part of the day.
We expect about ten cm above 800/1000m and 15cm above 1200m, locally 20cm above 1800/2000m.
Cold and light snow
WEDNESDAY:
This should be the last busy day with more precipitation should concern us all day.
It will snow 300m in the morning, 400/500m in the afternoon.
Still some doubts about the intensity and cumulus.
But the average would be around 5/10cm above 700/800m, locally 15cm above 1200m.
This is the overall situation ahead of us, I will be back depending on the evolution of the forecasts on the tracks that will be launched in the next few days.
Cold is expected to leave behind with -15C possible in station, near -20C over our peaks and locally near -10C in the valley.
Have a good day and a good week everyone!
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
⬇Map from the ARPEGE model showing the possible cumulus, not to be taken at the foot of the letter (Meteociel)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The depressed hearts that could form along our Atlantic shores, very poetic of google. Presumably those reading the forum back home who can't get out to enjoy it.
The wind is going to be tricky, Henri was right to suggest trees I think.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| RonWeltyPT wrote: |
Hi again
So they lowered snow estimates for next week and from next Friday onwards only clear sky. I see some days in the following week, when I will be in Chamonix, with 1celsius posiitive.
Should I be worried that snow cover will suffer?
Thankis |
No need to worry, could be the best week of the season in the Alps so far!
Who's "they" and what area/resort/part of the world are "they" referring to?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Currently in Liechtenstein and the snow here is falling down to around 1000 meters. Earlier this morning in Malbun (1,600m) the temperature reading was 4-6C
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@südtirolistdeutsch, this is all going to plan then, muhahahahaha... [COUGH]
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@Gored, @hd, completely uncalled for (and inaccurate) rudeness there to a new poster. 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| pam w wrote: |
| @Gored, @hd, completely uncalled for (and inaccurate) rudeness there to a new poster. |
Rudeness? Where?
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Now in St. Anton. It’s snowing very heavily
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@dave_3, read the posts at 23.42 (telling him to "  off") and at 1032 suggesting he might like to stay home and wet the bed, with a gratuitous pic of a packet of Pampers.
I call those rude, in response to a query about weather conditions and impact on snow cover. Not a well informed query, admittedly, but similar to countless others and not warranting such unpleasant responses.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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None that I can see. Sadly some people just have to get busy imposing their micro-standards management on others so..... 
On the plus side, yay, snow!
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@pam w, +1
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You know it makes sense.
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| denfinella wrote: |
| @pam w, +1 |
Ditto agree with Pam W.
Not expecting anything like that on Snowheads
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Let's all focus on the joyous arrival of snow
Quick q - la thuile showing high up the list of projected snowfalls, as is courmayeur, but little else in Aosta showing anywhere near as much
Why would this be? Are they both not on the eastern side of the main alpine ridge?
Seems strange that some areas in the same valleys would get loads and others not though this is often the case on the forecast. Appreciate there are large mountain ridges between.
Just wondering as thinking of going to la thuile early next week as a result of forecast. Any fear the models are misinterpreting the nuance of the valley, and / or the computer is really giving us the numbers for the linked resort of la rosiere on the other side of ridge?
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Poster: A snowHead
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I've driven through both the Mont Blanc and Fréjus tunnels a few times, and often it's chalk and cheese. Once on a VERY snowy motorway, with the outside lane deep in snow, to the Frejus tunnel and out into bone dry country the other side - dry as far as the eye could see, and sipping a glass of wine on a sunny terrace in Genoa by the end of the day, still in my salopettes after an early start down a French mountainside behind a snowplough. Bizarre.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| pam w wrote: |
@dave_3, read the posts at 23.42 (telling him to " off") and at 1032 suggesting he might like to stay home and wet the bed, with a gratuitous pic of a packet of Pampers.
I call those rude, in response to a query about weather conditions and impact on snow cover. Not a well informed query, admittedly, but similar to countless others and not warranting such unpleasant responses. |
Of course its not well informed.
I’m not a weatherman.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
Of course its not well informed.
I’m not a weatherman.
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It could have been better informed, @RonWeltyPT, if you'd read back a few pages on this thread and similar ones focussing specifically on Chamonix. I've learnt a huge amount from the "keen amateurs" who post on this and similar threads about how to look at the weather models (which are of course, @Gored, not exactly "raw data") and about their limitations and the limitations of sites like "snow forecast" which just turn one of the possible outcomes on one of the models into what look like firm predictions, with no warnings about confidence levels. What does annoy people is when somebody says "don't baffle me with all that bullshit hedged round with caveats, just tell me what the snow conditions will be in resort X in Y days time".
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@8611, key point is the wind direction (northwest). La Thuile and Courmayeur will get spillover from the French side (La Rosiere / Chamonix). The French side is right in the firing line for heavy snowfall so a significant amount should make it (just) across the ridge, but amounts will drop off quickly further beyond the Alpine ridge (i.e. further down the Aosta valley).
Around Mont Blanc / Chamonix / Courmayeur the main ridge runs southwest-northeast (i.e. perpendicular to the direction snow is arriving from), so storms from the NW get pressed against the ridge, intensifying the snowfall.
Zermatt has a more inner-alpine position and is further east than e.g. Chamonix so is less exposed to NW winds. Less snow, so even less getting across to Cervinia. Plus the Alpine ridge runs more east-west here, so much of the precipitation may "slide past" on the northern side of the ridge.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@denfinella, that makes a lot of sense thanks very much. I'm now off to read your trip reports to further whet my appetite!
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@8611, We’ll defined @denfinella, But also as the low spins into the gulf of Genoa and across Italy I suspect La Thuille and Courmayeur will then pick more snowfall coming up from the south
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@Rob Mackley, yep, although it currently looks like that Mediterranean low will deliver the most snow further east - Slovenia, southern Austria and Dolomites?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@BobinCH, lovely picture.
Stefan has very good timing...he is out next weekend.
Apologies to the rest of the snowHeads for that personal message!
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Some exceptionally heavy snow in the Julian Alps tonight - near the triple border of Slovenia, Italy and Austria. Here's are the GFS ensembles for Kranjska Gora (Slovenia):
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FAQ
