Here's a look at how Nov and Dec turned out. AO was -ve in Nov, and mixed in Dec (first half +ve, then -ve). Can see the southerly jet in Nov, which also brought lots of snow to the west. Then in Dec the pattern was flatter, +NAO signature, lots of precipitation for west and northern alps, while snowline was often relatively low at 1300-1400m in NW.
Here's the 8-10 day mean into mid Jan. Can see the high over europe is weakening a little, and moving slowly SE on GFS or NE on ECM (left).
If Scandi heights build, would then need to see signs of undercutting, with low pressure in the med for example. Otherwise a Scandi high isn't much use if it's just part of a large block extending down to the alps (as currently modelled). I imagine it's less likely this time of year for a Scandi high to get far enough north, given the strength of PV in Jan. Whereas if the GFS pattern is to evolve then further into Jan might look a bit like mid Dec (mild westerly flow, snowline lottery).
Below is GFS forecast for 10hpa (strat) zonal winds, still looking at a very strong burst into mid Jan, but then quickly weakening again....so signs of some disruption to come post mid month....but too far away to believe.
I read a few comments about the strat PV elongating and moving closer to Siberia. At the moment it's coupled to the trop, with deep lows stuck over Greenland (hit record cold -66c yday). Iceland getting hammered and Scotland also has some nice snow totals showing up.
So after all that blah blah....nothing particularly good is showing up yet for the alps, even in FI....some small positives. Think we will see better outcomes showing up pretty soon....based on not much more than a hunch, and half full glass of red.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
This is snowfall out to 13 Jan on 12z GFS.
Still suggesting some snow around 10 January, but restricted to the western end of the Alps.
There will also be snow in western Scotland, but high winds and fluctuating snow line is not going to help much.
I remember I think 2 years ago when there were poor conditions in europe and morris said the best conditions were in greece. I wonder is it a feature of high pressure over the alps that they get it instead.
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18z GFS shifts the snowfall at the end of the week a little more to the east.
Still plenty of time for it to shift back and forth. But at present it looks pretty light either way.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
18z GFS shifts the snowfall at the end of the week a little more to the east.
Still plenty of time for it to shift back and forth. But at present it looks pretty light either way.
Am I reading this map right? That the freezing level in Munich will be higher than the Rhineland?
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@südtirolistdeutsch, that’s not that uncommon if cold weather is pushing down from the north.
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Still perfect piste skiing conditions
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The general picture in today’s models seem to strenghten the situation. The high seems to last until 20th of January. A continental high that settle during the winter time can be very hard to break up.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
BobinCH wrote:
Still perfect piste skiing conditions
Perfect on piste, perfect off piste, perfect for just sitting in a cafe and soaking up the rays - we had about 5-10cm of fresh snow on Friday night so there was powder for those who wanted and spring for those who didn't. Ok in the Isere not really much snow below 1600 meters.
Here the tot searches for a line down
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
flicky wrote:
bobmcstuff wrote:
In Bardonecchia 12-19th and been looking at the forecasts, looks very warm next week with freezing levels above the summits quite consistently all week. Then past the 10th it's obviously a lot less predictable but the GFS on wetterzentrale shows temperatures back nearer seasonal averages and potentially quite a bit of snow at various points... kinda the opposite of what we want, if it happens!
They seem to have some kind of base, and in any case we've booked and paid now so we'll get what we get. But kind of frustrating for my first proper ski holiday since 2015
I've been skiing in Bardonecchia all this week, and the forecast next week doesn't look all that different to this week. Sunny and freeze-thaw temps. Forgive the brief diversion from weather to snow reports, but pistes are freezing overnight with hard snow morning and softening during the day. Most of the main area is shady, so never gets too soft - make sure you have sharp edges. Best snow is on the quietest slopes, so runs from top on Colomion (accessible only by poma) and the stangely little skied blue, Biancaneve. Or stick close to the edges of the pistes. Off-piste is more like piste where skied a lot, and frozen crust elsewhere (best avoided). There is a decent base.
Just to say thank you for this. I did look for a Bardonecchia thread but couldn't see one... I guess it's close to Sestriere and Sauze d'Oulx, but you never really know what it's going to be like without asking someone who's been there.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looks good @davidof, have you been near to Chamrousse yet? Heading there end of March, so not at all concerned, just interested in how the early season is looking. Cheers
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@bobmcstuff, if the weather stays like this, which is strong possibility then you can also ski the S facing slopes of the Jafferau sector which is part of Bardonecchia and should be great in the morning.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Yr.no, Bergfex and Wepowder now jumping on board the GFS bandwagon for 5-10cm in the north and western alps on Thursday night into Friday #clutching
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
No significant Changes in the models from yday to today. Might see some snow on 10th of January, probably northwestern Alps. Onwards it will be very little precipitatition all over the Alps for many days. Good agreement between the EC and GFS. AO index is really strong at the moment and the forecast is for this to last. The Polar vortex is also very strong and no sign of a stratospheric warming. All points to a continuation of the present weather system to last towards the end of January, something EC monthly also points towards.
A wild guess would be to see the big high pressure move East around 23 to 27 and some heavy snowfall in the last days of Jan-beginning of feb.
We had more snow than expected in places here over the weekend. Nordkette had a legit 40+cms on Sunday morning (but was schralped after 1 run). Carefully chosen slopes in other zones still held 5-10cms of wind-buffed powder too.
Both from Sunday:
Nordkette:
Behind Axamer Lizum:
More snow would be good, but it's a lot better than you might think! (Though you do need to think to find the good snow)
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 7-01-20 11:23; edited 1 time in total
@clarky999, very nice. Hope you are enjoying the sunshine!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Down South we had some strong winds at altitude which trashed much of the remaining cold snow (powder) of NW/N/NE slopes, so there's no chance of us finding anything like in the pics above, off-piste, that is.
Yesterday we ski-toured from a village one km along from me at 1425m and we pretty well climbed and skied all the way.
We didn't leave till 11:30 as the sun needs to cook the snow well and then we skied S/SE'ly slopes up high and then as we came lower down we could ski a more NW'ly aspect which had cooked well.
What was cold snow ten days ago up high is now in the process of transforming to Spring Snow but it a little lumpy and technical to ski as you can see at the start if the vid below, but there was no stopping one of my dogs chasing after me.
There is still no sign of anything on the horizon and looks like we'll have to make do with runs off the back, which in itself is not too bad as we still have snow lower down in the valleys which we did not have last year.
@Woosh, things can change much quicker than the models suggest......even though there's near unanimous agreement across medium range models CFS, ECM and GFS extended anomalies, EC46 etc for high pressure dominating into end of Jan / early Feb over central and NE europe. Am not buying it.
Zonal winds forecast continues to plunge back to climate average around the 20th. And there seems to be a steady draining of heights from central europe.
Can always rely on the 06 GFS for drama....FL's next monday 13th
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SHAP wrote:
Looks good @davidof, have you been near to Chamrousse yet? Heading there end of March, so not at all concerned, just interested in how the early season is looking. Cheers
I haven't been to Chamrousse since early December but it is high and after the foehn we had more snow and it has remained cold so the anti-cyclone hasn't affected the conditions too much. This photo of the Olympic Black from the 5th Jan. I'd say a good start to the season. Les 7 Laux was excellent on the 1st Jan but pistes can be a bit hard for some. Looking ahead we should see a few flakes on Friday - for anyone who can hit the OP either Friday or Saturday (11 Jan) early there may be a few cm of fresh like last weekend. Then return to anticyclone for Grenoble, probably with more inversion layers although things are clear and sunny today.
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Scotland. Helpful amounts of snow, to those who like that kind of thing.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
davidof wrote:
SHAP wrote:
Looks good @davidof, have you been near to Chamrousse yet? Heading there end of March, so not at all concerned, just interested in how the early season is looking. Cheers
I haven't been to Chamrousse since early December but it is high and after the foehn we had more snow and it has remained cold so the anti-cyclone hasn't affected the conditions too much. This photo of the Olympic Black from the 5th Jan. I'd say a good start to the season. Les 7 Laux was excellent on the 1st Jan but pistes can be a bit hard for some. Looking ahead we should see a few flakes on Friday - for anyone who can hit the OP either Friday or Saturday (11 Jan) early there may be a few cm of fresh like last weekend. Then return to anticyclone for Grenoble, probably with more inversion layers although things are clear and sunny today.
Brilliant, thanks. I'll avoid clogging this thread with more questions like this, but much appreciate your time.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
06Z pretty much nixes the snow 9-10th for the western alps. Been decreasing steadily each run...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Ridging to be potentially maintained over the Alps, with periods of zonal weather, favouring the Northern Alps a bit in the long term.
The Southern Alps might have a better chance further into February.
@drporat, more in that it starts to suggest a possible shift in pattern in the second half of the run. I don’t see much indication of snow for the Arlberg over that period.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@nozawaonsen, thanks for the fast response.
It seems reasonable, and it's still gonna be an amazing ski week, whatever it will bring.
In general terms, us 2-3 trip per-season holidaymakers should count ourselves lucky that both November and December brought decent snowfall in many parts of the Alps. Even a 10-20 cm fall should have a very positive impact in many (particularly high) resorts. But it feels such an oddly warm month at home, doesn’t it?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@franga, these are the UK mean temperature and rainfall anomalies for December 2019 if you are interested.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@nozawaonsen, Interesting.
Warmer and wetter winter on the west coast and highland perthshire areas of Scotland = mega midge hatch later in the year !
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, interesting stuff ... it feels a lot warmer than only a +0.5 / +1.5C deviation from the 20 year average.
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If (if) 06z validates then you’d have fresh snow across the northern Alps on 17 and 19 January. Obviously a big if. But perhaps worth keeping an eye out to see if it starts picking up any support...
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