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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@zzz saw that on the other thread, very sad and unfortunate.

The weather outlook I'm seeing is for calm conditions going forward.
UKMO on the 9th....normally high pressure above Alaska pushes the vortex enough over our side to drop low pressure into europe, but this time we have the counter force of Scandi high pressure.
Note out in the atlantic are the remnants of the massive storm about to slam into east coast of US 4-5th Jan.


Further out GFS Op and ECM Op at t+240. The ensembles, clusters and anomalies all point to europe being surrounded by high pressure for a while: across the NE atlantic, scandinavia, eastern europe, south of Italy etc.
Interesting that NAO is set to go very positive mid month, as can be seen from the low pressure over Iceland relative to the high pressure over Azores. Yet, we have mid lattitude blocking instead of a roaring atlantic (ie cold and dry instead of the more expected wet and mild)

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person


ECM 12z also building pressure up around Scandinavia. If that run played out it would start to take things colder across Europe from around 10 January.

Before that low pressure from the Mediterranean building this weekend which should be interesting for the southern side of the Alps Sunday into Monday with potential for considerable snowfall in places.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
There are actually people sitting in this chair lift...

https://www.facebook.com/Wetterwarnung/videos/1603618316397807/

Am sure there was someone this morning saying the forecasts were over egging it...
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@nozawaonsen, Shocked Shocked Shocked
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Alas already raining here at 1500m... avi 4 in Verbier so looks like they’ll open up to Chaux express at 2400m but it’s going to be a wet one ☔️
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Confined to barracks in Tignes. Avi 5/5, Radio telling folks to stop in building they are in Shocked
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
So another tricky day to come For the NW Alps with very heavy snow and rain forecast.

For the south side worth watching out for Sunday into Monday, Piedmont in particular could see some very heavy snowfall.

Looking further out there is a cooling trend as pressure builds to the NE before things look like becoming more mobile again with GFS and ECM to some extent letting the Atlantic back in in FI.
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@chocksaway, good if you happen to be in the bar, bad if you are in a portaloo.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
There are actually people sitting in this chair lift...

https://www.facebook.com/Wetterwarnung/videos/1603618316397807/

Am sure there was someone this morning saying the forecasts were over egging it...


I wish that I hadn't watched that Shocked
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Zermatt village getting pounded. Higher webcams show nothing but snow on the lenses.
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@nozawaonsen, Very Happy Luckily I am in a nice 3 bed with 2 fridges, a freezer and 2 good mates and a few crates of beer, a wine cellar and a cupboard full of malts so live is pretty rosy. Thanks!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bergfex for Obergurgl showing the snowline topping out at 1570m tomorrow. Well below village height which also now claims 114cm level snow. 245cm at Hochgurgl. Going by SCGB historical data way above average. Turning nicely colder next week.

https://www.bergfex.com/obergurgl-hochgurgl/wetter/prognose/

E&G hotel webcam looks quite snowy. Avalanche fence in the foreground is almost buried.

http://webcam.edelweiss-gurgl.com
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Was the rain at village levels not quite as bad as predicted this morning in NW alps? The webcams don't look too bad (snow still on trees/cars etc.).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
SWEET JESUS!!! Zermatt in the last 24hrs? Must be drifting near the measuring station no?

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, still snow at many levels during the night, but most of the rain is (I think) forecast during daylight hours. It might not look as good by this evening, or tomorrow morning even.
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Les Saisies is not avalanche territory but our road to the village is effectively closed because of avvy risk. No busses running. Unprecedented. Another fall of very claggy snow overnight followed by massive rain. Just as forecast.
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BobinCH wrote:
SWEET JESUS!!! Zermatt in the last 24hrs? Must be drifting near the measuring station no?



The whole area has been closed for the second day running. Plus there was an avalanche across the trainline down the valley to Visp last night and they can’t get it reopened because of further avalanche risk. It is going to be incredible when they can get the ski area open up again.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well I've been up the hill at lunchtime to 2,400 and it's nigh on impossible to ski even on the piste!

Off piste looks superb but you just come to a grinding halt.

Not at all good for the knees.

That's another day when I've meant to be with a guide and it's been called off, he came up here for breakfast instead and we had a nag. That's four days so far this season!

He was stopping off at Montgenevre on the way back to Turin to see what it's like (he'll do a bit of speed skinning) but I just think tomorrow will be another non starter as even with a clear night the moisture will not get sucked out enough to make any real difference.

Sounds like we've missed out on the real heavy rain though, at least we have white stuff, but it's more like concrete.

Just have to be optimistic and think how epic Spring ski touring will be Cool
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Weathercam, does the 'concrete' that's fallen now have any benefit later in the season? Assuming it helps build a base, what use is that base if it's not skiable? I'm assuming it gets transformed with time. (Trying to learn about these things).
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Such bad rain at high levels in peak-cold season is a sign global warming has not gone away.
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@J2R, it will create a very deep snow pack, so the pistes will last all the season hopefully without a major thaw, which can happen.

However with the busy Feb holiday period the pistes could still be boiler plate. The real advantages on piste is that there will be excellent cover down into resort.

Off piste is similar in that the deep snow pack will enable skiing down to lower levels and cover up tree stumps and boulders etc

Come Spring we should still have excellent snow cover and that will make for some great Spring snow conditions off piste.
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Whitey put a sock in it,..............................................
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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robboj - been to Obergurgl last 3 years and that is way more snow than I've seen before...

I think Untergurgl is about 1500ish...

Assume you've read the Facebook SCGB post. Seems one of the best places right now - high enough to have avoided rain and sheltered a little from the winds
=======================================================

Snow: Powder everywhere

Weather: snow, snow and more snow

Wow! What a fantastic day. At first we thought that we might not even ski today. We went up the Feskogel and found powder on the pistes. A few runs to the mid station of the Rosskar and twice down to the bottom where we had some brilliant snow.

Trees in the afternoon where, at one point, I had powder spraying over my head.

We finished off with a bit of an adventure. The Steinmann closed without prior warning so we had to ski down the road below David's.

One of the best day's skiing I've had for a long time.
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Nothing unusual to have rain at high levels ( plus 2000) at this time of year in the Alps . Remember New Year 2001 was a wash out ! and skiing powder on top of a rain crust at 2750m in Jan 2007 .
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Rob Mackley wrote:
Nothing unusual to have rain at high levels ( plus 2000m) at this time of year in the Alps . Remember New Year 2001 was a wash out ! and skiing powder on top of a rain crust at 2750m in Jan 2007 .
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@Rob Mackley, +1

Slightly unusual to have quite SO MUCH precip but rather good that so much fell as snow before the rain.
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@under a new name, Agreed , the amount of precipitation has been unique , since Tuesday afternoon we’ve had two different falls of 30 cms of Snow and two bouts of rain adding up to possibly 10cm here at 1550m , Very intrigued to know how much has fallen up top
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@Rob Mackley, have the lifts been running in Ste Foy or same as most other resorts? Be very interested to know what conditions are like if you make it up tomorrow as we’re out on 13th (although we haven’t booked accommodation yet so have options).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, only First lift today was open today .

There is so much snow the resort is set for the season . On Tuesday morning i skied down to the village for lunch I’d say that even down there there’s a base of 50cms plus . Once this weather episode is over we will have a freeze at resort level and new snow 0n top of the impressive base .

Nothing to worry about .
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Normally I would never mention a chart 300+ hours away, but that GFS 12z is such a great set up Jan 16-20th, and it is somewhat supported by ECM clusters (35%).
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
buchanan101 wrote:
robboj - been to Obergurgl last 3 years and that is way more snow than I've seen before...

I think Untergurgl is about 1500ish...

Assume you've read the Facebook SCGB post. Seems one of the best places right now - high enough to have avoided rain and sheltered a little from the winds
=======================================================

Snow: Powder everywhere

Weather: snow, snow and more snow

Wow! What a fantastic day. At first we thought that we might not even ski today. We went up the Feskogel and found powder on the pistes. A few runs to the mid station of the Rosskar and twice down to the bottom where we had some brilliant snow.

Trees in the afternoon where, at one point, I had powder spraying over my head.

We finished off with a bit of an adventure. The Steinmann closed without prior warning so we had to ski down the road below David's.

One of the best day's skiing I've had for a long time.


Likewise was there in Jan 15 & 16 and whilst what was there was great it was nothing compared to this. Off there again on 27/1 and can't wait.
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langball wrote:
Normally I would never mention a chart 300+ hours away, but that GFS 12z is such a great set up Jan 16-20th, and it is somewhat supported by ECM clusters (35%).




You mean this?
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@sussexmartlet, if there's a better looking chart out there, then I haven't seen it yet. There is hardly any chance that it will verify like that, more of a case study in what a massive northern stau? would look like. The GFS is prone to overstating the atlantic flow, and it's also poor at handling blocking over Scandinavia, but if it's on the right track, then the zonal atlantic flow overpowers the previous high pressure block there and fills it in with a big purple lobe of vortex. Would be snowy.
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Bergfex was spot on today in Söll (altitude just 703m), forecasting snow in resort until 4pm. The pessimistic snowforecast.com had it raining all day even at mid-station (1288m). Fantastic snow on the hill in light to moderate winds. Rain has arrived now but should die out overnight.
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langball wrote:
@sussexmartlet, if there's a better looking chart out there, then I haven't seen it yet. There is hardly any chance that it will verify like that, more of a case study in what a massive northern stau? would look like. The GFS is prone to overstating the atlantic flow, and it's also poor at handling blocking over Scandinavia, but if it's on the right track, then the zonal atlantic flow overpowers the previous high pressure block there and fills it in with a big purple lobe of vortex. Would be snowy.


512dam air over almost all of the UK too. The very definition of chart eye candy! Shocked
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robboj wrote:


512dam air over almost all of the UK too. The very definition of chart eye candy! Shocked


I’m glad I bought a new set of winter tyres today then.
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A lot more heavy snow to come in places on Sunday into Monday.

This shows snowfall up to Sunday evening at which point it will still be snowing heavily in effected areas (French Italian border, especially the Italian side and parts of Switzerland).



Places like Val d’Isere and Zermatt can expect to see further heavy and potentiality disruptive snowfall on top of what they received over the last few days along with high avalanche risk.

Snow line could for a short spell reach 2000m in the French side at times during the storm. A few hundred meters lower on Swiss and Italian side before dropping considerably.
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@nozawaonsen, any more thoughts on the forecast further out? There seems to be discrepancy between ECMWF and GFS, with the former being a good boy and favouring further Atlantic weather systems coming in from the W/NW, or have I interpreted that completely wrong?
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Fifth guiding day blown out due to weather / conditions!

Just not worth it.

At least guides we know don't rip you off and are more than flexible when it comes to the weather and more importantly safe skiing.

I dug a pit in the garden last night to view the layers and there's quite a large weak one present.

I'll dig another one on more of a gradient and do a tap test and hopefully video it.

Retour d'est Sunday onwards as I mentioned earlier looks to be happening big time. Guide who lives in Turin was saying yesterday that it can also extend up to Aosta / Courmayer and not just restricted to Southern Piedmont / Queyras etc
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Amazing snow coming up for the southern alps alright. I should add that most of my posts only focus on the north, home bias etc

Crazy stories coming out of US east coast, 4 people have died, Florida beaches have first snow in 29 years, NY temps at 850hpa hit -25c. And saw a picture of a shark frozen solid on a beach.

All that cold air is due to clear north east, keeping the Atlantic relatively cold, so even if we end up in a westerly flow, it could be cooler than normal.
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