 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Layne wrote: |
If you go skiing in late January you are sacrificing the potential for some nasty weather against cheap costs and quiet slopes.
I agree skiing in rain is no fun but it's relatively rare and would be for a day or two. Not something I'd sweat on or change resorts for personally.
In fact, in general, I just suck it up. The only time I have changed plans is when Le Sept Laux didn't open (start of season). |
I’ll be honest I did expect cold and potential white outs in January. Just didn’t think I would be looking at a +2000m FL, 6 degrees and rain. You live and learn.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Astontech, having skied in Avoriaz after new year last year which was after a massive deluge and then a warm spell with no precipitation, I’d say you’ll be fine. The beginners’ area is at c1800m and there is masses of snow now, so a couple of days of rain (and I think it might stay below zero overnight?) won’t affect anything too much. As she graduates onto runs like Proclou (the big wide greeny blue run) that should be ok too, but that is a wee bit lower.
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Ok great, thanks everyone. I thought heavy rain may ruin the snow but that dosen't seem to be the case which is good to hear!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| EvieTee wrote: |
| Layne wrote: |
If you go skiing in late January you are sacrificing the potential for some nasty weather against cheap costs and quiet slopes.
I agree skiing in rain is no fun but it's relatively rare and would be for a day or two. Not something I'd sweat on or change resorts for personally.
In fact, in general, I just suck it up. The only time I have changed plans is when Le Sept Laux didn't open (start of season). |
I’ll be honest I did expect cold and potential white outs in January. Just didn’t think I would be looking at a +2000m FL, 6 degrees and rain. You live and learn. |
Whilst it's more likely to have cold and white outs, nothing can be ruled out. We had rain Christmas 2022 with FL crazily high for the time of year.
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| Astontech wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
Oooh gosh @Astontech - that’s pressure! Tbh as it stands it looks like it might be touch and go in Avoriaz around 16-18 Jan. Beyond 18th is still very uncertain. We’re back out on 26/1 and as it stands the week before we arrive looks quite unsettled and colder.
The thing about beginners is as long as there is snow on the ground (which there will be) then they can learn to ski. If it rains it’ll be unpleasant, but if it’s white out/blowing a hoolie then it’s also unpleasant (as my now 21 year old daughter can attest from when she was expelled from ski school at 4yrs old…). So what you want ideally is clear and sunny - and tbh it’s a bit far out to be able to predict that. |
We will be skiing 19-22. If it rains 16-18 should the skiing be effected? |
I wouldn't change - Avoriaz is relatively high at 1800m, so there's not that many other resorts that you could swap to and be more certain (bearing in my the weather likes to change it's mind!). Things look like they'll be cooling back down from the 19th, and any rain before won't make that much difference to the slopes. Plus Avoriaz is a great place for a first timer - nice beginner slopes, pedestrianised with no cars, just horse and carridges, so you'd lose more if you swapped (IMO).
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Too early to be even considering changing resort for 19-22 Jan. (Unless, perhaps, you were going somewhere which was extremely low and currently had zero snow on the ground, which you aren't). What the weather will be like beyond a week's time is far from certain at the moment.
Worth checking again at the weekend maybe, but Avoriaz is quite "weatherproof" with both high slopes and sheltered slopes.
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| Layne wrote: |
| EvieTee wrote: |
| Layne wrote: |
If you go skiing in late January you are sacrificing the potential for some nasty weather against cheap costs and quiet slopes.
I agree skiing in rain is no fun but it's relatively rare and would be for a day or two. Not something I'd sweat on or change resorts for personally.
In fact, in general, I just suck it up. The only time I have changed plans is when Le Sept Laux didn't open (start of season). |
I’ll be honest I did expect cold and potential white outs in January. Just didn’t think I would be looking at a +2000m FL, 6 degrees and rain. You live and learn. |
Whilst it's more likely to have cold and white outs, nothing can be ruled out. We had rain Christmas 2022 with FL crazily high for the time of year. |
Every day is a school day!
So if you had a no restrictions choice, just out of interest, which weeks of the year would you choose to go to the Alps skiing?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| EvieTee wrote: |
Every day is a school day!
So if you had a no restrictions choice, just out of interest, which weeks of the year would you choose to go to the Alps skiing? |
....When there are the fewest other people there and the conditions are best, ideal snow in the week before I went, nice clear days with a bit of top up snow overnight some nights, without effecting visibility for skiing.
It is however impossible to predict much of that, so you plump for a time and a place and make the best of what you get when you get there, enjoy it, and thank your lucky stars your skiing down a mountain instead of being stuck behind a desk. 
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@EvieTee, I’d go this week ie as soon as the Xmas/new year holidays are over and first week of March as soon as the feb hols are over.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @EvieTee, I’d go this week ie as soon as the Xmas/new year holidays are over and first week of March as soon as the feb hols are over. |
These are the weeks I normally pick!!
This year we’ve had to go a week later so we are leaving this Saturday.
I can’t do Feb. It’s just too busy. Love March for the longer days.
I usually like January too. Keeping everything crossed for cooler air next week.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| t44tomo wrote: |
| EvieTee wrote: |
Every day is a school day!
So if you had a no restrictions choice, just out of interest, which weeks of the year would you choose to go to the Alps skiing? |
....When there are the fewest other people there and the conditions are best, ideal snow in the week before I went, nice clear days with a bit of top up snow overnight some nights, without effecting visibility for skiing.
It is however impossible to predict much of that, so you plump for a time and a place and make the best of what you get when you get there, enjoy it, and thank your lucky stars your skiing down a mountain instead of being stuck behind a desk. |
Ah the dream ski holiday! I think most people would want the same.
As you say, whichever way you look at it being in the mountains is better than being at work!!
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| EvieTee wrote: |
So if you had a no restrictions choice, just out of interest, which weeks of the year would you choose to go to the Alps skiing? |
Mid/late Jan and early March every year
Mid/late Jan for best snow in most resorts at any height
Early March - go higher for good snow and good weather
Also both cheaper than Feb, as well as better...
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You know it makes sense.
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| EvieTee wrote: |
| So if you had a no restrictions choice, just out of interest, which weeks of the year would you choose to go to the Alps skiing? |
Best time of all would be mid-March whenever the school holidays are over. And the worst of winter is over, snow depths are as good as they'll be. Days are a bit longer.
But, I'm not that fussy.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Can we try and get back onto subject please , the weather outlook !
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Can we try and get back onto subject please , the weather outlook ! |
Sure, but only if you tell me it’s going to be cold and snowy next week rather than rainy 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snowed more today than was forecast….just shows that you never know in the mountains 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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So it seems as if the 12z UKMO is more hopefull for the alps with cold air moving south from +144
GFS seems ok?
In general, it seems to be less wet now Tues-Thurs?
Maybe someone more knowledge than me can chime in here.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @EvieTee, I’d go this week ie as soon as the Xmas/new year holidays are over and first week of March as soon as the feb hols are over. |
I wonder if the ski week after that one in January is the holy grail, after all the folk who waited for families to bug off have departed themselves
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Astontech wrote: |
So it seems as if the 12z UKMO is more hopefull for the alps with cold air moving south from +144
GFS seems ok?
In general, it seems to be less wet now Tues-Thurs?
Maybe someone more knowledge than me can chime in here. |
Sounds hopeful
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There are 28 GFS runs every single week, plus dozens more from the other main weather models. So it's probably not worth clinging onto changes from one single run to the next, especially when the period of interest is over a week off.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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850pHa is an atmospheric pressure level. Roughly 1500m.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some improvements on the overnight runs, especially mon-tues. GFS not as good as others so it might come into line later. Still a marginal situation in the west, but definitely a bit colder looking now, less mild air initially.
The atlantic low is staying west a little longer, allowing more cold air to reach south. Pattern is leaning east, but still capable of widespread snow.
Will have a better look this afternoon, lots of freshies need to be tracked this morning.
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Great stuff when the forecasts are wrong in terms of underpredicting the amount of snowfall and it's actually in our favour, doesn't happen too often but love it when it does
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You know it makes sense.
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| polo wrote: |
Some improvements on the overnight runs, especially mon-tues. GFS not as good as others so it might come into line later. Still a marginal situation in the west, but definitely a bit colder looking now, less mild air initially.
The atlantic low is staying west a little longer, allowing more cold air to reach south. Pattern is leaning east, but still capable of widespread snow.
Will have a better look this afternoon, lots of freshies need to be tracked this morning. |
Fingers crossed. We are heading to L2A on Saturday and could do with (more) favourable conditions!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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This is shaping up to be a cracking end of the week for the Western Alps. Fresh snow and dry / sunny weather with little wind.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| MattJUK wrote: |
| Fingers crossed. We are heading to L2A on Saturday and could do with (more) favourable conditions! |
It is what it is, pretty sure you'll have a good holiday (I hope) regardless of what the weather decides to do!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Been a very special morning with old friends in La Grave, like the old days, no-one here, zero queue at lift pass office and lift, then real blower face shots etc etc
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| franga wrote: |
| This is shaping up to be a cracking end of the week for the Western Alps. Fresh snow and dry / sunny weather with little wind. |
Ah, shucks - guess I’d best head over to Morzine tomorrow then… 
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There are some lucky people out there at the moment with near perfect conditions and probably not too busy. These weather conditions seem likely to persist through to the weekend. The weather pattern is changing with a major cut-off low developing over the Azores, and cold air spreading south from the Arctic over northern Europe during the weekend. Two factors will determine what happens over the Alps: firstly how the cut-off low evolves and how far south the Arctic air spreads. It seems that a portion of the cut-off low will later move into southern Europe bringing some very warm air with it. This warm air will engage with the cold air spreading south leading to the development of a significant low over Europe in a week's time, see the ECMWF forecast at 850hPa for next Thursday: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref
I've used the 850 hPA (about 1500m) chart as this shows the temperature of the airmass more clearly. There will obviously be variations in where this low will form and how active it will be, but there is the possibility of some very warm air over the Alps for a few days next week. if the low is a bit further south, we could have some significant snow in the Alps. Also some potentially snowy weather for the UK - an interesting one to watch.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Onelasttime1!, thanks for your updates - I find them really clear and easy to understand for a non expert.
I'm off to the Dolomites mid next week - do you have any insight as to what might be happening there next week? Fully aware of all the usual caveats around it still being a week away!
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| TomBH wrote: |
@Onelasttime1!, thanks for your updates - I find them really clear and easy to understand for a non expert.
I'm off to the Dolomites mid next week - do you have any insight as to what might be happening there next week? Fully aware of all the usual caveats around it still being a week away! |
We have been going to the Dolomites every year since 2010 (excluding Covid) and really enjoyed it. Going to Zurs at end of Jan. The middle of next week is finely balanced as I hinted above, some models. keep it mild, whilst in others, the cold weather wins. It will probably be resolved by the weekend.
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
There are some lucky people out there at the moment with near perfect conditions and probably not too busy. These weather conditions seem likely to persist through to the weekend. The weather pattern is changing with a major cut-off low developing over the Azores, and cold air spreading south from the Arctic over northern Europe during the weekend. Two factors will determine what happens over the Alps: firstly how the cut-off low evolves and how far south the Arctic air spreads. It seems that a portion of the cut-off low will later move into southern Europe bringing some very warm air with it. This warm air will engage with the cold air spreading south leading to the development of a significant low over Europe in a week's time, see the ECMWF forecast at 850hPa for next Thursday: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref
I've used the 850 hPA (about 1500m) chart as this shows the temperature of the airmass more clearly. There will obviously be variations in where this low will form and how active it will be, but there is the possibility of some very warm air over the Alps for a few days next week. if the low is a bit further south, we could have some significant snow in the Alps. Also some potentially snowy weather for the UK - an interesting one to watch. |
Will it be a case of warm air and now low = just warm
Or warm air and low = rain
Or does it mean that if the colder dogs further south, it will then bring ppm hence it will be snow
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| Astontech wrote: |
| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
There are some lucky people out there at the moment with near perfect conditions and probably not too busy. These weather conditions seem likely to persist through to the weekend. The weather pattern is changing with a major cut-off low developing over the Azores, and cold air spreading south from the Arctic over northern Europe during the weekend. Two factors will determine what happens over the Alps: firstly how the cut-off low evolves and how far south the Arctic air spreads. It seems that a portion of the cut-off low will later move into southern Europe bringing some very warm air with it. This warm air will engage with the cold air spreading south leading to the development of a significant low over Europe in a week's time, see the ECMWF forecast at 850hPa for next Thursday: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref
I've used the 850 hPA (about 1500m) chart as this shows the temperature of the airmass more clearly. There will obviously be variations in where this low will form and how active it will be, but there is the possibility of some very warm air over the Alps for a few days next week. if the low is a bit further south, we could have some significant snow in the Alps. Also some potentially snowy weather for the UK - an interesting one to watch. |
Will it be a case of warm air and now low = just warm
Or warm air and low = rain
Or does it mean that if the colder dogs further south, it will then bring ppm hence it will be snow |
It's very much uncertain at this lead time. This chart is the latest German forecast for the same time: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ico&var=2&run=12&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref. The evolution is very different, but still with a strong temperature gradient north to south across the Alps. This scenario would probably lead to rain below 2000m, but only a small shift south for the cold air would give widespread snow. We need to wait a few days to see how the evolution develops.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Oh my this is tense stuff
Come in cold air push on down!!!
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| TomBH wrote: |
@Onelasttime1!, thanks for your updates - I find them really clear and easy to understand for a non expert.
I'm off to the Dolomites mid next week - do you have any insight as to what might be happening there next week? Fully aware of all the usual caveats around it still being a week away! |
We have been going to the Dolomites every year since 2010 (excluding Covid) and really enjoyed it. Going to Zurs at end of Jan. The middle of next week is finely balanced as I hinted above, some models. keep it mild, whilst in others, the cold weather wins. It will probably be resolved by the weekend. |
I'll also be in Arlberg (St Anton) from 27 jan to 3 feb.
What's your forecast for that week, still a bit early no?
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FAQ
