@Weathercam,
To answer your question it was at 1800m
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
red 27 wrote:
May I suggest the trainspotters start their own thread?
Or perhaps their own website...
C’mon now nothing wrong with passing the time a little bit while we wait for more news.
After all it is free
After all it is free
With the blocking high (seemingly) going nowhere for some considerable time, no snowfall (baring a dusting in Austria) or cold temperatures in the forecast we may need something else to amuse ourselves
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
i will have to agree that it looks bad....thank goodness November prevented true
difficulty.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Around Salzburgerland should see 20cm+ Saturday into Sunday down to low levels. Should set things up nicely for people the next week with plenty of sunshine to enjoy.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Happy New Year,
Hope ye all have a good one, with good, safe & enjoyable skiing all round
Okay, so reading the excellent expert views here, it's a Foehn mushy freeze snow pack for several weeks , yes?, with the possible exception of Noza's identified short snow spell ossible in the Jan 8-11th window.
We're considering going skiing in 3 weeks in Val D'Isere, but I'm not feeling at all optimistic about our chances of good snow tbh.
We still have the possibility of changing destinations, possibly going to the Arlberg,
or to northern Alps resorts, or maybe even further afield.
Where's in your opinions is the best probability of getting good fluffy snow in 3-4 weeks???
(& yes I understand the limitations of predictability in this)
Appreciate any feedback all the same...
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@horgand, you've sort of answered your own question. 3 weeks away is too far ahead to predict.
The only significant snow currently in the forecast is for the NE Alps. But even that will be "old" snow by the time of your holiday. So wherever ends up best will depend on fresh snow which is not yet in the forecasts. If we are all extremely unlucky and there is no more significant snow in the next 3 weeks (unlikely), the best place to be going would be somewhere which has good base depths. And Val d'Isere is pretty much as good as you could wish for in that respect. I don't think switching to anywhere else would give better odds.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@horgand, no Föhn forecast at present. At least no Sudföhn. Cold in the east for the next few days. After that sunny, mild, high pressure and dry. Beyond 10 days out hard to tell. 3 to 4 weeks out could have blizzards and be into a heat wave or vice versa. Or indeed various other options.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
denfinella wrote:
@horgandAnd Val d'Isere is pretty much as good as you could wish for in that respect. I don't think switching to anywhere else would give better odds.
This.
There is no rational basis for switching from val. There is a rational basis for staying with it, as it has a good base and is high.
If you want to ski the absolve best conditions in europe in 3 weeks time then you need to wait to book until about 2 and half weeks time. Even then there might not be fresh snow anywhere in europe and it is logistically more difficult unless you're a very small group. I'm on such a jaunt now having booked yesterday.
There is a good base in the southern and western alps so anywhere high in those areas should be good in 3 weeks time. Skiing is always fun, gravity is always the same! Don't get too hung up on the optimum unless you're willing to torture yourself and be disappointed!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Brothergrimm wrote:
i will have to agree that it looks bad....thank goodness November prevented true
difficulty.
The Buddha (Morris) had some wise words in his update today - there's four more months of the season left, it will come
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
Mr.Egg wrote:
Celerina/Schalrigna
Correct!
@Weathercam,
To answer your question it was at 1800m
well there is a chalet with its name on it to search by!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
8611 wrote:
Brothergrimm wrote:
i will have to agree that it looks bad....thank goodness November prevented true
difficulty.
The Buddha (Morris) had some wise words in his update today - there's four more months of the season left, it will come
Very wise words, and yes it will come, but of course it all depends upon one’s circumstances as to when you are going to the alps and if you have any flexibility.
I suppose it’s the age old adage ‘you can’t control the weather’
In terms of forecasting, am I i right in thinking that the longer term forecasts, i.e past seven days will keep predicting the high unmoved as the models/forecasts have nothing to go on other than to forecast the status quo? What or where will we get the first indications the high may be on the move? Would that be in the ensembles? I am a keen watcher of this thread and the weather but some on here are very knowledgable
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@sussexmartlet, ensemble forecasts show the range of possibilities from each run of a particular model (eg ECMWF or GEFS). They can be visualised in various ways. The spaghetti plots (the multicoloured lines) are a way of easily comparing the outcomes of each ensemble run. From which you may be able to identify probable outcomes or the extent of uncertainty. But there are other ways of displaying this information to allow you to compare different output (such as parallel charts of different ensemble runs or meteograms). Obviously as GFS puts out its product in a free to access form that tends to be more widely used.
So yes any change is likely to show up in the ensemble forecasts and that may be easiest to see in the spaghetti plots. But it may not simply appear at the far end in one operational run and work it’s way back. Nor will it appear in the mean at the far end as this tends to simply represent a flattening out of all the possibilities which tend to be very wide at that point.
Incidentally I sometimes see people referring to the Meteociel model. As far as I am aware Meteociel and Wetterzentrale are just weather websites. They show various visualisations of different models. They are not a model themselves.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@sussexmartlet, ensemble forecasts show the range of possibilities from each run of a particular model (eg ECMWF or GEFS). They can be visualised in various ways. The spaghetti plots (the multicoloured lines) are a way of easily comparing the outcomes of each ensemble run. From which you may be able to identify probable outcomes or the extent of uncertainty. But there are other ways of displaying this information to allow you to compare different output (such as parallel charts of different ensemble runs or meteograms). Obviously as GFS puts out its product in a free to access form that tends to be more widely used.
So yes any change is likely to show up in the ensemble forecasts and that may be easiest to see in the spaghetti plots. But it may not simply appear at the far end in one operational run and work it’s way back. Nor will it appear in the mean at the far end as this tends to simply represent a flattening out of all the possibilities which tend to be very wide at that point.
Incidentally I sometimes see people referring to the Meteociel model. As far as I am aware Meteociel and Wetterzentrale are just weather websites. They show various visualisations of different models. They are not a model themselves.
Thank you nozawaonsen, I shall keep my eyes on the spaghetti plots
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@munich_irish, no as he’s still waiting for the £ to hit parity with the Euro
After all it is free
After all it is free
sussexmartlet wrote:
8611 wrote:
Brothergrimm wrote:
i will have to agree that it looks bad....thank goodness November prevented true
difficulty.
The Buddha (Morris) had some wise words in his update today - there's four more months of the season left, it will come
Very wise words, and yes it will come, but of course it all depends upon one’s circumstances as to when you are going to the alps and if you have any flexibility.
True, I am speaking as someone lucky enough to have that flexibility and confident that I can get another two to three short powder jaunts in before end of season. I suspect Morris' audience is the same.
Having all my eggs in one basket previously was no fun and forced me to change to last minute outings.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Rob Mackley, Stanton claims the full moon is around the 10th. There might be a few snowflakes to be seen too.
Though while I understand how the moon affects tides, I'm not aware of how it affects snow Anyone care to enlighten me?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@munich_irish, I go for the new moon rather than the full moon which is 24th Jan .
@Scarlet, All the weather guys will say a new moon has no effect , however I’ve seen many stubbed highs move for a change in the weather patten with a new moon although probably a coincidence , many locals say there will be no change in the weather till a new moon .
I normally post this every season when we get a stubborn high phase just to be irritating
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Rob Mackley wrote:
however I’ve seen many stubbed highs move for a change in the weather patten with a new moon
Sounds fascinating. Can you just give me a breakdown of the specific dates when this occurred (a new moon which had an apparent link to substantial pressure shifts over Europe) and for ease of comparison specific dates when this did not occur (so a new moon which had no apparent link to substantial pressure shifts over Europe). Should be straightforward to come to some sort of initial conclusion.
Mind you I am concerned that some people appear to link this change to a full moon and some to a new moon. I fear this may cause complications, potential schism between the Clangers and risk endless civil war?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
In Bardonecchia 12-19th and been looking at the forecasts, looks very warm next week with freezing levels above the summits quite consistently all week. Then past the 10th it's obviously a lot less predictable but the GFS on wetterzentrale shows temperatures back nearer seasonal averages and potentially quite a bit of snow at various points... kinda the opposite of what we want, if it happens!
They seem to have some kind of base, and in any case we've booked and paid now so we'll get what we get. But kind of frustrating for my first proper ski holiday since 2015
a) we don’t control the weather
b ) it is what it is / being strapped on a plank of wood at any altitude beats a day looking at my computer screen and worrying whether I’m making enough money for someone else
c) if I had a holiday in Val coming up I’d be doing cartwheels
d) not getting remotely excited until nozawaonsen suggests that a change in the weather patterns is afoot and that the high is about to shift
In other news, I walked the dog (in Cheshire) in a t-shirt tonight ...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
franga wrote:
d) not getting remotely excited until nozawaonsen suggests that a change in the weather patterns is afoot and that the high is about to shift
In other news, I walked the dog (in Cheshire) in a t-shirt tonight ...
In Bardonecchia 12-19th and been looking at the forecasts, looks very warm next week with freezing levels above the summits quite consistently all week. Then past the 10th it's obviously a lot less predictable but the GFS on wetterzentrale shows temperatures back nearer seasonal averages and potentially quite a bit of snow at various points... kinda the opposite of what we want, if it happens!
They seem to have some kind of base, and in any case we've booked and paid now so we'll get what we get. But kind of frustrating for my first proper ski holiday since 2015
I've been skiing in Bardonecchia all this week, and the forecast next week doesn't look all that different to this week. Sunny and freeze-thaw temps. Forgive the brief diversion from weather to snow reports, but pistes are freezing overnight with hard snow morning and softening during the day. Most of the main area is shady, so never gets too soft - make sure you have sharp edges. Best snow is on the quietest slopes, so runs from top on Colomion (accessible only by poma) and the stangely little skied blue, Biancaneve. Or stick close to the edges of the pistes. Off-piste is more like piste where skied a lot, and frozen crust elsewhere (best avoided). There is a decent base.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Some GFS murmurings of a few flakes in the western alps this Friday 10th. Can't see any support for it elsewhere
This has crept back into the output over the last couple of runs.
It’s what remains of the more substantial signal for colder weather around 08-12 January which was cropping up a few days ago. There’s some suggestion of it in 12z ECM. It doesn’t look that substantial, but it would bring some fresh snow and colder temperatures to the northern side of the Alps.
18z GFS follows it up with some more snow showers for the northern Alps on 13/14 January.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
@8611, thinking more 10-20cm followed by sun. Should be good.
Just shy of 15cm overnight in resort, plus what spat yesterday and still snowing lightly now. Exactly within the forecasted ranges. Some nice powder today and some much needed freshening up for the runs generally.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
High pressure currently.
High pressure at +240 06z GFS
High pressure at +384 06z GFS
And the ensembles are pretty tight.
All of which means a general pattern of dry, often sunny and generally mild for the time of year.
Worth noting that for many that is pretty pleasant weather to have in the Alps. Most people should enjoy conditions like this, but if you are hoping for fresh snow you will need to be patient and remember The Isley Brothers have got you covered...
All of which means a general pattern of dry, often sunny and generally mild for the time of year.
Worth noting that for many that is pretty pleasant weather to have in the Alps. Most people should enjoy conditions like this, but if you are hoping for fresh snow you will need to be patient and remember The Isley Brothers have got you covered...
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Poster: A snowHead
