Cold front incoming for the West Coast of the USA this weekend. It will steadily march across the mountains of the BC Coast Range, Cariboo, Selkirk, Monashee, and Purcell ranges of interior BC, WA/OR Cascade Range, CA Sierras, CO Rockies, UT Wasatch and the San Juans of SW Colorado, pausing for a brief period of time to deposit about 15cm to 30cm of dry, light, fluffy ethereal elixir of H20, in a form that humans have named cold smoke powder.
Don't count your White Christmas packages until the white gift paper and white ribbons and white bows have been neatly and expertly wrapped by Mother Nature and placed under the Christmas trees.
Obviously out in far FI, but 06z GFS shows part of the polar vortex sliding down over Scandinavia pulling cold and snow across the Alps in early January.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
“Interesting 'shift' in the 06Z GFS ENS longer term. Could be something, could be nothing at that time frame, but that is often how potential colder weather and synoptics makes an appearance/is first highlighted. Certainly something there for first week of Jan... #hmmm”
Could be just over a week until my mate Jon can do this again. Grand Massif off piste acrobatics on thurs.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
12z GFS also bringing in much colder temperatures from New Year. Still without a lot of ensemble support, but worth keeping an eye on. Be interesting to see if this starts to crop up in ECM.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, that chart for 5th Jan, the -30 figure, is that a pressure anomaly and does it just mean that cold air is being drawn from the North around it? That's my transfer day from Salzburg to Zell am See, I don't fancy a temp of -30C!! Also a snowbound UK airport won't be fun, as I'm sure it will be the wrong kind of snow for them to be able to clear it!!
In the short term, Morris from WePowder is sticking with his Nordstau sandwich for Austria tomorrow...https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/262238
After all it is free
After all it is free
@luigi, it’s is indeed a pressure anomaly chart. Although they look similar to the temperature anomaly charts on Meteociel you can always tell because they are marked in the bottom left hand corner (in this case “Anomalie Geop. 500hPa (dam)”). Possibly the implication that if it were a temperature chart it would be 30C colder than average in Eastern Europe and over 40C warmer than average off to US coast might also have raised eyebrows.
In any case there is a fair amount of snow on its way over the next 48 hours, particularly in Austria. Snow line quite high, falling to low levels on Christmas Eve.
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After the Nordstau, high pressure reigns on the modeling out past 10 days, into modeling fantasyland. These patterns can be incredibly persistent, which makes me nervous. Except for eastern Austria, it looks like we have to punt the period through New Year's. And until there is a clear pattern shift within 240hrs on the GFS and EC, there is every reason to be a little concerned.
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altaski8 wrote:
there is every reason to be a little concerned.
Or relax and enjoy the fine weather on its way?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
"Fine weather" is very location specific. Currently the weather is typically horrible in Germany. I don't understand why people (including myself ) live here. The weather looks great for a few days in Austria and Switzerland. If it weren't Christmas, I would go there. Thereafter is looks like stagnation fog will set in along with generally dry and chilly conditions. And the French Alps, where I will be in January, look especially dry into the long term. Winter is the time for snow. There is plenty of time for sunshine during the rest of the year. If you like snow, the medium into long-term looks slightly concerning.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bit of a change on today's 06Z GFS. High pressure is oriented slightly further west into the Atlantic (out past day 7) putting the main longwave flow further west into Europe. This results is a return to storminess for most of Europe around the end of the year. This continues a slight trend visible in recent model runs. I'll be curious to see how robust the support for this shift is in the ensembles. This could be just a head fake.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
06z GFS continues the pattern it has been toying with since last Thursday of introducing cold and snowy weather across the Alps early in the New Year.
Meanwhile next week from Christmas Day looks pretty sunny for much of the Alps clearing from the West (ie later in the East).
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
So is mild, wet and stormy weather at Christmas an oddity? Not really. Indeed so common is it that it has its own singularity. Weihnachtstauwetter. 70% of the time Christmas is accompanied by this weather pattern.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Still, it's dec 23 and courchevel 1850 and Nashville, TN have the same temp and weather.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Ptspeak, Well exactly. And that’s precisely why I am skiing in Nashville this season.
Horrible clear wet stuff falling at resort level in Zell am See, booooooooooo
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Piste conditions not too shabby at all above 1500 meters. Not too icy although a bit of debris on piste. Off piste it is crust - more or less breakable depending on weight and skis - not quite spring snow but the sun wasn't very strong today. More rain incoming tomorrow
Piste conditions not too shabby at all above 1500 meters. Not too icy although a bit of debris on piste. Off piste it is crust - more or less breakable depending on weight and skis - not quite spring snow but the sun wasn't very strong today. More rain incoming tomorrow
Where are you skiing at the moment?
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
sbooker wrote:
davidof wrote:
Piste conditions not too shabby at all above 1500 meters. Not too icy although a bit of debris on piste. Off piste it is crust - more or less breakable depending on weight and skis - not quite spring snow but the sun wasn't very strong today. More rain incoming tomorrow
Where are you skiing at the moment?
le Collet d'Allevard - pistes from 1400 to 2200 meters, it is completely deserted, I don't know if this is the "yellow vest" effect?
Yes, onpiste sliding was pretty good this weekend above ~1200m in France.
The heavy rain and high temps have softened the concrete.
It was +8c at ~2000m yesterday.
Porridgey offpiste above ~2500m.
Lots of brown patches appearing below ~1800m in the 3Vs. A week of sun and rain ahead. Some lower runs shutdown next week until the snow returns.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Snowline tomorrow looks like varying considerably depending which end of the Alps you are in. In west places like Courchevel will see it hovering around 1800m in east places like Saalbach will around 800m, dropping through the day.
After this system has passed through it looks like being mostly sunny and pleasant.
12z GFS again has cold and snow in the New Year more so in the eastern Alps.
After all it is free
After all it is free
SLF on Switzerland.
“Observed weather on Sunday, 23.12.2018
In the furthermost southern regions it was predomiantly sunny, in Grisons during the morning hours skies were partially brightened. In the other regions of Switzerland, skies were heavily overcast. During the night there was snowfall in northeastern regions in particular, and subsequently as of midday, throughout the northern regions. The snowfall level was at approximately 1700 m.
Fresh snow
Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of fresh snow were registered:
- northern flank of the Alps and northern Valais, approximately 10 cm;
- in the eastern sector of the northern flank of the Alps as much as 20 cm;
- remaining regions of Switzerland: only a few centimetres over widespread areas;
- in the southern regions it remained dry.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between -1 °C in northeastern regions and +3 °C in southern regions.
Wind
Winds were blowing at moderate to strong velocity from westerly directions, from northwesterly directions on the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom.
Weather forecast through Monday, 24.12.2018
As a consequence of strong-velocity northwesterly winds, moist and extremely mild air masses to begin with, will accumulate in the Alps. Skies will be heavily overcast and precipitation is anticipated over widespread areas, quite heavy precipitation on the northern Alpine Ridge. During the afternoon, the precipitation will come to an end from east to west and above approximately 2500 m it will become sunny in the eastern regions. The snowfall level will rapidly ascend from approximately 1800 m to about 2000 to 2400 m. As the period of precipitation draws to a close, the snowfall level will descend to approximately 1000m. In the furthermost southern regions, it will be sunny as a result of the storm-strength northerly winds.
Fresh snow
Between Sunday midday and the end of this period of precipitation on Christmas Eve, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated above 2500 m:
- northern Alpine Ridge from the eastern Bernese Oberland as far as the Alpstein: 60 to 100 cm; from place to place also more;
- remaining regions of Switzerland north of an imaginary Rhine-Rhone line, Prättigau, Silvretta and Samnaun: 40 to 60 cm;
- southern Valais, remaining parts of the Gotthard region, remaining parts of central Grisons, northern Upper Engadine, remaining parts of Lower Engadine: 20 to 40 cm; in the Valais as much as 50 cm from place to place;
- Ticino not including the Gotthard region, southern valleys of Grisons southern part of Upper Engadine: less than 20 cm; in the furthermost southern regions it will remain dry.
- Below 1800 m, maximum 30 cm of snowfall is anticipated.
Temperature
At 2000 m, during the night at about +2 °C, at midday between 0 °C in southwestern regions and -6 °C in northeastern regions.
Wind
Winds during the night will be blowing at strong to storm strength from westerly to northwesterly directions;
during the daytime, strong winds at high altitudes in the northern regions, in the southern regions blowing at storm strength at all altitudes, from northerly directions.
Outlook through Wednesday,
26.12.2018
It will be sunny in the mountains. On Christmas Day, northerly winds will still be blowing at moderate to strong velocity at high altitudes. On Boxing Day winds are expected to slacken off and it will become mild.”
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@nozawaonsen, yes I was somewhat pleased to see the snow line in Saalbach drop after 12pm tomorrow. It’s currently widdling down!
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LWD Tirol have updated their website and now include their blog in English (and Italian as well as German). Makes for an interesting read.
I’ve been following all the forecasts and reports way too closely considering I’m not on snow until late January. What an emotional roller coaster!
Please tell me it’s way too early to be worried and anything can happen between now and then. I’ll be at 3V first week then Serre Chevalier (although the second week isn’t set in stone).
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Raven, what is it that is concerning you?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Raven, it’s way too early to be worried and anything can happen between now and then.
FWIW, I'm heading to one of the lowest resorts in the NW Alps in mid-January, and I'm not at all worried.
Yet
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen,
Quote:
And that’s precisely why I am skiing in Nashville this season.
I don't recommend it . Cool, wet and all green here ATM. It's been a very wet fall (and most of the entire year for that matter).
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Frosty the Snowman wrote:
@Raven, what is it that is concerning you?
Just the usual snow anxiety
I’m sure it will be fine. It’s just stressful when you spend all your holiday money for the year to travel from Australia to Europe and hope the snow gods do the right thing for you. They haven’t always on past trips ...
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
hammerite wrote:
@nozawaonsen, yes I was somewhat pleased to see the snow line in Saalbach drop after 12pm tomorrow. It’s currently widdling down!
It's turned to white stuff currently on the cams in Saalbach, hopefully will continue to fall and get fluffier as the day goes on and cover up whatever damage the weekend's rain has caused.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Is that another Nordstau coming in for New Years Eve on the 0Z GFS? Fingers crossed that plays out!!
Out in far FI, it looks like the pattern persists and a pair of N/NW storms rattle through the first week of Jan. Might be a snowy start to 2019 for N Alps.
@luigi, not 100% sure what time the snow started, but it was snowing hard at around 7.30am when I looked out and it hasn’t stopped since. I don’t actually think the rain did much damage at all.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
There has been a huge amount of rain here, which started yesterday afternoon and stopped about 1pm today. Snow line is about 1100m, I think, up from 600m a few days ago. The thick cloud which has been filling the valley for two days has started to lift now and the sun has come out.
Patscherkofel and Nordkette look really good on the webcams, and there don't seem to be too many people up there at the moment. Axamer Lizum has a big snow cloud hanging around the top, so not much to see up there, and it's a similar story at Stubai which is also partially closed due to wind. Looks like there's been at least 30cm.
The rain turned to snow over the Jungfrau Region of Switzerland after 1ish... At least now it should look and be lovely over the festive period! Today they registered 48cm of new snow at 2332m!
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 24-12-18 18:01; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
hammerite wrote:
@luigi, not 100% sure what time the snow started, but it was snowing hard at around 7.30am when I looked out and it hasn’t stopped since. I don’t actually think the rain did much damage at all.
Glemmtal still looks very white, but it's stripped the snow off the lower hillsides and valley bottom around Zell am See, quite a bit of green visible now, the snow looks like it got down to around 900m before petering out. Luckily Saalbach is over 1000m. I expect there will be a icy crustiness on the lower slopes where the rain fell, until there's a big dump. New Year is looking hopeful!!
After all it is free
After all it is free
We’ve had c36hrs of heavy rain in Bregenzerwald, at 700m. Mix of rain and snow higher, yesterday and overnight, but not too much damage- just had fab day at Warth-Schröcken with c20cm of fresh to enjoy. Off piste not bad, especially higher up, but you are aware it’s not a deep base yet. Solid snow line late afternoon c750-800m. Heading to Damüls tomorrow and probably touring on Wednesday.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Colder and snowier spell around New Year in Austria (currently less strong further west), starting to develop ensemble support on 12z GFS.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
) live here. The weather looks great for a few days in Austria and Switzerland. If it weren't Christmas, I would go there. Thereafter is looks like stagnation fog will set in along with generally dry and chilly conditions. And the French Alps, where I will be in January, look especially dry into the long term. Winter is the time for snow. There is plenty of time for sunshine during the rest of the year. If you like snow, the medium into long-term looks slightly concerning.
. Cool, wet and all green here ATM. It's been a very wet fall (and most of the entire year for that matter).
