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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Here’s a good breakdown from Météo Alpes (in French).

https://www.meteoalpes.fr/tempete-en-altitude-avec-chutes-de-neige-tres-abondantes-fortes-precipitations/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We’ve got our own storm here tonight gusting 80/90 mph over the highest tops.

Looks like it will be a big day weather wise on here tomorrow snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
How good is the snow so far this season?
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
How good is the snow so far this season?

I can imagine you missed it due to not enough media coverage. Snow is really good so far - in quantity that is.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 2-01-18 23:44; edited 1 time in total
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element wrote:
On a local level, I've come through Bormio and seen green fields above the town at over 2000m, while all of Livigno just over the ridge has been white at 1800m.

What time of year was this when this happened? April?
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I know it’s the Ski club regurgitating Snow-Forecast but that Zermatt forecast is still quite special...

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Onnem wrote:
südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
How good is the snow so far this season?

I can imagine you missed it due to not enough media coverage. Snow is really good so far - in quantity that is.

Haha I did go to Warth last week where the snow was great (albeit it was a little warm), but I was wondering how the snow is compared to previous decades not the last three drought years. I've been a little worried with the incoming warm fronts coming in for the valleys
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Big thaw due to southerly winds for the next month. Will be early February before any significant new snow will fall to make the green pastures white again😡😡
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Sneachta2013 wrote:
Big thaw due to southerly winds for the next month. Will be early February before any significant new snow will fall to make the green pastures white again😡😡


I don’t really know where to begin with this, but I’ll be polite and just say that that’s both untrue and unhelpful.
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Just arrived for work in Auris(Alpe d'Huez). Blowing a gale, 10 degrees and raining heavily. Sad.
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@howiet, groovy ain’t it.

Gusts of 118kmh already being reported in lowlands of Germany.


http://youtube.com/v/Hce74cEAAaE

Glancing a bit further forward GFS and ECM both have below average temperatures as we approach mid month.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@südtirolistdeutsch, it was a few years ago in a pre christmas trip - pretty much everywhere was terrible, but Livigno got lucky and had decent cover.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
According to météo France forecast for massifs de l'Isère tomorrow is the worst day for rain and high snow/rain limit(2300-2500m)
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Impact of the storm will increase as the day goes on. The forecast was for winds strenthening after midday (for those puzzling why it is not so windy yet). ZAMG concerned that thunderstorms may also be mixed in (these have been part of the storm as it crosses Germany).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
howiet wrote:
According to météo France forecast for massifs de l'Isère tomorrow is the worst day for rain and high snow/rain limit(2300-2500m)


This fills me with sadness
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snow/Rain limit should be down to 1000m by this evening across parts of Austria (Voralberg, Tirol, Salzburg). Tomorrow it then rises again up to 1700m-2200m

In Voralberg and West Tirol, warnings issued for gusts up to 120km/h
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Gusts of 70-80km/h around Lac Leman this morning already. Sure the snow line drops tonight in the west as well, but no good unless you plan a midnight trek in wet snow as Thurs-Fri has been forecast for a while to be a complete washout.

Not much cheer in the models either. Signs of a strong Scandi high developing, so wind could turn to the east and drag in cold air, but with the Atlantic blocked off it will remain dry. Don't see any hope in the reliable timeframe. FI hints at Jan 12 or Jan 15 but not worth much this far out.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Is it really that bad? Looks like it will turn quite cold, and stay cold, again after the weekend?
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Too many doom mongers. Massive base high up. More snow on the 9th and then colder temps and some sun for an epic 2nd half of Jan steep skiing 😉

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@BobinCH, wink
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thought you didn't like lazy use of emoji's rolling eyes

Yes there's a great base above 2000, I should have specified fresh snow, as I've personally zero interest in rock hard steep pistes. Jan 9th isn't supported by ECM or GFS ops, but sure things could improve with the next few runs.

GEM has been out on its own with progressing the Easterly into something very cold and snowy, but am just calling it as I see it right now, overall model outlook is cooler and dry post current storm.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Unutterably horrible today. Lifts closed but you'd have to be mad to want to go up one.....
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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@langball, ?
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langball wrote:
thought you didn't like lazy use of emoji's rolling eyes

Yes there's a great base above 2000, I should have specified fresh snow, as I've personally zero interest in rock hard steep pistes. Jan 9th isn't supported by ECM or GFS ops, but sure things could improve with the next few runs.


The base is much lower than 2000m. We still have 50cm in the garden at 1500m and more due this evening. Tomorrow will do some damage but dump masses more above 2000m and then all we need is a top up on the 8th/9th and happy days are here again. Cheer up 🤣
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pam w wrote:
Unutterably horrible today. Lifts closed but you'd have to be mad to want to go up one.....


Masses of rather wet looking ski school groups no doubt fully agreeing with you here!
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Highest gusts in Vorarlberg as of 12:20

189.9 Furkajoch
153.1 Diedamskopf
148.1 Riefensberg-Hochhäderich
144.8 Mellau-Rossstelle
138.4 Dornbirn-Karren
122.3 Riefensberg
120.7 Damüls-Jägerstüble
117.4 Furx
115.9 Mühlehorn / Walensee
109.4 Sonntag-Stein
104.6 Warth-Schröcken
103.0 Höchsten
95.6 Niederuzwil
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@BobinCH, yes my garden at 1300m also has over 50cm, and I'm very cheery thanks given that I've ridden more powder this season than ever before and it's Jan 3. Still buzzing from the new untracked routes I found yesterday in the heart of the resort.

I am a realist. Short term damage below 2000, and above that will be wet snow or high Avalanche risk. If it's worth popping up to Verbier or Chamonix then one must make such sacrifices. But after 7 weeks of regular fresh snow low down, my back hurts, and the outlook is meh.
Maybe I'm getting spoilt, hadn't even dusted down the board this time last year.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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snowline is dropping - now snowing again in Arc 1800 Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Have a mate and his son out and they'd booked a guide for Wed-Fri as today (Wed) he was taking his wife and part of the family back to Turin and was meeting Christian at the airport and the plan was to come back to this part of the world as less likelihood of road closures due to avy risk etc and we have great forests.

I'd already said I'd bail on today.

Heard a couple of hours ago that Christian said don't worry about today and tomorrow to my mate and that Friday could be ok. He is still however going touring on his own in Nevache today as he needs to do some training and will go there again tomorrow and if he finds conditions are better than forecast he will let us know - how's that for service!

In the mean time looks like a Retour D'Est is on the cards for the weekend onwards
http://www.meteociel.fr/tendances/1750/abries.htm

And in the last hour some of the gusts are probably the strongest I've ever heard and can still see hardy skiers on the slopes!

And @langball, similar scenario here - yesterday did a bonkers descent with complex route finding joined by three PGHM dudes
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Anyone in Ischgl or have an idea where the snow/rain line is?
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clarky999 wrote:
Anyone in Ischgl or have an idea where the snow/rain line is?


https://www.bergfex.com/tirol/wetter/stationen/ischgl/
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clarky999 wrote:
Anyone in Ischgl or have an idea where the snow/rain line is?


appears to be below town looking at the webcams!

http://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/gfsruns.php?select=Ischgl
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Photo Harald Angerer

Hornbahn in Kitzbühel had to be evacuated today. Must have been interesting in these conditions...

http://m.tt.com/panorama/unfall/13848943-91/großeinsatz-für-bergretter-nach-stillstand-der-hornbahn-in-kitzbühel.csp
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http://www.tt.com/panorama/unfall/13848943-91/gro%C3%9Feinsatz-in-kitzb%C3%BChel-sturm-legt-hornbahn-lahm.csp
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http://youtube.com/v/cFRk0FfaQi0

SLF weather outlook for Switzerland.

A very critical avalanche situation will be encountered over a wide area

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#snowpack

Snowpack

As a result of highly intensive snowfall and storm-strength westerly winds on Wednesday, deep, large-sized and wide ranging snowdrift accumulations formed at high altitudes in the Valais and on the northern Alpine Ridge more than anywhere else. These drifted masses will continue to grow in magnitude and spread during the day on Thursday. They are instable.
As a consequence of the overbearing weight of fresh snow and fresh snowdrifts on top of the snowpack, avalanches can fracture at snow layers near to the ground and then sweep along the entire snowpack with them, particularly in southern Valais, in central Grisons and in the Engadine. In the remaining regions of Switzerland, fractures in ground-level layers can be expected only in isolated cases. The major danger there stems from far reaching layers of fresh snow and freshly formed snowdrift accumulations. Nevertheless, avalanaches which fracture below 2000 m can sweep along the entire snowpack, since it has been thoroughly weakened by rainfall.

Observed weather on Wednesday, 03.01.2018

During the night there was snowfall over widespread areas. During the daytime the snowfall became more intense. The snowfall level ascended to 1800 to 2200 m, subsequently descended to intermediate altitudes during the afternoon. In the furthermost southern regions it remained dry.

Fresh snow

By Wednesday afternoon above approximately 2200 m:

northern flank of the Alps, Valais: 20 to 40 cm;

northern Grisons, Lower Engadine, northwestern Ticino: 10 to 20 cm;

elsewhere, 5 to 10 cm.

Overall snowfall since the launch of the New Year above approximately 2200 m:

western Lower Valais, northern Valais west of the Aletsch region: 50 to 70 cm;

western sector of the northern flank of the Alps, remaining regions of the Valais: 25 to 50 cm;

central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, Grisons not including the southern valleys, Val Bedretto: 15 to 30 cm;

elsewhere, less.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between +1 °C in northern regions and -3 °C in southern regions.

Wind

Winds were westerly, blowing at strong to storm-strength over widespread areas, at moderate strength in the central sector of the southern flank of the Alps.

Weather forecast through Thursday, 04.01.2018

Snowfall is anticipated which particularly during the daytime will be both persistent and intensive. Only in the furthermost southern regions is it expected to remain dry. The snowfall level during the night will be at approximately 1000 m, then in the early morning hours it will rapidly ascend to nearly 2200 m in western and northern regions. In the Valais and in Grisons, the snowfall level will ascend after some delay.

Fresh snow

By Thursday evening above approximately 2000 m:

northern flank of the Alps, Valais: 60 to 100 cm; in the Bernese Alps and western part of Lower Valais: as much as 120 cm; [!!!]

northern Grisons, Lower Engadine north of the Inn: 40 to 60 cm;

central Grisons, remaining parts of the Engadine, Val Bedretto: 20 to 40 cm;

remaining parts of northern Ticino, southern valleys of Grisons: 10 to 20 cm;

elsewhere, only a few centimeters.

In the Jura region, snowfall during the night; during the daytime rainfall will extend higher than summit levels.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, +2 °C in the Prealps, about 0 °C in the Alps and in southern regions.

Wind

Winds will be westerly to northwesterly, blowing at strong to storm-strength.
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@clarky999, raining in town around midday, turned to snow about 2pm. Snowed heavily for a few hours. Not snowing now. Lifts completely closed at 2pm with a storm.
A bar day......
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Crazy video from Montafon.

https://www.facebook.com/Wetterwarnung/videos/1603392513087054/

First thing is obviously the chair being flipped about.

Second thing is the skier perched on the pylon who had been rescued from the chairlift...

Looks like a chairlift ride you won’t forget in a hurry...


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Wed 3-01-18 19:10; edited 1 time in total
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@margaret, what town would that be?
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Slightly off topic but a skier was killed in Morillon (Grand Massif) by a falling tree!
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margaret wrote:
@clarky999, raining in town around midday, turned to snow about 2pm. Snowed heavily for a few hours. Not snowing now. Lifts completely closed at 2pm with a storm.
A bar day......


Thanks for the info! (kitenski and puplett too)

Given all that + avi risk 4 and rising may be wiser to abandon my plan (last time I looked freezing level was supposed to stay low 'til afternoon tomorrow)...

zzz wrote:
@margaret, what town would that be?


In response to my question about Ischgl wink
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