The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

A few more bits and pieces on the possible impact of melting Arctic Sea ice.

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic

"There have been many examples of 'stuck' weather patterns during the past few years. Deep troughs in the jet stream hung over the U.S. east coast and Western Europe during the winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, bringing a seemingly endless string of snow storms and teeth-chattering cold. In the early winter of 2011/2012, in contrast, these same areas were under ridges, or northward bulges of the jet stream, which brought unusually warm and snowless conditions over much of North America. At the same time, however, a deep trough sat over Alaska, dumping record snows. In early February this year, the jet stream plunged unusually far southward over Europe, bringing frigid Arctic air and snow to some areas that hadn’t seen those conditions in over half a century"

And a piece from the BBC with Alan Thorpe (from ECM) on similar effects on summer weather.

How melting Arctic ice helped cause poor UK summer

And an update from the NSIDC.

Arctic sea ice falls below 4 million square kilometers

A snowHead

Taking another look at CFS's seasonal outlook (and remembering this is really just for fun), it continues the suggestion of early a +NAO for early winter in November and December (which would tend to see milder than average weather in Europe, storms on a northerly track, with heavier snow/rain favouring the Northern Alps) and a possible -NAO later in winter in January and February (colder weather in Europe and storms on a more southerly track possibly favouring the southern Alps).

CFSv2 forecast monthly z700 anomalies

Anyway here's James Brown.

Director's Cut - James Brown music video - It's Man's Man's Man's World from SHOOT THE BOSS

http://vimeo.com/45052672
[Video by Shoot the Boss]

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Looking like there could be some further snow in the Alps at high altitude mid week. Possibly down to 1800m in places on Wednesday night, Thursday morning.

GFS 06z +84 Jet Stream

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How funny and good would it be if this little bit of snow hung around and occaisionally got topped up till the season kicks in propper? One in the eye for the naysayers.

Please don't tell me it's not going to happen. I'm not listening.

Loving your clips noz - you're a crazy weather-matrix seeing dude and thats for sure. Thank you, keep up the good work.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Interesting read "The Weather Man Is Not a Moron." (though perhaps not the term I would have chosen for the article headline).

Continues to look like there could be snow down to 1800-2000m in places in the Alps midweek, particularly in the eastern Alps.

Hintertux.

Bad Gastein.

And if you're getting married in Manchester (like RLTP) this weekend the weather by the weekend currently looks like improving in comparison to the weather during the coming week (not as warm as the weekend just gone by, but currently looking quite dry and possibly sunny at times).

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ECM's latest monthly update to it's long range seasonal forecast is apparently* showing a +NAO pattern for the coming winter. It's been swinging back and forth a bit, last month it had more of a -NAO pattern. The month before more positive. It is of course consistency which is of most help in building confidence.

CFS continues to show a stronger likelihood for a +NAO early in the season (November/December) and a -NAO as we move through into the second half of winter (January/February).

ENSO forecasts are currently suggesting a weak El Niño, possibly crossing fairly briefly into moderate territory before likely fading as winter progresses.

*I say apparently as I haven't actually seen it, but Matt Hugo provides a helpful commentary on his twitter feed.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

Hi mooney058, the NAO is the North Atlantic Oscillation. In general you have a high pressure system near the Azores and a low pressure system near Iceland. However, their strength and position varies and this can have a big impact on the weather in Europe (and indeed on the other side of the Atlantic) not least because it can influence the position of the jet stream.* The NAO index is derived from measuring the relative pressure over Iceland and Gibralter.

A +NAO typically sees warm and wet westerly winds push across the Atlantic into northern Europe. This means the weather in Northern Europe is often stormy and milder than usual. In southern Europe the strength of the Azores high means less wet weather and cooler than usual temperatures. This can translate in the Alps into more precipitation on the northern side of the Alps. This was very much in evidence in December 2011 and January 2012 when a series of storms brought large amounts of snow to the northern Alps, but it often did not reach the southern Alps.

A -NAO allows cooler weather to push down into northern Europe although often this can be drier. Conversely with the jet stream pushing south wetter and warmer weather tends to effect southern Europe. In the Alps this can mean more snow in the southern Alps. December 2010 (and 2009) was notable for a very - NAO and brought very cold weather to much of northern Europe.

That said as a predictive tool it is very broad brush as the exact weather patterns on the day will define the weather rather than the general trend.

The correlation between El Niño and weather in Europe is as far as I am aware fairly limited or at least difficult to correlate.

*That said the strength and position of the jet stream can also have an impact on the strength and position of pressure systems.

There's more background on ENSO incidentally in one of the links in page 1 of the thread.

For the time being it has dropped slightly to +0.75 according to BOM.

Here's the SLF on the current snowfall in the Alps.

http://www.slf.ch/lawineninfo/lawinenbulletin/nationale_lawinenbulletins/index_EN

"During the night of Tuesday, 11 September, a cold front will sweep over Switzerland, bringing intermittently heavy snowfall. By Wednesday midday, the snowfall level will drop from over 3000 m down to about 1800 m in northern regions and to 2200 m in southern regions. By Wednesday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected above 3000 m: northern flank of the Alps, northern Valais and Lower Valais, 30 to 50 cm; remaining Valais and Grisons, 15 to 30 cm; Ticino, less than 15 cm. At 2000 m, up to 10 cm of snowfall is expected."

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Rather perversely, some of the winters with highly negative pressure anomalies have produced cack seasons in Scotland over the years and winterhighland has collected a lot of stats on pressure anomalies versus skier days over the years that IIRC shows that cold, dry upper air to the north doesn't always make a lot of snowy goodness here. We seem to need a blend for an ideal season, and get the best conditions when patterns swing from one extreme to the other several times during the winter, mixing moist air from the west with cold air from the east.

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http://youtube.com/v/r61oYWMDt6E

all be gone by Friday mind

snow reports

Looking this evening like there could be further snow in the eastern Alps in the middle of next week.

Not winter yet, but you can still dream...

Louis Vuitton - Dream from Stuart A. McIntyre

http://vimeo.com/46429477

You know it makes sense.

A couple of ENSO related pieces.

El Niño update

"... it appears this will be a borderline event. The unpredictable random draw of weather and climate variability will probably play a dominant role in what happens this winter. In other words, I haven't a clue what is going to happen this winter."

[Wasatch Weather Weenies]

And Klaus Wolter's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)

"Stay tuned for the next update by 12 October 2012 (hopefully sooner) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña is clearly over, but the burgeoning El Niño event of 2012 may be shorter-lived than expected, given its current weakness, and an overall environment that appears to favor La Niña conditions since 2006. Nevertheless, it would be unprecedented to see a switch back to La Niña before 2013."

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Here's Brett Anderson from Accuweather on the winter outlook in his Canada weather blog. Much of this is based on the ECM update I mentioned a few days ago.

New clues about the upcoming winter

- Mild winter for Alaska.

- Dry for southern BC and the Pacific Northwest.

- Weak El Niño, peaking by January.

- Returned to idea of +NAO.

CFS has also shifted more towards a +NAO pattern for winter with any -NAO looking more likely for March.

Pressure anomalies

And you can see that in the precipitation model too with higher than average precipitation for northern Europe in winter and warmer than average temperatures.

Precipitation anomalies

Temperature anomalies

A snowHead

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Continues to look good for some further snow around 2000m focussed in the eastern Alps in the middle of next week (Wednesday night).

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Joe Bastardi is tweeting:

"UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what is going on around Alaska pic.twitter.com/EKZBoarx."

Worth noting that this time last year he was suggesting:

"Another harsh winter is expected in China and at least the first half of the winter in North America and Western Europe. More heavy snow will accompany the cold..."

La Nina’s Reprise has important implications globally (19 September 2011)

In fact the first half of winter was generally warmer than average in Western Europe, it was February when the cold came, though obviously the stormy weather in December and January did mean heavy snowfall in the Alps and the US had it's fourth warmest winter on record. China had a cold winter though.

Doesn't mean he won't be right about the coming winter though.

[edited to add link]

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Bastardi with his almost pidgin English is always good for a chuckle. He's quite a ramper when he sees the right set up in the 2-3 week range but seems happy to hang his hat on sea surface temperatures to ramp the British winter.

It's also good fun to look at our very own Met Office's anomaly plots ...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

These are the models that in the past would have formed the platform for the seasonal forecasts that the Met Office withdrew from a year or so back.

Their mid winter plots are linked below.

Pressure anomalies ... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120901/2cat_20120901_mslp_months46_global_deter_public.png

Land temperature anomalies .. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120901/2cat_20120901_sst_months46_global_deter_public.png

Sea temperature anomalies ... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120901/2cat_20120901_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png

Precipitation anomalies ... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120901/2cat_20120901_prec_months46_global_deter_public.png

As per the CFS, no firm signal wrt to the NAO, and like the CFS, in my eyes at least, swings from Arctic to Euro high seem quite possible but there's a solid signal for cooler temperatures than the winter average and, off our NW'ern shores, drier than average. So, no pinning down of synoptic set up but hints of enough northern blocking to suggest a N'ly / E'ly influence ?

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moffatross, looking at CFS (other models are available), it still looks to me like it's weighting the possibility of Greenland blocking (and -NAO) towards the second half of winter and spring.

CFSv2 forecast seasonal z200 anomalies
CFSv2 forecast seasonal z700 anomalies

CFSv2 forecast monthly z200 anomalies
CFSv2 forecast monthly z700 anomalies

Of course a -NAO is hardly the be all and end all, after all it was the conditions which lead to such a +NAO in December 2011 (+2.25) which also brought the heavy snowfall to the Alps in December and January.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

More snow in the Alps on Wednesday evening, looks like it may reach down to 1800m overnight, with the main focus in the eastern Alps (20cm+?). Continuing to refreshen the glaciers.

After all it is free

99 days to Christmas and apparently 9 days till snowmaking begins at Loveland Colorado.

Anyway it's been snowing on and off in parts of Colorado the last few days and still looks good for snow midweek in the eastern Alps.

Some snow above 2000m in parts of the eastern Alps today (Hintertux for one).

ENSO 3.4 has slid down to +0.57 which just keeps it in El Niño territory, but only just.

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Further update from NSIDC.

Arctic sea ice extent settles at record seasonal minimum

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Nozawaonsen,

I am going to the three vallees on the first week of December, fairly high at 2300m.

You got it spot on last year. So - when will it it first dump big time? Will there be a lot of snow waiting for me?

Ideally I would like a week of snow before I get there then a week of sun. Does this look likely??

Many thanks in advance

Brian

snow reports

emwmarine, hmmm... not sure I got it spot on! But we had a lot of fun guessing!

Interesting seasonal update from ZAMG (Austrian Met Office).

ZAMG Saisonprognose

This stretches to December now and it's December where it gets interesting with a 75% probability of colder than average weather in the eastern Alps. That's a really quite significantly strong signal. ZAMG suggest this could be due to high pressure over Russia sending cold air across Europe from the east (and suggest this could be an example of shifts in the weather as a result of the reduction in Arctic ice).

It will of course be interesting to see if this signals develops. In the meantime...

Here's an Opel in some cold weather.

I think that's a Commodore coupe. My Dad had an Opel Record and also a Kadett SR. I remember going down to the south of france in 1972 in it. We had no snow chains in those days though.

You know it makes sense.

p.s. Having looked at all the info that Nozawaonsen has provided, my estimate for the first big snow day (7.5cm+) where snow sticks around over 2000m is 24th November.

It's very sad I have moved snow forecast to my favourites and also the VT web cam. Starting to look on a daily bass and see the gradual reduction in temps.

Hope I didn't leave the window open in the apartment. I have a feeling I did.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A further piece on the potential relationship between Arctic ice reduction and extremes of weather.

Arctic Amplification and Midlatitude Weather
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/arctic-amplification-and-midlatitude.html?m=1

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, once again this year I will be glued to your posts, they are much appreciated keep them coming! snowHead

It's going to be my first season so the more snow the better Very Happy

A snowHead

With the autumn equinox upon us there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the coming week as ex Tropical Storm Nadine makes her influence felt.

It currently looks like we'll see some stormy weather especially in the western Alps on Monday/Tuesday and at the end of the week.

Strong winds and snow above 2800m in the west look likely particularly later in the week, but the detail will depend on the track the remains of Nadine takes.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

nozawaonsen, in Serre Chevalier, it is certainly less warm than it was when we arrived last week, although we've been down to the coast for a few days in between. Rainy and cool this morning, but warmer and sunny this afternoon. Definite autumn feel .

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Interesting piece by Matt Hugo on winter indicators.

Winter 2012/2013 – Thoughts & Analysis

The article is written from the perspective of the UK and it's worth remembering that whilst a more blocked pattern can (depending on how the block sets up) bring very cold weather to Europe, including the Alps, what you really need is a mix of cold weather and precipitation. And depending where the block sets up it can also lead to dry conditions.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

An article from Scientific American from earlier this year.

Extended Forecast: Northern Hemisphere Could Be in for Extreme Winters

Winter weather is more likely to be seriously cold or strangely warm, and less likely than ever to be "normal"

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The El Niño... “is on life support right now,” according to Klaus Wolter of the NOAA. Certainly only just hovering above neutral last week. And perhaps according to some of the more recent CFS output about about to dip below.

CFSv 2 ENSO 3.4

That would mean we saw it retreating back to neutral before an El Niño was formally called.

Although it's less clear on the Met Office output you can certainly see a weakening toggling between August and September.

Met Office ENSO

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Here's ESTOFEX http://www.estofex.org/ on the stormy weather in parts of Europe.

"A Level 2 warning was issued for S/SE France and Northern Italy mainly for excessive rainfall, large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event"

After all it is free

nozawaonsen, ah, that'll have been the building shaking thunder overnight then?

under a new name, I was wondering what it was.

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Towards the end of every month the Met Office produces a three month seasonal look ahead for Contingency Planners. It's focus is clearly the UK, but that does not mean it may not offer some clues to wider trends. This month's update covers October to December, it's an LRF and makes clear that you should treat it with caution, but here's what is has to say about temperatures.

- Weak El Nino starting to disappear by the end of the year.
- Not expected to influence European weather during this period.
- No clear predictive role for Arctic Sea Ice.
- SST's in NW Atlantic higher than normal which can increase colder, blocking patters.
- Possibility of cold easterlies.

"We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year, and they are not expected to influence European and UK weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play some part in determining weather over the UK over the next few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association. Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder, atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern Europe.

The consensus from computer model simulations is for surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of the UK during the three-month period, especially in October. This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds, increasing the risk of colder than average conditions through the period."

And right on cue GFS delivers an FI with high pressure building towards Scandinavia and cold weather being ushered into the Alps from the east towards the end of the first week and start of the second week of October.

Obviously it's just one run and quite likely won't be there later this evening, but maybe a sign of things to come (or maybe not)?

Help!!

The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

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